But aren't these dates only reference? USCIS decides who can file I-485.Originally Posted by CleanSock
https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletin-feb-16
DOS had Jul 1,2009 as filing date for EB2-I in Feb 16 VB but USCIS's filing date was Aug 01,2008.
But aren't these dates only reference? USCIS decides who can file I-485.
https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletin-feb-16
DOS had Jul 1,2009 as filing date for EB2-I in Feb 16 VB but USCIS's filing date was Aug 01,2008.
Yup - there seems to be this giant resistance to accept that EB3ROW is actually C and has been for a while. After some time there will be no choice but to accept. Changing the FD to C is the first step.
EB-3C might actually catch up with EB-3ROW. EB-2C is going to see bunch of downgrades to EB-3C. EB-C overall might actually catch up to EB-ROW overall. That would be insane!
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Was checking ..... http://www.immigration-law.com "THE OH LAW FIRM"
State Department Prediction for Visa Availability in the Coming Month
EB-Based Categories (potential monthly movement)
EB-1: Current
EB-2:
Worldwide: Current
China: Up to five months.
India: Up to three months.
EB-3:
Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date.
China: Up to five months.
India: Up to one month.
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
Philippines: Up to four months.
EB-4: Current for most countries
EB-5: The category will remain "Current" for most countries. China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.
The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.
I am a very disappointed by the last statement of DOS.... "The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns" .....
Does this mean that SO to EB3I will happen only in July-Qtr ??
Looking at the EB3 ROW current status, thought that there will be SO to EB3I in Apr-Qtr.
Those are the most important words and the ones that yield their own prediction useless. why? because for backlogged countries due to the retrogression the demand thins out as u go back in time.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks qesehmk !!!
Nice catch.
Definitely "...current applicant demand patterns....." will not remain the same. It would change.
Hope this change turns positive for EB3 I. Brings new hope :-) !!
It has been a very long & painful wait for more than a decade & half. This has really taught me what life is all about.
Considering that EB2ROW has been Current and EB2I gets spillover only in the last quarter of the year (ignoring exceptions like 2012), the same might happen with EB3I even after EB3ROW becomes C. CO might wait until the last three months of FY for any SO to EB3I.
Have patience everyone - its gonna happen. I know how hard this wait is - but like everything else - this too shall pass.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
i hope I have my job till then. have been hanging on to it for last so many years and with the current state of stock markets I am just hoping I can hang on for atleast one more yearcant imagine giving up after enduring so much ...
So the spillover will only happen in the last quarter (July/Aug/Sep) and until then the EB2 dates would either crawl or stagnate? Reason I ask is because we have travel plans in April end and my PD is Nov 20, 2008. I am a month + change away from being current and it would suck to get a RFE for medical around the time we have to travel. FYI, I we submitted our medicals in Sep 2014. While I am on this, does EVERYONE with medical records older than a year get a RFE now?
There will be no SO until last few months - but EB2I dates are moving with regular numbers. Mar VB saw 2.5 months movement from Feb VB. So you may be current in Apr VB.
Medicals are valid for 1 year from the day USCIS receives them. Once they are expired, new valid ones are needed for approval. No way around that I believe.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?
I am sure the gurus here can make a good assessment of that once they see the inventoryIt should be out by now but for some reason is not yet!
With respect to FY2016 , can someone advise what month is FY2016 ending for visa category and bulletin. if someone says SO will happen 3 months before fy2016 ends does he mean July 2016 ( 3 months before Oct ) or Sept 2016 ( 3 months before Dec 2016 )
I hope they come out with the inventory report and the pending lawsuit doesn't impact it in any manner...I am sure the gurus here can make a good assessment of that once they see the inventory
Not once we reach into 2009. Latter half of 2008 has been current enough number of times that much of the porting demand from there has already been sucked out. 2009 on the other hand should have more porting cases that will slow down the movement. Even straight inventory in after last year's high water mark is high enough that not much movement will happen there without SO.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
FY starts Oct 1st - so last three month of FY16 would be July-Aug-Sep. Traditionally Aug has been the large spillover month. Sep is for mop-over duty and to make sure quotas are fully used.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Light@EOT - Do you anticipate your I-140 being withdrawn once you leave your employer. If not then with AC21 you are in good shape.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
1. Any movement beyond Oct 2008 will be possible only after using SO.
2. CO will be using small chunks of SO to support the forward movement.
3. The prediction is up to 3 months. So it may be anywhere from 0 months to 3 months. I believe it will move in increments of 1 month every VB until June 2009, and after that it will be moving ahead depending on how much SO is unused.
Perm Approvals from Jan'09 to Apr'10
Month----EB2----EB3
Jan'09----828----276
Feb'09----539----180
Mar'09---1069----356
Apr'09---2259----753
May'09---1196----399
Jun'09----937----312
Jul'09------3----1
Aug'09----160----53
Sept'09---637----212
Oct'09---1139----380
Nov'09---1028----343
Dec'09---1230----410
Jan'10---1662----554
Feb'10---1905----635
Mar'10---2762----921
Apr'10---1572----524
Total---18926----6309
current 485 inventory for this time frame is 15K, based on EB3 perm approvals potentially 25% more inventory added for this time frame from porting alone.
Moving past April 2010 looks not possible before 2018
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Very useful information. So the filing date my move till Mar 2010 and Final date may move till Nov 2009 at the good case. In Best case final date may move till Jan 2010 and Filing date my move till May 2010.
The numbers for July doesn't make sense. Just 4 applications? Plus the 485 inventory is significantly more.
PERM approved in FY2015(9/30/2015)
Determination---FY--------Q1------------Q2--------Q3-------Q4
Certified--------78,938----16,172-----20,173----17,740---24,853
Denied-----------5,851------1,065---------999-----1,779-----2,008
Withdrawn-------4,362------1,103-------1,091----1,072-----1,096
Top Countries of Citizenship
India----------45,670---58%
China-----------6,411 8%
South Korea--4,895----6%
Canada--------2,962---4%
78,938
52,081 (India + China)
--------
26,857- ROW
EB2 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
EB3 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
68K - 54K (ROW 27K perms * 2) = 14 K spillover
Assuming similar perm ratios continued in first 2 Quarters of FY16 & USCIS maintains similar inventory in the pipe at the end of Sept'16. We can expect around 14K spillover for India (for EB2 and EB3 together). we can expect at least to clear half of current inventory i.e. 14K + 6K = 20K from 39K Pending india EB2 and EB3 Inventory. how ever high usage of ROW in EB2 and EB3 to EB2 porting in india category majority of reduction around 15K may happen in EB3 India
How far can that move the EB2-I PD to? Is Nov2009 possible?
same question but for EB3I? Also since EB3 Row filing are less than Eb2 more SO should go to EB3I? Am I correct in assuming that?
all that would be so easy to predict if we could get the quarterly inventory of pending I-485. But alas we live in the dark ages of exploitation.
Please let me know why you have calculated 27K * 2?? ... shouldn't it be just 27K?? (Fiscal Year 2015 was fully considered for 27K and hence the question)...
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