EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[YTeleven]

YT, When do you expect next inventory build up for EB2-I based on 15k expected SO this FY?
My PD is Feb 2011. Do you think it will be with the start of next FY (oct-nov)?

Please follow my earlier posts or this one: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5783#post55783. The estimated 14k figure was NOT an SO it’s the expected total visa allocations to EB2-I in FY15. I did not do any estimation on PD movements but if you ask me to guess I would say it will be till Sep’09 by this Sep 30th so that CO can grab all the low hanging fruits in that range whose medicals are not expired. Regarding inventory build-up I would expect it will certainly happen in FY16 but the date movements will depend on ROW demand and processing delays, check this old post: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3828#post53828

[Spectator]

After a short sojourn, I have updated the Trackitt figures in FACTS & DATA.

[Jagan01]

After a short sojourn, I have updated the Trackitt figures in FACTS & DATA.

Thanks for the data Spec.

[axecapone]

EB-5 is up for renewal and looks like Grassley and others plan on renewing it but this time they want to raise the bar. I am wondering if this is likely to have any "significant" side effect on other EB movement (specifically EB2-I and EB3-I).

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/...egional-center

[Spectator]

We know that the FY15Q1 approvals were 30% lesser than the average (31k) in a typical quarter: I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf and CO was talking about the surge in demand during Feb15 to Apr15. We still have 5 more months left in the remaining period of FY15. This surge could be expanded further or get subsided. I’m hoping that this is a temporary surge reflecting the underlying processing dynamics. We will know more in next 2 months.

YT,

What you say is true about the typical approval figures for a quarter, but it is possible that this year is not typical.

For instance, compared to Q1 FY2014, Q1 FY2015 had far fewer EB2-I approvals (c. 6k) and far fewer EB3 approvals (c. 10k), so it is not necessarily surprising that quarterly approvals were so low. Similarly, EB1 and EB3 approvals were low in Q2 FY2015 compared to Q2 FY2014.

The USCIS approval numbers to date for FY2015 are quite analogous to FY2011 :

Q1 - 21.4k vs. 24.0k
Q2 - 26.2k vs. 21.9k

In FY2011, EB2-I ultimately received 24k approvals, but only because EB1 gave 15k Fall Down and EB4 and EB5 had fewer approvals at that time. EB2-WW did not contribute Fall Across.

Another factor to consider is that EB5 and EB3-P have probably received large numbers of approvals in the first 2 quarters and both have high CP rates that will not be reflected in the USCIS figures.

In the very best case, it is perhaps possible that your figure might be achieved (as you say, there is some time to the end of the FY), but the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage. EB2-WW approvals remained at elevated levels in May and seem healthy to date in June. They need to collapse significantly for EB2-I to receive significant spillover. The number of pending cases do not suggest that. USCIS processing delays would be a more likely cause, but that can hurt EB2-I as well.

[idiotic]

YT,

What you say is true about the typical approval figures for a quarter, but it is possible that this year is not typical.

For instance, compared to Q1 FY2014, Q1 FY2015 had far fewer EB2-I approvals (c. 6k) and far fewer EB3 approvals (c. 10k), so it is not necessarily surprising that quarterly approvals were so low. Similarly, EB1 and EB3 approvals were low in Q2 FY2015 compared to Q2 FY2014.

The USCIS approval numbers to date for FY2015 are quite analogous to FY2011 :

Q1 - 21.4k vs. 24.0k
Q2 - 26.2k vs. 21.9k

In FY2011, EB2-I ultimately received 24k approvals, but only because EB1 gave 15k Fall Down and EB4 and EB5 had fewer approvals at that time. EB2-WW did not contribute Fall Across.

Another factor to consider is that EB5 and EB3-P have probably received large numbers of approvals in the first 2 quarters and both have high CP rates that will not be reflected in the USCIS figures.

In the very best case, it is perhaps possible that your figure might be achieved (as you say, there is some time to the end of the FY), but the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage. EB2-WW approvals remained at elevated levels in May and seem healthy to date in June. They need to collapse significantly for EB2-I to receive significant spillover. The number of pending cases do not suggest that. USCIS processing delays would be a more likely cause, but that can hurt EB2-I as well.

You have spoiled my party with your objective thinking

[tenyearsgone]

You have spoiled my party with your objective thinking

My thoughts exactly ... but thanks Spec for the dose of reality. Thanks YT too for the optimism and calculations.. appreciate your efforts! For those of us who are waiting in line, we need checks on both optimism and reality

[Spectator]

I want to make it very clear that I am not saying YT is wrong. The arguments are well thought out. We are very fortunate to have YT as part of the forum and I follow the posts as avidly as anyone else.

I completely understand where YT is coming from, particularly as we enter the last quarter and EB2-I approvals generally ramp up and other approvals slow down.

My thoughts are just a counterpoint to those views. I think it important to understand both sides of the equation. I've suggested a possible reason why approvals in the first half of the FY might be lower than normal - it doesn't follow that those thoughts are correct.

I am concerned that EB2-WW approvals have not shown any signs of slowing down so far and that the gap between current use and the allocation available only narrows as the approvals continue.

