EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[qesehmk]

Sometimes I get worried Spec. People don't understand how fundamentally the demand has changed over the years and how EB2 is no longer in that good spot that it has enjoyed for almost a decade now.

gcvijay,

I also said:



PERM processing times did not increase, so that scenario has actually happened.

I'll be surprised if there is any further movement for EB2-I this FY.

Worldwide demand remains high and there still appears to be a lot of cases yet to be approved within the 01OCT08 EB2-I COD.

[gcq]

GCQ,

Which service center was your I-485 applied at?

Thanks

Nebraska service center

[amulchandra]

Nebraska service center

Looks like NSC is raining EB3I RFEs. The latest is for OCT 2004. What do you guys think about EB3 I movement.

Thanks
Amul

[Suva2001]

I came here more than 15 years ago. I hope we get good SO this year.

[geterdone]

gcvijay,

I also said:



PERM processing times did not increase, so that scenario has actually happened.

I'll be surprised if there is any further movement for EB2-I this FY.

Worldwide demand remains high and there still appears to be a lot of cases yet to be approved within the 01OCT08 EB2-I COD.

Spec,

Based on the inventory till April 01 there are ~6075 cases till Nov 2008. I would imagine most of them are from India. So just 6K total approvals for EB2 I this year?

[bluelabel]

Total Trackitt Approvals for all EB in FY2015-

1st Quarter - 481 - Resulted in total 21368 approvals as per USCIS performance data so the conversion rate is 44.42412 ( 1 Trackitt approval is around 45 real approvals)

Non Indian approval % is 42.

2nd Quarter - 488 - Resulted in total 26232 approvals as per USCIS performance data so the conversion rate is 54 ( 1 Trackitt approval is 54 real approvals)

Non Indian approval % is 56

3rd Quarter - 945- Non Indian approval % is 49 so if the average conversion ratio is 50, it would result in Approx. 47250 approvals in 3rd quarter alone.

4th Quarter - if we take out 15% CP approvals we'll left with around 35425 GC for 4th quarter.

I am not sure how long these numbers can take EB3 India forward but looks like EB2I may not move further in FY 15.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Based on the inventory till April 01 there are ~6075 cases till Nov 2008. I would imagine most of them are from India. So just 6K total approvals for EB2 I this year?

geterdone,

To that number, you have to add approvals made in the period October-March. In addition, you can't assume that all porting cases that will be approved are actually shown in the EB2 Inventory.

For those reasons, the number of approvals needed to completely clear EB2-I up to the end of September would therefore be much more than the 5-5.k that might represent EB2-I cases.

[jimmys]

Hi YT,
Any change in your earlier predictions?

[aquatican]

Spec,
You made a pessimistic calculation in the Page 1 Post also.
That calculation was spot on. I remember reading that a year ago and I thought - No way it will be this bad.
Gotta hand it to you. SPOT ON.

[jdoe99]

Spec and other experts,
I do not understand the 140 filings data published in the 2015 CISOMB annual report. According to the 140 filings table on page 51, the 140 filings for EB3 has been low for the last few years at approximately 20K, and drops off to 5k and 485 for FY 2013 and 2014. Even factoring in the backlogged countries inability to file 485's, shouldn't the table correspond to the 485's and shouldn't we have seen EB3 spillovers in 10s of thousands to the backlogged countries by now. What am I missing? Could you help me understand the 140 table?

[tiredtotrack]

Any idea why they would do that? Hiding/not giving country wise data. Is it because its difficult to derive that or something else is cooking?

[YTeleven]

Hi YT,
Any change in your earlier predictions?

If you go back and look at my earlier posts, exactly a year ago I had projected 12k as the EB2I allocations in FY15. At the beginning of FY15 I changed that figure to 16k and 2 months ago I reduced it further to 14k and now if I relook at the available data pointers I’m circling back to 12k or even lesser figure and definitely not more. I don’t want to speculate anymore as we are almost at the end of the year and we will know in 2 or 3 months what could be that number. Instead I wanted to put my thoughts here for a long term view on EB-India. I was advocating for a longtime now that EB3-I backlogs will get wiped off in FY16 and it’s the time for beginning of the action. The brake-ups on the 140 numbers from this document: http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fil...Report_508.pdfis incredible and I was looking this kind of a data for long time. Thanks to Spec for pointing to this document. Though Spec rejected the numbers for FY14 from that document thinking that those were erroneous but I’m accepting those breakups even if I append a digit to the EB3-I figure:485 I’m still OK as those breakups will prove my long term prediction on EB3-I : EB3-I Projections.We have seen a very less action for last 9 months and even if it continues like that for the next 3 months I don’t worry as I am expecting there will be an intense action takes place in next 18 months and I’m expecting the following things will occur:
1) EB2-I becoming a new EB3-I in terms of backlogs
2) Complete Wipeout of EB3-I backlogs
3) EB2-I getting relief from a complete STOP on porting of EB3I-EB2I
4) People realizing a new avenue to circumvent the dense backlogs of EB2-I by the way of downgrading from EB2-I to EB3-I
5) More importantly inventory building of EB2-I and EB3-I.
6) Continuous domination of India in all the three EB categories 1, 2 & 3. We will not get surprised if EB-India alone gets 50K to 60K visas in these 3 categories put together on yearly basis.
Yes. We will witness all the above in the next 18 months i.e. till the end of CY16.

