EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[aquatican]

The next bulletin for March 2015 should be out by tomorrow.
I hope they do not move it again by 6 months. The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.
Keeping fingers crossed.

looks like last year around march uscis started issuing mass-rfe's for EB3I and EB2I. Will they start around that time to have the medicals etc done and completed valid medical reports be on file by july ? did they give like 60 days time to respond to rfe ?

Generally for the Medicals and EVL how much time does usics give to respond back ?

[Spectator]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f..._1_12_2015.pdf

[CleanSock]

EB2I at 1 JAN 07. That's a big jump!

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2015.html

The next bulletin for March 2015 should be out by tomorrow.
I hope they do not move it again by 6 months. The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.
Keeping fingers crossed.

[sstest]

The next bulletin for March 2015 should be out by tomorrow.
I hope they do not move it again by 6 months. The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.
Keeping fingers crossed.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2015.html

EB2I moves from 01SEP05 to 01JAN07
EB2C moves from 15MAR10 to 01SEP10

[CleanSock]

I can't believe the total number of EB1 I pending for the year 2014. Were there really that many applications? It is scary!

Spec/Q/Other gurus, what is your take on that?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f..._1_12_2015.pdf

[jimmys]

I can't believe the total number of EB1 I pending for the year 2014. Were there really that many applications? It is scary!

Spec/Q/Other gurus, what is your take on that?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f..._1_12_2015.pdf

To me, it shows slow processing of I-485 applications. I'm not sure if it's a scary thing. Waiting for others' input.

[jimmys]

The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.

Why so? Any thoughts on it?

[mechanical13]

Why so? Any thoughts on it?

Two main reasons:

1) If the dates move slowly, there is more opportunity for porters to file and get processed. Porting has already been cited to be the primary reason why dates didn't move as much as time.

2)USCIS will have a much better handle on actual immigrant VISA consumption, so there a smaller chance that they will move dates more drastically towards the end of the year

These are just a few reasons I can think of. Others may have other ideas.

[YTeleven]

I've NO changes to my earlier predictions. All the new data pointers are inline with the earlier predictions.
EB3-I predictions:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4074#post54074
EB2-I predictions:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3828#post53828
EB-India total:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4877#post54877

[krishn]

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1

YTeleven,

so you think there will be 8.5k visas for eb3I in FY2015 , i.e a fallacross/spillover of 5500 visas?

thanks

[aquatican]

imho, By advancing the COD so earlier we will see a lot of porting.
This will eat up the allocation of this fiscal easily. Hence in the last quarter if we get really less spillover ( as all indicators by experts) are promising we will see minimal advancement from last years cutoff of May 2009.

Now everything depends on how much EB1 will use up quota and how much fall across EB2ROW will give ( which depends on PERM processing speeds)
If any of these variables becomes detrimental we will have extremely pessimistic results.

YTeleven,

so you think there will be 8.5k visas for eb3I in FY2015 , i.e a fallacross/spillover of 5500 visas?

thanks

[PD2008AUG25]

imho, By advancing the COD so earlier we will see a lot of porting.
This will eat up the allocation of this fiscal easily. Hence in the last quarter if we get really less spillover ( as all indicators by experts) are promising we will see minimal advancement from last years cutoff of May 2009.

Now everything depends on how much EB1 will use up quota and how much fall across EB2ROW will give ( which depends on PERM processing speeds)
If any of these variables becomes detrimental we will have extremely pessimistic results.

I think CO may be changing strategy in light of executive action memo.

The directive from USCIS director is to work with Department of State to modernize the visa bulletin systems, provide green cards to the eligible individuals when there is demand for such individuals, review the current policy and make changes as needed to help the approved employment based petitions remain valid, when they change jobs.

The bold part in above text probably means he can no longer do his vigilante justice by trying to reduce porting.

[kkruna]

"provide green cards to the eligible individuals when there is demand for such individuals"

Should this actually mean that they make the date current so long as they have visa numbers available? Now this would result in a mess when applied to FB category but this is an opinion many have...

[qesehmk]

"provide green cards to the eligible individuals when there is demand for such individuals"

Should this actually mean that they make the date current so long as they have visa numbers available? Now this would result in a mess when applied to FB category but this is an opinion many have...

I think an "Eligible" individual is an individual with "Current" date among other things.

[bluelabel]

I think this movement may be because of the change in medical policy. Moving slowly will provide every I-485 application to be processed and approved in less than 365 days so that applicants do not have to re-do medicals. I really doubt if the next inventory building will be as aggressive as it was in 2011-12.

[mechanical13]

I think this movement may be because of the change in medical policy. Moving slowly will provide every I-485 application to be processed and approved in less than 365 days so that applicants do not have to re-do medicals. I really doubt if the next inventory building will be as aggressive as it was in 2011-12.

I think you are giving USCIS too much credit. They really don't care and the process is far more messed up than one could fathom:

1) They would follow FIFO and not randomly approve GCs when dates become current
2) They would send medical RFEs to only those who are close to becoming current. Not a random shotgun spray that covers years and years.
3) They wouldn't be harassing PhDs and Researchers with RFEs, while approving E1C 'international manager' cases left and right.

