EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB3Iwaiting]

Can someone explain to me why the EB3ROW dates are provided the way they are?

[immi2910]

Could someone explain why the wait times are increasing for EB2I? Is it because only a small proportion of Indians are applying in EB3? If so then we may have a situation where EB3I moves ahead of EB2I in next couple of years. I consider this the optimistic scenario.

I have another hypothesis, which points to a bleaker outlook unless there are reforms.

Taking a macro view, there are 65K H1B visas allocated every year and there are 120K GC for EB1/2/3.

Now there are few people in EB1 (NIW i.e. EB1A/B) and few multinational managers (EB1C) on L1 and not on H1B. So there are additional visa categories that may need to be considered. However, there is also a spillover from EB4/5, which will reduce the effects of EB1 A/B and L1 visas.

After factoring all of this in let's reduce the number of GC available for H1B holders to 100K. Assuming that 1 H1B holder takes 2 GCs, you would expect inventory to increase by 30K every year.

As the bulk of the EB applications are from India, this would explain why the wait times are increasing for EB2I. It also indicates, that any recapture, I140 EAD etc. is only a stop gap measure. I think, to actually solve this problem, you would need legislation/executive order that will stop counting dependents for GC numbers or alternatively increase the GC numbers.

[flexan]

Gurus, Going by the predictions posted in the DoS website, it says EB2-I can expect a forward moment of ~ 8 months for each bulletin. So ideally speaking, 3 months from now, we can expect the final action dates to potentially reach 1 JUN 09. Can we can expect forward moment for dates filing I-485 later in this FY?

[zenmaster]

Gurus, Going by the predictions posted in the DoS website, it says EB2-I can expect a forward moment of ~ 8 months for each bulletin. So ideally speaking, 3 months from now, we can expect the final action dates to potentially reach 1 JUN 09. Can we can expect forward moment for dates filing I-485 later in this FY?

Ideally speaking, yes. But there isn't anything ideal going on with EB2I for quite some time now. So, pragmatic answer would be NO. We should however see 1JUL09 by end of FY16. How it plays out is just anyone's guess IMHO.

[tenyearsgone]

Ideally speaking, yes. But there isn't anything ideal going on with EB2I for quite some time now. So, pragmatic answer would be NO. We should however see 1JUL09 by end of FY16. How it plays out is just anyone's guess IMHO.

I actually read the 8 months as moving forward from 01-Jun-07 to 01-Feb-08 in total for the next few months. Pessimistic, I know....

[suninphx]

On a completely different note, it's very disappointing to see that USCIS have said that, for AOS applicants, the Final Action Dates will govern the ability to file an I-485 in December. That's an effective retrogression of 2 years from the 01JUL09 that is in effect for November. http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

It can't get complicated than this ! sigh

[gten20]

I can't get complicated than this ! sigh

We gotta stop saying this. Whenever we say it, USCIS is like .. "Challenge Accepted!"

USCIS sucks! This whole experience sucks!

[gcq]

AILA's latest check-in with CO revealed that he expects EB2I to move 10 months to June 1, 2007 in December. This is largely because of the correction from the roll back before. He also expects EB2I to move around 8 months per VB over the course of the next few months but it could slow down based on porting from EB3I to EB2I. As usual, nothing was said about EB3I. I guess it means business as usual, movement of a few weeks per bulletin.

But here is the silver lining I see. In the Dec VB, CO said this about EB3ROW:

"Employment Third:.

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement during FY-2015 was expected
to generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. If
such demand fails to materialize in the near future it will be
necessary to begin advancing this cut-off date."

Even though he did say India will advance 3 weeks, everything depends on the EB3ROW demand and when CO chooses to apply Spillover. His above statement seems to indicate that there is low EB3ROW demand. Thoughts?

Yes I agree. CO doesn't traditionally say much positive about EB3I even when there are reasons to say. His world revolves around EB3-ROW !

[EB3Iwaiting]

Posting again since it got pushed behind with some posts:

AILA's latest check-in with CO revealed that he expects EB2I to move 10 months to June 1, 2007 in December. This is largely because of the correction from the roll back before. He also expects EB2I to move around 8 months per VB over the course of the next few months but it could slow down based on porting from EB3I to EB2I. As usual, nothing was said about EB3I. I guess it means business as usual, movement of a few weeks per bulletin.

But here is the silver lining I see. In the Dec VB, CO said this about EB3ROW:

"Employment Third:.

