EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[suninphx]

i agree with Q that Eb1C is least of our problems but in response to Q, I guess this is easy for people to complain and get resolved! imagine trying to get country quota removed or dependents removed or recapture wasted visas! hence the rant against Eb1C

Are you saying if I don't agree with any of the current policy or the way GC are being given out I should not complain? Doesn't sound logical to me.

[anuprab]

EB3Iwaiting - i think lawsuit will screw us further. any idea why when the admin itself had recapture as one of the point in EO, USCIS backed off from doing this? We need to unite and do something about this. 10+ years of wait is simply not acceptable when RoW zooms by. can you pm me, i am interested in talking about this and doing something.

[suninphx]

I will say it again that EB1C India consumes 5K - perhaps 7K (including dependents). Total EB1India probably consumes 10K at best.

Here is some FY2014 and FY2015 statistics from great Spec

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,167 --- 3,561 --- 3,676 ----- 109 -- 9,128 --- 22,641
INDIA ---- 12,978 -- 23,528 --- 3,526 ----- 732 ----- 96 --- 40,860
MEXICO ---- 1,522 ----- 750 --- 3,738 ----- 965 ---- 129 ---- 7,104
PHIL. ------- 262 --- 1,972 --- 5,685 ----- 251 ------ 2 ---- 8,172
ROW ------ 19,679 -- 19,261 -- 26,074 --- 6,230 -- 1,337 --- 72,581

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,239 --- 4,202 --- 3,211 ------ 81 -- 8,156 --- 21,889
INDIA ---- 12,253 --- 7,235 --- 7,026 ----- 709 ---- 111 --- 27,334
MEXICO ---- 1,435 --- 1,365 --- 2,481 --- 1,022 ----- 77 ---- 6,380
PHIL. ------- 225 --- 2,220 --- 7,658 ----- 249 ----- 11 --- 10,363
ROW ------ 21,838 -- 29,457 -- 17,075 --- 8,210 -- 1,409 --- 77,989

TOTAL ---- 41,990 -- 44,479 -- 37,451 -- 10,271 -- 9,764 -- 143,955

So India EB1 usage is already more than 21% than what you claimed. And please don't say its just 2.2K more than what you stated. Because situation is so bad that every visa counts.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting - i think lawsuit will screw us further. any idea why when the admin itself had recapture as one of the point in EO, USCIS backed off from doing this? We need to unite and do something about this. 10+ years of wait is simply not acceptable when RoW zooms by. can you pm me, i am interested in talking about this and doing something.

USCIS only backed off because WH ordered it to. USCIS is an executive branch controlled by the WH. I think WH knew fully well aboout VB reversal too and backed it and thats why USCIS fought it nail and tooth in the courts. I am pretty confident that recapture was in the cards and that's why they had the RFI to set it up to "collect comments from stakeholders" to protect them from lawsuits. I think everything for legal immigrants was stopped once DAPA got stuck in courts. EO was primarily for undocumented and we were simply allowed to hop on the gravy train so that it looks Obama is fixing "immigration as a whole" and not just doing it for undocumented. So, once DAPA got stuck, we got held hostage. It is the Democrats best interest to club legal immigration reforms with illegal immigration in the name of CIR.

Either way, this administration is done. We only got H4 EAD from them. We will have to restart once the new administration gets sworn in January.

[anuprab]

USCIS only backed off because WH ordered it to. USCIS is an executive branch controlled by the WH. I think WH knew fully well aboout VB reversal too and backed it and thats why USCIS fought it nail and tooth in the courts. I am pretty confident that recapture was in the cards and that's why they had the RFI to set it up to "collect comments from stakeholders" to protect them from lawsuits. I think everything for legal immigrants was stopped once DAPA got stuck in courts. EO was primarily for undocumented and we were simply allowed to hop on the gravy train so that it looks Obama is fixing "immigration as a whole" and not just doing it for undocumented. So, once DAPA got stuck, we got held hostage. It is the Democrats best interest to club legal immigration reforms with illegal immigration in the name of CIR.

