Q2 FY2015 PERM Statistics Released
They can be found here.
PERM Received - 18,992 (27% increase on Q2 FY2014)
PERM Certified -- 20,189
PERM Denied ----- 1,333
PERM Withdrawn - 1,092
PERM Processed - 22,616
Backlog as March 31, 2015 - 61,574
Analyst Review - 59%
Audit Review - 31%
Appeal - 9%
Sponsorship/BE - 1%
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you Spec.
From this Perm data, it appear that the Visa Number race will be between India and China from now on, ROWs accounting for less than 30%
The 27% increase appear to be normal since Q2 2014 was very low. I was expecting Perm applications to increase way more than that as Economy is recovering well, but looks like this still ain't happening
I am posting here but moderators, feel free to move it, First off, I would like to appreciate all the time and efforts from the senior members of the forum for keeping tab with all the stats and calculations to give us folks a ray of hope. I have been a silent follower of the forum for quite a while now. Thank you qesehmk, spec, imdeng and others for this exceptionally informative forum.
I am in a peculiar situation and calling for opinions from the experts. I filed for my second EAD/AP renewal in Jan 2015, received by TSC on 01/12 and my application was approved on 03/16. However, it has been sitting on the approved status ever since and there is no CPO update or card in the mail yet and it's been a month since approval. I received the approval notice on 03/26. Has anyone ever experienced this kind of a scenario? USCIS keeps finding newer ways to surprise us. Well anyway, I raised an e-request last week (and was politely asked to not expect a reply from USCIS before 04/29 :-)) and I'm also in the process of reaching out to the senator. My EAD is due to expire in the first week of May and I'm starting to lose hope that I would receive the new card before the old one dies. Do you guys know if there is anything more I can do from my end to address the problem?
lifescrewsevery1
Welcome to forum Life! First - you are good to go. Don't worry a bit. The card will come in time. Just follow up with USCIS ... call them up etc. No need for senator intervention. Did you ask USCIS (on phone call) what's the status -- if they sent it to the right address etc?Originally Posted by lifescrewsevery1
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
You have to be a bit careful just looking at the % values.
The 2.9k CTS approvals (almost all for India) at the end of March have a distorting effect on the figures.
If they are removed, the % split has remained fairly constant.
The same may well be true of Q3 eventually, since there have been another 2.1k CTS approvals to date.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you Q. I tried calling USCIS early this week but couldn't get through to L2 officer and the L1 was not interested in raising a service request because it hasn't been 1 month since approval (was 2 days short). I called again today and was able to go through to L2 using Address Verification as the excuse. I am in line and scheduled a call back with them. Hopefully, should receive a call soon. I did send the request for senator intervention in snailmail. I hope it doesn't hurt.
EAD AP is your thing (i.e. you are the petitioner). So you following up with USCIS absolutely should never hurt. Good luck!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thank you Q. I did call USCIS today AM and scheduled for a call back. I just received a call from the L2 officer and she confirmed that the card has not been produced yet (whoever can guess why?) but asked me to expect an update by 04/22/2015, so hoping for the best. I did send in the request for senator intervention via snailmail and hope it's not going to hurt even if they intervene.
Q, Spec and other gurus,
Is there a way to find how much of these PERM approvals belong to EB2 or EB3? Historically, is there some kind of ratio for EB2:EB3?
gcpursuit,
Not directly from the PERM.
There is some analysis of the PWD that suggests it is up around at least 70:30 EB2:EB3 (or even higher). See Here.
The last usable data was from FY2013 - since then, the minimum months experience required field has not been populated correctly.
A more rough and ready calculation might be to use the figures from the PERM Statistics just released.
That shows that:
An Advanced Degree (PhD, Masters) is the minimum requirement for 52% of Certifications.
A Bachelors is the minimum requirement for 41% of Certifications.
Other (JD, MD etc) is the minimum requirement for 4% of Certifications.
The rest have a minimum requirement less than a Bachelor's.
If you say that half the Bachelor's cases also require at least 5 years experience (conservative compared to the PWD data) then EB2 could be as high as 52+20+4 = 76%
A relatively high figure might be consistent with the rapid progress for EB3 and the relatively low number of new cases seen in later years.
Typically, I use 65-70% for China, India and ROW and different (I can't remember off hand what they are) splits for Mexico and Philippines which is biased a little more towards EB3.
Also, bear in mind that PERM does not capture all cases. NIW and Schedule A do not require a PERM certification.
No simple answer I'm afraid.
It's possible over time that ROW will move to a split less biased towards EB2, if EB3 remains fairly near Current. But really, there is not much advantage to applying under EB3 if the beneficiary is suitably qualified and the job requirements do require Education/Experience that qualifies for EB2.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - I think 70:30 EB2:EB3 split could be even worse now. I wouldnt be surprised if it is more like 80:20.
Now practically EB3 is a vanishing category. I think it would be a good idea for USCIS to rethink EB2 criteria. Otherwise why keep two separate categories if everybody is going to file in a supposedly tougher category?
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks Spec and Q.
80:20 was what I was guessing given EB3 retrogression. no numbers to back it up or anything. Makes the future of EB2I even more bleak.
From what I read long back, the minimum requirement for EB2 to be specified is still Master's degree whereas the alternative education can specify BS+5. Is that not correct? If it is, do they consider the alternative education field when they provide the education % in the PERM data?
gcpursuit,
If your asking does the 52% Advanced Degree % in the PERM statistics represent the sum of applicants with PhD, Masters and Bachelors +5 years progressive experience into a pseudo grouping called Advanced Degree, then I would say it does not. Advanced Degree usually means the attainment of a qualification beyond that of a graduate.
