EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[gkjppp]

I replied to RFE in OCT 2012 and it says they will begin working on my case .

Got it, its a glitch. they would have worked on your case long back. mass update... hahaha....

[kumar777]

I got the same email saying fee is received and now the status is "Accepted. my pd date is 12/15/2009.

[vishnu]

given the text in these messages is the same as what people received back in 2012, looks like a system glitch (i saw more of these messages on trackitt)

that being said, my attorney designated my application as CP (not AoS), PD Sep 2010, so never filed 485. i did receive NVC notice in September to pay the relevant fees - that comes from the DoS, so not a system glitch there

taking both of these items together, perhaps there is a plan to move dates, particular with regards to one of the action points "to utilize all available visas"

anyway lets see what dates do over the next 3 months

[vishnu]

Ok def just a system glitch
Ppl who've received greencard already have also been getting messages

[gcq]

I got an LUD on my I-485 with the status same as received your application in August 2007. Status not changed. looks like a mass update

[PD2008AUG25]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

[gten20]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

This is so wrong... I hired a fresher out of college in 2011 and he will get his GC before me. He still wont have enough experience on the day he gets his GC than I had when I hired him.

[YTeleven]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

It is interesting to watch EB2-C on how aggressively they downgrade to EB3-C in next 3 quarters. Everybody thinks EB3-C will become current by the end of FY15 but they will never become current as there will be continuous downgrades from EB2-C which drags the EB3-C from becoming current. EB2-I need to learn from EB2-C downgrade experiences for next one year and get ready for FY17 when their turn comes to downgrades unless Congress makes legislation for increasing visas or recapturing visas.

[migo79]

that's very well said

[sstest]

Pending CP demand - link from Jan VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...ngListItem.pdf

[mk2007]

Hi YTeleven,
do you think the predictions you made in Sept. 2014 still hold true or there is any changes on the positive side, considering the new data points available now?
Gurus on this forum please let us know your views.

Thanks,
Madhuri

In few hours from now we will be in FY15, this will be my last post in FY14.
I've a very positive prediction for EB3-India folks who are waiting for more than 10 years in the GC Q.
Back in May'14 I was predicting that EB3-India will have bright future ahead in this post: here

After a thorough data analysis I could say that in FY16 we will see a complete wipe out of EB3-I I485 inventory as shown in this graph:EB3-I I485 inventory trends
Here I'm comparing the same graph with current EB3-ROW inventory trend:EB3-I I485 inventory trends comparing with EB3-ROW inventory trend

After seeing these graphs you might question why would we see 20k spillover to EB3-I in FY16. This is what I'm getting from all the available data pointers.
After FY15 there will not be any demand for EB3 to consume its yearly 40k visas and that gives a massive horizontal spillover to EB3-India.
So this means we will have inventory buildup for EB3-I also in FY16.

Already, this post predicts that there is a possibility for EB2-I inventory building in FY16.

[YTeleven]

This is what we predicted back in April'14 that EB2-I will get at least 21,000 visas :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2317#post52317
and this is what the actual allocation of visas for EB2-I in FY14: 23,528 Visas
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf
our predictions were 90% accurate.

I've projections for FY2015...will disclose soon.

[YTeleven]

Hi YTeleven,
do you think the predictions you made in Sept. 2014 still hold true or there is any changes on the positive side, considering the new data points available now?
Gurus on this forum please let us know your views.

Thanks,
Madhuri

Yes. Those predictions still hold good. In fact the recent I-485 data was inline to those predictions.

[bittertruth]

YTeleven, Thanks for posting EB2I forecast. Does this prediction take into account the increase in EB1 filings?

[YTeleven]

Pending CP demand - link from Jan VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...ngListItem.pdf

I was expecting a huge reduction in demand for EB3-P visas in this NVC waitlist data for FY2014. But I see a moderate reduction of around 5k applications.
Probably the EB3-P discussion in this link : http://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsem...t-due-process/ gives some insight on why the EB3-P demand will not reduce.

