EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[GCwaiting]

Just trying to guess .... will there be spill-over(SO) from EB3 ROW to EB3 I in Dec 2015 Visa?

There was a talk of Quarterly SO & dates moving fast in first 3 quarters and moving back in last if warranted.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...on_report1.pdf
Page 29
Recommendation 2: Refine monthly allocation of visas: State will increase monthly visa allocation totals during the first three quarters of the fiscal year to the degree permitted by law in order to ensure that fewer numbers are left for the final quarter, thereby ensuring that visa numbers issued are as closely aligned with statutory mandates as possible

Other websites mentioned of this too.

[nth_i140]

Signed !! but not having any hopes

I am a silent watcher of this blog almost 3 years.. but we have to make the petition to be signed within the period i.e. Nov 14th. The OPT group has done it with positive approch and made the rule to the next stage ..
We hope something will happen approach and not keeping the momentum to sign the petition. If you look the petition needed per day is 3.3K but we are going very slow and loose the hope and go back to the routine life.

Please keep your hopes high and forward to your friends the petition link through phone text, whats app,Facebook and Twitter other groups to support the EB community. We knew this is going to be kind of loosing hopes every time but please come forward and spread to request the petition to be signed.

Please follow up and request them through your friends families and EAD holders OPT groups and green card holders. This helps to expedite the signatures count to the targets.

Please DON'T LOOSE THE HOPES and move forward to reach target with high momentum.. Rrquest again to all known groups. Recently the OPT group done the petitions to 100K signatures and the rule has been advanced. Please see the link below from Murthy forum..
http://www.murthy.com/2015/10/15/new...-fed-register/

A/ Spec, all Gurus, please add your comments and help the EB community to get atleast the I 140 EAD.

Thanks again everyone's time and achivie this target in great manner.

[Suva2001]

YTEleven

I heard petitions do not help at all. So should we spend our time on these?

Thanks

[Spectator]

Just a little rant about how slow DHS are being in releasing the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics for FY2014.

It's now over a year since FY2014 ended and the Yearbook has still not been published.

The FY2013 Yearbook was published around May/June 2014.

[dec2010]

I don't think there is any advantage to downgrade to EB3-I for EB2-I FY11 applicants.
From FY12 onwards the applications are dense and the applicants will eventually end up in downgrading to EB3 in future.
To understand the situation here is some predictions:
-----------------------------------
Year----------Expected GC timeframe
FY09----------+7years i.e FY16
FY10----------+7years i.e.FY17
FY11----------+8years i.e FY18-FY19
FY12----------+9years i.e FY20-FY21
FY13-FY15-----+10-12years. i.e FY2025
------------------------------------

YT - could you pls comment what is your level of optimism in these numbers?

FY 13/14 ( approved march/2015 ) PDs have lots of porters ( about 1800 from just CTS/I am sure there are more porters from other companies too) IMO , there is going to be higher than normal porting and will show up in 485 by mar-apr/2016.
PS - I don't work for CTS, just have few friends over there who are in same boat

[GCwaiting]

Guys.... Any updates for EB3 I ??? Any RFE / indicators....?? We are now in 3rd week of Oct.

When is the Oct 485 inventory expected ?

Please reply...

[Spectator]

The last two October USCIS pending Inventory have been published in the first week of November. The latest it has been published to date is around November 14.

[redsox2009]

Spectator can you update the approval list in the Trackitt Data section.

[Spectator]

Spectator can you update the approval list in the Trackitt Data section.

redsox,

The FY2015 figures are up to date (at least when I looked yesterday).

I haven't decided yet whether to continue them in FY2016. I don't want to start, only to stop updating them later.

Since I've kept them up to date so far, here's the latest for FY2016:

EB1-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 15 ---- 15 ----- 32 ----- 32 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 50 ----- 50 ----- 46 ----- 46

Total -------- 169 ------------ 413 ------------- 338 ------------- 546 ------------- 498 -------------- 46

Actual ----- 4,563 ---------- 9,506 ----------- 9,640 ---------- 12,978

EB1A --- 10 --- 21.7%
EB1B ---- 6 --- 13.0%
EB1C --- 30 --- 65.2%
Total -- 46 -- 100.0%

FY2015 Percentages
EB1A --- 80 --- 16.1%
EB1B --- 79 --- 15.9%
EB1C -- 339 --- 68.1%
Total - 498 -- 100.0%


EB1-ALL

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 19 ---- 19 ----- 37 ----- 37 ----- 48 ----- 48 ----- 41 ----- 41 ----- 54 ----- 54 ----- 53 ----- 53

Total -------- 239 ------------ 543 ------------- 424 ------------- 638 ------------- 630 -------------- 53

Actual ---- 25,229 --------- 39,387 ---------- 39,058 ---------- 40,608

EB1A --- 10 --- 18.9%
EB1B ---- 9 --- 17.0%
EB1C --- 34 --- 64.2%
Total -- 53 -- 100.0%

