I am wondering if CO is so certain about the EB2I not moving this year then why was it not put in the comments section of VB?
I am wondering if CO is so certain about the EB2I not moving this year then why was it not put in the comments section of VB?
Exactly. I feel that Fragomen has derived the conclusion out of COs previous comments. There has been no official statement regarding no further movement either in the comments section of the VB or via other channels like AILA.Originally Posted by suninphx
Jagan,
Don't underestimate Fragomen. Last year in June first week, they released similar news about visa dates movement. That time, no other website (AILA, etc.) had reported it, neither did the prior visa bulletin mentioned about it. Looking back, their news was fairly accurate and played out over the next 2-3 months.
We shall see what happens. All indicators point to the fact that there will be forward movement in the remainder of this FY.
Hi Spec and YT, what are your prognoses for EB3I? Still expecting FA of 3K to 4K?
Spec,imdeng and Jagan:
Thanks for your replies.
We all know that CO didn't communicate anything officially regarding end of FY movement(worst or otherwise) for EB2I. Any upcoming meeting by AILA with CO? Do AILA meet CO every month or so?
can this be the reason for not moving the dates?
Last year July bulletin moved to Sept 2008. This year in June itself it moved to Oct 2008, now if they had moved the dates at same pace, then SO would have be exhausted by the time it reached FY end, say Aug-Sept 2015 and then they need to retrogress for just one month and move it again to 2009 to utilize the new FY quota visas. Instead of this, they stalled it for this month to be in sync with last yr movement and move it accordingly so that it can hold moving into new FY. could this be a valid reason?
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
No official reason was given thus far. It's all conjectures until official from CO/DoS.
How frequently do you update this data Spec. This is very critical part of information and I would request you to update it weekly if possible. The EB2ROW approval number is the most vital piece of information and I am thinking it will end up being a perfect sine wave that peaked in April.
Jagan,
The data is updated several times per day.
I did give advance notice of the break in continuity.
The short break was because I was out of the country and did not have access to my files.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Thanks a lot for the effort. It really provides very useful data.
YT and Spectator --
My PD is Oct/2004 - eb3-I. Just wondering when the dates would be current.
Appreciate your input.
I have same PD and I have the same question.
For sure it will be in FY16. If you see my earlier posts, this is what we predicted more than a year now. It’s in 2 stages, in the first stage the EB3-ROW should get current and stay current from there on. This is happening now, for the last 3 months EB3-ROW is technically current and moving towards ‘C’. In second stage we will see not having much demand of EB3-ROW to meet the yearly EB3 quota of 40k. This we will see in early FY16 and at the end of FY16 we will see EB3-ROW giving huge horizontal SO that makes EB3-I clearing existing backlogs quickly.
Someone posted in trackitt.com that he got medical RFE for the PD 06/30/2009. Is this good sign?
Thanks YT!
No one could tell. Last year they sent RFEs as far as Oct 2009 PDs but nothing happened.
Looks like ALL of the rfe's are from Nebraska Service Center for EB3-I. has anyone noticed rfe's from Texas Service Center ?
I think that's not EB3-I. That might be EB2-I.
from oh-law firm, this is really disappointing..
06/15/2015: EB-2 India Visa Bulletin Prediction by Oppenheim of DOS
AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim, Unexpectedly, during the past few months, the EB-2 demand for worldwide increased more than doubled, and therefore the EB-2 India cut-off date had to hold steady in July 2015. Should this trend continues, Oppenheim predicts that EB-2 India may not move forward during August and September 2015. Ouch!
YT - Is there a possibility for EB3 India to move in the coming Two Visa bulletins ? If so how much ?
We should get some SO, have been waiting for a decade now. Thanks!
As per the current trend EB3-ROW would not be able to use their yearly quota in 2015. Isn't EB3-I supposed to receive some SO in 2015 FY? Why haven't we received SO yet?
This from Ron Gotcher for EB1, EB2 and EB3. He normally reproduces the text as it was given by AILA.
http://www.immigration-information.c....18172/page-38
Even at this stage, CO does not seem to expect EB3-I to receive FA within EB3, as he has stubbornly stuck to his forecast of 1-2 weeks per month. The fact that EB3-ROW is likely to stop moving forward in FY2016, then possibly retrogress at a later stage suggests fairly healthy demand.Here are some of the highlights from this month's liaison meeting with Charlie Oppenheim:
Employment-Based First and Second Preference Categories.
EB-1 and EB-2 worldwide is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.
Charlie anticipates continuing forward movement in EB-2 China, but at a slower pace through this fiscal year.
As a result of the advancement of EB-2 India earlier this year, advancement in this category is expected to slow as we approach the end of the fiscal year, primarily due to EB-3 upgrades.
Unexpectedly, demand for EB-2 worldwide has more than doubled over the past few months, causing the EB-2 India cut-off date to hold steady in July.
Unless there is a significant decline in EB-2 worldwide demand, Charlie does not anticipate any forward movement in EB-2 India for the rest of this fiscal year.
Employment-Based Third Preference.
Charlie expects EB-3 worldwide to reach the summer of 2015 by the end of this fiscal year and expects that the cut-off date will hold steady for some time before deciding whether some other type of corrective action is required for the next fiscal year.
The EB-3 China cut-off date is expected to remain the same through the rest of the fiscal year.
EB-3 India is expected to advance by one to two weeks.
EB-3 Mexico will continue to follow EB-3 worldwide.
One of the most dramatic actions for July is that the EB-3 Philippines and "other worker" categories will become unavailable, and will likely remain so through this fiscal year.
QUESTION 1: Because the worldwide EB-3 category has advanced so rapidly since March 2015, is there any indication when corrective action may be required?
ANSWER: I believe that the initial corrective action will begin no later than October, and that will be holding the cut-off date steady for several months. I estimate that it takes at least five months from the day an applicant files their adjustment application until USCIS has finalized all required processing and requests a number. Therefore, I will not see the impact of the May cut-off date movement until October, June movement until November, etc.
It is extremely hard to predict how quickly the level of demand would start to exceed my monthly targets for FY2016 number use. Should the level of demand begin to exceed the targeted level, then further corrective action would be considered.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
This is mind boggling, to say the least. What EB3RoW demand is he looking at that would require holding the forecast for EB3I to 1-2 weeks per month? Unless trackitt sampling is way off this year, approvable EB3RoW demand should still render an FA to EB3I.
What could be going on? Has USCIS shared the April inventory with CO? Or an accurate one at that?
I am also confused. All along it was predicted that there would be excess by end of Aug/Sep 2015. We hoped some SO this year in ranges from 1000 to 5000. Now it seems they might waste some visas in EB3 this year.
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