EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[gs1968]

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

Is Spec the " Number cruncher" in the article? If not he should offer his services

[gs1968]

On a more substantive note,October 2015 (specifically October 3) marked 50 years since the signing of the Hart-Cellar ACT (Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965) by President Lyndon Johnson which changed forever the immigration patterns into the USA. Setting aside all our grievances about the current state of the system, we should pause to appreciate the courage and forethought of all the Congressmen of that era that produced this and other landmark legislation including the Civil Rights Act(1964) and the Voting Rights Act(1965)

[qesehmk]

gs - i have great regard for Lyndon Johnson for his work on Civil Rights.

Can you please elaborate how the 1965 act changed the immigration patter?

On a more substantive note,October 2015 (specifically October 3) marked 50 years since the signing of the Hart-Cellar ACT (Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965) by President Lyndon Johnson which changed forever the immigration patterns into the USA. Setting aside all our grievances about the current state of the system, we should pause to appreciate the courage and forethought of all the Congressmen of that era that produced this and other landmark legislation including the Civil Rights Act(1964) and the Voting Rights Act(1965)

[YTeleven]

YT,

I too had an estimate of 20k for EB3-I Inventory (and 18.5k for EB2-I), yet I am having difficulty reconciling that figure with wiping out the EB3-I Inventory in FY2016.

I understand that due to removals associated porting, 20k approvals aren't required to bring the Inventory to zero. Let's say it only requires 15k because 5k (as an example only) will be reductions due to porting, denials etc.

If China and Mexico use 3k each, Philippines uses 5-6k and India uses 15k then that totals 26-27k. That only leaves 13-14k available for ROW approvals.

The demand pipeline for ROW appears to be a fair bit higher than that.

What's your breakdown of where the numbers for EB3-I are coming from?

Spec,
Sorry for delayed response. I had to do my homework to answer your query or to justify my prediction.
That chart:https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89...SmM/edit?pli=1 I created sometime in Aug’14 and at that time my intention was to show that by FY16Q4 the EB3-I inventory levels will drop to near zero forcing CO to move the cutoff dates beyond the Jul’07 to build the inventory. The 20k figure may not be exact number but it could be less than that and as you said it could be a combination of spillover + reduction due to porting or demand destruction.
I’m still sticking to that timelines and still believe that the EB3-I backlogs will get cleared off in FY16.
I know there is EB3-Row demand in pipeline but we are NOT sure if that will meet the supply in FY16.
I always trust your demand numbers and I treat them as ideal numbers which needs to be factored to use for practical purposes as the processing delays dictates if these demand numbers should meet the supply or not in a particular FY. Nobody knows how to factor the processing delays into the calculations and hence I don’t have any tangible calculations to show how I come to that 20k figure.
Here is how I look at it, since we have both Oct’14 and Oct’15 Inventory charts now I’ll use them to support my prediction to be true. Based on above 2 inventory reports I know what happened in FY15 to EB3-Row & India:
1) Inventory figures are till Sep’2012 on 1stOct’2014
2) Opening inventory balance was 10K on 1stOct’2014
3) Inventory figures are till Aug’2015 on 1stOct’2015
4) Opening inventory balance was 11K on 1stOct’2015
5) That means in FY15, a total 3 years of demand was processed (2.5yaers of PERM data and 3 years of non-PERM data)
6) 6K of inventory before Sep’12 got cleared out of total 10K and 4K was still exists at the end of the year along with a new 7K inventory was added for the above 3 years making it a 11K opening balance on 1stOct2015.
7) Similarly for EB3-I, 7.5K of inventory cleared with 4.5K of SO from EB3-Row, another 2K of inventory cleared with porting to EB2-I.
8) So what I can infer from the above is : In spite of processing 3 years EB3-Row demand in one year(FY15), EB3-I got around 4.5K SO and there is NO significant increase in EB3-Row inventory.
9) Now projecting the same to FY16 where it needs to process only one year demand and all these demand is current demand and considering the more processing delays involved with new EB3 applications I can easily predict that the SO to EB3-I is far more than what we got in FY15 and I strongly believe that FY16 is the best year for EB3-I to wipeout of all the backlogs.
So based on above theory I don’t care what demand is in pipeline unless all of that come out of the pipeline before Sep’2016 to consume the supply.

