EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[saagar_is_cool]

Oh Well... status quo continues. Only 5.5 months this time for EB2I. Next month will be the important one a we will enter 4th quarter.
EB3ROW continues to resist becoming current. Going from 01Jan2015 to 15Feb2015 makes no difference to anything at all.
EB2C made a big inventory building jump of 1 year.
All the missing demand in EB3P has come back with a vengeance.

Spec, Q and gurus,

I was hoping it would move to Nov 2008 atleast, so that my pd of apr 17 2009 has chances of becoming current injuly bulletin atleast. At this point, I ama little disappointd. Can you throw some light on what are my chances of getting GC this year with apr 17 2009 are? I am a first time filer in Sep 2014 and RD is Sep 2 2014.

[Spectator]

Spec, Q and gurus,

I was hoping it would move to Nov 2008 at least, so that my pd of apr 17 2009 has chances of becoming current in july bulletin at least. At this point, I am a little disappointed. Can you throw some light on what are my chances of getting GC this year with apr 17 2009 are? I am a first time filer in Sep 2014 and RD is Sep 2 2014.

saagar,

I fear it will be quite difficult.

It doesn't look as if you will become current in July since that would require a 6 3/4 months forward movement and about 3k visas. If that is correct, August would be the earliest you might become current.

Your medical expires on September 2 and you don't mention an RFE for a new I-693. You may therefore have as little as a 1 month window for your case to be adjudicated in what is frankly lottery season.

Best of luck.

[saagar_is_cool]

saagar,

I fear it will be quite difficult.

It doesn't look as if you will become current in July since that would require a 6 3/4 months forward movement and about 3k visas. If that is correct, August would be the earliest you might become current.

Your medical expires on September 2 and you don't mention an RFE for a new I-693. You may therefore have as little as a 1 month window for your case to be adjudicated in what is frankly lottery season.

Best of luck.

Thanks a lot for the reply Spec. I did not receive any RFE yet. So I just have to probably pray to the stars! I rushed to file on day 1 last year to get my RD earliest in hope of faster processing. In hindsight, I should have delayed filing till end of September or so It does not seem fair that the persons who filed first get the stick with this I-693 1 year validity rule. Fingers crossed Thanks again.

[perestroika]

disappointing, I don't know the point to keep moving EB3ROW a month instead of make it current and start moving EB3I
EB3ROW is current since couple of months now and i don't see any data that can tell me there are any surprise.
The only thing i can think of is that they have already good inventory for EB3I until this PDs, anything else is just nonsense.

I think there are a few things at play here:
1. CO doesn't want to repeat his FY2013 performance, where he moved EB3RoW too slowly and artificially reduced the approvable EB3RoW demand, thereby increasing the FA base for EB3I. From his statements to AILA recently, it can be inferred that he wants to maximize EB3RoW consumption before applying any FA to EB3I this year. So, a sizable EB3I movement, if any, might happen only in September.
2. CO is covering his butt. Even though EB3RoW is technically "Current", he has not turned EB3RoW "Current" on paper. In the event that there is no FA available to EB3I because of high EB3RoW consumption, he can always say, "I had told you so". CO clearly indicated to AILA recently that EB3I will get some FA only if EB3RoW turns "Current". Appearances matter. In my view, he's just following his own script to maintain his credibility and avoid any controversies.

Just my thoughts anyway. I welcome others' thoughts.

[Spectator]

The Service Center Processing Times have been updated today.

As of March 31, 2015 the I-485 processing times for EB cases are :

NSC - November 16, 2014 (4.5 months)
TSC - August 15, 2014 (7.5 months)

Not that the dates necessarily ever bear any resemblance to reality!

[bluelabel]

The Service Center Processing Times have been updated today.

As of March 31, 2015 the I-485 processing times for EB cases are :

NSC - November 16, 2014 (4.5 months)
TSC - August 15, 2014 (7.5 months)

Not that the dates necessarily ever bear any resemblance to reality!

Looks like TSC will only approve ROW cases filed before 02/15/2015 by end of this FY. Is it an indicator for little more spillover than anticipated for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Looks like TSC will only approve ROW cases filed before 02/15/2015 by end of this FY. Is it an indicator for little more spillover than anticipated for EB2I?

bluelabel,

I think the answer to that would be a categorical yes and no.

