EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jimmys]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

It doesn't mean people are going to start filing PERM to port the moment visa bulletin was released. It's about the people who have already done the PERM and waiting for the dates to cross their previous PD. For example, with an EB3I PD of 1 Oct ,2007(Meaning he never filed I-485), someone could have easily obtained EB2 PERM in the last few months. For him, when the dates move beyond 1 Oct,2007, he's gonna file for I-485. Like this there are many people who filed EB2(Previous PD EB3) PERM and waiting for their dates to be current so that they can file I-485 or they can ask USCIS to interfile their existing I-485 applications with their new PERM with old PD. Thus they increase the no of visa numbers consumed for EB2I.

[sportsfan33]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

As others have noted, people have clear labors well in advance. What we don't know in my knowledge is the number of outstanding labor applications at the USCIS broken down by the country and category. That's a massive big black hole which makes prediction almost impossible.

The way to project future demand has been to get the PERM data instead, estimate the categories (PERM does not indicate EB2/EB3), estimate the effect of porting, subtract "parallel" applications, etc. etc. All of the multiple PERM and other effects have been captured in a number called the "PERM multiplier", which was a little over 1 (1.05 if memory serves me right) for EB2I. This means for every approved PERM that shows up for India in a given year, you can expect something like 1.05 485 applications that will eventually show up in EB2I inventory.

I don't know how much of all this historical calculation is still accurate though. I haven't looked around lately.

[qesehmk]

In the interest of everybody ... here is a list of biggest GC sponsors in the US since 2010 and the (approximate) number of cases they filed.

MICROSOFT CORPORATION	10487
COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS US CORPORATION	3940
INTEL CORPORATION	2885
GOOGLE INC.	2049
CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.	1420
AMAZON CORPORATE LLC	1370
ORACLE AMERICA, INC.	1251
APPLE INC.	1177
QUALCOMM, INC.	1012
INFOSYS LTD.	927
DELOITTE CONSULTING LLP	854
BROADCOM CORPORATION	798
IBM CORPORATION	716
YAHOO! INC.	683
BLOOMBERG L.P.	656
BANK OF AMERICA	617
QUALCOMM TECHNOLOGIES INC.	607
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS	588
ERNST & YOUNG U.S. LLP	582
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED	577
VMWARE, INC.	566
KFORCE INC.	552
HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY	548
NVIDIA CORPORATION	530
MASTECH, INC., A MASTECH HOLDINGS, INC. COMPANY	521
FACEBOOK, INC.	497

[imdeng]

These are just the employers that count towards the annual cap I think. I know that University systems, especially those with large medical systems, are a big part of H1B numbers as well - but they don't count towards the cap.

In the interest of everybody ... here is a list of biggest GC sponsors in the US since 2010 and the (approximate) number of cases they filed.

[qesehmk]

Good observation imdeng. Thanks.

These are just the employers that count towards the annual cap I think. I know that University systems, especially those with large medical systems, are a big part of H1B numbers as well - but they don't count towards the cap.

[Spectator]

Ron Gotcher has been kind enough to reproduce the outcome in this thread http://www.immigration-information.c...rmation.17629/ on his forum.

This is from the latest liaison meeting with the Visa Office (2/10/2015)

EB-2 India.

The big news in the March 2015 Visa Bulletin is the advancement of the EB-2 India cut-off date by 16 months—from September 1, 2005 to January 1, 2007. Consistent with Charlie’s projections last month, EB-2 India has advanced much earlier than in prior years and more dramatically than the 4 to 6 month minimum discussed in last month’s report.