[harapatha]

Thanks YT for your analysis.

When you say that the EB3I backlogs will be wipedout, what possible priority date could we hope to see on Oct 1 2016 for EB3 I (as things stand now).

Trying to make some sense on the term 'wipeout of backlog'. It certainly would not mean 'C' in visa bulletin for EB3I on Oct 1 2016, correct?

[YTeleven]

Thanks YT for your analysis.

When you say that the EB3I backlogs will be wipedout, what possible priority date could we hope to see on Oct 1 2016 for EB3 I (as things stand now).

Trying to make some sense on the term 'wipeout of backlog'. It certainly would not mean 'C' in visa bulletin for EB3I on Oct 1 2016, correct?

Yes. It will be beyond Aug2007. I'm expecting the dates will move from 2007 to 2010 in a progressive manner in FY 17 based on how much SO can get and how much demand left.

[Spectator]

YT,

Thanks so much for taking the time to reply. Looking at the posting time, you were up quite late, regardless of where you are located!!

Even though you haven’t said how many approvals EB3-ROW might receive, I believe I now understand why you think what you do in regard to EB3-I movement in FY2016.

I can’t agree with some of your assumptions, so I think you are underestimating EB3-ROW quite significantly. To discuss where we differ in detail would be far too long a post and would better be discussed over a beer, so I won’t attempt to do so.

I’ll point out one assumption that appears to be incorrect. In (3), you state that Inventory figures are till August 2015. That might be where the Cut Off Date has reached, but it doesn’t represent where applications in the Inventory have reached if they required a PERM certification first.

Even now, PERM certifications have only reached PDs in April 2015. Considering that an I-485 will only show in the Inventory if the underlying I-140 has been approved and considering I-140 processing times, then it appears few PERM cases, where the I-140 was processed as regular, would appear much beyond about an October 2014 PD.

When the October 2014 Inventory was released, the PERMs for September 2012 cases had been certified since Nov 2012 to Jan 2013 (very fast PERM certification at that time). That left plenty of time for an I-140 to be submitted and approved before October 2014. Most cases may have been in that Inventory. Back then, the EB3-ROW Inventory was still behaving like a retrogressed Country in many respects.

Since that time, EB3-ROW has become essentially Current for a great number of months. Certainly, the COD has been in excess of the latest PD of PERM being certified. Now, the EB3-ROW Inventory is behaving like that for a Country that is Current.

For the October 2015 Inventory, only a subset of EB3-ROW are likely to be shown. No cases where the I-140 remains unadjudicated, even if the case was filed concurrently, will be in the Inventory.

I therefore think a direct comparison between the Inventory sizes is no longer possible. As you pointed out, the latest month with a net reduction over FY2015 was September 2012.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this subject, at least until the FY2015 Visa Statistics are published.

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec, and other gurus,

When do you plan updating the header page with 2016 predictions? Do you have a sense of how the new acceptance dates might move?

[Spectator]

4WatItsWorth,

I have no plans to update the first page at present.

We don't even know how many visas might be available to EB from FB under use last FY at the moment.

In what's likely to be a low SO scenario, that makes a huge difference. Without that, even the current Acceptance Date of July 2009 seems quite optimistic.

I don't intend to even try to guess about Acceptance Date movement. It probably won't move in the near future, if it's (under USCIS new definition) set at where the Final Action Date might reach by the end of the FY.

[4WatItsWorth]

4WatItsWorth,

I have no plans to update the first page at present.

We don't even know how many visas might be available to EB from FB under use last FY at the moment.

In what's likely to be a low SO scenario, that makes a huge difference. Without that, even the current Acceptance Date of July 2009 seems quite optimistic.

I don't intend to even try to guess about Acceptance Date movement. It probably won't move in the near future, if it's (under USCIS new definition) set at where the Final Action Date might reach by the end of the FY.

Thanks, Spec. Deep down, I knew the this year does not look much better than the last but I was hoping that you would say something better. It is such a sad state of affairs!