FY2015 Percentages
EB1A -- 113 --- 17.9%
EB1B -- 106 --- 16.8%
EB1C -- 411 --- 65.2%
Total - 630 -- 100.0%


EB2-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 47 ----- 47 ---- 174 ---- 174 ----- 43 ----- 43 ---- 362 ---- 362 ----- 97 ----- 97 ------ 4 ------ 4

Total ----- 1,182 ----------- 1,470 ----------- 1,338 ----------- 1,952 ------------- 593 --------------- 4

Actual --- 23,997 ---------- 19,726 ---------- 17,193 ---------- 23,527

PD ------ 2001 -- 2002 -- 2003 -- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 --- Total
October ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 4


EB2-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 71 ----- 71 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 68 ----- 68 ----- 38 ----- 38 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 30 ----- 30

Total ------- 570 ------------- 453 ------------- 732 ------------- 416 ------------- 717 -------------- 30

Actual --- 30,161 ---------- 21,778 ---------- 36,485 ---------- 19,261

PD ------ 2006 -- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- 2013 -- 2014 -- 2015 -- Total
October ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 7 ---- 20 ----- 3 ----- 30

EB2 ------- 25 -- 83.3%
EB2-NIW ---- 5 -- 16.7%
Total ----- 30 - 100.0%

FY2015 Percentages
EB2 ------ 601 -- 83.8%
EB2-NIW -- 116 -- 16.2%
Total ---- 717 - 100.0%


EB3-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 10 ----- 10 ----- 59 ----- 59 ------ 7 ------ 7 ------ 1 ------ 1

Total ------- 181 ------------- 142 ------------- 348 ------------- 152 ------------- 255 --------------- 1

Actual ---- 4,002 ----------- 2,804 ----------- 7,816 ----------- 3,526


EB3-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 14 ----- 14 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 19 ----- 19 ----- 47 ----- 47 ------ 9 ------ 9 ------ 7 ------ 7

Total ------- 172 ------------- 246 ------------- 258 ------------- 291 ------------- 216 --------------- 7

Actual --- 20,744 ---------- 23,691 ---------- 23,822 ---------- 26,074

[YTeleven]

PERM stats got released for FY15: http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2015_Q4.pdf
A huge increase in India certification: 45670 @ 58%
Bad news is, with this India certifications have reached 200k post-recession i.e. from FY09 and no hope for these 45k applicants, they have to wait at least 15 years to file their EAD in EB2.
Good news to FY09 and FY10 EB2 is they might see a little spillover due to the processing delays created by these 45k applications in the system in near future.
Help yourself and sign this Whitehouse petition: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov//pe...40-approval-12 to get EAD in next 6 months. Obama Administration is on it. Do your part by signing it and showing your support.

[Spectator]

The Full Year FY2015 Disclosure Data has also been released.

I've updated this post with the actual full year figures broken down by Country/Group.

I'll update the other PERM posts in FACTS & DATA as I have time.

Edit:- The forum is too unstable to upload the figures at present. I'll do so when the situation improves.

Edit:- Further updated above post with rough calculation of EB2:EB3 ratios based on minimum educational/experience requirements.

Edit:- All posts were finally updated several hours ago (link added).

[gcy2k07]

Looking at the PERM stats, I couldn't help holding back... one company (C**) has 7198 PERMs... on top of supposedly high EB1 cases which I guess do not show up in the PERM stats....
This is almost 2.5 times the yearly allocation for EB2I.... are there really so many high skilled jobs in one company that need to be filled by immigrant from one country? Also from the I485 july inventory, EB1 has over 700% increase YoY...
Not trying to sound anti-immigrant - but something is terribly wrong....

[Deeplayer]

Hello Everyone!

I would appreciate your advice on my situation.

EB2I with a PD in Nov 2010. Thinking of moving to a different area for job opportunities for the spouse. Just before the 1st Oct 2015 visa bulletin was released, I started searching for opportunities in and around the new location, where we wanted to move. However, based on the 1st bulletin, I stopped the search with the hope that after 6 months of filing for AOS, I could change jobs. Now, as you can see, I can not file for AOS, and not sure if I should resume job search again.

If my PD is likely to get current within the next 9-12 mo, we would like to hold off for now.

I know its not easy to predict if my PD will become current (either for filing or approval), but can you guys comment on the chances of my PD getting current within the next 9-12 months?

Your advice is greatly appreciated!

[asaxena2]

PERM stats got released for FY15: http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2015_Q4.pdf
A huge increase in India certification: 45670 @ 58%
Bad news is, with this India certifications have reached 200k post-recession i.e. from FY09 and no hope for these 45k applicants, they have to wait at least 15 years to file their EAD in EB2.
Good news to FY09 and FY10 EB2 is they might see a little spillover due to the processing delays created by these 45k applications in the system in near future.
Help yourself and sign this Whitehouse petition: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov//pe...40-approval-12 to get EAD in next 6 months. Obama Administration is on it. Do your part by signing it and showing your support.