The State Department is pursuing this strategy in an effort to help ensure the adjudication of pending EB-2 India adjustment of status applications before time sensitive materials expire, and to allow sufficient time for applications to be processed should resources issues arise toward the end of the fiscal year. Charlie anticipates that EB-2 India will advance further in April, though probably not as significantly as that which we saw for March. Charlie anticipates that the EB-2 India cut-off date will likely continue to advance through this fiscal year, but at a steadier rate and without a huge leap forward near the end of the fiscal year as it has in the past. As a result of the EB-2 movement, Charlie anticipates an increase in EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades and hence, more adjustment of status filings. If these numbers are significant, the advancement of EB-2 India may slow, or require a correction.
EB-2 India remains a category to watch closely as the fiscal year progresses.

EB-2 and EB-3 China.

In March, EB-2 China will advance more than five months from March 15, 2010 to September 1, 2010. This is the biggest advancement for EB-2 China in some time. For the past two years, EB-2 China had been advancing at a pace of roughly one month.

The advancement of EB-2 China is attributable in part to light demand in the China family categories, along with an effort to provide sufficient time for new filings to be processed to conclusion this fiscal year. This is likely to continue for at least a little while longer. Note, however, that the EB-3 China cut-off date continues to be more than 13 months ahead of EB-2 China, resulting in EB-3 downgrades. Charlie expects that demand for EB-3 China will continue to grow as a result of the downgrades, which may result in another significant advancement for EB-2 China in April, and a priority date hold or retrogression for EB-3 China at some point in the future. The timing of a hold or correction remains uncertain, but it could happen within the next couple of months if the demand witnessed in January continues or increases. A combination of corrective action in the China EB-3 cut-off, and forward movement for EB-2 would end the downgrade trend. That could increase EB-2 demand and impact that cut-off.

As mentioned above, demand for the China family-based categories is currently low. As a result, some China family-based numbers are dropping into the China employment-based categories. A change in this trend would impact future China EB movements.


Ron

James Ronald Gotcher
Global Immigration Partners
22775 Malibu Hills Road, Suite 150
Calabasas Hills, CA 91301
Tel: 818-914-6482
Fax: 818-475-3450

Inquiries@GotcherLaw.com

[imdeng]

I imagine this is alluding to the 1 year expiration of the Medical RFE responses. If that is so then it is a good sign that USCIS is aware of the issue and is proactively deadline with it. Kanmani has already done three medicals and she will not be happy if CO makes her do the fourth. Fear the wrath of Kanmani CO and do the right thing :-)

They would need to reach 01NOV2009 by June I think to catch almost all of the RFE responses submitted last year. My RFE response was received almost end of July - but I was one of the later RFEs I believe.

The State Department is pursuing this strategy in an effort to help ensure the adjudication of pending EB-2 India adjustment of status applications before time sensitive materials expire

[imdeng]

This is a bit of a personal update. There was a discussion some time back in this thread about doing AC21 employer change with a lower salary. I had asked for opinions since it could have been relevant for me. Kanmani had, as usual, a very thoughtful and helpful reply to my query. I just wanted to update folks that I have managed to escape the scenario. I managed to find a position in my field with a nice bump up in salary :-)

I will be moving back Ann Arbor, MI - back to my alma mater - after the coming summer. Anyone here close by?

[YTeleven]

I imagine this is alluding to the 1 year expiration of the Medical RFE responses. If that is so then it is a good sign that USCIS is aware of the issue and is proactively deadline with it. Kanmani has already done three medicals and she will not be happy if CO makes her do the fourth. Fear the wrath of Kanmani CO and do the right thing :-)

They would need to reach 01NOV2009 by June I think to catch almost all of the RFE responses submitted last year. My RFE response was received almost end of July - but I was one of the later RFEs I believe.