Either way, this administration is done. We only got H4 EAD from them. We will have to restart once the new administration gets sworn in January.

so what happens if DAPA/DACA passes?? where does that leave us or wait a min USCIS suddenly finds that their cooked up inventory number is running very low and they need to move the dates to not waste visas!!

i still dont understand WH role in reversal of the VB, it barely moved to Jul 2011 for India for god's sake...not a whole lot to generate any frenzy in the EBI community...

[iatiam]

USCIS only backed off because WH ordered it to. USCIS is an executive branch controlled by the WH. I think WH knew fully well aboout VB reversal too and backed it and thats why USCIS fought it nail and tooth in the courts. I am pretty confident that recapture was in the cards and that's why they had the RFI to set it up to "collect comments from stakeholders" to protect them from lawsuits. I think everything for legal immigrants was stopped once DAPA got stuck in courts. EO was primarily for undocumented and we were simply allowed to hop on the gravy train so that it looks Obama is fixing "immigration as a whole" and not just doing it for undocumented. So, once DAPA got stuck, we got held hostage. It is the Democrats best interest to club legal immigration reforms with illegal immigration in the name of CIR.

Either way, this administration is done. We only got H4 EAD from them. We will have to restart once the new administration gets sworn in January.

I don't think the Obama administration is responsible for H4 EAD. It was in the comment period when Obama made his speech on EO. My friend and I were watching it and I told him "I have a feeling people will think H4 EAD was a result of EO" and sure enough, many people still think that.

Which means that WH has done absolutely nothing to help legal community. Never been a fan of Bush Jr. but at least he tried hard to bring CIR. If the administration had a fraction of the will it had to pass healthcare,we would all be in much better shape now. For Obama, it was all talk - at FB and LinkedIn HQ and a bunch of other places and then when it is time to get the goodies, its given to illegals.

This makes me even more optimistic. I don't think it can get any more worse than this. This administration has shown it.


Iatiam

[iatiam]

EB3Iwaiting - i think lawsuit will screw us further.

This shows how much risk averse we are as a community. Yesterday I saw a lady making a speech at her graduation and proudly announcing to the world that she is undocumented. So if you are here legally and paid your taxes, who is there to be afraid of? Whether or not a lawsuit will do any thing is another question.

[anuprab]

This shows how much risk averse we are as a community. Yesterday I saw a lady making a speech at her graduation and proudly announcing to the world that she is undocumented. So if you are here legally and paid your taxes, who is there to be afraid of? Whether or not a lawsuit will do any thing is another question.

you saw the benefit of VB lawsuit right? first everyone was on board and then when nothing happened on filing dates everyone wanted the lawsuit stopped. I dont see the dates moving in VB even after the lawsuit has been struck down..we will never figure out if the lawsuit harmed us in any manner. but one thing certain is it will turn USCIS hostile. better to work with them and admin than go the lawsuit way is my 2 cents

[srimurthy]

I don't think the Obama administration is responsible for H4 EAD. It was in the comment period when Obama made his speech on EO. My friend and I were watching it and I told him "I have a feeling people will think H4 EAD was a result of EO" and sure enough, many people still think that.

Which means that WH has done absolutely nothing to help legal community. Never been a fan of Bush Jr. but at least he tried hard to bring CIR. If the administration had a fraction of the will it had to pass healthcare,we would all be in much better shape now. For Obama, it was all talk - at FB and LinkedIn HQ and a bunch of other places and then when it is time to get the goodies, its given to illegals.

This makes me even more optimistic. I don't think it can get any more worse than this. This administration has shown it.


Iatiam

Agree with you and even on health care they could have done it in the first term itself and seeing the backlash they got that's when they wanted to move ahead on it. And anyway I feel Dems are more inclined to give something for undocumented as that adds to their political vote base and if the documented get anything as a tag on that is ok. And I feel the only way legal can get something is as a add on to the undocumented benefits.