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement during FY-2015 was expected
to generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. If
such demand fails to materialize in the near future it will be
necessary to begin advancing this cut-off date."

Even though he did say India will advance 3 weeks, everything depends on the EB3ROW demand and when CO chooses to apply Spillover. His above statement seems to indicate that there is low EB3ROW demand. Thoughts?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

This is even more revealing - from Murthy.com

Impact of Visa Bulletin Changes:

As has been widely discussed, the visa bulletin system changed radically as of October 2015. The DOS reports that it is still too early to know whether the addition of the DF chart will provide the desired insight into visa number demand. The agency notes that the initial data does not reflect that the DF dates utilized by the USCIS are revealing sufficient demand to be meaningful. However, it is too early accurately assess this due to lag times between the submission of I-485 applications and the data being reported by the USCIS to the DOS.

Until the USCIS completes its review of an I-485 application - a process that generally takes at least six months - the agency does not request a visa number from the DOS. So, while the new system has allowed for some additional adjustment-of-status (form I-485) filings over the past two months, the DOS will not receive the related visa number requests before May 2016, at the earliest.

[Spectator]

This is even more revealing - from Murthy.com

Impact of Visa Bulletin Changes:

As has been widely discussed, the visa bulletin system changed radically as of October 2015. The DOS reports that it is still too early to know whether the addition of the DF chart will provide the desired insight into visa number demand. The agency notes that the initial data does not reflect that the DF dates utilized by the USCIS are revealing sufficient demand to be meaningful. However, it is too early accurately assess this due to lag times between the submission of I-485 applications and the data being reported by the USCIS to the DOS.

Until the USCIS completes its review of an I-485 application - a process that generally takes at least six months - the agency does not request a visa number from the DOS. So, while the new system has allowed for some additional adjustment-of-status (form I-485) filings over the past two months, the DOS will not receive the related visa number requests before May 2016, at the earliest.

I can't say I am particularly surprised by the statement, although I find it disappointing.

It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates. As written, there is still no advance information about demand. That's particularly important to assess demand from those Categories/Countries that might provide SO to India in EB2 and EB3.

It does beg the question as to how USCIS could make a decision not to use Filing Dates for EB AOS cases in December if they don't know how many cases have been received by Category/Country.




The quoted Murthy article also adds something to the 8 months per month movement for EB2-I over the next 3 months statement from the December VB.

India: Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)

The FA cutoff date for EB2 India advances by seven months in the December 2015 Visa Bulletin. This advancement is primarily the result of the substantial rollback of this cutoff date at the end of the prior fiscal year.

Up to eight months of advancement in this category, per month, are projected over the next several months in the DOS's visa bulletin predictions.

Note, however, that the eight-month projection is the maximum amount of anticipated forward movement. At this time, the DOS believes that the actual progress per month may be closer to four-to-six months.

One reason the DOS believes that the advancement will need to be slowed to something less than eight months per month is that advancement generates demand for visa numbers.

Specifically, as EB2 advances, this generates demand from what are known as EB3-to-EB2 "upgrades."

The eight-month advancement in EB2 will only be possible in the absence of anticipated volumes of EB3 "upgrade" requests.

Here's another article on the latest check in with CO that occurred on November 12,2015.

[Spectator]

The Q4 FY2015 USCIS Reports are available at http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-s...ion-forms-data

[EB3Iwaiting]

It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates.

You hit the nail on the head with this one Spec. This pretty much proves that USCIS is undoing any reforms that were planned to for the VB, aka modernization and literally have no intention or will to help the legal skilled immigrants stuck in backlog. They are completely undoing the advantages of Filing Dates and my sense is they simply want to do away with it. The EB2I date for the last VB shows just that.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The Q4 FY2015 USCIS Reports are available at http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-s...ion-forms-data

I keep thinking these Reports are accurate, but every time I do a smell test, it stinks!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I can't say I am particularly surprised by the statement, although I find it disappointing. It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

I totally agree with you.

USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

USCIS spent a Billion dollars trying to automate a single Form, God knows how many Billions they will need to implement a Program that can leverage the PERM and I-140 Data to be able to predict accurately the demand trends

It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates. As written, there is still no advance information about demand. That's particularly important to assess demand from those Categories/Countries that might provide SO to India in EB2 and EB3. It does beg the question as to how USCIS could make a decision not to use Filing Dates for EB AOS cases in December if they don't know how many cases have been received by Category/Country.

Very true.

The quoted Murthy article also adds something to the 8 months per month movement for EB2-I over the next 3 months statement from the December VB.

