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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #1276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    However, I also believe that we are not at loss because of the USCIS delays. Most of the SO we might get this year will be from FA and some might be from FD. Nobody knows those numbers until late in the FY.

    I have always been of the opinion that CO does try to help EB2I as much as possible. He would continue moving the dates by 4-6 months and consume the annual quota and that sounds good. SO will remain unknown until Q4 of FY and hence the delay added by USCIS does not affect us as we have time until Q4 to assess the demand increase due to porting.
    Jagan,

    One of the biggest potential advantages of the new system was that upcoming demand might be more visible. If that applied to Categories/Countries that provided FA/FD, then the possibility existed to apply SO much earlier and even on a quarterly basis.

    As you have noted, without that earlier visibility, the timing of SO distribution is likely to remain the same as it always has been.
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  2. #1277
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Jagan,

    One of the biggest potential advantages of the new system was that upcoming demand might be more visible. If that applied to Categories/Countries that provided FA/FD, then the possibility existed to apply SO much earlier and even on a quarterly basis.
    Spec,

    I do not see how that helps. The countries/categories that can provide FA/FD to EB2I are already current in the final action dates. So the dual system will not help there. The only place where dual system can help provide more insight into the inventory is for the retrogressed categories and those are not the ones that will be providing SO anyways.

    I do agree with you on the part that the system is intended to provide more visibility into all the inventories and USCIS is not putting in its effort to do its part in a timely manner. However, that does not affect us as we anyways need to wait till Q4 to get the insight into the SO numbers.

  3. #1278
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Here's another article on the latest check in with CO that occurred on November 12,2015.
    This sounds interesting from that article -

    Expect to See the “Visa Waiting List” in the January Visa Bulletin: Charlie and his team are currently compiling the “Visa Waiting List” which will provide information on the waiting list at the National Visa Center (NVC) as of November 1, 2015. An announcement should occur in next month’s Visa Bulletin, if not sooner.
    There seem to be a lot of interesting things happening in the next few months..

  4. #1279
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    Spec,

    I do not see how that helps. The countries/categories that can provide FA/FD to EB2I are already current in the final action dates. So the dual system will not help there. The only place where dual system can help provide more insight into the inventory is for the retrogressed categories and those are not the ones that will be providing SO anyways.

    I do agree with you on the part that the system is intended to provide more visibility into all the inventories and USCIS is not putting in its effort to do its part in a timely manner. However, that does not affect us as we anyways need to wait till Q4 to get the insight into the SO numbers.
    I think you are missing the point.

    It would help if USCIS made some changes so that they could capture the numbers as the applications are received and these were passed to DOS.

    That would give DOS visibility of upcoming demand for applicants that were Current. Although it would not be quite as accurate if collected at that point, the denial rates for I-140 and I-485 are known and could be applied to arrive at a rough figure.

    At the moment, the earliest an I-485 application is recorded with sufficient detail is after the I-140 has been approved (for the Inventory) and when a visa is requested from DOS. For Current applicants, that is the time of approval, which is of no use whatsoever to DOS to assess future demand. Capturing the statistics as the application is received could give up to 4-6 months of forward visibility.

    I think its arguably more important to understand the numbers of cases that can be approved, rather than counting numbers that may not be able to be approved because the former was not understood properly.

    Unless USCIS sort this out, there is no prospect EVER of anything else other than the mad scramble towards the end of the FY. I think even USCIS (if they could ever be bothered to think about it) would prefer a more predictable and even workload.

    Of course, it's far too much to ask of USCIS and I'm not holding my breath.
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  5. #1280
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    This sounds interesting from that article -



    There seem to be a lot of interesting things happening in the next few months..
    It's just an update to this document which currently shows the figures as at November 1, 2014.
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  6. #1281
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    It's just an update to this document which currently shows the figures as at November 1, 2014.
    I thought it would be in the same format as the USCIS Pending Inventory. Without a yearwise breakup, this report serves limited purpose.