Let's just hope for the best, yet recognize that it may not be as good as we hoped for.

[YTeleven]

Spec,

Thanks for your comments.

I too agree with you: the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage.
I see last 4 consecutive quarters’ I-140 approvals are already headed into a historical high: 86k approvals.
Last time we saw this kind of approvals was during FY11Q3 to FY12Q2: 85k approvals and we all know what happened in FY12: EB2-ROW became unavailable.
But there is a difference in then and now: the India share in PERM increased, rate of India porting is increased and I'm hoping that there are more no of India applications in those 86k I-140 approvals which will just go into cold storage.

Still for some reason I’m not able to predict any low figure as low as 10k for EB2-I this year. I would like to see more data pointers to convince myself.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for your comments.

I too agree with you: the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage.
I see last 4 consecutive quarters’ I-140 approvals are already headed into a historical high: 86k approvals.
Last time we saw this kind of approvals was during FY11Q3 to FY12Q2: 85k approvals and we all know what happened in FY12: EB2-ROW became unavailable.
But there is a difference in then and now: the India share in PERM increased, rate of India porting is increased and I'm hoping that there are more no of India applications in those 86k I-140 approvals which will just go into cold storage.

Still for some reason I’m not able to predict any low figure as low as 10k for EB2-I this year. I would like to see more data pointers to convince myself.

YT,

Thanks for your insights.

Here's what I am seeing on PERM approvals this year:

ROW ------ 1,750 / month average
Mexico ------ 115 /month average
Philippines --- 100 / month average

Worldwide - 1,965 / month average

China ------- 480 / month average

India ----- 3,690 / month average **

** Around 5k CTS cases were approved in March and April (which distorted the normal % distribution). Excluding that one off injection of Indian approvals, the India figure becomes:

India ----- 3,060 / month average

and the underlying % of Indian PERM certifications remains fairly constant at around 56%.

China represents around 9% and WW represents around 35%.

Including the CTS approvals raises India to 60%, reduces China to 8% and reduces WW to 32%.

It's important to note that the underlying numbers for China and WW haven't changed. Only the % has reduced due to increased India certifications because of CTS cases coming out of Audit/BALCA.

What we do seem to be seeing lately is the start of slower processing by OFLC. That will ultimately be good for India (since it will depress WW certifications for a period of time), but I think that change has happened too late to have an effect on FY2015 I-485 approvals.

[Kanmani]

July 2015 Bulletin is out. No movement for EB2I . 01 Oct 2008.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2015.html

[cursedguy]

July 2015 Bulletin is out. No movement for EB2I . 01 Oct 2008.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2015.html

Does that mean .. it will stay at the date rest of this USCIS year for EB2I?

[geterdone]

Does that mean .. it will stay at the date rest of this USCIS year for EB2I?

I am wondering if this has to do more with the slow rate of approvals? Not seeing many approvals especially from TSC. I hope they will move forward in the next two bulletins.

With a Nov 2009 PD I was hoping to get it next year, but now even that looks doubtful!

[jimmys]

Does July 15 VB mean doors shut for EB2I for this FY? It is inline with CO's comments with AILA. Any different opinions?

[imdeng]

I don't believe the doors are shut for this FY. It just means that they are still waiting to figure out how much spillover will come to EB2-I. We should still see some movement in Aug and Sept.

The problem though is that a good chunk of Medical RFEs were submitted in July last year. All of those are now expired and folks are now looking at another RFE for Medical (and the associated hassle and expense) whenever the time comes. Frustrating so say the least!

Does July 15 VB mean doors shut for EB2I for this FY? It is inline with CO's comments with AILA. Any different opinions?

[Spectator]

I don't believe the doors are shut for this FY. It just means that they are still waiting to figure out how much spillover will come to EB2-I. We should still see some movement in Aug and Sept.

The problem though is that a good chunk of Medical RFEs were submitted in July last year. All of those are now expired and folks are now looking at another RFE for Medical (and the associated hassle and expense) whenever the time comes. Frustrating so say the least!

imdeng,

I agree.

We've seen CO wait until August to move the date as recently as FY2013 (when the date moved from 01SEP04 to 01JAN08).

I think he wants to see how EB2-WW approvals develop over the next month.

As you've said, the problem with that strategy is the expiration of Medicals submitted last year.

[krishn]

any ideas, when will it be released ? will July and April be released together at the same time ;-?

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory

[Jagan01]

Does July 15 VB mean doors shut for EB2I for this FY? It is inline with CO's comments with AILA. Any different opinions?

Agree with Spec and imdeng. There will be forward movement in Aug and Sep. I still believe EB2I would end up getting 10k total visas this FY and that would translate to a movement to May 2009 by the ending of this the FY.

[Spectator]

From Fragomen.

July 2015 Visa Bulletin: EB-3 Philippines Unavailable; Advancements for EB-2 and EB-5 China, EB-3 Worldwide and India
06/10/2015
According to the State Department’s July Visa Bulletin, the EB-3 subcategory for professionals and skilled workers will become unavailable for the Philippines next month. EB-3 will advance one week for India, to February 1, 2004; will remain unchanged for China, at September 1, 2011; and will advance by six weeks for all other countries, to April 1, 2015.