[Spectator]

For those interested, here's the current number of Trackitt approvals for selected classes in October compared to previous years. The number is subject to change as people get round to updating their case.

EB1-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 15 ---- 15 ----- 32 ----- 32 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 50 ----- 50 ----- 76 ----- 76


EB1-ALL

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 19 ---- 19 ----- 37 ----- 37 ----- 48 ----- 48 ----- 41 ----- 41 ----- 54 ----- 54 ----- 85 ----- 85



EB2-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 47 ----- 47 ---- 174 ---- 174 ----- 43 ----- 43 ---- 362 ---- 362 ----- 97 ----- 97 ------ 6 ------ 6


EB2-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 71 ----- 71 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 68 ----- 68 ----- 38 ----- 38 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 50 ----- 50



EB3-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 10 ----- 10 ----- 59 ----- 59 ------ 7 ------ 7 ------ 4 ------ 4


EB3-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 14 ----- 14 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 19 ----- 19 ----- 47 ----- 47 ------ 9 ------ 9 ----- 14 ----- 14

[gten20]

http://www.dhs.gov/topic/save-date-f...ual-conference

2015 Fifth Annual Conference
Fifth Annual Conference
National Archives and Records Administration
Washington, D.C.
November 5, 2015
8:30 am – 4:30 pm

The Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman Fifth Annual Conference will be held on Thursday, November 5, 2015.

The conference will include keynote speakers and panel discussions with federal officials and stakeholders from the public and private sectors. Please review the agenda for additional information on conference topics, which will focus on trends in family, humanitarian, and employment-based immigration.

If you are unable to join us in person, portions of our conference will be live-streamed starting at 9:00 am.

Please send questions or comments to CISOmbudsman.PublicAffairs@hq.dhs.gov with “Annual Conference” in the subject line.

[gc_dec_2008]

Hello All, this may not be good question here, but I am EB2 my PD is Dec 2008. I have been told by USCIS for more than 1 year now that my case is under extended review? does anyone know what it is and how long it takes? It has been almost 4 years since i filed and there is no action since fingerprint in March 2012. I have gone to senator/congressman and received same boiler plate response for last one year. Any guidance will be greatly appreciated !!

[qesehmk]

I do not have specific insights but I strongly recommend using right of information and seek this information from USCIS. If I were you I would phrase my question as follows:

For following cases:
1. xxxxxxxx
2. xxxxxxxx
3. xxxxxxxx
......
n. xxxxxxxx

Please let me know.
1. If the case is ready to be approved and is only waiting for a visa.
2. If the answer to above question is "NO" - what specific processing steps are incomplete.

Hello All, this may not be good question here, but I am EB2 my PD is Dec 2008. I have been told by USCIS for more than 1 year now that my case is under extended review? does anyone know what it is and how long it takes? It has been almost 4 years since i filed and there is no action since fingerprint in March 2012. I have gone to senator/congressman and received same boiler plate response for last one year. Any guidance will be greatly appreciated !!

[Spectator]

You can find them here. It's CO's best guess at this stage.

It's potentially quite bad news.

Had the figure been 140,000 for EB, then I would have said CO didn't yet know about FB numbers.

However, the number is 140,300 - an increase of just 300. That suggests that virtually no FB visas were wasted in FY2015.

Last year, the first version predicted 144,000. That was later updated to 144,730 and the final official number was 144,796.


Employment
(estimated limit)


Preference --------- China* -- All Others -- Worldwide
El ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E2 ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E3/EW -------------- 2,509 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126**
E4/SR ---------------- 697 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961
E5 --------------------- 0 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961

Total -------------- 8,821* ------- 9,821 ---- 140,300

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be
reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the
E5 category.

**The EW category is currently entitled to up to 5,000 of this total.

Unused numbers can "fall-down" from El to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can "fall-up" from E4
and E5 to EI. That fact is taken into consideration when setting the monthly/annual targets for
number use, and based on historical/recent patterns of number use.


To put this into context, the lower FB visas represents a loss of SO to EB2-I of 2.8k and a loss of SO to EB3-I of 1.0k compared to FY2015.

