EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[geterdone]

Hi Spec, I have seen what Ron had posted and it is exactly same the way you have it here. Ron receives this from AILA and it is only handed out to members, AILA does not publish it which means AILA is the only one who has access to CO and ask him questions, we are completely blocked out. AILA also asks their members NOT to post the exact words on their blogs and that's why we see the lawyers' write-ups as THEIR analysis of CO's words and not the actual words. Ron posts the EXACT words in the forum to a certain group of core members and asks them NOT to copy paste but apparently someone always does.

If we look at CO's words as posted in Ron's forum, he makes no mention of EB3ROW low demand or how it could affect EB3I movement. But the links you posted do say that "Charlie also predicts that EB-3 Other Countries filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." If Charlie did say that, apparently its not in Ron's text. But that should be good news for EB3I.

Why is everything so secret? This is not some intellectual property or a top secret stuff. Why can't CO communicate with everybody and not just with lawyers? So much for transparency!

[imdeng]

Well - what I am reading in all the quotes is that EB2ROW demand is lower (even if slightly) and EB3ROW demand is lower as well. So *some* spillover will happen. That's good enough for me at this point. The bar is quite low for good news these days.

Interesting summer coming up.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for the additional info. Could you post the link to where Ron reported this. I can't find it, probably because the forum has become such a mess.

I think EB3-I will have a good year, although not possibly as good as the most optimistic predictions I have seen. I suspect that if USCIS could pick and choose which application filing dates they could use, they would allow EB3-I filing at the same date as NVC. I hope to see the EB3-I FAD advance into 2006 by the end of the FY.

Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS.

On the EB2 side, CO says "EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades". I'm not convinced that means anything. The demand was expected to subside as the PERM peak worked its way through in FY2015. It would be extremely worrying if it had not reduced. It only appears to have reduced to normal historical levels. At the current run rate, it appears there might be some, but not excessive, FA within EB2 from ROW. I can't comment on M or P. I think CO overstates porting in the WW category.

Looking forward to the link.

Hi Spec,

It took me a while to find the text in Ron's forum. With so many members, now there are "layers" of protections and different "categories" of members have access to different information. As you said, the forum has become a mess. Below is the text.

"Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim: January 19, 2016
Waiting List. On January 8, 2016, the State Department published its Annual Report of Immigrant Visa Applicants as of November 1, 2015, with the total number of immigrant visa applicants (i.e., principals, spouses, and children) who are subject to the annual numerical limits and whose cases are on file at the National Visa Center. This "Waiting List" does not include individuals whose immigrant visa petitions are pending at USCIS. Charlie is not aware of any efforts by USCIS to create and/or publish a similar waiting list at this time.

EB-2 India: In November, Charlie predicted that EB-2 India might advance up to eight months in each of the coming months. In the February 2016 Visa Bulletin, EB-2 India surpassed Charlie's earlier prediction, advancing to August 1, 2008. This aggressive forward movement is the result of less demand in the category than that which was previously anticipated and reflects a strategy of advancing dates more aggressively earlier in the year in an effort to ensure that cases can be completed and all visa numbers used within the fiscal year.

The lower demand in recent months may be attributable to fewer EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades than expected, or it may be that the last advancement sufficiently captured the bulk of the demand. Low demand may also be the result of USCIS working through a backlog of EB-2 India cases, which would give the appearance that demand has tapered off. Charlie indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement.

EB-2 Worldwide: EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades.

EB-2 and EB-3 China: The EB-2 China Final Action Date will continue to lag behind the EB-3 China Final Action Date in February, though the surge in EB-2 demand seems to be abating. While demand was high for EB-2 China in October, demand decreased in November by about half, and was relatively low in December. Demand for EB-3 China is also on the low side, such that the first quarter usage target for this category was not met. As a result, EB-3 China continues to advance, which may spur an influx of downgrades, which could ultimately rebalance the two categories as we have seen over the past two years. Charlie expects this rebalancing to occur at some point over the next few months. In the meantime, both EB-2 and EB-3 China are expected to continue to advance in March.

