Yes, saw that on trackitt. Hopefully, dates move to Dec 2004 in the next VB.Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
Yes, saw that on trackitt. Hopefully, dates move to Dec 2004 in the next VB.
1A. EB3ROW should be Current in March 2016 Visa Bulletin and SO should also happen in March VB. Valid medicals are requested and can be done in 1 Week.
2A. The effect of EB3I movement on EB2I will only be known in FY17. Per current trend, EB3I should catch up with EB2I in FY17.
I agree with 2A. Porting will continue as long as EB3I does not catch up with EB2I.
Page 51 of http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fil...Report_508.pdf
3.3 I-140 & I-360 Filing Receipts by Preference Category (FY 2009 through 2014)*
EB1 EB2 EB3* EB4
FY Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts
2009 17,157 19,801 19,959 6,880
2010 17,584 38,563 23,470 4,847
2011 17,106 47,576 19,929 6,639
2012 17,609 45,870 10,926 5,934
2013 20,258 46,720 4,617 8,649
2014 22,874 63,644 485 6,949
Grand
Total 112,588 262,174 79,386 39,898
Source: Information provided by USCIS (Nov. 18, 2014).
From this EB2 I is in trouble? EB3I march ahead of EB2 I - the only spillover hope for EB2 I and EB3 I is from ROW quota from respective EB2 & EB3 category.
prospectives for EB3 I looks good and also EB3 I consuming EB2I quota with porting
Edited version of akshaya8's post for readability.
I-140 & I-360 Filing Receipts by Preference Category (FY 2009 through 2014)
----------EB1-------EB2-------EB3-------EB4
FY------- Receipts -Receipts -Receipts -Receipts
2009------17,157----19,801----19,959----6,880
2010------17,584----38,563----23,470----4,847
2011------17,106----47,576----19,929----6,639
2012------17,609----45,870----10,926----5,934
2013------20,258----46,720----4,617-----8,649
2014------22,874----63,644----485-------6,949
Total-----112,588---262,174---79,386----39,898
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I genuinely hope this creates some serious fwd movement in EB3 this year, will be interesting to know the EB3 2015 numbers but I guess its too much to ask from DHS
Looking at the EB3 numbers, it is understandable how EB3ROW got cleared of last 3 years inventory last fiscal year. What bothers me is that why is CO still not advancing EB3ROW dates? Seems he is being extra conservative as this is completely unknown territory. Unless there is huge demand in 2015, which I doubt there is, shouldn't EB3ROW be already C? Or is he simply waiting to apply SO to justify making EB3ROW "C"?
I would think the 2014 numbers are not factual. A Typo. Just ignore them. When we get the 2015 report, hopefully the numbers will be revised and corrected.
Hopefully they go ahead and release the I485 Pending report for Jan 2016 sometime next week.
This year should be a good year, and I sincerely hope most of us are greened.
Well, even if it's a typo, it's likely still in the 4 digit rage. If there are really only 4-5k EB3 filings, there should still be plenty of spillover for EB3I even at a 2x dependency ratio. Maybe this is the relief valve at least as far as porting is concerned? Spec or someone can chime in about how this would impact EB2-I dates, but I'm guessing it would only benefit...
2009 EB2 and EB3 split is 50:50
By 2013 It is 90:10
In 2013 EB3 ROW was pre-2007, Who want to do in EB3? 485 is low or may be incorrect but even if we assume 5K it translates into 10 K demand. The EB3 ROW demand is low for 2014
ROW people can work 5 years on H1B and start Greent card in EB2. Why do they want to start in EB3 when the priority dates are 7 years behind.
Also another factor is for people filed for perm in 2013 rejection ratio was 30% to 40% it used to take 9 - 12 months. so probably another reason for low number 1-140 filing in 2014.
EB2 I & EB3 I perm approvals till 2010 vs EB2 India Inventory.
This comparison is trend only, as perm approved in Jan means it might have priority data of at least 4 before that
Comparing EB2 485 Inventory with EB2 perm approvals. looks More than 50% of EB2 I PERM approvals are for porting or employer change.