[gc-4-gc]

If you go back and look at my earlier posts, exactly a year ago I had projected 12k as the EB2I allocations in FY15. At the beginning of FY15 I changed that figure to 16k and 2 months ago I reduced it further to 14k and now if I relook at the available data pointers I’m circling back to 12k or even lesser figure and definitely not more. I don’t want to speculate anymore as we are almost at the end of the year and we will know in 2 or 3 months what could be that number. Instead I wanted to put my thoughts here for a long term view on EB-India. I was advocating for a longtime now that EB3-I backlogs will get wiped off in FY16 and it’s the time for beginning of the action. The brake-ups on the 140 numbers from this document: http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fil...Report_508.pdfis incredible and I was looking this kind of a data for long time. Thanks to Spec for pointing to this document. Though Spec rejected the numbers for FY14 from that document thinking that those were erroneous but I’m accepting those breakups even if I append a digit to the EB3-I figure:485 I’m still OK as those breakups will prove my long term prediction on EB3-I : EB3-I Projections.We have seen a very less action for last 9 months and even if it continues like that for the next 3 months I don’t worry as I am expecting there will be an intense action takes place in next 18 months and I’m expecting the following things will occur:
1) EB2-I becoming a new EB3-I in terms of backlogs
2) Complete Wipeout of EB3-I backlogs
3) EB2-I getting relief from a complete STOP on porting of EB3I-EB2I
4) People realizing a new avenue to circumvent the dense backlogs of EB2-I by the way of downgrading from EB2-I to EB3-I
5) More importantly inventory building of EB2-I and EB3-I.
6) Continuous domination of India in all the three EB categories 1, 2 & 3. We will not get surprised if EB-India alone gets 50K to 60K visas in these 3 categories put together on yearly basis.
Yes. We will witness all the above in the next 18 months i.e. till the end of CY16.

Hi YT,
I looked up the data in 2015 USCIS Ombudsman report. Astonishing for EB3. If EB3 ROW becomes current and subsequently undersubscribed, do other EB3 areas get preference for using undersubscribed numbers over EB1, EB2?

[Jagan01]

If you go back and look at my earlier posts, exactly a year ago I had projected 12k as the EB2I allocations in FY15. At the beginning of FY15 I changed that figure to 16k and 2 months ago I reduced it further to 14k and now if I relook at the available data pointers I’m circling back to 12k or even lesser figure and definitely not more

YT,
I had mentioned back then when you made the prediction 2 months ago that the SO for EB2I will be much lesser. Please refer the post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5767#post55767
I would still feel that we can see a total of 8k-9k visas for EB2I (which means SO of approx 5k-6k) and still move into 2009 by the end of this FY.

[EB2-03252009]

YT,
I had mentioned back then when you made the prediction 2 months ago that the SO for EB2I will be much lesser. Please refer the post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5767#post55767
I would still feel that we can see a total of 8k-9k visas for EB2I (which means SO of approx 5k-6k) and still move into 2009 by the end of this FY.

Will it reach Apr/May 2009?

[Jagan01]

Will it reach Apr/May 2009?

Difficult to talk in terms of PD. I expect approx total of 8k-9k visas for EB2I in this FY. Following factors will decide the date movement.
1. Porting demand increase (there is no official number of this)
2. CO may decide different strategies
-- Consider that EB2I gets 9k total for this FY and CO decides that he is anyways going to use the next years allocation in Oct to Dec then he might advance dates considerably more than what demand-supply dictates. In that event dates might advance more.
-- CO might just stay conservative and wait till the very last minute and move the dates as late as possible. Therefore trying to stick as close to the statistics and just give buffer enough to ensure that there is no visa wastage.

I personally feel that it is difficult to guess the date movement accurately because a lot is left up to the CO to decide. IMO the dates will reach Mar 2009 (realistic) and anything beyond that is a bonus and should be welcomed.

