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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #1776
    Quote Originally Posted by GCwaiting View Post
    Thanks for your explanation. I was thinking about this.
    Yes the approvals this year for EB3-ROW could be more than that of last year. Last year almost 4K Visas of EB3-I got diverted to EB2-I. This year that possibility is not there.
    So the total visas to EB3-I could still be the same as last year even though we have less visas available in EB3-ROW for spillover.

    Can the have the same Visas to EB3-I as last year ?
    What are your thoughts here ?
    ---------------------

    The rfes are still not coming.I am thinking that CO prediction will prove true of early 2005 date

  2. #1777
    Quote Originally Posted by asaxena2 View Post
    ---------------------

    The rfes are still not coming.I am thinking that CO prediction will prove true of early 2005 date
    waiting to hear if YTEleven has anything to say...

  3. #1778
    Let us see , what the visa bulletin will tell us ?

  4. #1779
    August Bulletin is out..

    EB1 India 01JAN10
    EB2 India 15NOV04
    EB3 India 08NOV04

    EB1-EB2-EB3 China 01JAN10

  5. #1780
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    August Bulletin is out..

    EB1 India 01JAN10
    EB2 India 15NOV04
    EB3 India 08NOV04

    EB1-EB2-EB3 China 01JAN10
    Personally, I think the other movements and potential trends described in the VB are more revealing:

    D. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED FOURTH (E4) AND CERTAIN RELIGIOUS WORKERS (SR) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

    As readers were advised in the May Visa Bulletin number 92, there has been extremely high demand in the E4 and SR categories, primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, this has now required the implementation of E4 and SR Application Final Action Dates for India, which has reached its per-country limit. This action will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2016 annual limits.
    The India E4 and SR dates will become CURRENT for October.

    E. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE CHINA AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIRST (E1) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

    Readers were advised in item F of the July Visa Bulletin number 94, that it would be necessary to impose a date for these two countries no later than September. The continued high level of demand for E1 numbers for USCIS adjustment of status applicants has required the establishment of a date for August. This has been done in an attempt to hold number use within the Worldwide E1 annual limit. The E1 date for these two countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2017.

    F. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE WORLDWIDE, EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, MEXICO, AND PHILIPPINES EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND (E2) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

    Readers were advised in item F of the July Visa Bulletin number 94, that it was likely that a date would be imposed by September. Continued high demand for numbers for USCIS adjustment of status applicants has required the establishment of a date for August. This action has been required to hold number use within the Worldwide E2 annual limit. The date for these countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2017.

    G. VISA AVAILABILITY

    Number use in the Worldwide F2A and F3 preference categories has increased dramatically, and is quickly approaching those fiscal year 2016 annual limits. Therefore, it may be necessary to retrogress those final application dates for the month of September. Any retrogression in the F2A and F3 preference categories would be temporary, with those dates returning to the latest reached during FY-2016 when the October dates are announced.
    The retrogression of EB2-WW to 01FEB14 seems to seal the deal about any possible SO to EB2-I from any source in FY2016.

    The warnings about various FB categories suggests that CO will, again, properly use the full FB allocation and there will be virtually no spare visas available to EB in FY2017.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  6. #1781
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Personally, I think the other movements and potential trends described in the VB are more revealing:


    The retrogression of EB2-WW to 01FEB14 seems to seal the deal about any possible SO to EB2-I from any source in FY2016.

    The warnings about various FB categories suggests that CO will, again, properly use the full FB allocation and there will be virtually no spare visas available to EB in FY2017.
    So, I guess that's it for US immigration for the rest of us. Those who have gotten their GCs, good for them. The rest of us in 2008, 2009 and beyond who do not even have EADs yet should Just move on. Those dates are not going to see the light of day for a long long time. Would you agree?

  7. #1782
    Q, just checking to see when will the forecast on whereismygc be updated?
    EB2I ; PD: August 13 2010; Filed 485: ??; RD: ??; ND: ??; FP: ??; EAD/AP Approval:??; 485 Approval:??

  8. #1783

    Rigged System

    Quote Originally Posted by derekjbj View Post
    Q, just checking to see when will the forecast on whereismygc be updated?
    The whole system has been rigged especially in the last one year. No meaningful data, so even if there is spillover they would retrogress the date!

  9. #1784
    Pandit
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    Why EB3-I is not moved? That means no SO for EB3-I?

  10. #1785
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    Why EB3-I is not moved? That means no SO for EB3-I?
    Because as per rule, someone from ROW who has filed in 2015 should get GC first than someone from India who has filed in 2004. All in the name of "diversity".

