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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan33 View Post
    Let us recap how EB2I escaped the last 4 years:

    That was followed by Ted Cruz doing us an indirect favor by shutting down the government and affecting the PERMs in a grand fashion.
    I disagree with this statement. Ted Cruz indirectly did us a great disfavor, not a favor. If he did not shutdown the Government, then there would have been no new budget deal and sequestration would have been in effect. PERMs would have further slowed down to a trickle (compared to 2013) and more spillover would have accrued to EB2I in 2014. We would have been looking at atleast Jan 2010 EB2I by now.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    Thanks I hope we don't have to do it again. It just moved from Broadway in NYC to SoHo NYC.
    Broadway is a loooonnnng road so "Broadway in NYC" is not saying much .. unless of course you meant the Theater district. Regardless, i'm almost certain there's no need for a new PERM.

  3. #78
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    sportsfan,

    Excellent post.

    Some comments (not a lot, because you were so comprehensive).

    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan33 View Post
    Over the last 2 years, pure spillover was almost 34K. 20K of that came from FB and more than 10K came because of PERM slowdowns.
    6k of that SO was over and above what pure spillover would have allowed (2k in FY2012 and 4k in FY2013). It resulted from EB2-I effectively using EB3 quota and the overuse of EB as a whole in FY2013.

    In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked.
    It would not just be EB1C-I.

    There are no sub allocations within EB1, so all of EB1-I would retrogress.

    In addition, since they are also using numbers above 7%, EB1-C would also have to retrogress.

    It's interesting that CO made a comment about EB4, since he never usually mentions it.

    If use in EB4 is increasing (and finally has to retrogress), the current demand pattern would virtually guarantee retrogression (admittedly very late in the FY) of EB1-IC in the absence of FB visas. The demand last year appears to have been well in excess of the 40k normally available. EB1 had 43k available last year (plus EB4/EB5 spare visas) - maybe 46-47k in total, so retrogression was never likely. EB5 spare visas have already disappeared and a loss of the EB4 contribution to EB1 could be bad news for them. 40k may no longer be sufficient.

    It's interesting that there have been so many EB1C approvals at the beginning of the year. It almost suggests they were held back so as not to count against the FY2014 numbers (takes off tin foil hat).


    Approvals at the beginning of the year have been slower than normal for all Categories (not just EB2-I), other than EB1. I wonder why USCIS are being so lethargic. The Cut Off Dates in effect should be producing far more approvals.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  4. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Broadway is a loooonnnng road so "Broadway in NYC" is not saying much .. unless of course you meant the Theater district. Regardless, i'm almost certain there's no need for a new PERM.
    yes vizcard thanks so much. it was on 7th Avenue. Soho and 7th should be same MSA! In fact when I researched the NYC MSA area is pretty big. I think I am going crazy. The office changed maybe 9 months back and here I am getting up one fine day and thinking does he need a new PERM and if he does we are screwed. Some days I get nightmare that I missed filing my EAD on time...such is life while waiting for a greencard!

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    yes vizcard thanks so much. it was on 7th Avenue. Soho and 7th should be same MSA! In fact when I researched the NYC MSA area is pretty big. I think I am going crazy. The office changed maybe 9 months back and here I am getting up one fine day and thinking does he need a new PERM and if he does we are screwed. Some days I get nightmare that I missed filing my EAD on time...such is life while waiting for a greencard!
    My rule was "when in doubt, email the lawyers". Let them earn their $1000 / hr fee. I used to contact them so much that the paralegal assigned to my case used to talk about vacations we took

  6. #81
    Viz,

    This is a simple question which would cost her only $150 for a single consultation with Murthy

    anu, you are good at this point of time, companies are allowed to shift premises within the same metropolitan area without affecting the immigration processes.