Coming Attractions: No special features or future predictions are expected to be published in the March 2016 Visa Bulletin. Charlie may be revising some of the dates in the "Dates for Filing" chart in the April Bulletin, primarily in the family-based categories. It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low.

QUESTION FOR CHARLIE: Do the numbers reported on the Waiting List for EB-3 Philippines reflect actual visa demand for this category? It has been suggested by some that as many as 80% of the 28,102 individuals listed in the report will not pursue their visa applications as a result of the visa backlog and lack of priority date movement over the years. If in fact actual demand to date has been less than expected, are you considering adjusting the priority date cut-off for this category?

ANSWER: Number use for EB-3 Philippines is at a fairly reasonable level for this point in the year. We have 5,000+ applicants which have already been reported to VO, and are only awaiting forward movement of the cut-off date. The cut-off date will continue to advance, but how quickly remains to be seen.

The "lag time" does not seem to have resulted in a lack of demand. The reason for the rapid movement of this date in FY 2015 was that we had worked through the eligible demand which was reported for overseas processing, and USCIS demand (approximately 950) was extremely low during the first four months of FY 2015. During the next three months, demand from USCIS exploded (approximately 3,000), perhaps due to a decreasing processing backlog."

[Spectator]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks so much for the effort in finding this. It's much appreciated.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks so much for the effort in finding this. It's much appreciated.

No problem Spec. I wanted to pick your brain on something, particularly, where you said "Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS."

Now we only have inventory data up to July 07 for EB3I. That date is already current in EB2I, so whoever ports before that date should be able to file AOS. Doesn't the inventory get reduced at that time? At what point does the inventory "actually reduce" from EB3I and get counted into EB2I? Most from 05/06/07 may have already ported so I am trying to understand your statement about difficulty in managing EB3I effectively. People porting after July 07 PDs have no effect on EB3I inventory. It would be great if you can explain this a bit more.

Finally, the PERM stats, the pending inventory report in Oct (I am hoping the one coming out in Feb will give a clearer picture) and even CO said that EB3ROW demand is low. It is probably a matter of time when he starts applying SO. Being conservative, I am expecting around 10k spillover? Is that too much? Even if EB3I gets 10K SO, add the 3k quota and around 2k porting, and EB3I reduces the inventory by 15k taking us to mid 2006.

Is that being too optimistic?

[Spectator]

No problem Spec. I wanted to pick your brain on something, particularly, where you said "Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS."

Now we only have inventory data up to July 07 for EB3I. That date is already current in EB2I, so whoever ports before that date should be able to file AOS. Doesn't the inventory get reduced at that time? At what point does the inventory "actually reduce" from EB3I and get counted into EB2I? Most from 05/06/07 may have already ported so I am trying to understand your statement about difficulty in managing EB3I effectively. People porting after July 07 PDs have no effect on EB3I inventory. It would be great if you can explain this a bit more.

EB3Iwaiting,

Here's my understanding.

Firstly, I agree that the effect in the EB3-I Inventory has lessened over time, since EB2-I has regularly surpassed the latest July 2007 Inventory date for EB3-I.

Firstly, USCIS cannot complete interfiling of a case from EB3 to EB2 until the EB2 COD for the PD is current. That's explained in the AFM. Until the interfiling is complete, USCIS cannot show the case under EB2 in the Inventory.

Secondly, CO has said in the past that once a case is interfiled, it shows in both the EB2 and EB3 pending demand ( and presumably also the USCIS Inventory). It is only removed from both files when the case is approved.

The current EB2-I Inventory for later years (Nov 2008 onward) is now probably quite understated because many porting cases have an approved I-140 under EB2, but their ported PD has not yet become current under EB2. It's particularly true for cases beyond a COD of 01MAY09. Hopefully, the pent up demand through June 2009 will reflect in the next published USCIS Inventory, since the Filing Date was set at 01JUL09 for a couple of months in Oct/Nov 2015.