YT Eleven

Do your EB 2 and eb 3 India 2016 predictions need to be modified ?

[YTeleven]

YT Eleven

Do your EB 2 and eb 3 India 2016 predictions need to be modified ?

No. These 46K Indian PERM certifications will NOT affect my FY16 predictions in any way.
In fact ALL these 46K(except the porting applications) will go into cold storage for next one decade and they will NOT be active unless Obama admin does something in the EO or next congress does any legislation.
All matters is ROW certifications, though there is a raise in ROW(NO-IC) certifications from 22,964(FY14) to 26,857(FY15) which directly affects the spillover to EB2&3-I in FY16,
I still see that these 46K of Indian PERM certifications will create processing delays for ROW applications to get complete and eventually helps EB2&3-I to get more spillover than expected.

I want to remind one more thing here, any predictions for EB2-I applications from FY13 onwards will be a waste of time as these have to go long way at least a decade to become active for EAD/GC.
I'm sorry to say this. They have to wakeup and realize this and do something, otherwise they are gone for good once the next recession comes here.
I'm hoping Obama Administration knows this and will do something in the EO.

[harapatha]

..
I want to remind one more thing here, any predictions for EB2-I applications from FY13 onwards will be a waste of time as these have to go long way at least a decade to become active for EAD/GC.
I'm sorry to say this. They have to wakeup and realize this and do something, otherwise they are gone for good once the next recession comes here.
..

Thanks YT for your insight as always.. This is a clarion call for all EB-I/backlogged ones to get united and push admin/congress for fixes. Otherwise, it aint going no where!

[oraclept]

This is my 1st post.

Visa modernization affect on EB2I/EB3I

Will this help EB2I/EB3I or hurt ?

I think ROW can always do concurrent filing. Only thing delaying is labor.

[LeoAugust]

Hi YTeleven,

I am new to this forum and would like to understand my PD is on Nov-5-2013. Do I come under FY14 or FY13?

Appreciate a response.

[sanjeevsinha05]

October 2015 Demand Data is out

[sanjeevsinha05]

October 2015 Demand Data is out

[jimmys]

The 485 Oct inventory is out. I don't know how far we can believe in these numbers.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y_10202015.pdf 485 October Inventory

[EB3Iwaiting]

The 485 Oct inventory is out. I don't know how far we can believe in these numbers.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y_10202015.pdf 485 October Inventory

EB3I pending inventory for 2004 went down from 8837 to 4429. 4400 visas cleared. How much spillover are we expecting in FY2016 and how much do we expect to get cleared?

[cursedguy]

Hello Everyone!

I would appreciate your advice on my situation.

EB2I with a PD in Nov 2010. Thinking of moving to a different area for job opportunities for the spouse. Just before the 1st Oct 2015 visa bulletin was released, I started searching for opportunities in and around the new location, where we wanted to move. However, based on the 1st bulletin, I stopped the search with the hope that after 6 months of filing for AOS, I could change jobs. Now, as you can see, I can not file for AOS, and not sure if I should resume job search again.

If my PD is likely to get current within the next 9-12 mo, we would like to hold off for now.

I know its not easy to predict if my PD will become current (either for filing or approval), but can you guys comment on the chances of my PD getting current within the next 9-12 months?

Your advice is greatly appreciated!

Under current conditions Almost zero. Sorry. Even if 'filing' date moves it is of no help to you if you are planning to change Jobs.

[sstest]

The 485 Oct inventory is out. I don't know how far we can believe in these numbers.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y_10202015.pdf 485 October Inventory

Thanks Jimmy.

Any guesses on why there are so many EB2ROW applications still open from 2013 and 2014 ? Specially second half of 2014 seems to have quite a few pending 485s..

[asaxena2]

No. These 46K Indian PERM certifications will NOT affect my FY16 predictions in any way.
In fact ALL these 46K(except the porting applications) will go into cold storage for next one decade and they will NOT be active unless Obama admin does something in the EO or next congress does any legislation.
All matters is ROW certifications, though there is a raise in ROW(NO-IC) certifications from 22,964(FY14) to 26,857(FY15) which directly affects the spillover to EB2&3-I in FY16,
I still see that these 46K of Indian PERM certifications will create processing delays for ROW applications to get complete and eventually helps EB2&3-I to get more spillover than expected.

I want to remind one more thing here, any predictions for EB2-I applications from FY13 onwards will be a waste of time as these have to go long way at least a decade to become active for EAD/GC.
I'm sorry to say this. They have to wakeup and realize this and do something, otherwise they are gone for good once the next recession comes here.
I'm hoping Obama Administration knows this and will do something in the EO.

The inventory is out, and the numbers are going as per your prediction