[gcq]

you saw the benefit of VB lawsuit right? first everyone was on board and then when nothing happened on filing dates everyone wanted the lawsuit stopped. I dont see the dates moving in VB even after the lawsuit has been struck down..we will never figure out if the lawsuit harmed us in any manner. but one thing certain is it will turn USCIS hostile. better to work with them and admin than go the lawsuit way is my 2 cents

I will quote old indian scripts to reply to this

http://www.indiadivine.org/content/t...verses-3-to-5/

Samam (persuade using reasoning), bhEdam (take the help of common friends), dAnam (provide gainful incentives) and dandam - the last one, force or coercive action, to be undertaken when all else fails. Himsa (violence) should be the last resort even if the purpose was to destroy adharma. Both Ramayana and Mahabharata illustrate the employment of the above mentioned strategy of SAmam, bhEdam, dAnam and andam

Lawsuit is dandam

[EB3Iwaiting]

I don't think the Obama administration is responsible for H4 EAD. It was in the comment period when Obama made his speech on EO.

Actually, H4 EAD started with the WH petition in 2011. At that time, only 5k signatures were required to get a response and it got 6k. The administration responded that they are working on a proposed rule. USCIS submitted the proposed rule to OMB in 2012 but it was languishing there for 2 years since in 2013 we all go distracted by CIR. Then some of us met with OMB in April 2014 and it moved again. So, yes, H4 EAD started long before the EO but ultimately was clubbed with the EO and many think it is a result of the EO which is not. But it is also true that this administration did H4 EAD. That is the only thing that they did for legal immigrants.

Never been a fan of Bush Jr. but at least he tried hard to bring CIR. If the administration had a fraction of the will it had to pass healthcare,we would all be in much better shape now. For Obama, it was all talk - at FB and LinkedIn HQ and a bunch of other places and then when it is time to get the goodies, its given to illegals.

This makes me even more optimistic. I don't think it can get any more worse than this. This administration has shown it.


Iatiam

Agree with this. This administration clubbed us with the illegals and now Dems will continue to use this in the name of CIR. It was a classic political move by Obama. We will be held hostage unless Dems give relief to illegals (and by that I mean citizenship. Dems get nothing if illegals are not given right to vote.) And thats why we are stuck and passing laws legislatively seems impossible unless one party controls all 3.

[qesehmk]

Q- we are talking about the wait time from PD. And if my memory serves me right its less than 5 years for you- The way you calculated 11 years..someone might be waiting for 15 years...so lets not go there. Use of "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" is completely out of context. Rest of the post I don't even want to comment.

You only want to complain and not do anything - that's what it boils down to. You are happy to do an audit of my 11 years wait. You are happy to blame EB1C. You are happy to put fingers in others' analysis.

But there is no original thinking and analysis. I am sorry to say this but that's what I have seen you from a very long time.

[qesehmk]

RESPECT my friend. That's a whole lot that I didn't expect from you.

I am mighty surprised that you couldn't find a lawyer. I have highest respect for efforts. I suggest you don't give up. You will find lawyers who will take this up. Also don't go finding the most accomplished lawyers.

When somebody is very accomplished - they are the ones who might get hurt by breaking status quo. You might want to look for a lawyer who is not yet quite established but has the fire to do something and passion to seek justice for backlogged candidates.

p.s. - I am not surprised on your FOIA being turned down. My own one got turned down 2 months back. It was an amazingly simple request but they turned it down. The request was a 5x5 matrix of 2015 visa issuances by country and category. That's it. But they refused to give it away.

A few of us had filed FOIA request to USCIS. They denied it saying the info is too much and it will cost them a lot of money to "take printouts" to give us the data. I have the letter saved somewhere, I can post it. Greg submitted an FOIA request too and they asked for $2000 for printouts. I think they did submit that money from the crowdfunding they did. I do not know what happened next.

Some of us also prepared an extensive set of documents showing how many GCs still remain wasted and were never recaptured. We prepared everything to file a lawsuit to get the courts to recapture wasted visas. We prepared a legal brief expressing why USCIS should do it and not wait for Congress. The retrogressed countries are the only ones affected by the visa wastage as ROWs still continue to get GCs when they are processed. Only the wait times of retrogressed countries get longer. In the legal brief, we asked the court to intervene because we are literally paying the price for USCIS' inefficiency. All the talks about only 140k EB GCs and 7% country cap is the law of the land. We can only get Congress to change it. But we never expected USCIS to waste thousands of GCs. That has caused a domino effect to the backlog. S, we got a lawsuit ready with everything and approached AIC as well as Cyrus. We were we could easily fund the lawsuit as there are hundreds of thousands stuck in backlog and some donation will cover the cost.