Month--------EB2I------EB3I------EB2 485 Inevtory
Aug-08------637------212
Sep-08------656------219
Oct-08------487-------162
Nov-08------361------120
Dec-08------65--------22
Jan-09------828-------276------424
Feb-09------539-------180------438
Mar-09----1069-------356------436
Apr-09----2259-------753------428
May-09---1196-------399------1049
Jun-09-----937-------312------1070
Jul-09---------3-------1---------998
Aug-09-----160-------53-------832
Sep-09-----637-------212-----1023
Oct-09----1139-------380-----1147
Nov-09----1028------343-----1009
Dec-09----1230------410-----1186
Jan-10------662------554------1082
Feb-10----1905------635------1094
Mar-10----2762------921------1307
Apr-10----1572------524------1278
May-10----2780------927------7
Jun-10----2030------677
Jul-10-----2426------809
Aug-10----1919------640
Sep-10----1244------415
Oct 2014 to Oct 2015 EB2 I & EB3 I inventory reduced by 10,600.
last year EB3 ROW moved 3 years, Still starting inventory at beginning of the year same as last year. So this year EB3 I should be getting good numbers from EB3 ROW quota, potentially it will move in to 2007.
prospects for EB2 is not good till
-----------ROW demand balances between EB2 & EB3
-----------Porting goes down.
we may see some shift in trend for next year 2017 quota.
again my same concern. why aren't people beyond 2004 seeing RFEs then, what is USCIS waiting for?
Usually USCIS takes a step by step approach. May be they want to clear 2004 first. Might wait and see for the remaining available spill over , calculate the demand and move to the next year. AT that point of time they might start sending RFEs from 2005 onward.
Is USCIS that smart? My wishful thinking may be!
Saw a link to this article on Trackitt. The article can be found here or here
I'm not sure what to make of it. It's an analysis by the author rather than CO's actual words. That is less useful - it's impossible to distinguish which is which. Hopefully Ron Gotcher will publish what he said. Oddly, I cannot find any AILA posting about this, which is strange given that is usually the original source. It's clearly recent, since it references the updated EB3-P numbers from the NVC report. That was only updated on January 8, 2016.
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Visa Bulletin Predictions by Charles Oppenheim - January 2016
The following are the most updated predictions regarding the Visa Bulletin by Charles Oppenheim, Visa Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, through AILA's DOS Liaison Committee:
EB-2 India Advanced More than Expected: Charlie predicted in last November that there would be about eight months of advancement in EB-2 India in the coming months. This category actually has advanced more significantly. For example, in February's Visa Bulletin, it moves forward by six months. There are two reasons for this rapid advancement. First, there has been less demand than previously anticipated because of fewer EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades and USCIS efforts to clear EB-2 India backlog cases. Secondly, it is also part of DOS strategy to advance cut off dates aggressively early on during the year to ensure that visa numbers are used up during the fiscal year. According to Charlie, "USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement."
EB-2 Other Countries Demand is Lower probably as a result of fewer EB-3 upgrades.
EB-2 and EB-3 China Will Continue to Advance: Demand in EB-2 China has been decreasing. Demand decreased in November by about half, when compared to October. Demand for EB-3 China is also low. In an attempt to meet usage target, Charlie will continue to advance EB-3 China. As a result, more downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 are expected, which could "rebalance" the cut off dates of these categories. Charlie expects such rebalancing to happen over the next few months.
"Dates for Filing" Chart in the April Bulletin will be Revised by Charlie, primarily in the family-based categories. Charlie also predicts that EB-3 Other Countries filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low.
Q & A:
QUESTION: Do the numbers reported on the Waiting List for EB-3 Philippines reflect actual visa demand for this category? It has been suggested by some that as many as 80% of the 28,102 individuals listed in the report will not pursue their visa applications as a result of the visa backlog and lack of priority date movement over the years. If in fact actual demand to date has been less than expected, are you considering adjusting the priority date cut-off for this category?
ANSWER: Number use for EB-3 Philippines is at a fairly reasonable level for this point in the year. We have 5,000+ applicants which have already been reported to VO, and are only awaiting forward movement of the cut-off date. The cut-off date will continue to advance, but how quickly remains to be seen.
The "lag time" does not seem to have resulted in a lack of demand. The reason for the rapid movement of this date in FY 2015 was that we had worked through the eligible demand which was reported for overseas processing, and USCIS demand (approximately 950) was extremely low during the first four months of FY 2015. During the next three months, demand from USCIS exploded (approximately 3,000), perhaps due to a decreasing processing backlog."
The analysis for EB2-I is incorrect, because it is based on the incorrect premise that CO said EB2-I would move a total of 8 months over coming months. In fact, CO said that EB2-I might move up to 8 months per month (this was later revised downwards to 4-6 months per month).
For those that don't recall, it was also published in the December 2015 VB :
E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment Second:
India: Up to eight months.
The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through March based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.
Here's another article that seems a bit better:
Check-In with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim (2016-01-28)
On January 8, 2016, the State Department published its Annual Report of Immigrant Visa Applicants as of November 1, 2015, with the total number of immigrant visa applicants (i.e., principals, spouses, and children) who are subject to the annual numerical limits and whose cases are on file at the National Visa Center. This "Waiting List" does not include individuals whose immigrant visa petitions are pending at USCIS.