This is like a drop of water in the ocean and will not help make much of a dent in the backlog.

[Spectator]

I keep thinking these Reports are accurate, but every time I do a smell test, it stinks!

HarepathekaIntezar,

What in particular are you finding stinky?

[EB3Iwaiting]

When USCIS wasted a billion dollars in the automation program but are still far from it after 15 years, many believe that the USCIS pending I-485 inventory is also cooked up. And since they refuse to disclose the I-140 data, it is difficult to prove. Greg and Cyrus along with Bob submitted the FOIA request to obtain I-140 data which USCIS said in court they need another 10 days to produce after the original 21 days were over. Few others had submitted FOIA requests which were denied stating that the request was "too cumbersome". It is difficult to take anything that USCIS says or produces at face value.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

HarepathekaIntezar,

What in particular are you finding stinky?

I added up the Quarterly Approval totals and the total is just 117,416/-. Am I missing something?

[qesehmk]

I added up the Quarterly Approval totals and the total is just 117,416/-. Am I missing something?

You are missing the CP numbers.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

You are missing the CP numbers.

Do we get the CP numbers somewhere?

[Jagan01]

You are missing the CP numbers.

The percentage of CP cases went up. Any idea about the catalyst there ?

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------117416-----------------144796----------18.90 %
FY14-----------126940-----------------150000----------15.38 %

[Jagan01]

I can't say I am particularly surprised by the statement, although I find it disappointing.

It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates. As written, there is still no advance information about demand. That's particularly important to assess demand from those Categories/Countries that might provide SO to India in EB2 and EB3.

It does beg the question as to how USCIS could make a decision not to use Filing Dates for EB AOS cases in December if they don't know how many cases have been received by Category/Country.




The quoted Murthy article also adds something to the 8 months per month movement for EB2-I over the next 3 months statement from the December VB.



Here's another article on the latest check in with CO that occurred on November 12,2015.

I do agree on your viewpoint about USCIS being sluggish and downright anti-immigrant.

However, I also believe that we are not at loss because of the USCIS delays. Most of the SO we might get this year will be from FA and some might be from FD. Nobody knows those numbers until late in the FY.

I have always been of the opinion that CO does try to help EB2I as much as possible. He would continue moving the dates by 4-6 months and consume the annual quota and that sounds good. SO will remain unknown until Q4 of FY and hence the delay added by USCIS does not affect us as we have time until Q4 to assess the demand increase due to porting.

It is also important to note what is happening to EB2C. They are creating a situation where EB2C candidates might want to downgrade to EB3C. Though not very significant, that phenomenon turns out negative for EB3I and turns out in favor of EB2I as it is indirectly affecting the SO that EB2I and EB3I will end up getting.

[Spectator]

The percentage of CP cases went up. Any idea about the catalyst there ?

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------117416-----------------144796----------18.90 %
FY14-----------126940-----------------150000----------15.38 %

Using USCIS numbers, it would have been:

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------117416-----------------144796----------18.90 %
FY14-----------126939-----------------151241----------16.07 %

Actual DOS numbers were slightly different:

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY14-----------129,992-----------------151,357----------14.12 %

So there was a 3,053 difference in the number of AOS cases reported by USCIS and DOS. If you applied the same difference (just for fun), then the FY15 figures would become:

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------120,469-----------------144,796----------16.80 %

I'm not sure a 2-3% difference, particularly based on USCIS figures is significant enough to get worried about. If it's a real effect, my bet would be on higher EB3-P CP cases.

[qesehmk]

I agree with Spec - my bet is EB3P as well as EB3I.

[Spectator]

I did notice that USCIS have reported significant increases in I-360 figures, which eventually become EB4 approvals.

Receipts ---- FY2014 -- FY2015 -- % Increase
I-360 ------- 20,270 -- 26,489 ------- 31%

Approvals --- FY2014 -- FY2015 -- % Increase
I-360 ------- 16,850 -- 26,357 ------- 56%

USCIS reported very high approvals in Q1. The denial % in FY2015 was 12.1%, compared to the 25.4% seen in FY2014.

The I-360 backlog at the end of FY2015 was 12.8k.

That might give some credence to the warning CO issued some time ago about EB4 becoming retrogressed as early as FY2016.


The EB5 backlog just continues to grow. There were 17.4k I-526 cases pending at the end of FY2015, compared to the 9.7k completed and 8.7k approved. USCIS received 14.3k I-526 receipts in FY2015.