Does anyone have a summary of the AILA monthly check in with CO this month?
Does anyone have a summary of the AILA monthly check in with CO this month?
http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-e...and-september/Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
"Based on current usage, there should be sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers worldwide to enable moderate forward movement in India EB-3 in the month of September."
The words 'sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers' sounds encouraging. What to interpret of 'moderate forward movement'. Will March-2005 be cleared? What do gurus here predict will be the date by sept-end for EB3-I? Please do reply.
Without transparency about numbers it indicates that USCIS is not being entirely honest with the applicants.
It doesn't take rocket science to maintain immigration statistics on GC. Only people who are afraid of truth do not disclose.
Looks like there will be a cut-off date for EB1 India in August bulletin.
https://twitter.com/immigrationgirl/...425600?lang=en
Those people who moved to India in hopes of coming back and filing for EB1 might have to change plans now, at least for some time. I personally know of a few people who took such deals from their employers. Their negotiation power lied in taking up some unpopular positions in India (one guy took a job which required 100% travel) in return for a promise to return back and file EB1. Short-term pain but long-term gain.
This might not bode very well for EB2/3 India as well since all SO will now go to EB1 (can any one confirm this?). Which means all EB levels for India are equally screwed.
Fun, Fun, Fun
Iatiam
Your SO calculation is not right. Only vertical SO from EB1/EB4/EB5 would go to EB1 now instead of EB2-I. But horizontal SO would go to the individual categories first. As example SO from EB3ROW would go to EB3-I and not to EB1.
Thanks
Suva,
Thanks. So the implications would be different now. Rather than EB1 sucking up all SO, there is some hope for EB2I to get SO from EB2ROW. Good to know that.
Iatiam
It's not unexpected and only for the remainder of the FY.
All of EB1 will become current again from October.
The retrogression will also affect China, since they will also have already exceeded 7% and be relying on FA within EB1. Since Cut Off Dates have already been established in EB4 & EB5, we know those categories should not provide any spare numbers to EB1.
As Suva said, it doesn't affect either EB2 or EB3 FA availability, since there is no provision under the INA for these visas to FU to EB1.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
It looks like going forward EB1 becomes Eb2, EB2 become EB3 and EB3 becomes EB1 for India & China .
Scene for Aug & Sept....
EB1 - India & China will have cut-off dates - So no visas for Aug & Sept.
EB2-I will move 1 week more than EB3 - So no visas for Aug & Sept.
EB2-China & EB3-China - CO has already indicated that dates will nit move.
EB3 ROW - almost current - CO has acknowledged that there will be SO to EB3-I
Eb3 ROW - Co says there is high demand - should get all their quota.
That leaves only EB3-I - CO is saying that there will be sufficient visas to have moderate movement.
The question is to whom will the visas be allotted in Aug & Sept ?
Can we expect good movement in EB3-I?
If EB1I dates are indeed retrogressed/have cut-off in Aug/Sep VB, then it will be very interesting to see what happens next year. Technically CO should then only be allocating the EB1I allocation (approx 2800) until the SO season for FY17 and not allot any FA to EB1I until the SO season. If that does happen then EB1I may see a cut-off date soon after being current in Oct 2016.
The above scenario can lead to EB1I applications reducing as people will not be able to apply concurrently and that might get some relief to EB2I in FY17.
I hope EBIC is choked really badly as it is high time that justice needs to be done. Some users on this forum might find my statement offending but the truth is that EB1C has consistently abused the system in the name of "international managers". The above is my opinion and everyone is entitled to theirs.
The sad part is that truly deserving EB1A and EB1B will also suffer because of the abuse by EB1C.
Jagan,
I doubt that's what will happen.
With the almost certainty of large numbers of spare visas available as FA within EB1, there's no need to allocate purely against the 7% limits for EB1-C and EB1-I.
CO will use historical data to decide whether a COD is necessary.
That's going to show that ROW/M/P use about 23k EB1 visas per FY, leaving 17k visas available for China and India in EB1 (11k FA).