...the list is very long.

[gten20]

I think you are giving USCIS too much credit. They really don't care and the process if far more messed up than one could phantom:
....

I think you meant fathom.
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us...english/fathom

Sorry.. m a little testy today and I don't know why.

[mechanical13]

I think you meant fathom.
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us...english/fathom

Sorry.. m a little testy today and I don't know why.

Ha ha yes...thanks for pointing this out. Very erudite of you!

[Jagan01]

imho, By advancing the COD so earlier we will see a lot of porting.
This will eat up the allocation of this fiscal easily. Hence in the last quarter if we get really less spillover ( as all indicators by experts) are promising we will see minimal advancement from last years cutoff of May 2009.

Now everything depends on how much EB1 will use up quota and how much fall across EB2ROW will give ( which depends on PERM processing speeds)
If any of these variables becomes detrimental we will have extremely pessimistic results.

You need to consider the number of chances people with those PDs have received.

PDs up until Aug 2007 have been current in 2007, 2011, 2013, 2014. Most of them have already ported and have pending I-485s. Very few people before this date will port.
PDs up until Jun 2008 have been current in 2011, 2013, 2014. I would say majority have already ported.
PDs up until May 2009 have been current in 2011 and 2014. I would expect some porting from people in this range.
PDs after May 2009. Have been current only ONCE in 2011. Major porting from these candidates.

According to me you should not be worried about porters before Jun 2008. But if date moves beyond Jun 08 pretty quickly then it is something to worry about.

[aquatican]

That's probably important to factor in.

While i cannot begin to fathom the reasons why CO does this different every year, it will be interesting to see the fallout of this strategy when the end of Fiscal year comes around and when we expect spillover and fall across.
I always thought he cannot apply spillover and fall across until July, Aug and September.
From his statement at AILA/Bulletin he mentioned that we will have some progress in COD till the end though 'not as much' as last year.

You need to consider the number of chances people with those PDs have received.

PDs up until Aug 2007 have been current in 2007, 2011, 2013, 2014. Most of them have already ported and have pending I-485s. Very few people before this date will port.
PDs up until Jun 2008 have been current in 2011, 2013, 2014. I would say majority have already ported.
PDs up until May 2009 have been current in 2011 and 2014. I would expect some porting from people in this range.
PDs after May 2009. Have been current only ONCE in 2011. Major porting from these candidates.

According to me you should not be worried about porters before Jun 2008. But if date moves beyond Jun 08 pretty quickly then it is something to worry about.

[Jagan01]

That's probably important to factor in.

While i cannot begin to fathom the reasons why CO does this different every year, it will be interesting to see the fallout of this strategy when the end of Fiscal year comes around and when we expect spillover and fall across.
I always thought he cannot apply spillover and fall across until July, Aug and September.
From his statement at AILA/Bulletin he mentioned that we will have some progress in COD till the end though 'not as much' as last year.

He may not need to apply spillover and fall across until third quarter. He might just end up using 3k annual quota and that is till sufficient for movement into summer of 2008.

HE mentioned 'not as much' as last year. Depends how you see it. According to me, last years movement was Jun 08 (FY 2013 end) to May 09 (FY 2014 end). 11 months effective progress. It may be less than that and might be 7 months and enough to cover Dec 2009.

[sportsfan33]

To me, it looks pretty straightforward. CO is simply advancing the date to consume the annual quota for EB2I. For the first 6 months, he should be giving out 1400 visas, and the date is advanced to simply fulfill that number.

Remember that in FY 2014, CO spent the entire EB2I quota in the first 2 months itself. There were simply no more visas to be given out; hence the date stayed stuck.

Unless someone can prove, I don't think CO is applying any form of quarterly spillover yet. So there is just nothing to worry about.

Finally, as jagan has pointed out, the porting density until the beginning of 2008 should have been reduced quite substantially. The inventory shows quite a low number for the years 2005 and 2006. If the data gets into 2008, that's the time to start worrying. I hope it's not going to happen and the big jump will simply happen in 1 step for some time in 2010.

[srimurthy]

Should not we also consider that for the last section of PDs after May 2009, they would be reaching eligilibility for EB2 - 5 + Years of experience just arount this time (if not all but most) and it would take time for them to get a new labor approved and have that number on the lower end until end of 2016.
Just my thoughts.... on considering that there should not be much porting numbers added for 2009 to 2011 until a couple of years from now!!!

You need to consider the number of chances people with those PDs have received.

PDs up until Aug 2007 have been current in 2007, 2011, 2013, 2014. Most of them have already ported and have pending I-485s. Very few people before this date will port.
PDs up until Jun 2008 have been current in 2011, 2013, 2014. I would say majority have already ported.
PDs up until May 2009 have been current in 2011 and 2014. I would expect some porting from people in this range.
PDs after May 2009. Have been current only ONCE in 2011. Major porting from these candidates.

According to me you should not be worried about porters before Jun 2008. But if date moves beyond Jun 08 pretty quickly then it is something to worry about.

[tiredtotrack]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

[Jagan01]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

You answered your question. "unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement". PERM can be filed anytime and people do that in advance.