In November, Mr. Oppenheim predicted that EB-2 India might advance up to eight months in each of the coming months. In the February 2016 Visa Bulletin, EB-2 India surpassed this earlier prediction, advancing to August 1, 2008. This aggressive forward movement is the result of less demand in the category than that which was previously anticipated and reflects a strategy of advancing dates more aggressively earlier in the year in an effort to ensure that cases can be completed and all visa numbers used within the fiscal year.
The lower demand in recent months may be attributable to fewer EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades than expected, or it may be that the last advancement sufficiently captured the bulk of the demand. Low demand may also be the result of USCIS working through a backlog of EB-2 India cases, which would give the appearance that demand has tapered off. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement.
EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades.
The EB-2 China Final Action Date will continue to lag behind the EB-3 China Final Action Date in February, though the surge in EB-2 demand seems to be abating. While demand was high for EB-2 China in October, demand decreased in November by about half, and was relatively low in December. Demand for EB-3 China is also on the low side, such that the first quarter usage target for this category was not met. As a result, EB-3 China continues to advance, which may spur an influx of downgrades, which could ultimately rebalance the two categories as in the past two years. Mr. Oppenheim expects this rebalancing to occur at some point over the next few months. In the meantime, both EB-2 and EB-3 China are expected to continue to advance in March.
It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks @Spec.
What does this translate to for EB3-I. Any movement ? Any?
Hi Spec, I have seen what Ron had posted and it is exactly same the way you have it here. Ron receives this from AILA and it is only handed out to members, AILA does not publish it which means AILA is the only one who has access to CO and ask him questions, we are completely blocked out. AILA also asks their members NOT to post the exact words on their blogs and that's why we see the lawyers' write-ups as THEIR analysis of CO's words and not the actual words. Ron posts the EXACT words in the forum to a certain group of core members and asks them NOT to copy paste but apparently someone always does.
If we look at CO's words as posted in Ron's forum, he makes no mention of EB3ROW low demand or how it could affect EB3I movement. But the links you posted do say that "Charlie also predicts that EB-3 Other Countries filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." If Charlie did say that, apparently its not in Ron's text. But that should be good news for EB3I.
EB3Iwaiting,
Thanks for the additional info. Could you post the link to where Ron reported this. I can't find it, probably because the forum has become such a mess.
I think EB3-I will have a good year, although not possibly as good as the most optimistic predictions I have seen. I suspect that if USCIS could pick and choose which application filing dates they could use, they would allow EB3-I filing at the same date as NVC. I hope to see the EB3-I FAD advance into 2006 by the end of the FY.
Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS.
On the EB2 side, CO says "EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades". I'm not convinced that means anything. The demand was expected to subside as the PERM peak worked its way through in FY2015. It would be extremely worrying if it had not reduced. It only appears to have reduced to normal historical levels. At the current run rate, it appears there might be some, but not excessive, FA within EB2 from ROW. I can't comment on M or P. I think CO overstates porting in the WW category.
Looking forward to the link.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec
I'm having hard time decoding this can you help us understand...
"Mr. Oppenheim indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement."
I read it as the demand will increase and hence movement will slow down. (not that I agree or disagree with it ... !)
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Lol I think i can't understand what do you mean by Not that I agree or disagree with it !!! Lol may be I'm very dumb to understand simple things...
It's saying that the demand USCIS believe will occur in the coming months will be sufficiently high that the forward rate of COD movement for EB2-I will have to slow.
Demand from EB2-I itself, or from categories that supply SO would have the same effect.
Looking at the October USCIS Inventory we see that EB2-I demand per month in 2008 in the months through September averages about 135. For October 2008 through April 2009 that increases to at least 440. From May 2009 onward it is in excess of 1,000 per month.
Put another way, the Feb VB advancement (6 months) covered an additional 728 cases in the Inventory. The Jan VB advancement (8 months) covered an additional 554 cases. The Dec VB advancement (10 months) covered an additional 386 cases from the Inventory. All plus any unreported porting. Once the 7% limit is reached, further advancement relies on SO and later dates have a denser number of cases per month. The same number of available visas is going to move the dates relatively less as the dates advance.
In addition until October 2015 (not shown in Inventory), porters with PDs beyond September 2008 have not been current to complete interfiling since October 2014. Porters with PDs beyond April 2009 have not been current to complete interfiling since April 2012. The upcoming Inventory should hopefully give some clue about numbers up to a PD of July 2009, since USCIS accepted that Filing Date in October/November 2015. I hope that USCIS have processed the pending interfiling requests between then and now.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
It means I haven't given it a lot of thought. I only interpreted the sentence in question.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Shouldn't they move the filing dates prior to moving final action dates? Any chances of getting new filing date for EB2-I in March VB?
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