If CO wants to reach till 01NOV2009 for EB2-I, he needs to be hurry and do it in next 2 VBs.
EB2-ROW inventory is shooting up fast, it raised 20% in FY15-Q1 from 15K to 18K which is NOT a good sign for EB2-I. It will be tough to move to this far if he waits for year end spillover.
One reason for the increase in EB2-ROW inventory could be the processing delays:
The total I-485s approved in FY15-Q1 was just 21,368 which is just 17% of yearly quota(assuming an average of 125K as yearly AOS approvals).
Pending I-140s got increased 20% from 30k to 36k.
Here is the latest all forms data:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y2015_qtr1.pdf

[YTeleven]

For those who are waiting eagerly for H4EAD rule:

Here is the Federal Register Citation #:80 FR 11111 for H4EAD rule RIN: 1615-AB92.
Where 80 is the Vol. number and 11111 is the page number.
The last page number of the Federal Register published so far till today is : 7966
It might take another 2 more weeks to reach the page number : 11111

[ris123]

Hello. I really appreciate if anyone can help me with my concern. If I want to jump from company A to company B using AC21, can company A revoke my I-140 after I join company B, and if they do in that case is my I-485 still remains valid with the company B? I have just past my 180 days since i-485 filing.

[gcq]

Hello. I really appreciate if anyone can help me with my concern. If I want to jump from company A to company B using AC21, can company A revoke my I-140 after I join company B, and if they do in that case is my I-485 still remains valid with the company B? I have just past my 180 days since i-485 filing.

If company A revokes your I-140 you are still safe. Nothing to worry !

[ris123]

If company A revokes your I-140 you are still safe. Nothing to worry !

Thanks Qcq. So this means that I will still be able to maintain my original priority date and I should not fear for any NOID from USCIS?

[gcq]

Thanks Qcq. So this means that I will still be able to maintain my original priority date and I should not fear for any NOID from USCIS?

Unless your I-140 is revoked by USCIS for fraud or misrepresentation, you are absolutely safe. As per procedure, they are supposed to issue only an RFE, not a NOID. Though not required by law, filing AC21 notification to USCIS will save you from a potential NOID/RFE. Once they have the AC21 documents on file, there is no reason for them to issue an RFE or NOID.

[saagar_is_cool]

If company A revokes your I-140 you are still safe. Nothing to worry !

Not entirely true. If company revokes 140, unless it has been 180 days since 485 was filed, you are not safe. Bottom line is 180 days from 485 filing for invoking AC21.

[gcq]

Not entirely true. If company revokes 140, unless it has been 180 days since 485 was filed, you are not safe. Bottom line is 180 days from 485 filing for invoking AC21.

OP has crossed 180 days. That is why I didn't specifically mention that.

[skpanda]

For those who are waiting eagerly for H4EAD rule:

Here is the Federal Register Citation #:80 FR 11111 for H4EAD rule RIN: 1615-AB92.
Where 80 is the Vol. number and 11111 is the page number.
The last page number of the Federal Register published so far till today is : 7966
It might take another 2 more weeks to reach the page number : 11111

I tried to go to https://www.federalregister.gov/citation/80-FR-11111 and could not find the info.

Also pages such as 8000 have a comment period ending in march 2015. How does it work? Arent they going to come to 11111 unless the comment period for 8000 ends in march?

Any idea??

[YTeleven]

I tried to go to https://www.federalregister.gov/citation/80-FR-11111 and could not find the info.

Also pages such as 8000 have a comment period ending in march 2015. How does it work? Arent they going to come to 11111 unless the comment period for 8000 ends in march?

Any idea??

The 80 FR 11111 is the FR page number where the H4EAD rule get published in future.
This citation number is mentioned in this URL:
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01502-1615-004
Go to this URL and check the "Rulemaking" check box and you will see the FR citation number for H4 EAD rule.
Till yesterday the latest page published in the FR was 8237. It may take another 2 to 3 weeks of time to get to the page number 11111 based on current publication rate unless they change the page number and publish early.

Also, you will see from the above URL that OMB has approved the changes to the EAD form to include H4 people with conditions and USCIS can use the new forms from the H4 EAD effective date in future.

This is good news for H4 community but it looks like still there is a wait of 2 to 3 more weeks to get it published in FR as FINAL or INTERIM FINAL rule.

