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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #1301

  2. #1302
    Notice EB3-ROW Filing Date. It is 1st Jan 2016. Why not make it "C"? That will probably anger the rogue elements at USCIS. The filing dates for EB3ROW has moved 4 months. Does this mean there is low EB3ROW demand? They are the only chance for EB3I movement.

  3. #1303
    DOS data released. However, section V for EB is not there.

    http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...fice-2015.html

  4. #1304
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    DOS data released. However, section V for EB is not there.

    http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...fice-2015.html
    That's quite sadist to specifically omit EB information.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  5. #1305
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Notice EB3-ROW Filing Date. It is 1st Jan 2016. Why not make it "C"? That will probably anger the rogue elements at USCIS. The filing dates for EB3ROW has moved 4 months. Does this mean there is low EB3ROW demand? They are the only chance for EB3I movement.
    What do you mean "rogue elements"? Are there bureaucrats within USCIS who are working counter to the rest?

  6. #1306
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Notice EB3-ROW Filing Date. It is 1st Jan 2016. Why not make it "C"? That will probably anger the rogue elements at USCIS. The filing dates for EB3ROW has moved 4 months. Does this mean there is low EB3ROW demand? They are the only chance for EB3I movement.
    CO is the one moves the dates. The reason he may not be making it current is he wants to wait a few months at least to ensure all of EB3-ROW is taken care of. Towards the last quarter he can make it current and let fall across come to EB3-I. As EB3-I applications are mostly pre-adjudicated, it is just a matter of getting medicals done( which can take a max of 1 month).

  7. #1307
    As per USCIS visa bulletin - http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

    For Family-Sponsored Filings:
    You may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart for January 2016.

    For Employment-Based Filings:
    You must use the Application Final Action Dates chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for January 2016 .

  8. #1308
    Sophomore
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    FB to EB spillover

    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    DOS data released. However, section V for EB is not there.

    http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...fice-2015.html
    Spec/Gurus - since family shows 208k, does it imply an 18k spillover to EB ?

    Edit: 208k looks like CP only

  9. #1309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Immigo View Post
    Spec/Gurus - since family shows 208k, does it imply an 18k spillover to EB ?

    Edit: 208k looks like CP only
    Immigo,

    As you have already surmised, the 208k represents CP cases only.

    To put that into context, in FY2014, FB had 198k CP cases out of a total 221k FB approvals.

    Unfortunately, it does appear that the preliminary EB allocation figure of just 300 extra in FY2016 will be fairly close to the mark.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  10. #1310
    Just wanted to follow up on my original query here. I raised a service request (http://www.uscis.gov/forms/tip-sheet...g-more-75-days) on the 88th day, and the online status showed case approved on 91st day. Thanks for everyone's advice, I appreciate it.

  11. #1311
    So, H1B fee has been hiked to $4000 if the employers has more than 50% of its employees on H1B.

    http://www.murthy.com/2015/12/18/omn...on-provisions/

  12. #1312
    Is there still a chance of the EAD rule for pending I485s being passed in 2016? Not sure what happened to that. All talk about that seemed to die out after 'visagate'.

  13. #1313
    Does it ($4000) apply to H1B extensions too or just the first time applicants subjected to cap?
    What would be the bill effective date? shouldn't it go to fed register and then the effective date?

  14. #1314
    Here is the final Bill Text: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-...4hr2029enr.pdf

    ‘‘SEC. 411. 9-11 RESPONSE AND BIOMETRIC ENTRY-EXIT FEE.