    The faster PERM certifications sealed the deal this year for EB3I. The only question is, will EB3ROW be able to sustain this demand now that PERMs stuck in the pipeline are cleared? If Indians take around 75% of H1Bs, where will all the EB3ROWs continue to come from?

  11. #1786

    Hillary's Stand on Immigration

    Not to distract any one from the disappointing VB, but here is an interesting piece on Hillary's position on immigration,
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/the-t...just-said.html

    Essentially Silicon valley needs more tech slaves and she will not allow even that, until all the illegal immigrants are "regularized". If she becomes the president, it will be more of the same Obama's dysfunctional stance.

    Rejoice!

    Iatiam

  12. #1787
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Not to distract any one from the disappointing VB, but here is an interesting piece on Hillary's position on immigration,
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/the-t...just-said.html

    Essentially Silicon valley needs more tech slaves and she will not allow even that, until all the illegal immigrants are "regularized". If she becomes the president, it will be more of the same Obama's dysfunctional stance.

    Rejoice!

    Iatiam
    Democrat's policy is going to be the same till election. Because they want latino votes. But once elected, they may change the stance. I think Hillary is much more sensible person in the lines of her husband. Anyways under GOP nobody is going to get anything. So I still support democrats as far as immigration goes.

  13. #1788
    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    Democrat's policy is going to be the same till election. Because they want latino votes. But once elected, they may change the stance. I think Hillary is much more sensible person in the lines of her husband. Anyways under GOP nobody is going to get anything. So I still support democrats as far as immigration goes.
    GCQ,

    How long do you think it will be before Hillary will change her stance and support high-skilled immigration? The election is in Nov 2016 and she will be in office in January 2017. I am of course assuming a high chance of her becoming the president.

    We can perhaps re-visit this thread and see how it went.

    BTW, here is a question that was asked in Quora, a seemingly good website. The question was asked to Ms. Clinton as part of her "session" where she answers question posted earlier.

    https://www.quora.com/Inhumanely-lon...n-do-to-fix-it

    Interestingly, she chose not to answer it.


    Regards

    Iatiam

  14. #1789
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    GCQ,

    How long do you think it will be before Hillary will change her stance and support high-skilled immigration? The election is in Nov 2016 and she will be in office in January 2017. I am of course assuming a high chance of her becoming the president.

    We can perhaps re-visit this thread and see how it went.

    BTW, here is a question that was asked in Quora, a seemingly good website. The question was asked to Ms. Clinton as part of her "session" where she answers question posted earlier.

    https://www.quora.com/Inhumanely-lon...n-do-to-fix-it

    Interestingly, she chose not to answer it.


    Regards

    Iatiam
    I don't think anything will happen irrespective of who comes to power. I think Q has been always right that the best chance is to fight it in the court arguing discrimination. The question is who will take up this challenge. It may be a long shot but I think the best.

  15. #1790
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    GCQ,

    How long do you think it will be before Hillary will change her stance and support high-skilled immigration? The election is in Nov 2016 and she will be in office in January 2017. I am of course assuming a high chance of her becoming the president.

    We can perhaps re-visit this thread and see how it went.

    BTW, here is a question that was asked in Quora, a seemingly good website. The question was asked to Ms. Clinton as part of her "session" where she answers question posted earlier.

    https://www.quora.com/Inhumanely-lon...n-do-to-fix-it

    Interestingly, she chose not to answer it.


    Regards

    Iatiam
    From what we have seen so far, I don't see how things can improve on immigration front. Democrats had majority in both Senate and House, they didn't even try to fix immigration. Obama care was their priority. Then we had Dem president with GOP house and senate. Again nothing happened. The only thing that is left to try is GOP president with GOP house and Senate. With Trump being GOP candidate and the right wing tilt of GOP, I don't see Trump becoming president. Is hope lost completely ? No. Like cricket, anything is possible in politics. Hillary is smart, also she is the wife of a president who gave us AC21. So I have hope. No idea how soon it is going to happen or whether it will ever happen.

  16. #1791
    Since a democratic WH, house and senate didn't work, I think I am ready for a republican WH, house and senate. Absolutely not a fan of Trump at all. But hey, what's there to lose other than what we are facing right now.

    The biggest difference between the current administration and the previous ones is that the previous one's had an inclination to work with congress to get things done. So President Bush brought forth the last effort in 2007,
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compre...rm_Act_of_2007

    At that time democrats were holding both house and senate.

    When President Clinton signed AC21 to law, republicans were holding both house and senate.