[skpanda]

The 80 FR 11111 is the FR page number where the H4EAD rule get published in future.
This citation number is mentioned in this URL:
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01502-1615-004
Go to this URL and check the "Rulemaking" check box and you will see the FR citation number for H4 EAD rule.
Till yesterday the latest page published in the FR was 8237. It may take another 2 to 3 weeks of time to get to the page number 11111 based on current publication rate unless they change the page number and publish early.

Also, you will see from the above URL that OMB has approved the changes to the EAD form to include H4 people with conditions and USCIS can use the new forms from the H4 EAD effective date in future.

This is good news for H4 community but it looks like still there is a wait of 2 to 3 more weeks to get it published in FR as FINAL or INTERIM FINAL rule.

Thanks for the info... is there a link where i can find the updated EAD form & Instruction form? Also, lets say on 15th March the rule is published... usually when does the effective date take place? 30 days?

[YTeleven]

Thanks for the info... is there a link where i can find the updated EAD form & Instruction form? Also, lets say on 15th March the rule is published... usually when does the effective date take place? 30 days?

All the related info you can find from that link.
Check 'All' check box option to elaborate it or see view supporting documents.

[skpanda]

All the related info you can find from that link.
Check 'All' check box option to elaborate it or see view supporting documents.

thanks.. got it...

[aquatican]

Can he make forward movement while remaining within the 7% numerical limit?
From all previous information released he cannot utilize spillover before Q4.

I thnk it's rather ironic that I am getting increasingly worried by this 'forward movement'.
If we advance the dates far ahead now then chances of crossing May 09 to Summer 09 could be affected negatively.

If CO wants to reach till 01NOV2009 for EB2-I, he needs to be hurry and do it in next 2 VBs.
EB2-ROW inventory is shooting up fast, it raised 20% in FY15-Q1 from 15K to 18K which is NOT a good sign for EB2-I. It will be tough to move to this far if he waits for year end spillover.
One reason for the increase in EB2-ROW inventory could be the processing delays:
The total I-485s approved in FY15-Q1 was just 21,368 which is just 17% of yearly quota(assuming an average of 125K as yearly AOS approvals).
Pending I-140s got increased 20% from 30k to 36k.
Here is the latest all forms data:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y2015_qtr1.pdf

[vizcard]

This is a bit of a personal update. There was a discussion some time back in this thread about doing AC21 employer change with a lower salary. I had asked for opinions since it could have been relevant for me. Kanmani had, as usual, a very thoughtful and helpful reply to my query. I just wanted to update folks that I have managed to escape the scenario. I managed to find a position in my field with a nice bump up in salary :-)

I will be moving back Ann Arbor, MI - back to my alma mater - after the coming summer. Anyone here close by?

i feel bad u have to go back to that dump

[vizcard]

In the interest of everybody ... here is a list of biggest GC sponsors in the US since 2010 and the (approximate) number of cases they filed.

MICROSOFT CORPORATION	10487
COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS US CORPORATION	3940
INTEL CORPORATION	2885
GOOGLE INC.	2049
CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.	1420
AMAZON CORPORATE LLC	1370
ORACLE AMERICA, INC.	1251
APPLE INC.	1177
QUALCOMM, INC.	1012
INFOSYS LTD.	927
DELOITTE CONSULTING LLP	854
BROADCOM CORPORATION	798
IBM CORPORATION	716
YAHOO! INC.	683
BLOOMBERG L.P.	656
BANK OF AMERICA	617
QUALCOMM TECHNOLOGIES INC.	607
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS	588
ERNST & YOUNG U.S. LLP	582
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED	577
VMWARE, INC.	566
KFORCE INC.	552
HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY	548
NVIDIA CORPORATION	530
MASTECH, INC., A MASTECH HOLDINGS, INC. COMPANY	521
FACEBOOK, INC.	497

My former employer made the list ... of course they filed way before 2010 for me

[qesehmk]

Anybody noticed how USCIS dashboard is acting funny. Or is it just me?

Since when that site stopped working?