EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Spectator]

Whatever date DOS sets doesn't matter anymore. The dates set by USCIS bulletin matter....

So even if he sticks to initial projection that is of no use for AOS cases anyways

Did I miss something other than one more dose of (known) negative news?

suninphx,

I respect your opinion, but I disagree in part.

The Filing Dates for EB AOS applicants have been rendered superfluous by USCIS decision not to honor them. Whether to file an I-485, or for it to be approved, only the DOS FAD matters currently. I think we agree on that.

We'll have to see what happens in the future, but I have the sense/hope (like many others) that the Filing Dates are likely to be reset at the beginning of each FY to cover where the FAD is expected to reach by the end of that FY. USCIS may honor the Filing Dates for a month or two each time that happens.

Where they reset to is therefore dependent on where the FAD reaches in the preceding FY. A failure to reach the previous projection is likely to mean the Filing Date will not move as far as it might have done so.

Judging by what happened when May/June 2009 were open for filing, there are anything from 3.0 - 4.5k more applications to be filed between July 2009 and May 2010 under EB2-I.

I don't think the Filing Date concept will become useful until the current backlog up to May 2010 is nearly exhausted. Only then might the date move more regularly and be accepted by USCIS.

Finally, this is the first time CO has semi-officially acknowledged that the estimated Filing Dates may not be reached. That is newsworthy and significant. Until now, it has only been people like those on this forum who have drawn that conclusion.

[vishnu]

spec - you are right on the filing dates.... its likely a start of the year phenomenon for a month or two... and will become more in play once the backlog is eliminated

we may see it happen sooner in eb3 india over eb2 india...

and july 1 2009 for final dates was going to be a stretch.... im thinking april-may at this point (only incremental info I have is your database of trackitt approvals)

do you have any guesstimates at this point on where we will see final dates for eb2 india?

[qesehmk]

..Finally, this is the first time CO has semi-officially acknowledged that the estimated Filing Dates may not be reached. That is newsworthy and significant. Until now, it has only been people like those on this forum who have drawn that conclusion.

Oink oink.

[Spectator]

Oink oink.

Q,

You need to explain. I've seen you use the expression before, but I don't understand its significance.

Other than a pig sounding noise, it means nothing to me.

[qesehmk]

Sorry .. I thought you understood!

It's my way of agreeing with somebody with an expression - "told you so" !!

p.s. - Don't mean to offend you.

Q,

You need to explain. I've seen you use the expression before, but I don't understand its significance.

Other than a pig sounding noise, it means nothing to me.

[Spectator]

Sorry .. I thought you understood!

It's my way of agreeing with somebody with an expression - "told you so" !!

p.s. - Don't mean to offend you.

Q,

I wasn't offended, just curious. Now I know for future reference.

I remember previously that you thought one of the expressions I used was rude because you were not familiar with it.

[suninphx]

We'll have to see what happens in the future, but I have the sense/hope (like many others) that the Filing Dates are likely to be reset at the beginning of each FY to cover where the FAD is expected to reach by the end of that FY. USCIS may honor the Filing Dates for a month or two each time that happens.

After spending so much time on various immigration forums and with vast knowledge of the system you have, if you still say above - all I can say is that 'hope is a good thing'

Let's consider positive scenario (for a change )- if say FAD ends within reasonable range of initial predicted date of 01 Jul 09 and CO sets date of let's say 01-Jan-10 as next FY FAD , but USCIS still decides to not honor it (for their own reasons), then again then date set by DOS does not mean much.

Currently, I have no reason to believe the scenario you mentioned above would happen. ( won't complain though if it actually happens)

[Spectator]

Currently, I have no reason to believe the scenario you mentioned above would happen. ( won't complain though if it actually happens)

suninphx,

Do I hear correctly! I'm actually more optimistic than you are!!

Wonders will never cease.

[vishnu]

Spec: I see you haven't updated Eb1 trackitt approvals for a couple of days - nothing has changed since 4/18?

what are your guesstimates for Eb2 India final action dates by end of this FY?

Im going for 1k from EB1, 2k from EB2 M and P and possibly 2k from Eb2 ROW = 5k spillover, so ending around end April 2009, so CO takes it beyond by a month or so to May 2009

[HarepathekaIntezar]

India Employment-Based Final Action Dates:
The final action date for EB-2 India will advance modestly, from November 8, 2008 in April to November 22, 2008 in May. Similarly, EB-3 India will creep forward from August 8, 2004 in April to September 1, 2004 in May. EB-3 demand, after the initial allocation of numbers, has been increasing by 100 month over month from January to February and February to March.

These could be the unlucky folks who were unable to apply for AOS in July 2007 Fiasco. But anyways, as long as USCIS and DOS continue their quarrel and AILA acts as the wingman for DOS, there is nothing anyone can do about it.

[Spectator]

Spec: I see you haven't updated Eb1 trackitt approvals for a couple of days - nothing has changed since 4/18?

vishnu,

That would be correct. If I haven't updated the figure, it is only because no new EB1 approvals have been reported on Trackitt.

[EB2NOV10]

Hi Q/Spec,

Based on the latest information, what are the chances for Nov 2010 PD's to file EAD this year?

