I'm not sure how you think you are going to get an EAD "in a few months through sponsorship by your sister".Originally Posted by insane_yogi
Your PD for the FB4 case will be the date the I-130 is received by USCIS. You would not be eligible to file an I-485 under FB4 (and the associated EAD) until that date becomes current.
That's likely to be at least 10 years from now.
An EB case and an FB case can run in parallel. The PD from one cannot be used for the other.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
.
I dont think you can interchange F and E PD's as rightly pointed out of SPEC. USICS will merely acknowledge the receipt of I130 and you have to wait for the PD to become current to get EAD/GC. Till such times you have to wait maintaining a legal status in US.
I'm sure many of you saw that USCIS released the FY2016 Q1 updates to the reports on this page.
Some selected "highlights".
I-485 approvals for EB were relatively low at 24,836, but fairly similar to last year at that time. Approval rate was 95%.
I-485 receipts were 33,828 which is at the higher end.
I-485 pending cases are 125,161 - up from 116,941 at the end of FY2015.
I-140 approvals were 24,395 which is around normal.
I-140 receipts were 32,739 which is a considerable increase on the average of slightly under 25k for FY2015.
I-140 pending cases are 43,509 - up from around 35k in FY2015.
I-526 approvals were very low at 1,257. That was in contrast to high receipts of 6,277. The number of pending cases now stands at 21,988.
I-360 approvals were 6,133. New receipts remain high at 10,089 - nearly double this time last year. Pending I-360 cases are now 15,411.
The I-360 (and therefore EB4 at a later stage) still seem to be driven by the increased numbers of Special Immigrant Juveniles (SIJ).
In FY2016 Q1 there were 3,117 approvals. Receipts were 4,047 and the number pending is now 4,493.
The I-360 and I-526 figures reiterate what has already been said - there should be no expectation of spare numbers from EB4 or EB5, barring calculation errors from CO.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Do you think EB3-ROW dates staying close to the current contributed to the increase?
Any idea is May Visa bulletin getting released today or Monday?
May Visa Bulletin is out. EB2I 2 weeks movement, EB3I 3 weeks:
https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...-may-2016.html
EB3ROW dates did not move. But the twist is that El Salvador, Hondurus and Guatemala now has a cutoff date! Their demand is too high in EB3 and now they are getting capped by 7% quota. If they get out of ROW, is this good news for EB3I?
More worried about following statement.
"During the past month, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand in most categories for cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. If this sudden and unanticipated change in the demand pattern continues, it could impact final action dates in the coming months and possibly require corrective action in some."
But bulletin says El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras has been oversubscribed due to demand in E4 and SR categories, not EB3.
It should be good news I guess ( not an expert). But how come EB3-ROW remained steady ?
There is currently extremely high demand in the E4 and SR categories for applicants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This demand is primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, this requires implementing E4 and SR Application Final Action Dates for these countries, which will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2016 annual limits. Any forward movement during the remainder of FY-2016 is unlikely although no specific prediction is possible.A determination as to whether these countries will remain subject to E4 and SR final application dates under the FY-2017 annual numerical limitation will be made in early September. Future visa availability will depend on a combination of demand for numbers being reported each month, and the extent to which otherwise unused numbers become available.
It is extremely likely that the India and Mexico Employment Fourth Preference categories will also become oversubscribed at some point during the summer months.
Hondurus/El Salvador/Guatemala hardly took a few hundred visas last year. How can they even be capped in the 7%? Unless their demand is so high in SR and E4, that they got capped in overall 7%? Similar to EB Philippines but in reverse? If that's the case, a few hundred visas will hardly cause a dent in the 19k pending EB3I inventory.
The EB3ROW dates remaining steady is probably the effect of high PERM certifications.
I think we should perhaps just look at the El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras retrogression in EB4 at the simplest face value interpretation at present.
Each of those Countries has demand for more visas than their own EB4 allocation plus any likely FA within EB4 will allow. That is why they have been retrogressed.
That's mainly the result of the large numbers of unaccompanied minors from Central America who crossed the southern border in recent years. The vast majority of the EB4 approvals for those Countries will be as Special Immigrant Juveniles.
Last FY, EB4 approvals accounted for more than 80-90% of EB approvals for each of those Countries. Mexico, India (and South Korea) were the other high users of EB4 visas. Together, those 6 Countries accounted for more than 50% of all EB4 approvals in FY2015.
I agree there is an unanswered ambiguity about the 7% question.
Philippines appear to be able to use more visas in the EB3 Category based on lower usage in the other EB Categories and South Korea are able to use more visas in EB Categories because of their low FB usage.
Why is/should it be any different in this case? The 3 Countries retrogressed in EB4 do not approach either the EB, FB or combined EB/FB 7% figures.
