EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[gcq]

I am totally with you, but like @mfd1402 said, why is EB3ROW not Current when EB2ROW is Current? Why has USCIS not generated RFE's to EB3I beyond Feb2005? These are the head scratchers..

USCIS is not generating RFE beyond Feb 2005 probably because CO is "predicting" somehow he is going to get EB3-ROW applications from MARS. So USCIS won't generate RFE unless they are damn sure that application is going to be approved in a year or that EB3-I candidate will be wasting their money, USCIS will be wasting their effort. All this is based on false prediction by CO. IMO what is going to happen by last quarter is very different from what our genius CO is predicting. Dates are going to move drastically. 1 month is all that is needed for an applicant to respond to all standard RFEs. Unless somebody is going to go after CO, he will do this every year.

[mfd1402]

It's weird ..... I would expect at least 40% eb3i ppl have ported to eb2 over the last few yrs.... At least by moving dates we will get an accurate demand estimate for eb3i and reduction of porting

[mfd1402]

The only explanation I can think of CO not moving eb3i dates is that he expects every 1 application to generate 3 or 4 apps due to kids , wife etc

[suninphx]

EB3-I folks, Don't get disappointed... I don't see any red flags with this I-485 report with respect to EB3-I expected SO... I'm still hopeful that there will be big SO to EB3-I.
We have predicted that will happen in the last quarter hence urge you guys to wait till the end of the last quarter and see.
I'm not here to provide any false hopes.. when I had projected that chart 2 years ago it was a calculated guess.. I still think it will happen to greater extent unless CO wastes the visas like last year.

one way of looking at this report is :
Compare the numbers under all EB-2 and EB-3 categories.. we know that this year EB2-I will get max 4k out of total 40k of EB-2 and whereas we are expecting in EB3-I, 16k out of total 40K of EB-3.
you should be able to see that difference when you compare all the available numbers under EB-2 and EB-3 categories.
I don't want to speculate any more and would like to wait and watch till the end of September.

16K to EB3I would be great. In addition to much desrved relief to EB3I people waiting for over a decade this would probably save 2-3K of ported Visas for EB2I.

[Dondraper]

It looks like once the EB3-i dates move beyond 2007, they will zoom past EB2 for a long time.

[Spectator]

DHS has finally published the FY2014 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics and the accompanying Tables.

The main page is here.

Obviously, no sign of the FY2015 figures!!

Edit:- I know people are interested in the EB1 breakdown. Here it is for the primary applicants:

EB1A -- 24.5%
EB1B -- 18.5%
EB1C -- 57.0%
Total - 100.0%

[EB3Iwaiting]

DHS has finally published the FY2014 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics and the accompanying Tables.

The main page is here.

Obviously, no sign of the FY2015 figures!!

Thanks Spec. 2015 figures will probably come 1 year from today.

[EB3Iwaiting]

July VB released:

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...july-2016.html

EB2I - 1 Nov 2004

EB3I - 22nd Oct 2004.

Still no spillover. We have to wait for the last 2 months. CO wants to give every available GC to ROWs before applying SO.

[anuprab]

July VB released:

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...july-2016.html

EB2I - 1 Nov 2004

EB3I - 22nd Oct 2004.

Still no spillover. We have to wait for the last 2 months. CO wants to give every available GC to ROWs before applying SO.

I am scared there will be wastage. Can they process that many visas when they even havent issued that many RFEs yet??

[gcq]

I am scared there will be wastage. Can they process that many visas when they even havent issued that many RFEs yet??

Unless we do something about it, this will continue !

[anuprab]

Unless we do something about it, this will continue !

depressed and helpless because there is nothing we can do about this...at this rate feel like packing up and going back.

[suninphx]

DHS has finally published the FY2014 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics and the accompanying Tables.

The main page is here.

Obviously, no sign of the FY2015 figures!!

Edit:- I know people are interested in the EB1 breakdown. Here it is for the primary applicants:

EB1A -- 24.5%
EB1B -- 18.5%
EB1C -- 57.0%
Total - 100.0%

Thanks Spec!

So apparently more 'managers' are required than research scholars ...excellent

[smuggymba]

Thanks Spec!

So apparently more 'managers' are required than research scholars ...excellent

I have seen a whole team onsite of Infosys/Genpact get EB1C GC's over the last 2-3 years. Some testers will be appying for citizenship when I'll re renewing my EAD for the 4th time.