Yes in the sense that had TSC processing times not lengthened, then it could have been worse.

No in the sense that despite that, EB2-non IC still appear to have received significant approvals this FY. The TSC times would have to continue to slip during the remainder of the FY.

If TSC processing times improve, it will inject even more cases at that time (but maybe that is next FY).

The problem is the processing times are notoriously inaccurate, although it does appear that TSC processing is quite slow at the moment.

Finally, we know that EB I-485 have been subject to transfer between SC - we don't know how many or where they were transferred from and who received them and when they received them. It could be that NSC now have more EB cases than TSC, but there is no way to tell whether that is the case (or not the case).

I wouldn't read too much into the processing times.

[jimmys]

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

[mechanical13]

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

The only accurate answer to this question would be less than or equal to 100% . I would say less than 100% with a power of 90%.

Sorry, feeling a little nerdy.

[redsox2009]

I did not notice untill today that in last three months China EB2 moved almost a year in each Bulletin.

[YTeleven]

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

[Spectator]

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

YT,

Good for you for sticking to your guns.

A couple of observations about the forecast.

a) You are predicting that EB2-NonIC will use around 24k (compared to 22k in FY2014). I believe that is a very low figure that is not borne out by what has been seen to date in the FY.

b) You show EB5 use as 11.5k, which is slightly over 1k more than the allocation. I'm not sure if you believe EB5 will be over allocated or not, or whether it is a minor error.

[skpanda]

Hello Friends,
Sorry to post this question here. I will delete it later.

Can you please check the below query and confirm my understanding.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Different-City


Thanks for your help!

[jimmys]

YTeleven:
Thanks for your prediction and the link. I hope and wish it becomes 90% true again.

[idiotic]

Query regarding the EB-5 spillover numbers.. Since EB5-C has cutoff date now, if X spillover visas are available in EB5 category before the end of year, will the excess numbers go to EB5-C or it will go to EB1 and continue from there?

[geterdone]

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

If someone has a pd of Dec 1st, 2009 then you have roughly 15K applications till then pending. I do understand that porting will add more applicants. So based on your calculations EB2 India will get roughly 16750. So will the dates move that far? All the calculations are showing June to July 2009 as the best case scenario.

[Spectator]

Query regarding the EB-5 spillover numbers.. Since EB5-C has cutoff date now, if X spillover visas are available in EB5 category before the end of year, will the excess numbers go to EB5-C or it will go to EB1 and continue from there?

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

[aquatican]

Hey Spec,
It would be nice to have the inventory report, wouldnt it?

[qesehmk]

Spec - just curious where you are getting the 144,730 number from?

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

[Jagan01]

Spec - just curious where you are getting the 144,730 number from?

Annual limits for FY2015.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...cal_Limits.pdf

[qesehmk]

Annual limits for FY2015.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...cal_Limits.pdf

Thanks Jagan. The visa bulletin still shows 140K only. That's why I asked.

[Spectator]

Thanks Jagan. The visa bulletin still shows 140K only. That's why I asked.

Q,

The VB will continue to show "at least 140,000" until DOS receives the information from USCIS needed to calculate the exact figure.

The official figure is usually only published in the September VB because USCIS are so slow in providing the required information. It took them until July 24th last year.

[bikenlalan]

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

Spec, Why do you say that there will be no spillover from EB5 to EB1? EB5 has 10275 this FY, and as per the Jan 2015 inventory the total inventory for EB5 is 124 of which China is 66. I do understand having a cut-off for China, but no fall from EB5 to EB1 does not make sense to me. Can you explain this?

[Spectator]

Spec, Why do you say that there will be no spillover from EB5 to EB1? EB5 has 10275 this FY, and as per the Jan 2015 inventory the total inventory for EB5 is 124 of which China is 66. I do understand having a cut-off for China, but no fall from EB5 to EB1 does not make sense to me. Can you explain this?

bikenlalan,

The Inventory does not provide any useful information for EB5.

Nearly 90% of EB5 cases are Consular Processed.

If you look at the NVC data as of November 1, 2014 EB5 already had 6,418 cases waiting for a visa abroad based on an approved I-526. Of these, 5,169 were for China.

[idiotic]

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

Thanks for your time and detailed explnation Spec. Much appreciated.