The numbers porting from the period up to July 2007 does not appear to be trivial, even though it is reducing. Between the October 2014 and October 2015 Inventories (FY2015) there was a reduction in the EB3-I Inventory of 2.7k from PDs beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date. The majority of those were probably porting cases.

For demand planning purposes, it would make more sense if the USCIS Inventory reflected cases ready to be interfiled (when current) as EB2 and remove them from the EB3 Inventory. That would give advance warning of the true likely EB2-I demand and also reflect the lower likely EB3-I demand. The DOS pending demand file would remain unchanged, since the visa could not be requested until the case was current under EB2, but USCIS could communicate their anticipated revised demand to DOS for FAD and Filing Date calculations.

Possibly, when it is working properly, this is the intent of the new Filing Date concept, but it appears only to give more accurate demand for EB2-I, without reducing the EB3-I demand.

[amulchandra]

I feel very sick. EB3 I is not even mentioned in this whole conversation. Looks like, as always, it is a forgotten category. EB3 I is only alive on online forums.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Here's my understanding.

Thanks for taking the time for this detailed explanation Spec. It is true that EB2I demand is probably more than what is reflected as the new porting numbers will only show up when the EB2I Filing Date gets current. We do agree that around 2k with PDs before July 07 continue to port to EB2I and I completely agree with your statement "Between the October 2014 and October 2015 Inventories (FY2015) there was a reduction in the EB3-I Inventory of 2.7k from PDs beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date. The majority of those were probably porting cases."

Now coming to demand planning purposes, we have no idea of demand for EB3I after July 07. Since its been almost a decade, many may have already ported but there is no data as to how many are remaining in EB3I in late 07, 08 etc. Like you said, that is probably where the Filing Date concept will come in handy, if USCIS actually chooses to use it. DOS will want to move the Final Action date and USCIS will either tell everyone to use the Final Action Date (and undo Filing Date concept like they are doing now), or actually ask people to file as per Filing Date (by moving it forward 1 year or 2) and get a sense of the EB3I demand post July 07. But that will only happen once the current inventory is close to getting wiped out.

Also, did you purposely choose NOT to comment on my last paragraph about expecting around 15k EB3I inventory to be wiped out by end of this FY?

[EB3Iwaiting]

I feel very sick. EB3 I is not even mentioned in this whole conversation. Looks like, as always, it is a forgotten category. EB3 I is only alive on online forums.

Unless and until SO starts going to EB3I, it is business as usual and there will be no mention of it. We should take positive from the statement " It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." That will have a direct effect on EB3I, but until that happens, it is a forgotten category.

[anuprab]

Unless and until SO starts going to EB3I, it is business as usual and there will be no mention of it. We should take positive from the statement " It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." That will have a direct effect on EB3I, but until that happens, it is a forgotten category.

this is so effed up! so porting will increase EB2I demand in all stats and inventories but wont reduce demand in other categories from where it originally ported from. So in effect both EB2I and EB3I will be stuck until all the porters get their greencards!!! this is ridiculous...why cant they take the case out from Eb3I once the 140 has been interfiled in EB2 is beyond my understanding. Its as if the whole universe is against EB3I here....sorry for being so dramatic but its about time EB3I dates move !!!!!

[Suva2001]

this is so effed up! so porting will increase EB2I demand in all stats and inventories but wont reduce demand in other categories from where it originally ported from. So in effect both EB2I and EB3I will be stuck until all the porters get their greencards!!! this is ridiculous...why cant they take the case out from Eb3I once the 140 has been interfiled in EB2 is beyond my understanding. Its as if the whole universe is against EB3I here....sorry for being so dramatic but its about time EB3I dates move !!!!!

I am EB3-I but I see a valid logic for USCIS here. Officially both the applications are pending only the later application getting the earlier PD. If EB3-I becomes current before EB2-I then they would approve EB3-I application instead of EB2-I and that's the whole reason to keep both the applications alive. Though it's not practical for India but it's practical for China. So don't blame them.