I was ok with "account managers" getting EB1C GC's (even though they're just resource managers who are onsite), now it's on a ridicoulous scale. Everyone is invited.

[gcq]

depressed and helpless because there is nothing we can do about this...at this rate feel like packing up and going back.

We are not helpless. If CO was acting as per law and in the spirit of law, it is ok to feel helpless. Even then you can petition lawmakers to change the law. If CO is holding dates for EB3-ROW and EB3-I against law, it should be challenged.

[iatiam]

I have seen a whole team onsite of Infosys/Genpact get EB1C GC's over the last 2-3 years. Some testers will be appying for citizenship when I'll re renewing my EAD for the 4th time.

I was ok with "account managers" getting EB1C GC's (even though they're just resource managers who are onsite), now it's on a ridicoulous scale. Everyone is invited.

I want to feel optimistic and say that things will get better from now on. There was a time in 2005-2007 when even worse abuses were happening like pre-adjucated I-485's and then USCIS stepped up and put an end to all that non-sense. Now there is all this EB1 abuse and its only a matter of time before it comes in the radar and scrutinized.

When there is a tide, all boats will rise. If and when economy tanks, a lot of people will go under. We just have to be patient till that happens. I am not discounting the power of legislation but given the toxic political situation we are in, the chances of that happening is minimum to none.

Its darkest before the dawn.

Iatiam

[hope21]

I am totally with you on this..CO and company/law makers think they are doing a great job by abiding by the laws like the per country limit. If they think so, I am okay with that…. Can’t they think rationally that how can they give away GCs to these EB1 folks who are not even managers in the first place (basic definition of LIA Visa). If they know it, how can they let it happen, how can they let them misuse it time and again, especially , when EB2 and EB3 folks are at a stand still and does not even look like situation is going to improve in the next 1/ 1 and half years ahead.

Can’t they think logically for once how easy it is to fix it. All they need to do is - implement minimum wage requirements for these so called managerial categories L1A (to be at par with H1) – meaning, for any managerial categories, minimum wage requirement should be 120k/125k (which is also an industry standard) and also By doing this, 75 to 80% of the L1 folks will not qualify and only real managers will qualify…. But its just basic logic/common sense (which somehow they want to ignore), I don’t know the reason why? Spec/Q and other gurus, do you know why?

We are not helpless. If CO was acting as per law and in the spirit of law, it is ok to feel helpless. Even then you can petition lawmakers to change the law. If CO is holding dates for EB3-ROW and EB3-I against law, it should be challenged.

[hope21]

Iatiam,

I am also an optimist person, but this abuse is happening for quite a while now, its high time they should take action - not sure what could go wrong if they implement minimum wage requirements for EB1 GCs.... they will certainly be so called within law (which they are mostly worried about)...

[qesehmk]

hope21 - one can sense your anguish. I will first address your question about salary requirements and then speak about the topic in general.

Wages vary across industries. If wages were the determinant of GC eligibility then you would see candidates mostly from financial, pharmaceutical, healthcare or technology industry in that order.

I have seen individual contributor roles earning north of 300K and managers of 1000 people earning 120K - this is within one industry.

As per the whole debate about who has better claim over GC - L1/EB1 vs US educated (MS MBA etc); USCIS/DOS don't aim to provide GCs to the most bright people. They have an economic objective to meet. And they have made certain categories with certain rules. Those 4-5K indians are actually fulfilling those requirements. Your or mine personal opinion about "who deserves what" don't really matter to USCIS/DOS.

Besides Indians are being robbed of 50K or so visas every year. How? because they are getting 7% of visa supply as opposed to 50-60% demand for visas that Indians constitute. You should be asking - why this discrimination in visa allocation. That law itself is soooooooo discriminatory.

If I were you and felt like doing anything - I would spend my time and energy fighting the per country quota. That is the biggest EVIL in immigration.

EB1-C India folks are not a problem at all.

I am totally with you on this..CO and company/law makers think they are doing a great job by abiding by the laws like the per country limit. If they think so, I am okay with that…. Can’t they think rationally that how can they give away GCs to these EB1 folks who are not even managers in the first place (basic definition of LIA Visa). If they know it, how can they let it happen, how can they let them misuse it time and again, especially , when EB2 and EB3 folks are at a stand still and does not even look like situation is going to improve in the next 1/ 1 and half years ahead.