    ‘‘(a) TEMPORARY L-1 VISA FEE INCREASE.—Notwithstanding section
    281 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1351)
    or any other provision of law, during the period beginning on
    the date of the enactment of this section and ending on September
    30, 2025, the combined filing fee and fraud prevention and detection
    fee required to be submitted with an application for admission
    as a nonimmigrant under section 101(a)(15)(L) of the Immigration
    and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1101(a)(15)(L)), including an application
    for an extension of such status
    shall be increased by $4,500
    for applicants that employ 50 or more employees in the United
    States if more than 50 percent of the applicant’s employees are
    nonimmigrants admitted pursuant to subparagraph (H)(i)(b) or (L)
    of section 101(a)(15) of such Act.
    ‘‘(b) TEMPORARY H-1B VISA FEE INCREASE.—Notwithstanding
    section 281 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1351)
    or any other provision of law, during the period beginning on
    the date of the enactment of this section and ending on September
    30, 2025, the combined filing fee and fraud prevention and detection
    fee required to be submitted with an application for admission
    as a nonimmigrant under section 101(a)(15)(H)(i)(b) of the Immigration
    and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1101(a)(15)(H)(i)(b)), including
    an application for an extension of such status,
    shall be increased
    by $4,000 for applicants that employ 50 or more employees in
    the United States if more than 50 percent of the applicant’s
    employees are such nonimmigrants or nonimmigrants described
    in section 101(a)(15)(L) of such Act.
    ‘‘(c) 9-11 RESPONSE AND BIOMETRIC EXIT ACCOUNT.—
    ‘‘(1) ESTABLISHMENT.—There is established in the general
    fund of the Treasury a separate account, which shall be known
    as the ‘9–11 Response and Biometric Exit Account’.
    ‘‘(2) DEPOSITS.—
    ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—Subject to subparagraph (B), of the
    amounts collected pursuant to the fee increases authorized
    under subsections (a) and (b)—
    ‘‘(i) 50 percent shall be deposited in the general
    fund of the Treasury; and
    ‘‘(ii) 50 percent shall be deposited as offsetting
    receipts into the 9–11 Response and Biometric Exit
    Account, and shall remain available until expended.
    ‘‘(B) TERMINATION OF DEPOSITS IN ACCOUNT.—After a
    total of $1,000,000,000 is deposited into the 9–11 Response
    and Biometric Exit Account under subparagraph (A)(ii),
    all amounts collected pursuant to the fee increases authorized
    under subsections (a) and (b) shall be deposited in
    the general fund of the Treasury.
    ‘‘(3) USE OF FUNDS.—For fiscal year 2017, and each fiscal
    year thereafter, amounts in the 9–11 Response and Biometric
    Exit Account shall be available to the Secretary of Homeland
    H. R. 2029—766
    Security without further appropriation for implementing the
    biometric entry and exit data system described in section 7208
    of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of
    2004 (8 U.S.C. 1365b).’’.
    (h) ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS.—Section 1347 of the Full-Year Continuing
    Appropriations Act, 2011 (49 U.S.C. 40101 note) is
    amended—
    (1) by inserting ‘‘and (2)’’ after ‘‘(d)(1)’’; and
    (2) by adding at the end the following: ‘‘Costs for payments
    for compensation for claims in Group A, as described in section
    405(a)(3)(C)(ii) of such Act, shall be paid from amounts made
    available under section 406 of such Act. Costs for payments
    for compensation for claims in Group B, as described in section
    405(a)(3)(C)(iii) of such Act, shall be paid from amounts in
    the Victims Compensation Fund established under section 410
    of such Act.’’.

  15. #1315
    Thanks na_dev.

  16. #1316
    OMB has approved proposed rule RIN 1615-AC05. It will soon be published in the FR and opened for comments. That's when we will get to see the actual text of the rule. It will be interesting:

    http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eoDetails?rrid=125729

  17. #1317
    This is good news. Now it crossed the first huddle. It's in Rule making stage . Let's wait to see the texts of the rule.

  18. #1318
    Quote Originally Posted by na_dev View Post
    This is good news. Now it crossed the first huddle. It's in Rule making stage . Let's wait to see the texts of the rule.
    It looks like that we will still have to show "compelling reasons" to get EAD for limited period and that granting of EAD even on those compelling reasons would be solely at the discretion of DHS. Now we will have to wait to see what does "compelling reasons" mean and what is included in this.

    Also, for EAD extensions, the gap between PD and VB cut-off date should be less than 1 year.