  7. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    My rule was "when in doubt, email the lawyers". Let them earn their $1000 / hr fee. I used to contact them so much that the paralegal assigned to my case used to talk about vacations we took
    Agree with the thumb rule Viz mentioned. It has been the situation for me from past 3 months if I had to consult lawyers outside. But last night the law firm made it official for me that they need to restart my PERM as the new office location is in the same state 25 miles away from the existing office but different MSA. As employer and the law firm employer chooses would have control over PERM, you cannot argue much on the route they want to take in these situations. To my situation, I had to accept the situation and move forward. My 2 cents are do not loose your sleep on this till the time the law firm confirms anything.

  8. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    Agree with the thumb rule Viz mentioned. It has been the situation for me from past 3 months if I had to consult lawyers outside. But last night the law firm made it official for me that they need to restart my PERM as the new office location is in the same state 25 miles away from the existing office but different MSA. As employer and the law firm employer chooses would have control over PERM, you cannot argue much on the route they want to take in these situations. To my situation, I had to accept the situation and move forward. My 2 cents are do not loose your sleep on this till the time the law firm confirms anything.
    Thanks you all. I did email my lawyer not my husband's don't ask me why(the greencard discussion always results in a fight between us ) but for now we are good. Broadway in Manhattan and Soho are same MSA for now..ha. You all are right and usually I email the lawyer but the paranoid women breed that I am, I also post on forums to get a quick response. Again thanks for all the responses, appreciate the valuable inputs here.

  9. #84
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    Is there any EAD/AP renewal 101 available on our blog? Thank you.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    Is there any EAD/AP renewal 101 available on our blog? Thank you.
    I don't think so. But here's one on Trackitt -> Trackitt Link

    You could also just check the USCIS site for instructions on the respective forms.
    EAD
    AP

  11. #86
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    Oct 2014 approvals update from trackitt:

    Total: 63
    TSC - 26
    NSC - 37

    Approvals have picked up slightly since the 15th. Out of 63 approved, 13 are new filers since 7/1/2014.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    I don't think so. But here's one on Trackitt -> Trackitt Link

    You could also just check the USCIS site for instructions on the respective forms.
    EAD
    AP
    Thnaks Viz.

  13. #88
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    According to AILA, there has been a recent meeting (October 15, 2014) - one of the monthly meetings scheduled - with CO regarding Visa Bulletin progress.

    10/20/2014 Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (10/15/2014)

    DOS Liaison Committee series of monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.

    AILA Doc. No. 14071401.
    Hopefully, the information from this meeting will become available on the usual websites shortly.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  14. #89
    Gurus,Q,

    Suddenly my 485 status say "your case information is incomplete within the Case Status Online.For further assistance call the no ....".It was in acceptance in the morning.I had congressional inquiry on 14th Oct.
    EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

  15. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    According to AILA, there has been a recent meeting (October 15, 2014) - one of the monthly meetings scheduled - with CO regarding Visa Bulletin progress.



    Hopefully, the information from this meeting will become available on the usual websites shortly.
    Looks like one report got out here :
    http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8296-...EXT-FEW-MONTHS

  16. #91
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    Thanks YT.

    I wasn't expecting anything new for FY2015. I was hoping he might leak some information about the numbers used in FY2014. It would be useful to know roughly how many EB1 used, as well as EB2-ROW/M/P and EB4. He previously mentioned some rough figures for EB2-I and we can probably guess that EB5 was somewhere around the maximum allocation available to them.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  17. #92

    DOL PERM Stats for FY2014

    PERM stats released for FY14-Q4 :
    http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q4.pdf

    PERM backlog still pending as of 30-Sep-2014 : 59,901.

    Total PERM certified for ALL in FY13 was : 35.188
    Total PERM certified for INDIA alone in FY14 : 35,092

    India is growing like anything. At the current rate of spillovers the people who are filing in EB2-I NOW will have to wait till 2024 to get the GCs.
    This is the reason I was suggesting to consider downgrading or filing in EB3-I for all EB2-I whose PDs are from FY12.

    Hoping that BO will do something in EO.

  18. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    PERM stats released for FY14-Q4 :
    http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q4.pdf

    PERM backlog still pending as of 30-Sep-2014 : 59,901.