  7. #1282
    I140 rule submitted by USCIS to OMB
    http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AC05

    Q, Spec , Kanmani .... Your insights please.. Thank you in advance

  8. #1283
    Where are the specifics of the proposed rules? Sorry I am being dense in the morning!
    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    I140 rule submitted by USCIS to OMB
    http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AC05

    Q, Spec , Kanmani .... Your insights please.. Thank you in advance
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

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  9. #1284
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    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    I140 rule submitted by USCIS to OMB
    http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AC05

    Q, Spec , Kanmani .... Your insights please.. Thank you in advance
    I don't think it adds anything that wasn't already known. It's a very generic summary.

    The devil will be in the detail of the actual rule published for comment.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  10. #1285
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Where are the specifics of the proposed rules? Sorry I am being dense in the morning!
    As of now i couldnot find more specifics.. This was submitted by USCIS yesterday.. I have no more information yet.. Might be guessing full rule will be published by OMB once he finalizes it... But thought you guys might know the more on the sections mentioned in the current info

  11. #1286
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I don't think it adds anything that wasn't already known. It's a very generic summary.

    The devil will be in the detail of the actual rule published for comment.
    Thank you Spec hopefully they do it in way to give EAD, AP .. I know i m asking for more

  12. #1287
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    To fellow forum members
    The link that mesan provided above was unavaialble for a while this afternoon but is up again.I feel that the content now has changed compared to the link yesterday.I distinctly remember that there was language towards the end of the rule that suggested that the USCIS might merge this rule with another rule which when searched seemed to include phrases like work authrization etc. The current rule (RIN: 1615-AC05 ) although largely similar to yesterday now now says that
    1615-AB97 (another AC21 regulation if you search the database) will be the regulation merged with it. Maybe I am mistaken and there is probably no change.

    Also certain sections mentioned in the current rule especially section 274A(h)(3)(B) of the INA and 8 U.S.C. 1324a(h)(3)(B) relate to unlawful employment of aliens and I am not sure how they fit in the current context

    Time will tell

  13. #1288
    The good thing is that this rule has been deemed "Economically Significant". So, OMB has to complete their review within 30 days. Note that the NPRM date is now changed to 12/00/2015. Considering 30 days for review, USCIS expects to publish this proposed rule in the FR for comments late December. As Spec mentioned, the devil is in the details when we get to read the full text of the rule. We have to wait till then.

  14. #1289
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    The good thing is that this rule has been deemed "Economically Significant". So, OMB has to complete their review within 30 days. Note that the NPRM date is now changed to 12/00/2015. Considering 30 days for review, USCIS expects to publish this proposed rule in the FR for comments late December. As Spec mentioned, the devil is in the details when we get to read the full text of the rule. We have to wait till then.
    e
    Where does it says that "Economically Significant" rules has to be reviewed in 30 days? I couldn't find that anywhere.

  15. #1290
    Quote Originally Posted by delguy View Post
    e
    Where does it says that "Economically Significant" rules has to be reviewed in 30 days? I couldn't find that anywhere.
    Go to the OMB dashboard and select DHS. You will see RIN1615-AC05 in "Pending Review" status. It also says "Yes" to Economically Significant.

    http://www.reginfo.gov/public/jsp/EO/eoDashboard.jsp

  16. #1291
    I have been working with a journalism student working on a story on backlogged EB immigrants. I mentioned my estimated wait time for the green card to him and he asked about the source of the estimate. I pointed him to this forum and the experts here. He was wondering if any of the experts here would be willing to talk to him. will be happy to provide his contact details and introductions.

  17. #1292
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Go to the OMB dashboard and select DHS. You will see RIN1615-AC05 in "Pending Review" status. It also says "Yes" to Economically Significant.

    http://www.reginfo.gov/public/jsp/EO/eoDashboard.jsp
    That I saw, but where does it say "30 days" period for "Economically Significant" rules?

  18. #1293
    sorry if this post does not belong here, please move as appropriate.

    Has anyone applied for EAD renewal recently and seeing any delays? My wife (dependent) and I (primary) sent the paperwork in that was received on Sep 11, 2015. It has been 86 days, online status still says "Case Received". Tried to make an infopass appointment (We are in NJ) for EAD inquiry and it says that at this time there is no information available for appointments. Is infopass still the process to follow or there is some other process now? thanks.