Thanks

[Spectator]

I am EB3-I but I see a valid logic for USCIS here. Officially both the applications are pending only the later application getting the earlier PD. If EB3-I becomes current before EB2-I then they would approve EB3-I application instead of EB2-I and that's the whole reason to keep both the applications alive. Though it's not practical for India but it's practical for China. So don't blame them.

Thanks

Suva2001,

You're right of course but there is a twist with USCIS procedures.

Interfiling is a request to change the basis of the I-485 approval from one approved I-140 to another (say EB3 to EB2). The AFM says a written request must be made to do so. Once that has been actioned (when the EB2 PD is current), another written request is needed if the applicant then wishes to change the basis for approval back to the EB3 I-140.

For USCIS, the case can only be approved under one category at a time (the last requested by the applicant). They should not (according to their own procedures) approve the case under a different category just because that becomes current first. So there's no sense in USCIS showing the case in more than one category at any point in time.

Regardless, it shouldn't be rocket science for USCIS to compile figures of potential upcoming category changes due to pending interfiling requests and the number of cases that have I-140 approvals under both EB2 and EB3. They clearly don't have this information, because CO has commented frequently that he has no visibility of porting cases until they are approved.

On the Chinese forums, there are cases where people have downgraded to EB3 then back to EB2 and then back to EB3, chasing and missing a current PD. They have had to inform USCIS of each change.

[self.coach]

Folks, how does USCIS determine change of processing center. I was in a state where the processing center should be Texas and now I have moved to a state where the processing center should be Nebraska. I submitted AR-11 and AC-21 during job change, got my EAD renewed. In the latest document I got from USCIS, I read somewhere that the document was still processed by the Texas center.

1) Will USCIS change the center from Texas to Nebraska?
2) Will it affect my greencard chances positively?
3) Can this relocation have any negative impact on my i485?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Suva2001,

You're right of course but there is a twist with USCIS procedures.

Interfiling is a request to change the basis of the I-485 approval from one approved I-140 to another (say EB3 to EB2). The AFM says a written request must be made to do so. Once that has been actioned (when the EB2 PD is current), another written request is needed if the applicant then wishes to change the basis for approval back to the EB3 I-140.

For USCIS, the case can only be approved under one category at a time (the last requested by the applicant). They should not (according to their own procedures) approve the case under a different category just because that becomes current first. So there's no sense in USCIS showing the case in more than one category at any point in time.

Regardless, it shouldn't be rocket science for USCIS to compile figures of potential upcoming category changes due to pending interfiling requests and the number of cases that have I-140 approvals under both EB2 and EB3. They clearly don't have this information, because CO has commented frequently that he has no visibility of porting cases until they are approved.

On the Chinese forums, there are cases where people have downgraded to EB3 then back to EB2 and then back to EB3, chasing and missing a current PD. They have had to inform USCIS of each change.

Spec, this is great insight. Thanks for the info. If an applicant has to provide a letter to tell USCIS which category they want to belong to (EB3 or EB2), that means the applicant actually exists in only one category and not both. Earlier I was under the impression that since both I-140s are valid, in the eyes of USCIS, the applicant exists in both categories and hence, they were double counted. That can only be removed once GC is issued. But clearly that is not the case. The applicant has to tell USCIS that they want to be either in EB2 or EB3, so shouldn't USCIS be able to make adjustments accordingly?

Just when I think USCIS could not be any more lazy or inefficient, they come back to surprise me.

[Spectator]

EB3Iwaiting,

It's my understanding based on the publicly available information. What happens in practice is another matter.

Suva does raise a very valid point though. It would be an administrative nightmare to keep changing records, particularly when you get into the Chinese situation. Perhaps USCIS resource is better spent actually approving cases. Syncing that with the DOS IVAMS system is another matter. Technically, the applicant does (eventually) have a basis under 2 different employment based categories to become an LPR. The DOS pending demand file reflects that situation we are led to believe. I can see both sides of the coin, even if I would prefer to see one scenario over the other.

