EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[qesehmk]

Any Shashank Redemption fans?

Write a letter every week until Govt decides to give atleast part of what you want.
Then you write a letter every day until Govt decides to give what you want.

Similarly:

Open the same petition every month (with updates saying, Govt's empty words to last petition does not help in any way) and get to 100K signatures. They will not be giving the same answer after few months.


Just my thought.

Great post!!

Do it methodically .. with discipline ... and don't forget to publicize wherever possible. Sitting idle is going to take you nowhere for sure. You might as well do something.

[Jagan01]

Spec,

You have maintained the trackitt approvals at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011

The EB2ROW approvals are lesser than what they were at the same time last year. I do not understand why the EB2ROW retrogression happened. Either the trackitt to real world representation changed OR there is seriously something wrong and we might be in for a surprise where EB2ROW under utilizes and gives some SO to EB2I. Your take ?

[YTeleven]

I know the 140-EAD petitions came several times before but it never crossed the 62K signs though there are more than 100k affected people in this category.
Here is the new petition, please sign it:
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pet...0k-green-cards

I urge our F1-OPT friends to take this URL to their groups and sign it to cross 100k Signs before 10-Aug-2016.
You might think how is this useful to you as this is related to 140-EAD.
But after 2 years from now you will be in H1 Q and eventually in GC Q with 140, you will then need this desperately.

[tatikonda]

As of today 77,401 signed. only 22.5k signatures required.
please help in signing this petition.

I know the 140-EAD petitions came several times before but it never crossed the 62K signs though there are more than 100k affected people in this category.
Here is the new petition, please sign it:
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pet...0k-green-cards

I urge our F1-OPT friends to take this URL to their groups and sign it to cross 100k Signs before 10-Aug-2016.
You might think how is this useful to you as this is related to 140-EAD.
But after 2 years from now you will be in H1 Q and eventually in GC Q with 140, you will then need this desperately.

[whereismygc]

As of today 77,401 signed. only 22.5k signatures required.
please help in signing this petition.

Tatikonda / YT

Would you like us to blast an email to WhereismyGC users?

If so please draft content and reply right here.

[Jagan01]

Tatikonda / YT

Would you like us to blast an email to WhereismyGC users?

If so please draft content and reply right here.

I personally think that stating a lie in the petition is not good.

The petition states "Thousands of green cards are being wasted every year, with an estimated 500,000 green cards wasted so far, while the highly-skilled workers continue to wait in a queue that may take 20-50 years.".

"are being" is present progressive tense. I do not believe EB green cards are wasted these days. They used to be wasted. I hope someone corrects it.

[qesehmk]

It may not be a lie. As I said - last year in 2015 - one can't reconcile EB3-I and EB2-I inventory reduction vs visas allocated. There is something fishy there. I do believe that is wastage.

I do not know whoever wrote that petition has actually done the calculation or is just shooting it off in the hope that it will stick.

So those claims may be unsubstantiated but I do not believe they are lies.

I personally think that stating a lie in the petition is not good.

The petition states "Thousands of green cards are being wasted every year, with an estimated 500,000 green cards wasted so far, while the highly-skilled workers continue to wait in a queue that may take 20-50 years.".

"are being" is present progressive tense. I do not believe EB green cards are wasted these days. They used to be wasted. I hope someone corrects it.

[EB3Iwaiting]

It may not be a lie. As I said - last year in 2015 - one can't reconcile EB3-I and EB2-I inventory reduction vs visas allocated. There is something fishy there. I do believe that is wastage.

Interesting you say that. I do remember that when the 2015 report came out originally, Section 5 "Immigrant Visas issued..." was not published. We all thought it was because of the lawsuit going on at that time. Later when it did come out, we all saw the misallocation of EB3 Gcs to EB2.

[qesehmk]

Interesting you say that. I do remember that when the 2015 report came out originally, Section 5 "Immigrant Visas issued..." was not published. We all thought it was because of the lawsuit going on at that time. Later when it did come out, we all saw the misallocation of EB3 Gcs to EB2.