  19. #1294
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    Quote Originally Posted by AC_1980 View Post
    sorry if this post does not belong here, please move as appropriate.

    Has anyone applied for EAD renewal recently and seeing any delays? My wife (dependent) and I (primary) sent the paperwork in that was received on Sep 11, 2015. It has been 86 days, online status still says "Case Received". Tried to make an infopass appointment (We are in NJ) for EAD inquiry and it says that at this time there is no information available for appointments. Is infopass still the process to follow or there is some other process now? thanks.
    Contact local Senator / Congressman's office.

  20. #1295
    thanks for the tip, I will do that. One question, is there a specific something I have to do/say when there (try to meet the senator himself/herself, mention about inquiry form #XXYY, process to contact USCIS etc), or should just walk in with a sad face, talk to them, explain the situation, ask if there's anything they can do to help, and they will know the rest?

  21. #1296
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    Quote Originally Posted by AC_1980 View Post
    thanks for the tip, I will do that. One question, is there a specific something I have to do/say when there (try to meet the senator himself/herself, mention about inquiry form #XXYY, process to contact USCIS etc), or should just walk in with a sad face, talk to them, explain the situation, ask if there's anything they can do to help, and they will know the rest?
    Typically you go to their website and download and fill out the form (explaining what kind of help you need /which dept, provide receipt numbers etc) and fax it to them. The office staff is well aware of issues like EAD delays and know the next steps to help you out. IMO -No need to present yourself with a sad face. Just let them know the facts and urgency of the matter (e.g. financial loss if you did not get EAD on time).

  22. #1297
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    Large Increase In I-360 SIJ Applications (Part Of EB4)

    USCIS finally updated the figures (having failed to do so when all others were updated).

    Period Petitions by Case Status
    Special Immigrant Juvenile
    -------Received - Approved - Denied - Pending

    Fiscal Year - Total

    2010 ---- 1,646 -----1,590 ----- 97 ------ 35
    2011 ---- 2,226 -----1,869 ----- 84 ------ 47
    2012 ---- 2,968 -----2,726 ---- 119 ----- 220
    2013 ---- 3,994 -----3,431 ---- 190 ----- 702
    2014 ---- 5,776 -----4,606 ---- 247 --- 1,826
    2015 --- 11,500 -----8,739 ---- 412 --- 4,357


    I've checked once again that SIJ are actually included in EB4.

    From the INA (203(b)(4)) which describes EB4:

    (4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , 2/ and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .
    SIJ are shown as special immigrants under INA 101(a)(27)(J) and are not excluded above.
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  23. #1298
    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    I have been working with a journalism student working on a story on backlogged EB immigrants. I mentioned my estimated wait time for the green card to him and he asked about the source of the estimate. I pointed him to this forum and the experts here. He was wondering if any of the experts here would be willing to talk to him. will be happy to provide his contact details and introductions.
    See if this helps - http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartan...ed-immigrants/

    Too, refer to this document that was reference in the article - http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2....Sept-2015.pdf

  24. #1299
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    Quote Originally Posted by AC_1980 View Post
    sorry if this post does not belong here, please move as appropriate.

    Has anyone applied for EAD renewal recently and seeing any delays? My wife (dependent) and I (primary) sent the paperwork in that was received on Sep 11, 2015. It has been 86 days, online status still says "Case Received". Tried to make an infopass appointment (We are in NJ) for EAD inquiry and it says that at this time there is no information available for appointments. Is infopass still the process to follow or there is some other process now? thanks.
    I applied for EAD renewal early this year and it took me longer than 2013. I think it took nearly 100 days. If it goes over 90 days, it can be escalated. Call USCIS on the 91st day.

  25. #1300
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    Quote Originally Posted by nbk1976 View Post
    I applied for EAD renewal early this year and it took me longer than 2013. I think it took nearly 100 days. If it goes over 90 days, it can be escalated. Call USCIS on the 91st day.
    Very unpredictable. I applied for H4EAD and took more than 100 days, was about to raise a SR when I got the card. The letter informing / confirming that EAD card will be sent came two weeks later. Where as I saw some who applied later than me got cards earlier. Especially if things are going Vermont, expect 90 days response time I guess.

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