[anuprab]

EB3Iwaiting,

It's my understanding based on the publicly available information. What happens in practice is another matter.

Suva does raise a very valid point though. It would be an administrative nightmare to keep changing records, particularly when you get into the Chinese situation. Perhaps USCIS resource is better spent actually approving cases. Syncing that with the DOS IVAMS system is another matter. Technically, the applicant does (eventually) have a basis under 2 different employment based categories to become an LPR. The DOS pending demand file reflects that situation we are led to believe. I can see both sides of the coin, even if I would prefer to see one scenario over the other.

Spec, you are right. I had this conversation with my lawyer as my spouse case is in EB2 and mine in EB3. they said the same thing if we interfile to his EB2 but dates under EB3 move ahead, we have to interfile again asking me to be primary. I know this situation is slightly different than porting cases where the primary applicant is the same but drives home the point that USCIS doesn't take the case out from the other category even when they have interfiling request. However atleast for EB3 I sake I am assuming this will not impact much as most with 2005 or 06 PD will have already ported and got their greencard. It will make a big difference post 2008 dates for both categories.

[asankaran]

Hi Guys,

I will be travelling to India\Chennai after 3 years and would be using EAD/AP. I will be transiting via Doha. Is there anything I have to carry additional documents apart from EAD\AP I may have to carry ? Any recent experiences.

Thanks.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hi Guys,

I will be travelling to India\Chennai after 3 years and would be using EAD/AP. I will be transiting via Doha. Is there anything I have to carry additional documents apart from EAD\AP I may have to carry ? Any recent experiences.

Thanks.

NO! You don't need to carry anything else.

[givemegc]

asankaran:

Suggest you carry receipt notices for I-485 and paystub for last few months. Additionally will recommend you carry a folder with all immigration docs like previous H1-B, Employment letter, Few Utility bills and proof of address etc. I have never been questioned on these but better to be safe than sorry. A lot of officer still do not understand EAD/AP card properly esp if you are entering US from small airport.

[Spectator]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2016.html

EB2-I - 15OCT08
EB3-I - 15JUL04
EB3-ROW - 01JAN16

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:

F1: Three to five weeks
F2A: Up to one month
F2B: Up to three weeks
F3: Up to four weeks
F4: Three to four weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Up to five months.

India: Up to three months.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of
demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date.

China: Up to five months.
India: Up to one month.
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
Philippines: Up to four months.

Employment Fourth: Current for most countries

Employment Fifth: The category will remain "Current" for most countries.

China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

Notable compared to any previous predictions is that EB4 is likely to retrogress for some Countries. That means there may be no SO from EB4 in FY2016. Not surprising given the large uptick in I-360 receipts and approvals.

[CleanSock]

Not much movement for EB2I in this bulletin OCT 2008

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2016.html

[Jagan01]

They plan to move the EB2I dates ahead in the coming months. So looks like early conservative amount of SO will be applied.

[CleanSock]

How come DF for China moved but not for India? Is it because we are still far away from reaching that date?

[amulchandra]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2016.html

EB2-I - 15OCT08
EB3-I - 15JUL04
EB3-ROW - 01JAN16



Notable compared to any previous predictions is that EB4 is likely to retrogress for some Countries. That means there may be no SO from EB4 in FY2016. Not surprising given the large uptick in I-360 receipts and approvals.

The Filing dates are finally current for EB3 Row. Do you think they are preparing to make EB3 ROW current in the next VB? Does this mean a good SO for EB3 I? Your thoughts are appreciated.

Thank you very much

Amul

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3ROW Final Action Date has moved to 1 Jan 2016. So, technically the category is current. I think this shows that EB3ROW demand continues to be low. As to what CO said:

"Employment Third:

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of
demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date."

he is being conservative considering this is the first time it has happened since July 07. He is finding it extremely difficult to accept that EB3ROW demand is actually low.