Try to reconcile visas allocated vs inventory reduction. I'd be curious what you find. I have done that. But want to know if others see what I see.

[Spectator]

Interesting you say that. I do remember that when the 2015 report came out originally, Section 5 "Immigrant Visas issued..." was not published. We all thought it was because of the lawsuit going on at that time. Later when it did come out, we all saw the misallocation of EB3 Gcs to EB2.

EB3Iwaiting,

Table V is almost always the last to be published and has been as much as 2 months later in previous years. There was nothing new this year.

Try to reconcile visas allocated vs inventory reduction. I'd be curious what you find. I have done that. But want to know if others see what I see.

Q,

I'm not sure where you are going with this.

I've also carried out this exercise some time ago and the EB2/EB3-I numbers reconcile to within about 0.2k cases over 14.3k total approvals for FY2015.

The exercise also suggested reductions in the EB3-I inventory related to porting in FY2015 was about 3.8k, split 25% for cases within the COD that EB3-I eventually reached for the FY (22DEC04) and 75% for cases beyond the COD that EB3-I eventually reached.

[saagar_is_cool]

EB3Iwaiting,

Table V is almost always the last to be published and has been as much as 2 months later in previous years. There was nothing new this year.

Q,

I'm not sure where you are going with this.

I've also carried out this exercise some time ago and the EB2/EB3-I numbers reconcile to within about 0.2k cases over 14.3k total approvals for FY2015.

The exercise also suggested reductions in the EB3-I inventory related to porting in FY2015 was about 3.8k, split 25% for cases within the COD that EB3-I eventually reached for the FY (22DEC04) and 75% for cases beyond the COD that EB3-I eventually reached.

Spec and experts,

Now that 2016 turned out to be a damp squib, is there any hope from October onwards for EB2I ? I am EB2I with PD of April 17 2009 and got EAD in Sep 2014 and have been waiting since then. Any projections for hope for upcoming FY17 that starts from October 2016 ?

[Spectator]

Spec and experts,

Now that 2016 turned out to be a damp squib, is there any hope from October onwards for EB2I ? I am EB2I with PD of April 17 2009 and got EAD in Sep 2014 and have been waiting since then. Any projections for hope for upcoming FY17 that starts from October 2016 ?

saager,

I am relatively pessimistic for at least the first half of FY2017 (who'd have thought that of me!). None of the issues affecting EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 or EB5 that made FY2016 so difficult will have changed substantially. **

PERM certifications have continued at a higher than normal rate to date. Given there is then a 6-12 month delay from certification to obtaining LPR, we might expect ROW approvals to remain high through at least H1 FY2017. The graph below might help to explain what I am saying, based on a 7 month delay e.g a PERM certification in July 2016 might be reflected as an I-485 approval in February 2017.

Attachment 1060
As a side note, it's interesting that EB2-ROW approvals pretty much dried up on Trackitt after the August VB was published. That suggests the FAD was internally retrogressed immediately.

Eventually, the level of certifications should subside as the certification times reduce. When that happens, there will be a lag before the benefit is seen as lower EB2-ROW I-485 approvals.

In a FY where there is little spillover, it is really quite difficult for EB2-I to make meaningful progress. There is always going to be a certain amount of porting regardless of COD movement. In a low spillover FY, this represents a much higher % of available visas, which in turn hinders forward movement of the COD.

We need to see the next two USCIS inventories to assess the situation better.

** The EB5 Regional Center program is due to sunset at the end of FY2016. Since almost all EB5 visas are issued under this program, sunsetting it would potentially release a large number of EB5 visas. The sense of those speaking about the possibility, is that Congress will reauthorize the program for a short period while they pass tougher EB5 laws. Tougher laws (e.g. increasing the requirement from $1.0M and $0.5M to $1.2M and $0.8M might lower the number of future applications). However, there are already several years worth of pending applications, so no benefit would be derived in the immediate future.