[mfd1402]

pls could you add the 2016 section to your main page

[harapatha]

Thanks @Spectator

@YTEleven - Do these numbers change your forecast for EB3 I (and the related chart?) or still good?

[suninphx]

You can find them here. It's CO's best guess at this stage.

It's potentially quite bad news.

Had the figure been 140,000 for EB, then I would have said CO didn't yet know about FB numbers.

However, the number is 140,300 - an increase of just 300. That suggests that virtually no FB visas were wasted in FY2015.

Last year, the first version predicted 144,000. That was later updated to 144,730 and the final official number was 144,796.


Employment
(estimated limit)


Preference --------- China* -- All Others -- Worldwide
El ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E2 ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E3/EW -------------- 2,509 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126**
E4/SR ---------------- 697 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961
E5 --------------------- 0 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961

Total -------------- 8,821* ------- 9,821 ---- 140,300

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be
reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the
E5 category.

**The EW category is currently entitled to up to 5,000 of this total.

Unused numbers can "fall-down" from El to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can "fall-up" from E4
and E5 to EI. That fact is taken into consideration when setting the monthly/annual targets for
number use, and based on historical/recent patterns of number use.


To put this into context, the lower FB visas represents a loss of SO to EB2-I of 2.8k and a loss of SO to EB3-I of 1.2k compared to FY2015.

Wow ! What a great start for weekend !

[Spectator]

Wow ! What a great start for weekend !

suninphx,

Just don't shoot the messenger!!!

[Suva2001]

suninphx,

Just don't shoot the messenger!!!

Spec, do you still expect SO for EB3-I in FY16? If yes then any guesstimate about how much min?

Thanks

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Just don't shoot the messenger!!!

spectator,

That was a reaction to the numbers rather than to your post.

Thankfully, I have much better things to do in life than 'shooting the messengers'.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Thanks @Spectator

@YTEleven - Do these numbers change your forecast for EB3 I (and the related chart?) or still good?

I think his predictions were based on the SO from EB3ROW. So do not think a low SO from FB changes his forecasts. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[qesehmk]

You answer is right - but for a different reason.

An extra visa is an extra visa - no matter where it comes from. 100% of FB SO goes to backlogged candidates in EB.

However 71% of it goes to EB4/5/1/2 and then eventually it is consumed by EB2-I. (unless one of those other categories exceeds it allocation - which rarely happens). Thus EB3 will receive 28.2% of SO - which again is mostly utilized by EB3I.

So any FB SO will make a difference on EB3I predictions depending on how large SO is. Even if FB gave 10K - EB3 (and thus EB3I) will only receive 3K. That is probably at least 3 months if not 6 months of EB3I inventory.

I think his predictions were based on the SO from EB3ROW. So do not think a low SO from FB changes his forecasts. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[amulchandra]

You answer is right - but for a different reason.

An extra visa is an extra visa - no matter where it comes from. 100% of FB SO goes to backlogged candidates in EB.

However 71% of it goes to EB4/5/1/2 and then eventually it is consumed by EB2-I. (unless one of those other categories exceeds it allocation - which rarely happens). Thus EB3 will receive 28.2% of SO - which again is mostly utilized by EB3I.

So any FB SO will make a difference on EB3I predictions depending on how large SO is. Even if FB gave 10K - EB3 (and thus EB3I) will only receive 3K. That is probably at least 3 months if not 6 months of EB3I inventory.

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.

[EB3Iwaiting]

You answer is right - but for a different reason.

An extra visa is an extra visa - no matter where it comes from. 100% of FB SO goes to backlogged candidates in EB.

However 71% of it goes to EB4/5/1/2 and then eventually it is consumed by EB2-I. (unless one of those other categories exceeds it allocation - which rarely happens). Thus EB3 will receive 28.2% of SO - which again is mostly utilized by EB3I.

So any FB SO will make a difference on EB3I predictions depending on how large SO is. Even if FB gave 10K - EB3 (and thus EB3I) will only receive 3K. That is probably at least 3 months if not 6 months of EB3I inventory.

Certainly not denying that an extra visa is an extra visa, no matter where it comes from.