Can’t they think logically for once how easy it is to fix it. All they need to do is - implement minimum wage requirements for these so called managerial categories L1A (to be at par with H1) – meaning, for any managerial categories, minimum wage requirement should be 120k/125k (which is also an industry standard) and also By doing this, 75 to 80% of the L1 folks will not qualify and only real managers will qualify…. But its just basic logic/common sense (which somehow they want to ignore), I don’t know the reason why? Spec/Q and other gurus, do you know why?

[EB3Iwaiting]

They have an economic objective to meet. And they have made certain categories with certain rules. Those 4-5K indians are actually fulfilling those requirements. Your or mine personal opinion about "who deserves what" don't really matter to USCIS/DOS.

It applies to everyone who has an approved PERM and I-140. That proves your skills are required by your company here, you are paid the correct wage and the company could not find an American to do your job. So, for an Employment Based GC, why discriminate based on country of birth? It matters for Family Based. The reason is they do not want any country to dominate immigration pattern in any category, be it FB or EB.

If I were you and felt like doing anything - I would spend my time and energy fighting the per country quota. That is the biggest EVIL in immigration.

EB1-C India folks are not a problem at all.

Agree. Removing per country quota is important. We can go on debating this. But for the reason I posted in bold, it is an uphill task. But we should also work to recapture all GCs that still remain wasted.

[suninphx]

EB1-C India folks are not a problem at all.

for me -this is very disappointing statement from someone like Q! I have observed over the years whenever some one says something about EB1C, there is always always supportive post from Q.

Of course, he is entitled to his own opinion,more so, being owner of the blog. May be one should wait 7-8-9 or more years to get GC to understand the pain.

And btw - are you talking about 4-5k primary applicants? Because EB1C India takes much more than that - AFAIK.

And removing country quota will not solve something overnight. It will stall take years to clear current backlog. May be visa recapture is needed first followed by removing of country quota.

[anuprab]

It applies to everyone who has an approved PERM and I-140. That proves your skills are required by your company here, you are paid the correct wage and the company could not find an American to do your job. So, for an Employment Based GC, why discriminate based on country of birth? It matters for Family Based. The reason is they do not want any country to dominate immigration pattern in any category, be it FB or EB.



Agree. Removing per country quota is important. We can go on debating this. But for the reason I posted in bold, it is an uphill task. But we should also work to recapture all GCs that still remain wasted.

is there a way we can recapture previously wasted greencards? There was a reference to this in the EO but then nothing happened. This is easily done as those unused greencards were never issued. Why are people waiting in line paying for inefficiencies of USCIS...thats why i said I am frustrated, nothing good has come out of the EO or Obama in his all 8 years..disappointed is an understatement at this point in time.

[qesehmk]

Sun - it is disappointing because you are approaching it from emotional angle rather than rational one.

please allow me to tell you something about myself. I waited 11 years before I received a green card. Inspite of directly being hired out of mba school by a fortune 100 CIO I had a 11 year wait because I made a stupid mistake of NOT insisting on that they file GC right away. Thus, I know your pain. I am not oblivious to it. It is out of that shared pain that this blog was born.

Your observation is part right. I step not just when someone vents frustration on EB1C India but pretty much when one vents their frustration on any other immigration group.

I do it because the American immigration system is flawed at best and exploitative at worst. First the number 140K is paltry compared to demand. Second it is not FIFO. It discriminates based on country of birth.

I will say it again that EB1C India consumes 5K - perhaps 7K (including dependents). Total EB1India probably consumes 10K at best. You think a country of 1.2B can't produce 5K EB1C?

As I said - your response is emotional and comparative. "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" type response. Focus on causes why YOU are waiting in the line for decades. EB1C-India is least of your worries. Imagine what if DoS started using 140K strictly for primary and used family visas or dependents. There wouldn't be any backlog. Imagine if there are no country quotas - then everybody will have a 2-3 year wait time instead of a few waiting decades.

Imagine on the other hand that EB1C India is banned. You tell me what that does other than give YOU a GC (assuming you are somewhere in 2009/2010 EB2 range). It does squat for EB3 because the visas will never reach EB3.

If you think country quota is an impossible task and recapture is more realistic then why don't you go and file a FoI request about an audit of 2015 visa issuance. I have said it previously that I have a strong suspicion that in 2015 visas were wasted most likely because DoS/USCIS applied the visas twice to candidates that ported. Verify that hunch. The math doesn't add up between 2014 inventory and 2015 inventory. Check it out yourself.

EB3waiting - why don't you try that?

for me -this is very disappointing statement from someone like Q! I have observed over the years whenever some one says something about EB1C, there is always always supportive post from Q.