    So lets assume that if I somehow qualify to get EAD showing "compelling reasons" and end up getting and EAD for 1 or 2 years, I wouldn't be able to get the extension at the end of those 1 or 2 years unless my PD and VB cut-off date is less than 1 year apart, which in short means that I have to still maintain my H1B status regardless of being on EAD or not.

    I don't know how many people would benefit ultimately at the end of this rule making. It seems like they are doing something just for the sake of doing it and in the end only couple thousands may qualify at the most.

  19. #1319
    Pandit
    Join Date
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    Sunny SoCal
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    H-1B and L-1 application fee increase will fuel EB1-C surge. Top Indian consulting companies will seek a quick way to bring their H-1/L-1 employees down to < 50%. The easiest(only) way to quickly achieve is to file as many as EB1-C and bring the L-1/H-1 numbers down. EB1C in the coming years may have a cut off for Indian applicants. Every action by Dos and/or USCIS on targeting Indian consulting companies will only end up as a nightmare for EB2-I/EB3-I applicants in the form of increased EB1-C usage. This won't be different either.

  20. #1320

    PERM while on OPT and effects on EB2-EB3 predictions?

    Recently my team made an offer to a fresh grad from Taiwan. The guy insisted that we start the GC process while he was on OPT (so that he no longer depends on H1B lottery). The company lawyers balked at the idea. But it looked like the guy felt it was doable and he rejected our offer.

    So the larger question is whether the above is possible? If so, why are more companies like FB, GOOG etc not doing it? If it is indeed doable, woudn't it shutdown one possibility of spillover for GCs (assuming H1B limit is currently a gating factor for ROW applicants)

  21. #1321
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    It looks like that we will still have to show "compelling reasons" to get EAD for limited period and that granting of EAD even on those compelling reasons would be solely at the discretion of DHS. Now we will have to wait to see what does "compelling reasons" mean and what is included in this.

    Also, for EAD extensions, the gap between PD and VB cut-off date should be less than 1 year.

    So lets assume that if I somehow qualify to get EAD showing "compelling reasons" and end up getting and EAD for 1 or 2 years, I wouldn't be able to get the extension at the end of those 1 or 2 years unless my PD and VB cut-off date is less than 1 year apart, which in short means that I have to still maintain my H1B status regardless of being on EAD or not.

    I don't know how many people would benefit ultimately at the end of this rule making. It seems like they are doing something just for the sake of doing it and in the end only couple thousands may qualify at the most.
    Where does it say this? Thx

  22. #1322
    Check this link http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01511-1615-011

    "EAD for a limited period if there are compelling circumstances that, in the discretionary determination of DHS, justify the consideration of such employment authorization"

    Not surprised if the limited period is for few seconds.

  23. #1323
    Quote Originally Posted by Raj0687 View Post
    Check this link http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01511-1615-011

    "EAD for a limited period if there are compelling circumstances that, in the discretionary determination of DHS, justify the consideration of such employment authorization"

    Not surprised if the limited period is for few seconds.
    Maybe the word 'limited' is just meant to indicate that it's till we get a GC? Of course that's the most optimistic reading...I guess we'll see. The same or similar job stuff is bullshit too...

  24. #1324

    I-140 EAD rule making

    Merry Christmas to all.

    I see this as a positive news even though there are some conditions attached to it.

    More details are available in this document:
    http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/Dow...ectID=60384600

    "USCIS is projecting that approximately 155,067 new respondents will submit this type of request as a result of this rulemaking."

    That's a huge number which includes the spouse and children for a primary I-140 approved applicant and that turns out to be an approximation of 75k to 100k primary I-140 approved applicants who will get benefited from this rule making.

    As of today we don't know what are those compelling reasons but USCIS already estimated that there are around 155k people in those compelling circumstances currently who will get eligibility to file for I-140 EAD. We need to wait for another 4 to 6 months to see this rule gets approved and active.
    All in all I see this as a great start for a new year 2016 with lots of hopes at least for those 155K beneficiaries. The remaining people can only hope their turn comes in subsequent years based on their PD and VB movement.

  25. #1325
    Gurus - need your opinion here. My PD is July 29, 2011. Is there any chance I would be able to apply for I-485 in 2016?

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