I don't understand it either - perhaps it is not understandable, or there is some obscure law/regulation we are unaware of.
Either way, it will not have an effect on either EB2 or EB3 FA. It wouldn't affect FD from EB1/EB4/EB5 either, but I think that's probably academic this FY. I warned some time ago that there would be none from EB4 this year, based on both last FY approvals and the number of I-360 receipts and approvals. We already knew there should be none from EB5.
PS:- What is it with CO and not using either Current or Unavailable? EB3-ROW/M are clearly Current (the FAD is well in front of the PERM certification dates) and a retrogression in EB4 to 01JAN10 is the same as being made Unavailable in all respects.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Hi Spec,
Great analysis, Thanks.
Will the EB3I date reach July 1 2005 (FD announced in Oct 15) in FY'16? When do you think it will happen?
Appreciate if you can reply
I've stopped trying to second guess CO about EB3.
I fear he will repeat the same mistake as last year with EB3-I. The dates need to move forward early enough to ensure that USCIS issue the RFEs and can then process the cases to an approval after a response.
As I understand it, RFEs have yet to be issued in numbers to cases as late as June 2005 for EB3-I applicants. Last FY, the large movements in the COD were only made in August/September. It appears there was not enough time/visas in September to adjudicate sufficient numbers.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Holy cow! I made the cut-off by 1 day. My PD is Nov 21 2008. Last month I got screwed by 12 days. Is this SLOW dripping of visa expected before they apply their trickle down theory in July VB?
Hi Spec
My pd is july 2nd 2009.. if its not happening this year i don't want to waste my time as i'm taking a beating on my career moves a lot and also getting into 40's and compromising on my financial benefits is a big deal breaker and I have been doing this for last 3 yrs in the hopes of getting GC. Well, sorry for venting out my frustration on you but your service seems to be much respected. The question i have is " Will it happen this year for me?" If not i have a huge task in my hand of moving stuff worth 12 yrs way to INDIA and start preparing.. Appreciate your advice.
Thanks
Sorry but July 2009 is not happening this year .... mine is 29th June 2009 and I do not expect it to reach June or May this year. My best case scenario is April 2009 or maybe March 2009
why did you reach that conclusion mfd??? lower or no row spillover?
good thing is eb2 itself is continuing to move with annual allocation...if we can get to end 2008 before spillover season starts, then even the 2400 visas from EB2 M and EB2 Phil should take us to march...and an extra spillover 1000 from eb1 or eb2 row gets us to may/june
if you look at inventory report we are already using SO hence the cautious movt as CO doesn't want to overuse SO .... also as stated SO from EB4, EB5 and maybe EB1 will be nearly 0 or maybe 1k only hope is eb2row say we get approx 4k SO from eb2row I doubt that is sufficient to move dates beyond April 2009 .... I am sticking with my prediction of April 2009 best case .... March 2009 most likely case ... worst case will be Feb 2009
I do not disagree with ur spillover estimates..in fact I think row provides no more than 1-2k, but we get another 2 k from eb2 M and eb2 P = total of 4k at least
but I do think we are not using spillover yet...
looking at eb2 I trackit approvals and multiplying by the historical ratio (which has averaged around 48-50 consistently over the years), eb2 I usage still well within the annual quota... remember, the inventory even in 2008 is not going to go to zero
also, CO talked about spillover in june (so the july bulletin)
and if we believe there is spillover application in eb2, then we must surely think there is spillover application in eb3 also...but that's clearly not the case...
DHS LPR Annual Flow Report FY2014
More than 18 months after the Fiscal Year ended, DHS has finally deigned to publish some figures about Legal Permanent Residents for FY2014, which they have called an "Annual Flow Report".
It's a pathetic 6 page summary which provides no useful information. Where's the proper Yearbook of Immigration Statistics or the data tables?
If you want to waste a few minutes of your life, it can be found here.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks a lot Spec. When, in your opinion, will date move to March2005 (My PD is 23rd). Really appreciate if you can reply !!
The article can be found here at the Fox Rothschild site.
No comment about use by other Countries in EB2 or EB3 of any kind. CO has another meeting today with AILA in Florida. It's possible, though unlikely IMO, he will say more at that meeting.Immigrant Visa Processing Changes – EB2/3 India moves forward; EB2/3 China retrogression expected – Visa Office on Priority Dates, Demand, and Predictions
By Alka Bahal on April 19, 2016
In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).
Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (April 13, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.
This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin and his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.
Family-Based Projections
Because most family-based demand is generated at overseas posts, Charlie has greater visibility into those categories and is able to move the final action dates more consistently than the employment-based categories, which has a high percentage of USCIS-based (adjustment of status) filings. As a result, dramatic fluctuations in the family-based categories tend to be rare and typically occur only when there is a surge in family-based applicants responding to the agent of choice letter and becoming documentarily qualified.