[vishnu]

I am not Q nor Spec, so excuse me in advance for taking the liberty to respond to you

all the predictions/calculations can point to some estimates on Final Action Dates - and for Eb2 India, im going with April 2009 or thereabout...

no way to predict filing dates because that's a function of how CO planning on using them - we don't have enough history to spot the trend

but irrespective of the scenario, nov 2010 would be a stretch for filing dates I think...even if he wants to maintain 1 year of inventory, he can set filing dates at may 2010

[vancouverman]

Dear experts..I've been following this thread for a long time. Appreciate all of your fact based analysis to ease the pain of many.
Based on CO's comments in the May VB, AOS inventory and approval trends, what are the chances of FA dates retrogressing to pre Aug 2007 in June VB and beyond?
You guessed it my PD is 08/07; RD is 02/16

PD: 08/07
1st EB2 I-140 approved Aug 2008
2nd EB2 I-140 approved PP/Concurrent 2/16 with recaptured 08/07 PD
I-485 filed concurrent NSC 2/16; EAD/AP received; pending as of 04/16

[gc_dec_2008]

Some action on my case after more than 4 years. I received message that RFE generated on my case. PD Dec 16, 2008

[EB2NOV10]

In Trackitt, for EB3-I upto Feb 2005 they are receiving RFE's.

[4WatItsWorth]

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...june-2016.html

EB2-I retrogresses to 01Oct2004. What a bummer!

From the bulletin-
=============
D. RETROGRESSION OF SEVERAL FAMILY-SPONSORED AND
EMPLOYMENT-BASED FINAL ACTION DATES FOR THE
MONTH OF JUNE

INDIA E2: During the past two months, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. This has necessitated retrogression of the Second preference final action date for the month of June in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2016 annual limit. This date is expected to advance slowly during the last three months of the fiscal year, at a pace consistent with that of the India Employment-based Third preference date.
=============

[vyruss]

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...june-2016.html

EB2-I retrogreases to 01Oct2004. What a bummer!

Mind-boggling! The explanation for movement in the last three months implies little to no spill over. Wow.

[jimmys]

Mind-boggling! The explanation for movement in the last three months implies little to no spill over. Wow.

It's more like no SO than little. FY 16 is done for EB2-I. It's much probable now EB3I marching ahead of EB2I.

[amulchandra]

It's more like no SO than little. FY 16 is done for EB2-I.

Looks like

1. Very less SO for EB2 I this year. Might still get some and move to 2006/2007 in next quarter when SO kicks in.
2.CO is very cautious this FY to not over allocate EB2 I like he did last year.

I do not want to start any class wars here but..... from EB3 I point of view this might be good as USCIS will be able to focus better on allocating SO numbers to non ported EB3 I applications properly while applying EB2 I-- visas to ported EB3 I applications.

I am expecting a good movement for EB3 I next quarter.

[vishnu]

Prior to FY 2015, CO kept a very 'early' date for EB2 India, only to move aggressively in Q4 for spillover season....

FY 2015 - he moved dates steadily from early on, only to end up overallocating to Eb2 India...

FY 2016 - again he moved dates early on but having learned from FY 2015 went back to an earlier date to avoid overallocating

I remain confident that q4 once he knows spillover trends - and may be he will be super conservative and only allocate in last 2 months, dates will go back to 2009 and end around april 2009... there will be at least 2000 spillover I believe

and as far as his messaging is concerned, well - the less said about that the better

Looks like

1. Very less SO for EB2 I this year. Might still get some and move to 2006/2007 in next quarter when SO kicks in.
2.CO is very cautious this FY to not over allocate EB2 I like he did last year.

I do not want to start any class wars here but..... from EB3 I point of view this might be good as USCIS will be able to focus better on allocating SO numbers to non ported EB3 I applications properly while applying EB2 I-- visas to ported EB3 I applications.

I am expecting a good movement for EB3 I next quarter.

[Immigo]

Mind-boggling! The explanation for movement in the last three months implies little to no spill over. Wow.

The only silver lining is that this may force USCIS to use filing rather than filing rather than final action dates.

[4WatItsWorth]

dates will go back to 2009 and end around april 2009... there will be at least 2000 spillover I believe

The visa bulletin mentions the possibility of dates going back to the May VB level (EB2-I~ Nov2008) only next FY. See extract further below. Based on that, it looks like this year is done.

=========
"...Every effort will be made to return the retrogressed dates to those listed in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin as quickly as possible, once the FY-2017 annual limits take effect October 1, 2016..."
=========

[amulchandra]

The visa bulletin mentions the possibility of dates going back to the May VB level (EB2-I~ Nov2008) only next FY. See extract further below. Based on that, it looks like this year is done.

=========
"...Every effort will be made to return the retrogressed dates to those listed in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin as quickly as possible, once the FY-2017 annual limits take effect October 1, 2016..."
=========

Q and Spec,
I am eagerly waiting to hear your take on June VB. Can you both please share your thoughts?

Thanks
Amul

[GCwaiting]

Q and Spec,
I am eagerly waiting to hear your take on June VB. Can you both please share your thoughts?

Thanks
Amul

Q, Spec & YT
Please mention about EB3-I also in your thoughts. Eagerly waiting to hear. What is your prediction for remainder of FY'16.