EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB3Iwaiting]

Please let me know why you have calculated 27K * 2?? ... shouldn't it be just 27K?? (Fiscal Year 2015 was fully considered for 27K and hence the question)...

He considered dependents and considered the multiplying factor of 2.0. PERMs are for primary applicants only but AOS applications includes dependents of the primary applicant, hence the multiplication of 2, though it should ideally be 2.1 or 2.2 (some have dependent children).

[usvisas]

From the reports published on the us visas site https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...tatistics.html, it appears Indians got the following numbers. 2015 reports are yet to be published. Do gurus out here know what the 2015 numbers would have been?

EB2 EB3
2015
2014 12978 23527 3465
2013 9640 17193 7763
2012 9506 19726 2758
2011 4563 23997 3954

[EB3Iwaiting]

It is getting pretty obvious that the EB visa stats are purposely not being released because of the pending lawsuit. That also goes for the pending inventory report.

[vyruss]

It is getting pretty obvious that the EB visa stats are purposely not being released because of the pending lawsuit. That also goes for the pending inventory report.

Why is it so "Obvious"? Curious because I saw similar postings on other forums.

[Raj0687]

2014 - EB2I - 23527 .... seems fishy

[qesehmk]

2014 - EB2I - 23527 .... seems fishy

don't forget EB3I->EB2I portings from 2003-2008. All those numbers are included there.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Post July 07 EB3I demand must be very thin. Fewer filings and most have already ported.

[imdeng]

Yup - I expect so too. Just like EB3ROW just zoomed through post 2007, I am expecting that EB3I will move really quickly once it passes the 07/07 threshold.

PS> Although I expected the same for EB2I - that the inventory in low in 2009 so we should zoom through 2009. I couldn't have been more wrong.

Post July 07 EB3I demand must be very thin. Fewer filings and most have already ported.

[knighthood83]

When will 2009 clear? Also once EB3 moves past 2007 where do you think it will stop?

[misanthrope]

So as usual you guys were on the money. I got an email notification of RFE today and I can safely assume it is going to be for Medical Records. I am expected to be current in March VB.

[akshaya8]

copied from other blogs

PERM approval count for countries other than India and china where Decision Year is considered from 01 Jan 2 thru 31st Dec is as given below :

Decision class PERM
Year count
------------------------------------
2007 EB2 1803
2007 EB3 5604
2008 EB2 6546
2008 EB3 15948
2009 EB2 5521
2009 EB3 14816
2010 EB2 11208
2010 EB3 26153
2011 EB2 7338
2011 EB3 13150
2012 EB2 8872
2012 EB3 12201
2013 EB2 4928
2013 EB3 5861
2014 EB2 10718
2014 EB3 13760
2015 EB2 12510
2015 EB3 14870

Probably ROW PERM approved till April'2016 has a chance to be approved in FY2016 Quota.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

[imdeng]

Several numbers don't make sense. Could you please post a link to the source.

copied from other blogs

PERM approval count for countries other than India and china where Decision Year is considered from 01 Jan 2 thru 31st Dec is as given below :

[akshaya8]

http://chatur-chintamani.blogspot.com/

Eb2/EB3 breakup may be not correct as that analysis is quite difficult. But sum of ROW looks to be correct.

one thing is these number doesn't map to consumption of almost 30K EB2 in ROW consistently in last few years.

last 5 years [ Jan 2011 - Jan 2015] ROW EB3 perms approved max number is 60K perms.

Jan 5 2011 EB3 ROW inventory is ROW- 47,627 + MX- 7,552+ PH- 9,700 = ~65k
Oct 2015 EB3 ROW[MX+PH] inventory is 15K

Average 10K Inventory reduced over 5 years + Assumption is last year EB3 got ~3K spillover.

probably most of EB3 cases may be treated as EB2 in the analysis. these number reinforce that we can expect surprise for EB3 this year As inventory at the start of the year is low and USCIS carry forward this level of inventory to next year

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3ROW pending inventory has been holding steady at around 11k from 07/2014. It went down to 8k at 1/1/2015. All this while the dates moved forward 3 years clearing all its backlog. Now the pending inventory remains at 11k (as per the Oct report, the jan report may have the numbers even lower), and ROW dates have no where else to advance.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB3ROW pending inventory has been holding steady at around 11k from 07/2014. It went down to 8k at 1/1/2015. All this while the dates moved forward 3 years clearing all its backlog. Now the pending inventory remains at 11k (as per the Oct report, the jan report may have the numbers even lower), and ROW dates have no where else to advance.

Everyone sees that. Looks like DOS will be making EB3ROW Current for Final Action in April VB, wait for 2 more months and start Spill Over in July VB moving EB3I to 31st Dec, 2004.

[viveksawhney]

So as usual you guys were on the money. I got an email notification of RFE today and I can safely assume it is going to be for Medical Records. I am expected to be current in March VB.

whats your PD ?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Didn't CO say that he will start applying SO from June VB?

"Charlie predicts that the June Visa Bulletin will be more eventful. Charlie expects greater changes to final action dates and for unused numbers to move down to other categories in June."

What I do not get is why was EB3I moved to Dec 04 and then retrogressed? The demand is very well known and there is no need to "generate demand" that the dates need to be moved forward aggressively. Why move it to Dec 04 aggressively only to retrogress it back to March? Now, even with 1 month movement per VB, we get to Sep 04 in the May VB. Reaching Dec 04 with the "first SO" would only take us to where we were in Sep 2015. Is that what you think? Are you basing this on the fact that everyone with Dec 04 PDs have gotten RFEs and no one after that?

[amulchandra]

Pending inventory released.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...01-12-2016.pdf

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pending inventory released.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...01-12-2016.pdf

The only thing that is obvious is that EB2I is hosed. It has been obvious for a while..but somehow Ostriches refused to believe it! Heavy demand in EB1, heavy demand in EB2ROW and porters will combine to make this FY a nightmare! In fact only porters will be getting GC's this FY.

[rbusgc]

How come the numbers for EB2I increased from previous inventory to new one for 2009 Aug to 2010 Jan dates???... Those dates where never current during the last 3 months for USCIS to accept any new I485s? Not sure what is going on with USCIS.

[YTeleven]

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

I am not a numbers guy but if your predictions are true which I think they are then it just sucks for all of us backlogged people. With May, 2011 PD, I would probably get greened in 2021 or later. Hopefully, I would have made up my mind by that time to either stay here or go back to India and would have got some mental peace.

[mfd1402]

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

Thanks for the analysis , do you feel that the dates will move to Jul 2009 or Aug 2009 for EB2I in FY 2016 or is that also not possible due to the porting

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Thanks for the analysis , do you feel that the dates will move to Jul 2009 or Aug 2009 for EB2I in FY 2016 or is that also not possible due to the porting

I would be very surprised if it did. As I mentioned in my post, only porters will gobble up ALL the Visas this year.

[vishnu]

I would be very surprised if it did. As I mentioned in my post, only porters will gobble up ALL the Visas this year.

Too pessimistic in my opinion

The inventory now includes all porting up to July 2009 (sure a few may be missing but not consequential)

This was as of Jan 12 so demand where dates were moved to feb 08. Either way only
Some demand would have cleared at that point, so net increase of 1500 doesn't amount o much porting.

So we wait for spillover and just 6k takes us to June 2009.

This inventory itself doesn't provide insight on spillover - for that we rely on recent co comments that there will be some from eb1 and eb2 row.

If we close year in summer 2009, next year will be more significantly from the trends yteleven pointed out - downgrades etc. I see deep 2010 by end of next year.