    Part of being a leader is willingness to work with both sides of the aisle. Unfortunately, we haven't seen it with this administration.

  17. #1792
    I have seen a video in which Immigration lawyer (Rahul reddy ) from Reddy & Neumann, P.C seen as pooling H1B employers (collecting money ) and encouraging them to fight against immigration reforms. This appears to be one of the reasons why USCIS proposed - Filing dates have gone back in infamous October 2015 Visa Bulletin.

    Please see if this is legal or not.
    several people are adversely effected by this process.
    Please share this ...

    https://youtu.be/uWRzl6_GARQ

  18. #1793
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Since a democratic WH, house and senate didn't work, I think I am ready for a republican WH, house and senate. Absolutely not a fan of Trump at all. But hey, what's there to lose other than what we are facing right now.

    The biggest difference between the current administration and the previous ones is that the previous one's had an inclination to work with congress to get things done. So President Bush brought forth the last effort in 2007,
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compre...rm_Act_of_2007

    At that time democrats were holding both house and senate.

    When President Clinton signed AC21 to law, republicans were holding both house and senate.

    Part of being a leader is willingness to work with both sides of the aisle. Unfortunately, we haven't seen it with this administration.
    Trump will do what he likes; he won't work with either dems and reps

  19. #1794
    Anyone saw this video ? please see this video and see how greedy companies & lawyers trying to stop/delay immigration reforms. specifically new filing date


    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    I have seen a video in which Immigration lawyer (Rahul reddy ) from Reddy & Neumann, P.C seen as pooling H1B employers (collecting money ) and encouraging them to fight against immigration reforms. This appears to be one of the reasons why USCIS proposed - Filing dates have gone back in infamous October 2015 Visa Bulletin.

    Please see if this is legal or not.
    several people are adversely effected by this process.
    Please share this ...

    https://youtu.be/uWRzl6_GARQ

  20. #1795
    Hi everyone - Though I have been a regular visitor of Q blog, I have always refrained from posting on this forum as my prediction skills are not good. I thought I will register today and post my thoughts here as I feel very bad for whats going on in Immigration realm, especially EB2. Current situation for EB2 applicants is much worse than what a Criminal OR an Illegal Immigrant goes through in this country. They atleast know that they have done something wrong and are prepared to pay the price. But what EB2 is going through is unprecedented and if am not wrong this started from 2014 onwards. Though I was lucky to scrape thru in 2013 window to get my GC, MY wife is still stuck with a 2010 Feb PD. Even after living in this country for 15+ years I am still made to watch for Visa bulletin every month. I know I am in a better situation than some of my other friends who missed the boat, but my heart goes out to everyone who is looking at this current situation. Back in 2013 we atleast had the hope that the dates will move atleast a year every year, but whats we are seeing now is a 1 month movement or maybe even less than that every year. Someone on this forum put it the right way "Is this the end of US Immigration for all ?" . I personally do not think so. We software folks from India are smart, no question about that and cud do a bit more, I am ready to pitch in if anyone has any ideas. I personally feel that filing a mass lawsuit fighting this discrimination and highlighting the things that have gone wrong earlier might help us here. Also, as someone else on this forum said, I believe Hillary is smart to fix things and hope Dems control both the House and Senate to end this nonsense.

  21. #1796
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    Anyone saw this video ? please see this video and see how greedy companies & lawyers trying to stop/delay immigration reforms. specifically new filing date
    This video is no longer available and taken out because of copy right issues.

  22. #1797
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    This video is no longer available and taken out because of copy right issues.
    It's available under different user names.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVxXqAi-y3c

  23. #1798
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    It's available under different user names.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVxXqAi-y3c
    Looks like this is not the correct video, the correct one should have the Rahul's presentation on the impact of the original I-140 EAD to the employers and how to lobby/screw up the rule.

    Looks like he removed the video every where on the web, If any body has it, please upload and share it.

  24. #1799
    Quote Originally Posted by Raj0687 View Post
    Looks like this is not the correct video, the correct one should have the Rahul's presentation on the impact of the original I-140 EAD to the employers and how to lobby/screw up the rule.

    Looks like he removed the video every where on the web, If any body has it, please upload and share it.
    Everyone knows now so it doesn't matter. Now it's time to update Itellisofttech and Rahul Reddy's reviews on google. check those out and we should add more.

  25. #1800
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    Everyone knows now so it doesn't matter. Now it's time to update Itellisofttech and Rahul Reddy's reviews on google. check those out and we should add more.
    Sorry can you elaborate that? I completely missed this conversation.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

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