USCIS defines the requirements for EB2 as:
A primary requirement of Bachelors + 5 years progressive experience in the field satisfies the requirements to file under EB2 - it doesn't need to be the alternative requirement.The job you apply for must require an advanced degree and you must possess such a degree or its equivalent (a baccalaureate degree plus 5 years progressive work experience in the field).
The historic PWD data suggested that for FY2013, Advanced Degrees were 50% (vs 52% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet), Bachelors were 40% (vs 41% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet) and Other were 4% (vs 4% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet). The small rise since then seems quite possible. The PWD data suggested that more than half the cases (63%) requiring a Bachelors also required at least 5 years experience.
There is no way IMHO that only 52% of PERM certified qualify for an I-140 submission under EB2. Both the historic PWD data (which split Masters or Bachelors +5 out) and the numbers of EB2/EB3 approvals seen do not support that.
You may have a different opinion, or I have completely misunderstood the question.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
From what I have read long back ( it was too long ago.. so i am not sure if that's still true ), in the PERM application we were supposed to specify Masters as minimum requirement to qualify for EB2. If the PERM is being applied for a person who doesn't have masters, BS+5 should be specified as the alternative requirement but masters should still be the minimum requirement. I may be totally wrong in my understanding. Is that statement valid?
Well... we will all be soon downgrading to EB3I just as EB2C folks have been doing recently :-)
Thanks Spec and Q.
80:20 was what I was guessing given EB3 retrogression. no numbers to back it up or anything. Makes the future of EB2I even more bleak.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I'm in the following scenario. My PD is July 09 and yet to file I-485. My wife is in the 6th year of H-1B and her company chose not to file PERM. Her 6th year expires on Nov 10,2015.
I have no idea if my date will be current in July 15 to give enough time for wife's EAD approval to continue her work. I believe August is too risky for us to expect EAD in November 2015.
My plan is, if I'm not current in July 2015, I plan to apply wife's EAD using my approved I-140 with the start date of Nov 11,2015. My question is, if I apply EAD with approved I-140 in July, what happens when I apply I-485 in,say, August or September this year? Will there be 2 EAD applications pending for my wife? Will they be interlinked? Does anyone have idea about how it's gonna pan out?
Thanks,
jimmys,
You echoed the same situation I am in including the dates(almost) !!! . My PD is June 29,2009 and yet to file 485 ( missed it in 2012). My wife's H1b is expiring Nov 5th, 2015 ! These are my thoughts: The first concern that we have is there will be small break in employment with H4 EAD which I dont think can be avoided. I just want to make sure you understood that.
Also, I think its ok to have two EADs pending. I don't think they will be interlinked and that they are completely independent. You status will be determined by which one you ultimately choose to use.
Gurus here can correct me if I am wrong.
As gcpursuit mentioned having 2 EAD's is not an issue but more important thing is the gap in employment that you may have to plan for. COS to H4 and H4 EAD can be applied at the same time but there is no guarentee that both will happen at the same time. I believe (though there is no clarity) that they will start working on the EAD only after COS to H4 is complete and not in parallel. If that is the case then you can expect to have few months of break in employment. Better to prepare for the worse.
Moderator: I apologize if this is the wrong forum. If so, please move to the appropriate thread (I did not see any thread of J1)
I need some help urgently. I am on H1B (EB3 - I140 approved, PD Sep 2009; Applied for EB2 Dec 2013 - hoping for a decision soon ) and my wife is on H4. She got her residency and needs to start working 1st July, 2015. Her program did not provide her H1B sponsorship and needs to apply for J1. We have started the process. However, I heard from multiple lawyers that she has got higher chance of rejection of J1 visa since I have applied for H1 B and we already have a daughter born here. Also, I heard that she should do consular processing (and not change of status) since change of status take a long time. Is there any way to find the rejection rates of J1 visa and what is the best way to reduce the chance of J1 rejection? Thanks
Great man. Let's be in touch in this forum.
Coming back to the point, the way I understood is, you can apply for EAD with future date. I believed it's same with H-4 too. That is, starting from Nov 11. My plan was to apply COS to H-4 and EAD almost together with future date. Say for example, if you're on L-1 visa and apply for H-1B your H-1B starts only from Oct 1. Like the same way, the H-4 starts only at a future date, say, Nov 11,2015. Can't the EAD be filed/approved starting from Nov 11,2015.?
Can't this be done? Should I wait for her to come back on H-4 first?
Having a break and moving to H-4 before filing EAD is vanilla case.
The Q2 PERM Disclosure Data has been released. http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rmancedata.cfm
It has a lot, lot, more data in it than previous releases.
PS:- The PERM Figures on the forum have now been updated.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I don't consider this a serious attempt.
I did a "quick and dirty" analysis of the new PERM data for EB2:EB3 ratio, since it contains the information to do so. FWIW, this is what I came up with for Certified Cases in FY2015 Q1 & Q2 (but there might be a bit of a wide margin of error):
Country/Group -- EB2 --- EB3
CHINA ---------- 80% --- 20%
INDIA ---------- 84% --- 16%
MEXICO --------- 54% --- 46%
PHILIPPINES ---- 57% --- 43%
ROW ------------ 74% --- 26%
Overall -------- 80% --- 20%
Any errors would probably increase the EB2 %.
Make of it what you will and take it with a pinch of salt. I might revisit it another time.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Not a bad hunch Spec --- you must agree
Thanks for the effort!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Wow! A split of 80-20 is a very good sign for EB3I. Once that river starts flowing, it is likely to be a torrent.
Also - the density in EB3I post 07/07 might be pretty low - so it might even be possible that EB3I will zoom past EB2I in a couple years - until the EB2I to EB3I downgrades bring them to parity.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)
Posting Permissions