On the whole, comparing to last four years first time I'm seeing the cracking in NVC waitlist data and it got reduced to 18.5% in FY2014 in spite of huge EB5 demand: NVC_Waitlist_Data_Reduction_from_FY2011_to_FY2014

[arnab222]

YT any quick insights on where the PD might land in FY2015 based on your insights ?

[YTeleven]

This is what we predicted back in April'14 that EB2-I will get at least 21,000 visas :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2317#post52317
and this is what the actual allocation of visas for EB2-I in FY14: 23,528 Visas
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf
our predictions were 90% accurate.

I've projections for FY2015...will disclose soon.

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1

[YTeleven]

YT any quick insights on where the PD might land in FY2015 based on your insights ?

As I said earlier in this post the I-485 inventory levels for EB2-India will drop below 8k by 30Sep2015 and the PD movements will be around Dec 2009.

[amulchandra]

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1

Hi YT,

Thank you very much for sharing your projection.
Sorry for a dumb question but does this mean Eb3 I might receive around 6000 SO from Eb3 Row?

Regards
Amul

[YTeleven]

Hi YT,

Thank you very much for sharing your projection.
Sorry for a dumb question but does this mean Eb3 I might receive around 6000 SO from Eb3 Row?

Regards
Amul

Yes. That's true. I'm expecting around 5k of horizontal spillover from EB3-ROW in FY15.

[gcvijay]

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1

Thanks for the projection. So you think my PD July 2nd 2009 EB2I will get current around July 2015? If yes do I need to count on GC or EAD given the processing time for 485 being longer for FY2014.

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[cancer24]

Header updated.

I am seeing new forecast on whereismygc.com and it does not look good but I need to take it with a grain of salt. All I know that Q doesn't provide any pessimistic or optimistic estimate but rather gives "common sense/realistic" one.

[qesehmk]

I am seeing new forecast on whereismygc.com and it does not look good but I need to take it with a grain of salt. All I know that Q doesn't provide any pessimistic or optimistic estimate but rather gives "common sense/realistic" one.

Thanks for your words cancer. WhereismyGC's forecast is not quite different than what Spec has been saying. I haven't quite followed YT's predictions but would be curious to hear his take on 2015.

As far as I am concerned - 2014 shows a picture of high usage coupled of high accumulation. It's a double whammy in 2015 - because in 2015 quite likely the demand may stay the same and then there will be a significant backlog that USCIS has to deal with.

Another thing I would be interested in hearing from others is their take on EB-I portings.

Although the usage for 2014 was 23.5K for EB2I - the inventory of EB2I went down only by ~12K. So the remaining 11.5K visas must go towards portings. But then if you look at EB3I inventory reduction - it only looks like 5K.

A) somebody needs to solve this
B) if this doesn't get solved - I think an immigrant group must raise this with Dept of State and ask an explanation because at a time when thousands are waiting in line - 6.5K visas is a big deal to not have an explanation for.

[YTeleven]

Thanks for your words cancer. WhereismyGC's forecast is not quite different than what Spec has been saying. I haven't quite followed YT's predictions but would be curious to hear his take on 2015.

As far as I am concerned - 2014 shows a picture of high usage coupled of high accumulation. It's a double whammy in 2015 - because in 2015 quite likely the demand may stay the same and then there will be a significant backlog that USCIS has to deal with.

Another thing I would be interested in hearing from others is their take on EB-I portings.

Although the usage for 2014 was 23.5K for EB2I - the inventory of EB2I went down only by ~12K. So the remaining 11.5K visas must go towards portings. But then if you look at EB3I inventory reduction - it only looks like 5K.

A) somebody needs to solve this
B) if this doesn't get solved - I think an immigrant group must raise this with Dept of State and ask an explanation because at a time when thousands are waiting in line - 6.5K visas is a big deal to not have an explanation for.

Q,
Your concern is valid. I see there is 3.5 K reduction in NVC data this time for EB2-I. : Reduction in NVC Waiting List Data for EB2 from FY2011 to FY2014
Remaining unaccounted numbers may be due to the portings of EB3-I whose PDs between 2007 and 2009 and they may not reflect in inventory accurately.
This is the reason why I often say there will not be any demand when we clear all of the EB3-I inventory in FY16.