The EB-3 other worker subcategory will advance one week for India, to February 1, 2004, and by six weeks for most countries, to April 1, 2015. It will remain unchanged for China, at January 1, 2006, and will become unavailable for the Philippines.

EB-2 China will advance by four months, to October 1, 2013, and EB-2 India will remain at October 1, 2008.

EB-5 China – which became subject to a cut-off date for the first time earlier this year – will advance by four months, to September 1, 2013.

Employment-Based Immigrant Visa Projections for the Coming Months

State Department officials project that EB-2 India will not advance further this fiscal year. Because immigrant visa demand from other countries has doubled, it is unlikely that unused visa numbers from other categories will be available for application to EB-2 India, as had been the case in prior years. Priority date advancements for EB-2 China will be slow for the remainder of this fiscal year.

EB-3 China is likely to remain at its current cut-off date for the rest of the year, while EB-3 India will remain at its current pace of one to two weeks of advancement per month. EB-3 Philippines could become available again in September if unused visa numbers from other Philippines subcategories become available. For all other countries, EB-3 is likely to advance by several months through this summer.

EB-5 China is expected to advance further over the coming months.

Not good, if true.

I still don't fully understand what is going on with EB3, since EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt are still quite low. I was (and still am really) expecting some FA to EB3-I. Surely EB3-P can't have used that many and still stayed within the 7% limit.

http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresourc...erts&news=3173

[vedu]

Spec:

Now that the EB2I date is not going to advance any more for this year, will EB2I retrogress at the beginning of the new year? Or will October, 2008 be the absolute bottom for future years?

From Fragomen.



Not good, if true.

I still don't fully understand what is going on with EB3, since EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt are still quite low. I was (and still am really) expecting some FA to EB3-I. Surely EB3-P can't have used that many and still stayed within the 7% limit.

http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresourc...erts&news=3173

[Spectator]

Spec:

Now that the EB2I date is not going to advance any more for this year, will EB2I retrogress at the beginning of the new year? Or will October, 2008 be the absolute bottom for future years?

vedu,

As I said previously, I don't entirely believe that will be the case for the remainder of the year. I still hope to see further movement in the last 2 months.

As for next FY, that depends on the strategy CO adopts. He's chopped and changed over the years.

The initial allocation of 3k alone is not sufficient to support holding the COD at October 2008 - there are too many cases becoming qualified with much earlier dates than that.

[vedu]

Thanks for the response, Spec. When Fragomen puts something on their website, most of the time it is fairly close. When I asked you the question, I was thinking may be EB3I will receive some spill across, and thus the porting pressure on EB2I will lessen to some extent, resulting in October 2008 as a new baseline for the next year which can be supported by the quarterly allocation. In case of any retrogression, hope it will not be as bad as this year.

vedu,

As I said previously, I don't entirely believe that will be the case for the remainder of the year. I still hope to see further movement in the last 2 months.

As for next FY, that depends on the strategy CO adopts. He's chopped and changed over the years.

The initial allocation of 3k alone is not sufficient to support holding the COD at October 2008 - there are too many cases becoming qualified with much earlier dates than that.

[Jagan01]

The initial allocation of 3k alone is not sufficient to support holding the COD at October 2008 - there are too many cases becoming qualified with much earlier dates than that.

The recent strategy has been to use the initial 3k in Oct-Nov of the FY. Hence whatever date Sep 2015 will end at (lets say May 2009) will end up consuming the initial allocation. After that retrogression to a date sometime in 2006 would be the most expected outcome.

[aquatican]

Typically i find that when Fragomen gets information from DOS it has always been accurate. Do not expect dates to move this year and Plan Accordingly.
This statement seems pretty simple to understand - State Department officials project that EB-2 India will not advance further this fiscal year. Because immigrant visa demand from other countries has doubled, it is unlikely that unused visa numbers from other categories will be available for application to EB-2 India, as had been the case in prior years.

Its quite obvious that Eb 2 India will have negligible spillover due to excessive demand in EB2 ROW.
I have now waited 6 years for my PD of June 17 2009 to even get EAD. Bunkered in to wait 12 more months until June 2016.

[sandykolu]

Please move the discussion to appropriate thread. Dates have been moving to 2009 and back for the last 2 years and it may very well be the case for the next 3-4 years. I believe EB3 - EB2 porting is one of the causes for this. USCIS needs to stop allowing to keep the PD while porting from EB3 to EB2. I am not saying it is fair to the eb3 folks waiting in the queue for ages, but logically it does not make sense that experience gained while in eb3 queue should allow people to port into eb2 keeping the eb3 PD. USCIS should get rid of porting from eb3 to eb2 while keeping the eb3 PD if they want to seriously make any movement for the next few years.
Though not related, they did get rid of labor substitution in 2007. I believe they should do something similar in this case too.
This discussion is not about whether eb2 cases are genuine or not and how eb2 suffers at the hands of eb1 (genuine or not).