India and China have used about 19k in each of the last 2 FY. Prior to that, it was below 17k. The numbers for EB1-C/ have risen steadily over the years, whereas ROW/M/P numbers have fallen.
Since EB1 will only have to have been retrogressed once (in FY2016), CO will likely leave the dates Current for FY2017 and only retrogress them in FY2017 if necessary. That's likely to be quite late in the FY again.
If the increased demand in EB1 for India is sustained (or increases further) in FY2017, then CO may have to consider a small sustained retrogression for EB1-C/I in FY2018.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
CO tried relying on historical data for EB2ROW usage in FY15 and that did not play out well. He ended up over-allocating to EB2I and was aggressive in applying in SO.
He has learnt his lesson and has gone very cautious this year. The same lesson will apply to EB1I as well. I personally think that CO will be less aggressive and apply lesser FA to EB1I in the first 3 quarters and would leave most of the work to be done in the last quarter. If that does happen then it will be too late for EB1I to consume the FA from EB1ROW/M/P and that will be a major relief for EB2I.
I know I am being optimistic.
Spec,
I just went to the first page of predictions and looked at your numbers. When you wrote the post you were predicting 7-11k visas for EB2I. Are the numbers still valid? Or are we going to get much less than what you predicted.
Also is your prediction of EB3I going to 2006 still valid.
Many thanks
Iatiam
Iatam,
Absolutely not.
They were initial thoughts from October and are no longer valid. I'll update it to reflect reality.
I thought I had put a warning about the potential (at that time) for EB2-ROW to increase because of the underlying PERM certifications, but I see I did not.
Given I had warned that EB4 use was exploding and that EB1 & EB2 were likely to use close to their allocation, the numbers wouldn't add up to 7-11k anyway. My bad.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
can anyone update EB3 predictions? all forums have been silent and understandably so as there is no new info and/or rfes...
Hi Spec,
Please include your predictions for EB3-I also.
Spec,
I see that you have updated the numbers. Thanks.
Is there any logical reason why the visa demands are increasing for every category. EB1 - I understand. EB2 - not sure why, other than the better employment picture. EB4 - did we have too many religious workers trying to get to the US. EB5 - the Chinese stock market crash might be one reason but is the demand increasing this year as well.
Iatiam
Iatiam,
EB1 has always been close to using all their numbers and extra visas from FB, EB4 and EB5 have saved retrogression at year end in the past.
Probably the main factor for increased EB2-ROW numbers this FY is the shortening of PERM processing times and OFLC increased productivity.
At the same, ROW itself has, based on average numbers, only contributed a few thousand extra visas from the base allocation. Philippines average contribution is 1,000 and Mexico's about 1,600.
The big contributors in the past were FB, EB4 and EB5. Currently, all of these sources have dried up.
It is also the case that ROW PERM numbers are increasing from the low number they reached in 2010. My personal belief is that a near current date for ROW/Mexico in EB3 will lead to increased numbers of Consular Processed cases and numbers of EB3-Other Worker cases. These are not going to be represented within any Trackitt numbers. Like India, no amount of retrogression will slow applications from EB3-P, due to the large numbers of RN and PT wishing to come to the USA. These are exempt from PERM and will not reflect in those figures.
EB5' s contribution disappeared several years ago. I-526 applications still continue at a high level and the processing time for an I-526 is now 16.4 months. The backlog of I-526 at the end of Q2 was 20,235. At the present I-526 approval % and dependent number, that represents 36.7k immigrant visas in the queue.
The EB4 situation is caused primarily because of the unaccompanied minors crisis on the southern border. These translate to increased Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJ) cases under EB4. India's use within EB4 is predominantly driven by Other Religious Workers IMO.