As noted in the May Visa Bulletin, the final action dates for FB-4 China and India will remain at July 22, 2003, consistent with the final action date for FB-4 Worldwide. However, we can expect to see changes soon due to an increase in demand in both of these categories in recent months. The FB-4 India final action date will likely retrogress, possibly as early as June. It may also be necessary to hold or retrogress the FB-4 China final action date in late summer.
New Final Action Date for EB-4 and Certain Religious Workers (SR) Preference Categories
In May, a final action date of January 1, 2010 will be imposed for EB-4 and certain religious workers from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The imposition of a final action date for these countries in these categories is primarily attributable to a spike in demand for adjustment of status over the past two months for Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJS) applicants. As noted in the Bulletin, any forward movement in these categories this fiscal year is unlikely. Charlie advises that the per country limit for this category has already been reached for these countries for this fiscal year. Given EB-4 Worldwide demand, it is unlikely that there will be any additional “otherwise unused numbers” to allocate to these countries.
Similarly, it is extremely likely that EB-4 India and Mexico will also become oversubscribed at some point during the summer months.
EB-5 China.
Although demand in this category is increasing, I-526 petitions are being acted upon more quickly so the final action date may continue to advance slowly. Charlie has good visibility into demand in this category since most of these cases are at the NVC, although they are becoming documentarily qualified at their own pace.
EB-2 and EB-3 Philippines.
EB-2 Philippines remains current and Charlie expects it to remain so for the foreseeable future.
With regard to EB-3 Philippines, Charlie expects the final action date to continue to advance a few months at a time, consistent with movement over the past few months. He does not foresee it returning to the Worldwide final action date this fiscal year.
There is significant pent up demand in this category and given the greater level of visibility into it, Charlie is able to more the final action date consistently. Currently, the Texas Service Center has more than 1,600 EB-3 Philippines cases in the pending demand file and the Nebraska Service Center has more than 1,200. Demand at the U.S. Consulate in Manila is about half of that at USCIS. Charlie hopes that the EB-3 Philippines final action date will advance as far as mid-2010 by the end of this fiscal year.
EB-2 and EB-3 China.
Recently, number usage for EB-3 China has exploded due to the EB-3 downgrade effect that Charlie has been expecting. Although anticipated, there was no advance warning as to when this demand would materialize, to what extent, or for how long. Demand for EB-3 China numbers exceeded 400 in March alone. EB-2 China spiked to 850 in March. April demand in both categories is expected to be at least on par with March demand, and may possibly exceed it. As a result, it would most likely be necessary to retrogress EB-2 and EB-3 China in June in an effort to hold number use within the annual limit.
EB-1 Demand and Impact to Other Categories.
EB-1 demand from USCIS increased almost 100 percent from February (2,500+) to March (5,000+) which reflects more than 95 percent of the EB-1 Worldwide demand. This spike leaves fewer numbers to potentially spill down to other categories, which will impact EB-2 final action dates. Members should expect that the EB categories that typically rely on unused EB-1 numbers, such as EB-2 India, will be impacted. It remains to be seen whether a cut-off date will need to be established for any EB-1 countries this fiscal year.
India Employment-Based Final Action Dates.
The final action date for EB-2 India will advance modestly, from November 8, 2008 in April to November 22, 2008 in May. Similarly, EB-3 India will creep forward from August 8, 2004 in April to September 1, 2004 in May. EB-3 demand, after the initial allocation of numbers, has been increasing by 100 month over month from January to February and February to March.
A number of factors make it difficult for Charlie to accurately predict movement in these categories. Increased EB-1 usage negatively impacts the supply of available visas for EB-2 India, and upgrades are currently driving EB-2 India demand. As a result of these two factors, there may be fewer numbers available to EB-2 India than previously expected.
When USCIS requests an EB-2 number in an upgrade case, it also asks that the previously requested EB-3 number be cancelled. Charlie has no visibility into EB-2 upgrade demand until USCIS completes adjudication of the I-485, requests an EB-2 number, and cancels the EB-3 number. This lack of visibility can potentially result in unexpected and dramatic changes in the EB-2 India final action date, as well as other employment-based preference categories.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
these statesment are always vague / hilarious even..
EB1 has not yielded spillover in years, im actually somewhat positive that he even alludes to the possibility that there could be some
The important statement is "As a result of these two factors, there may be fewer numbers available to EB-2 India than previously expected.". CO is basically hinting that the July 2009 estimate, that he made earlier, is far fetched.
Jagan,
That's my take as well. At the very least he is trying to dampen expectations.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Whatever date DOS sets doesn't matter anymore. The dates set by USCIS bulletin matter....
So even if he sticks to initial projection that is of no use for AOS cases anyways
Did I miss something other than one more dose of (known) negative news?
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