    Total PERM certified for ALL in FY13 was : 35.188
    Total PERM certified for INDIA alone in FY14 : 35,092

    India is growing like anything. At the current rate of spillovers the people who are filing in EB2-I NOW will have to wait till 2024 to get the GCs.
    This is the reason I was suggesting to consider downgrading or filing in EB3-I for all EB2-I whose PDs are from FY12.

    Hoping that BO will do something in EO.
    YT,

    Thanks. I noticed they hadn't been updated earlier.

    The figures are a good fit to the unofficial figures I published.

    PERM received (74,936) represents a 3.4% increase on FY2013.

    The pending number is quite worrying. It hovered around 60k for all of FY2014, despite a very productive OFLC and a reduction in processing times in FY2014. It was reduced to about 20k at the end of FY2011 and is now approaching the 67k it reached at the end of FY2009.

    I can't guess the level it will reach if OFLC do in fact double the processing times as their FY2015 plan calls for.

    The India figure is a little deceptive, since OFLC certified 78% more cases in FY2014 compared to FY2013. In FY2014, India represented 56.0% of certified cases, compared to 59.5% in FY2013. I do agree that % that India represents has increased markedly over the last 5 years.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  19. #94
    Q,Spec,

    I am first time filer and today my case transferred to local office.What that means?I had initiated congressional inquiry.
    EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

  20. #95
    helooo,
    They might have a lot of applications at TSC and so may be doing load balancing. You might get an interview.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=case...o+local+office

  21. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by civilengineer View Post
    helooo,
    They might have a lot of applications at TSC and so may be doing load balancing. You might get an interview.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=case...o+local+office
    But if the interview is after Nov 1st and everything goes well.Will they issue the GC as dates will retrogress.
    EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

  22. #97
    Reading similar discussions on Trackitt etc from that google search, many of them were told no GC as numbers are not available. Depends on the interview date I guess and also if they allocated a number already. Who knows?

  23. #98
    heloo

    I am not a lawyer. So take my "guess" for what it's worth.

    I think xfer to local office may mean an in person interview. I hope it takes place and you get done with. Do keep us updated.

    Quote Originally Posted by helooo View Post
    Q,Spec,

    I am first time filer and today my case transferred to local office.What that means?I had initiated congressional inquiry.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  24. #99
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    June 2011 PD, Spouse 6th year H1B no PERM

    I read you all everyday... and thought of you guys when the unexpected happened.

    My PD is in 06/2011. My spouse's department is going to be dissolved and he is losing his job, right when his PERM was going to be filed. He is looking for a job right now but his 6th year H1B will be expiring in Oct 2015. After applying the months that he was out of the country for, he is eligible to extend the H1B to Jan 2016.

    My queries:
    1) What are the chances of being able to obtain EAD for 06/2011 PD before Jan 2016?
    2) How long is it taking from initiation of PERM filing to I-140 approval in EB2 India category?
    3) What should be his current plan of action to be able to qualify for H1B extension before Jan 2016?

    PS: Please relocate this thread as per forum rules when appropriate..

  25. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by eb2ODer View Post
    I read you all everyday... and thought of you guys when the unexpected happened.

    My PD is in 06/2011. My spouse's department is going to be dissolved and he is losing his job, right when his PERM was going to be filed. He is looking for a job right now but his 6th year H1B will be expiring in Oct 2015. After applying the months that he was out of the country for, he is eligible to extend the H1B to Jan 2016.

    My queries:
    1) What are the chances of being able to obtain EAD for 06/2011 PD before Jan 2016?
    2) How long is it taking from initiation of PERM filing to I-140 approval in EB2 India category?
    3) What should be his current plan of action to be able to qualify for H1B extension before Jan 2016?

    PS: Please relocate this thread as per forum rules when appropriate..
    1. 10%
    2. In general, companies do not initiate GC processing in the first year of employment. Assuming they start in the first year, initiation to perm filing takes 6 months + filing to perm approval at the current pace takes 8 months, a total of 14 months.
    3. He may need to convert to H-4 for some time until his perm is pending for 365 days to extend his H1B.

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