My thoughts anyway - might not be worth much.

[Jagan01]

Spec,

As per the trackitt approvals data that you maintain, we are seeing lower number of approvals in all categories. What do you think about eB2ROW. They are currently utilizing less than what they did last year. If the trackitt to real world ratio is the same as last year, then we should get some SO from EB2ROW. Should't we ? Whats your take ?

[Spectator]

Spec,

As per the trackitt approvals data that you maintain, we are seeing lower number of approvals in all categories. What do you think about eB2ROW. They are currently utilizing less than what they did last year. If the trackitt to real world ratio is the same as last year, then we should get some SO from EB2ROW. Should't we ? Whats your take ?

Jagan,

The fact that the EB2-ROW approvals dropped off immediately the August VB was announced is more indicative that actual approvals are higher than last year's Trackitt ratio would suggest. Therefore it's more likely that the Trackitt ratio is somewhat different this FY.

If spare visas were to be available to EB2-I in September, the FAD would have to move sufficiently far forward to use them. Everything CO has said to date does not suggest movement other than one week ahead of where EB3-I moves.

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for miracles.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,
Everything CO has said to date does not suggest movement other than one week ahead of where EB3-I moves.

I have more faith in your trackitt data and lesser in CO's comments.

I am still hopeful that there might be some SO, or there will be an avalanche of EB2ROW approvals in September. I do not think that they have used up the annual quota for EB2ROW.

Thanks for your inputs.

[eb2visa]

Interesting report

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42048.pdf

[geterdone]

Interesting report

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42048.pdf

Interesting indeed. Is this something they do every 2-3 years? Is this simply a waste of time?

[gten20]

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...mber-2016.html

[jimmys]

I have more faith in your trackitt data and lesser in CO's comments.

I am still hopeful that there might be some SO, or there will be an avalanche of EB2ROW approvals in September. I do not think that they have used up the annual quota for EB2ROW.

Thanks for your inputs.

Unfortunately the CO was right. He always see the data that we don't(or assume). I think the accelerated EB2ROW PERM approvals are eating up EB2ROW numbers. Let's look forward FY '17.

[vedu]

Unfortunately the CO was right. He always see the data that we don't(or assume). I think the accelerated EB2ROW PERM approvals are eating up EB2ROW numbers. Let's look forward FY '17.

One good outcome of this VB is that EB3 and EB2 India will never ever see year 2004 again. The glass is always half full! Now let's see if we can bury year 2005 for good in FY' 17!

[qesehmk]

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...mber-2016.html

This is a bad VB because it keeps EB1IC EB2ROW retrogressed which certainly is very harmful for any spillover prospects for EB2I in 2017.

[vyruss]

This is a bad VB because it keeps EB1IC EB2ROW retrogressed which certainly is very harmful for any spillover prospects for EB2I in 2017.

Wow..that is a real ominous prediction coming from you Q!

[Raj0687]

This is a bad VB because it keeps EB1IC EB2ROW retrogressed which certainly is very harmful for any spillover prospects for EB2I in 2017.

I think, we can stop dreaming about EB1 spillover for good.
In fact EB1IC inventory will keep piling up here on and we should see EB1IC retrogression even earlier (around April) in FY17.

[iatiam]

All,

It is now clear that there is no way to get out of this backlog mess unless we come together and take action. As many of you know, bill HR213 is about to be introduced in congress. It is the same as HR3012 which eliminates per country caps and brings fairness to the immigration process. There is a lot of momentum for this bill. If you want to be part of these advocacy efforts please send me a PM and I will be able to connect you with the right people.

Lets get this done!

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I think, we can stop dreaming about EB1 spillover for good.
In fact EB1IC inventory will keep piling up here on and we should see EB1IC retrogression even earlier (around April) in FY17.

Do not disagree at all.