But we could not find a single lawyer who would represent us. AIC refused to take the case and Cyrus told us that if we file a lawsuit, that permanently closes the door on the next administration wanting to do recapture. USCIS will become more hostile towards us and this could drag on for years. USCIS has all the resources with them to drag this out.

So, I have tried and will continue to try whatever I can to solve this mess. It will be good if we can come together and unite on this front.

[suninphx]

You only want to complain and not do anything - that's what it boils down to. You are happy to do an audit of my 11 years wait. You are happy to blame EB1C. You are happy to put fingers in others' analysis.

But there is no original thinking and analysis. I am sorry to say this but that's what I have seen you from a very long time.

Q- you have habit of not accepting your wrong statements when presented with the facts.(And this is not first time) The numbers I shared are available on this very blog for any one to use.(And I have no problem accepting that I don't have analytical ability like Spec to present the numbers way he does). So how does it matter if its original thinking or not. Fact remains that number you stated were not correct. You don't want to accept it is different matter.

So while you are assuming that no one doing anything (and that's why I did not want to respond to rest of your previous post) - you are proven wrong again by another user just today. So please don't assume that if nothing is getting shared on this web site means no one doing anything.

Can I ask what you have done? Or you are agreeing you lost the drive because you already have GC?

And since when complaining against abuse is being perceived so badly as if I have done some crime? With same logic should I draw conclusion that you are supporting abuse?

And oh - I am not looking for any certificate about original thinking and analysis - certainly not from you.

[Raj0687]

Agree with this. This administration clubbed us with the illegals and now Dems will continue to use this in the name of CIR. It was a classic political move by Obama. We will be held hostage unless Dems give relief to illegals (and by that I mean citizenship. Dems get nothing if illegals are not given right to vote.) And thats why we are stuck and passing laws legislatively seems impossible unless one party controls all 3.[/QUOTE]

and when they have all 3, they don't like to do anything. It's not that they never had 3.

[qesehmk]

I said "YOU" don't produce original work and only criticize others. There are ample others who do produce original work here. So don't hide behind others.

Q- you have habit of not accepting your wrong statements when presented with the facts.(And this is not first time) The numbers I shared are available on this very blog for any one to use.(And I have no problem accepting that I don't have analytical ability like Spec to present the numbers way he does). So how does it matter if its original thinking or not. Fact remains that number you stated were not correct. You don't want to accept it is different matter.

So while you are assuming that no one doing anything (and that's why I did not want to respond to rest of your previous post) - you are proven wrong again by another user just today. So please don't assume that if nothing is getting shared on this web site means no one doing anything.

Can I ask what you have done? Or you are agreeing you lost the drive because you already have GC?

And since when complaining against abuse is being perceived so badly as if I have done some crime? With same logic should I draw conclusion that you are supporting abuse?

And oh - I am not looking for any certificate about original thinking and analysis - certainly not from you.

[EB3Iwaiting]

RESPECT my friend. That's a whole lot that I didn't expect from you.

I am mighty surprised that you couldn't find a lawyer. I have highest respect for efforts. I suggest you don't give up. You will find lawyers who will take this up. Also don't go finding the most accomplished lawyers.

When somebody is very accomplished - they are the ones who might get hurt by breaking status quo. You might want to look for a lawyer who is not yet quite established but has the fire to do something and passion to seek justice for backlogged candidates.

p.s. - I am not surprised on your FOIA being turned down. My own one got turned down 2 months back. It was an amazingly simple request but they turned it down. The request was a 5x5 matrix of 2015 visa issuances by country and category. That's it. But they refused to give it away.

I agree with you that we need a lawyer who is passionate about our cause and is ready to take on the fight. Most provide lip service. Anyway, most are now discouraged with what happened with the Visagate lawsuit. People want immediate results and lawsuits can drag on for months/years specially if USCIS wants to fight it out. And now many do believe that it will close the door for the next administration from doing it. So, lets see. We will certainly keep trying.

Regarding the FOIA request, I think it is pretty obvious. They are probably fudging numbers and last year's mis-allocation was a gross mistake. They could not even hide it. That is probably why they refused to give it to you even though it was a simple request. We requested for I-140 data too divided by country and category and that of course, got turned down. Doubt even CO has that data or if USCIS even maintains it.