The situation will ease somewhat as PERM certifications slow. There have been recent warnings that PERM certification times will increase due to labor shortages at OFLC
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Thank you for that detailed explanation. If I am reading it correct, the state of US economy only has a minimal impact on SO. One-off, Knightian events have a larger contribution to it. For example, given every thing else being the same, the south border crisis and Chinese stock market crash are not events that happen every day. So do you reckon that the SO would actually increase from these categories in the near future.
Also, do you have any guidance on SO from FB quota?
Iatiam
The immigration system certainly isn't immune to the state of the US economy. The 2008/2009 crash had a significant effect on PERM certifications at that time for all Countries.
In general however, my personal view is that other events have positively impacted EB2-I in the past and negatively impacted them now as well as a recovery of the economy.
If PERM certifications slow, then it should be beneficial to the SO situation, at least in the short term. That was going to happen anyway, regardless of any OFLC problems. Currently, they are adjudicating cases faster than new applications, resulting in faster adjudication times and a reduction in the backlogs. Underlying that is a general drift upwards of total PERM applications. I'm not sure where that is heading in terms of future consequences.
There should never be any SO from FB to EB. All Countries and Categories are retrogressed in FB. Even if some ever became Current, the SO rules within FB should ensure those visas are used elsewhere within FB. There is some scope within the overall 7% limit to allow greater use in EB, but let's leave that out of the equation. FB-India is so close to using its allocation of FB visas (mainly in FB4) that it isn't really an issue.
These are my personal views as I see the situation. Others, including yourself, may disagree. I fully respect that and wouldn't argue against a contrary opinion. Mine is a necessarily simplistic view of an extremely complicated issue where quality information is a rare thing.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Hi Spec
Thanks for the info.
Can you please throw some light how this will adversely impact SO to EB3-I in FY'16 (only 2 months Aug & sept remain)?
CO has stated "Based on current usage, there should be sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers worldwide to enable moderate forward movement in India EB-3 in the month of September".
What in your opinion would be the movement for EB3-I in FY'16.
I've said many times that I think forecasting EB3 is far more difficult than forecasting EB2. I'm hesitant to reply to this question. Here goes anyway!
At present, Trackitt approvals for EB3-ROW are marginally higher than they were at this time last FY. Currently, there is a small but definite increase in EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt month on month. The total number for FY2016 is set to match or exceed those seen in FY2015, when EB3-ROW received 17k approvals. It's impossible to predict Mexico or Philippines, but it's fairly safe to assume that EB3-P will see a large number of approvals, limited only by use in other categories.
Trackitt is not going to capture any increase in Consular Processed cases IMO - those people do not frequent Trackitt in great numbers. So there is a possibility that the near Current status of EB3-ROW has increased the number of CP approvals. The PERM data suggests an increase in EB3-Other Worker cases where the beneficiary is abroad. Though these are limited to 5k per year out of the total EB3 allocation, in FY2015 only about 2k were used. ROW used about 1k and Mexico 0.3k. There's plenty of room for more approvals.
CO has the most information. He has predicted movement of EB3-I to "early" 2005 by the end of the FY. Although CO has historically been very conservative, that is still probably the best data point. There's simply no reliable information available. Fairly soon, it will just become too late to issue RFE for later dates and process them within the current FY. If the dates were set to move beyond March 2005, then the following months have very few cases and just a few hundred could move the dates to "mid" 2005 and 1k could move the dates to "late" 2005.
Having said the above, I have very little confidence in it. Past history has seen very late movements for EB3-I and the numbers required to make quite large movements of the COD are very moderate.
Frankly, it could be anything, which I know is not a satisfactory reply.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec,
Thanks for answering. Hope dates move at lest another 6 to 8 months.
Thanks for your explanation. I was thinking about this.
Yes the approvals this year for EB3-ROW could be more than that of last year. Last year almost 4K Visas of EB3-I got diverted to EB2-I. This year that possibility is not there.
So the total visas to EB3-I could still be the same as last year even though we have less visas available in EB3-ROW for spillover.
Can the have the same Visas to EB3-I as last year ?
What are your thoughts here ?
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