[SV2007]

Hi YT,

Wonderful analysis.

EB3 applicants with PD up to Dec 2004 are reporting RFE in trackitt, so most likely (and hopefully) EB3I moves at least to Dec 2004 in FY15 (within the next month or two). This would leave the remaining inventory in EB3I at 17K as of Oct 1st, 2015. This is also very much in line with your predictions several months ago.

Would you anticipate CO building inventory for EB3I in FY16 or will it be in FY17?

[NewHope]

August Bulletin out : http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...gust-2015.html
No Movement for EB2I and EB3I 1 Jun 2004

[Spectator]

Thanks for the heads up.

Also of note is that EB3 China retrogressed over 7 years from 01SEP11 to 01JUN04 (the same as EB3-India and EB3 Philippines(who were Unavailable in July)):

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN EMPLOYMENT THIRD, AND THIRD OTHER WORKER VISA AVAILABILITY

There was an extremely large increase in applicant demand reported for consideration in the determination of the August cut-off dates. Therefore, it has been necessary to retrogress the Employment Third, and Third Other Worker cut-off dates to hold number use within the FY-2015 annual limit.

Every effort will be made to return those categories to the previously announced July cut-off dates as quickly as possible under the FY-2016 annual limits. Those limits will take effect October 1, 2015.

EB3-ROW and EB3 Mexico advance 3.5 months to 15JUL15.

EB2 China advanced 2.5 months to 15DEC13.

[gcq]

Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details

My lawyer received the RFE today
For myself
1.G-325A,
2.Medical,
3. EVL
4. Documentary evidence of all non-immigrant status granted to you since last lawful admission
5. Employment authorization since last lawful admission


For my wife:
1.G-325A,
2.Medical

[Moveon]

Guru, how much time have they given to reply to the RFEs. Is it 12 weeks std for all including the EVL?.
My question in context of planning an India Trip and that gives me an Idea for how long to stay out.

[axecapone]

Hey guys

I am trying to look at PERM data for some analysis. Basically I am interested in looking at number of PERMs filed by country's chargeability and cross-country chargeability: i.e. when the country of birth is not the same as country of citizenship. Is there anyway to get this data or generally data around PERM?

I thought this link was supposed to work but looks like its not working anymore

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rmancedata.cfm

[Spectator]

Hey guys

I am trying to look at PERM data for some analysis. Basically I am interested in looking at number of PERMs filed by country's chargeability and cross-country chargeability: i.e. when the country of birth is not the same as country of citizenship. Is there anyway to get this data or generally data around PERM?

I thought this link was supposed to work but looks like its not working anymore

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rmancedata.cfm

OFLC included the information on both Country of Citizenship an Country of Birth for the first time in the Q2 FY2015 PERM disclosure figures. Technically it has been available in the ETA9089 information within the DOL LCR system.

I have the data for the first half FY2015 PERM Certifications. It should be reasonably accurate. I've only shown numbers for cases where there was a difference.

Birth Country shown below Country of Citizenship.

INDIA Citizenship

CHINA ------------ 2
PHILIPPINES ------ 3
ROW ------------ 156

CHINA Citizenship

ROW -------------- 3

MEXICO Citizenship

CHINA ------------ 1
ROW -------------- 8

PHILIPPINES Citizenship

ROW -------------- 1

ROW Citizenship

INDIA ---------- 208
CHINA ---------- 254
MEXICO ---------- 11
PHILIPPINES ----- 21
ROW ------------ 988 (i.e. Different Country of Birth, but still ROW)

Grand Total ----------- 1,656

Total Certifications - 36,373



Hope that helps you out.

[krishn]

I asked for EVL from corporate, they issued a standard 2 line EVL, with job title and salary.
Is it required to have job duties in it?

The HR dept have lost the job posting coz its been several years they have hired me.

Any suggestions on EVL format and contents.


Thanks

My lawyer received the RFE today
For myself
1.G-325A,
2.Medical,
3. EVL
4. Documentary evidence of all non-immigrant status granted to you since last lawful admission
5. Employment authorization since last lawful admission


For my wife:
1.G-325A,
2.Medical

[krishn]

is uscis asking to do biometris?

Doesn't USCIS need Biometrics, fingerprints? I have just done it only once in 2k7.

My lawyer received the RFE today
For myself
1.G-325A,
2.Medical,
3. EVL
4. Documentary evidence of all non-immigrant status granted to you since last lawful admission
5. Employment authorization since last lawful admission


For my wife:
1.G-325A,
2.Medical