[gcq]

I agree with you that we need a lawyer who is passionate about our cause and is ready to take on the fight. Most provide lip service. Anyway, most are now discouraged with what happened with the Visagate lawsuit. People want immediate results and lawsuits can drag on for months/years specially if USCIS wants to fight it out. And now many do believe that it will close the door for the next administration from doing it. So, lets see. We will certainly keep trying.

Regarding the FOIA request, I think it is pretty obvious. They are probably fudging numbers and last year's mis-allocation was a gross mistake. They could not even hide it. That is probably why they refused to give it to you even though it was a simple request. We requested for I-140 data too divided by country and category and that of course, got turned down. Doubt even CO has that data or if USCIS even maintains it.

Can FOIA requests be turned down that easily ?

From my understanding all departments are required to comply with FOIA. I was thinking of requesting an yearly FOIA from CO regarding the details of visa bullletin moment decisions - as to why he arrived at a particular decision, what all laws were taken into account. How did he make sure he complying with INA etc.

[qesehmk]

GCQ - keep trying. DoS and USCIS both have become shameless. They take forever to provide even simple information.

And then I got a flat out denial on a simple request saying such information is either not available or take too much time.

Can FOIA requests be turned down that easily ?

From my understanding all departments are required to comply with FOIA. I was thinking of requesting an yearly FOIA from CO regarding the details of visa bullletin moment decisions - as to why he arrived at a particular decision, what all laws were taken into account. How did he make sure he complying with INA etc.

[delguy]

GCQ - keep trying. DoS and USCIS both have become shameless. They take forever to provide even simple information.

And then I got a flat out denial on a simple request saying such information is either not available or take too much time.

Do you think if someone tries to get through his/her senator office, they might take it seriously and provide such information? Isn't there a CIC (India) like office where one can appeal such information denials?

[gcq]

Do you think if someone tries to get through his/her senator office, they might take it seriously and provide such information? Isn't there a CIC (India) like office where one can appeal such information denials?

This should be the contact, FOIA Ombudsman.
https://ogis.archives.gov/?p=/ogis/index.html

The Office of Government Information Services (OGIS) is a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) resource for the public and the government. Congress has charged us with reviewing FOIA policies, procedures and compliance of Federal agencies and to recommend changes to FOIA based on what we see. Our mission also includes resolving FOIA disputes between Federal agencies and requesters.

[suninphx]

I said "YOU" don't produce original work and only criticize others. There are ample others who do produce original work here. So don't hide behind others.

Now, instead of criticizing me how about YOU respond to the facts presented to you. And again, just because you don't know--- don't assume that I am(or any one else) not doing anything.

I have lot of respect for you for starting this great forum so I urge you not turn it into like other forum (which I don't want to name here)

[qesehmk]

Now, instead of criticizing me how about YOU respond to the facts presented to you. And again, just because you don't know--- don't assume that I am(or any one else) not doing anything.

I have lot of respect for you for starting this great forum so I urge you not turn it into like other forum (which I don't want to name here)

Your fact is that I said 10K for EB1 India and you dug out 12.5K. We can argue over that or discuss the real topic whether country quota is a much bigger problem for backlogged candidates than EB1-C-India. My viewpoint is that it is. You seem to think otherwise.I certainly agree that we don't need to degenerate this debate. So let's stick to factual analysis.

[cursedguy]

Your fact is that I said 10K for EB1 India and you dug out 12.5K. We can argue over that or discuss the real topic whether country quota is a much bigger problem for backlogged candidates than EB1-C-India. My viewpoint is that it is. You seem to think otherwise.I certainly agree that we don't need to degenerate this debate. So let's stick to factual analysis.

That is absolutely true.. its ROW visas that did not give any spillover this year.

[suninphx]

Your fact is that I said 10K for EB1 India and you dug out 12.5K. We can argue over that or discuss the real topic whether country quota is a much bigger problem for backlogged candidates than EB1-C-India. My viewpoint is that it is. You seem to think otherwise.I certainly agree that we don't need to degenerate this debate. So let's stick to factual analysis.

I don't think two need to be mutually exclusive.More than number the trend is more worrisome.