Of course, he is entitled to his own opinion,more so, being owner of the blog. May be one should wait 7-8-9 or more years to get GC to understand the pain.

And btw - are you talking about 4-5k primary applicants? Because EB1C India takes much more than that - AFAIK.

And removing country quota will not solve something overnight. It will stall take years to clear current backlog. May be visa recapture is needed first followed by removing of country quota.

[suninphx]

Sun - it is disappointing because you are approaching it from emotional angle rather than rational one.

please allow me to tell you something about myself. I waited 11 years before I received a green card. Inspite of directly being hired out of mba school by a fortune 100 CIO I had a 11 year wait because I made a stupid mistake of NOT insisting on that they file GC right away. Thus, I know your pain. I am not oblivious to it. It is out of that shared pain that this blog was born.

Your observation is part right. I step not just when someone vents frustration on EB1C India but pretty much when one vents their frustration on any other immigration group.

I do it because the American immigration system is flawed at best and exploitative at worst. First the number 140K is paltry compared to demand. Second it is not FIFO. It discriminates based on country of birth.

I will say it again that EB1C India consumes 5K - perhaps 7K (including dependents). Total EB1India probably consumes 10K at best. You think a country of 1.2B can't produce 5K EB1C?

As I said - your response is emotional and comparative. "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" type response. Focus on causes why YOU are waiting in the line for decades. EB1C-India is least of your worries. Imagine what if DoS started using 140K strictly for primary and used family visas or dependents. There wouldn't be any backlog. Imagine if there are no country quotas - then everybody will have a 2-3 year wait time instead of a few waiting decades.

Imagine on the other hand that EB1C India is banned. You tell me what that does other than give YOU a GC (assuming you are somewhere in 2009/2010 EB2 range). It does squat for EB3 because the visas will never reach EB3.

If you think country quota is an impossible task and recapture is more realistic then why don't you go and file a FoI request about an audit of 2015 visa issuance. I have said it previously that I have a strong suspicion that in 2015 visas were wasted most likely because DoS/USCIS applied the visas twice to candidates that ported. Verify that hunch. The math doesn't add up between 2014 inventory and 2015 inventory. Check it out yourself.

EB3waiting - why don't you try that?

Q- we are talking about the wait time from PD. And if my memory serves me right its less than 5 years for you- The way you calculated 11 years..someone might be waiting for 15 years...so lets not go there. Use of "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" is completely out of context. Rest of the post I don't even want to comment.

[anuprab]

Q- we are talking about the wait time from PD. And if my memory serves me right its less than 5 years for you- The way you calculated 11 years..someone might be waiting for 15 years...so lets not go there. Use of "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" is completely out of context. Rest of the post I don't even want to comment.

i agree with Q that Eb1C is least of our problems but in response to Q, I guess this is easy for people to complain and get resolved! imagine trying to get country quota removed or dependents removed or recapture wasted visas! hence the rant against Eb1C

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3waiting - why don't you try that?

A few of us had filed FOIA request to USCIS. They denied it saying the info is too much and it will cost them a lot of money to "take printouts" to give us the data. I have the letter saved somewhere, I can post it. Greg submitted an FOIA request too and they asked for $2000 for printouts. I think they did submit that money from the crowdfunding they did. I do not know what happened next.

Some of us also prepared an extensive set of documents showing how many GCs still remain wasted and were never recaptured. We prepared everything to file a lawsuit to get the courts to recapture wasted visas. We prepared a legal brief expressing why USCIS should do it and not wait for Congress. The retrogressed countries are the only ones affected by the visa wastage as ROWs still continue to get GCs when they are processed. Only the wait times of retrogressed countries get longer. In the legal brief, we asked the court to intervene because we are literally paying the price for USCIS' inefficiency. All the talks about only 140k EB GCs and 7% country cap is the law of the land. We can only get Congress to change it. But we never expected USCIS to waste thousands of GCs. That has caused a domino effect to the backlog. S, we got a lawsuit ready with everything and approached AIC as well as Cyrus. We were we could easily fund the lawsuit as there are hundreds of thousands stuck in backlog and some donation will cover the cost.

But we could not find a single lawyer who would represent us. AIC refused to take the case and Cyrus told us that if we file a lawsuit, that permanently closes the door on the next administration wanting to do recapture. USCIS will become more hostile towards us and this could drag on for years. USCIS has all the resources with them to drag this out.

So, I have tried and will continue to try whatever I can to solve this mess. It will be good if we can come together and unite on this front.