EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[maverick23]

I am newbie here; however, it seems this forum is also going down the path like so many other forums have in the past. I really come here regularly with a hope to get some intel on things are shaping up for the legal immigrant community. However, these series of posts "personal attacks" in the last couple of days are bothersome.

I have been hoping to bring some sense to the excruciating wait for the EB3-I community. I think it was Q who had a post sometime earlier regarding EB3-I predictions. Not putting you on the spot but can you please help reason the stand UCSIS has taken in FY 2018 by not accepting the filing dates? To make things worse, the state dept seems to want to continue its method of allocating monthly quotas and appear to wait till the last quarter for spillover. This is just un-explainable when 1) EB3 ROW is current since August 2) EB3 spillover visas were allocated not EB3-I but to other categories in the last month 3) Processing delays due to 485 interview requirements.

Can one of the "SMEs" here explain this phenomenon.

[nagendra75]

You guys are awesome and have fantastic insights and are an excellent support to the immigrant community here. God bless you all with a long healthy life and may all your good wishes come true!

[qesehmk]

I am newbie here; ...

Maverick - I restored the post you deleted. We try to keep freedom of speech on this forum. But if you feel like then of course go ahead and delete.

As per EB3I - DoS should be applying quarterly spillover. But they are not. In fact now a days they don't even apply spillover in the last quarter. They wait right till last month.

As I keep saying .... these are all tactics to keep Indians from getting visas. This is sick.

On a general note - this forum is available to you but nobody really controls it. You guys need to be SMEs for each other.

[dreamze]

Hello

Hope you are all doing great!

I need your valuable help with my situation here. I have new job offer from top most company and don’t want to let it go. My current ead is expiring in February and my ead extention is pending. Due to new rule I will have 180 days after next month to wait for new ead.

Do you think it’s advisable to change job while ead extension is pending. Gurus please help.
Thanks in advance!

[gcq]

I am newbie here; however, it seems this forum is also going down the path like so many other forums have in the past. I really come here regularly with a hope to get some intel on things are shaping up for the legal immigrant community. However, these series of posts "personal attacks" in the last couple of days are bothersome.

I have been hoping to bring some sense to the excruciating wait for the EB3-I community. I think it was Q who had a post sometime earlier regarding EB3-I predictions. Not putting you on the spot but can you please help reason the stand UCSIS has taken in FY 2018 by not accepting the filing dates? To make things worse, the state dept seems to want to continue its method of allocating monthly quotas and appear to wait till the last quarter for spillover. This is just un-explainable when 1) EB3 ROW is current since August 2) EB3 spillover visas were allocated not EB3-I but to other categories in the last month 3) Processing delays due to 485 interview requirements.

Can one of the "SMEs" here explain this phenomenon.

This is an intentional move by Visa office to deny visas to EB3-I. It is up to us to fight against this "illegal" discrimination. Nobody seems to willing to "bell the cat". I am a GC holder for the past 2 years.

[dreamze]

Hello

Hope you are all doing great!

I need your valuable help with my situation here. I have new job offer from top most company and don’t want to let it go. My current ead is expiring in February and my ead extention is pending. Due to new rule I will have 180 days after next month to wait for new ead.

Do you think it’s advisable to change job while ead extension is pending. Gurus please help.
Thanks in advance!

Friends,
Any input on this? Please share if you know any of such situation. Happy Sunday!

[gcq]

Friends,
Any input on this? Please share if you know any of such situation. Happy Sunday!

EAD is not really dependent on employer. It is only dependent on your pending I-485. As long as your pending I-485 is in good standing you should be good. The worst case scenario in this situation is USCIS could issue and RFE for EVL. Make sure you have an offer letter from your prospective employer that is AC21 compliant ( Same or similar job)

[imdeng]

If I were in your situation, I would accept the job. EAD is not linked to your job - you filed for renewal on time, all paperwork is in order - then you are good.

Hello

Hope you are all doing great!

I need your valuable help with my situation here. I have new job offer from top most company and don’t want to let it go. My current ead is expiring in February and my ead extention is pending. Due to new rule I will have 180 days after next month to wait for new ead.

Do you think it’s advisable to change job while ead extension is pending. Gurus please help.
Thanks in advance!

[dreamze]

If I were in your situation, I would accept the job. EAD is not linked to your job - you filed for renewal on time, all paperwork is in order - then you are good.

Thanks a lot! I really appreciate your prompt response imdeng and gcq.

[tatikonda]

Maverick - I restored the post you deleted. We try to keep freedom of speech on this forum. But if you feel like then of course go ahead and delete.

As per EB3I - DoS should be applying quarterly spillover. But they are not. In fact now a days they don't even apply spillover in the last quarter. They wait right till last month.

As I keep saying .... these are all tactics to keep Indians from getting visas. This is sick.

On a general note - this forum is available to you but nobody really controls it. You guys need to be SMEs for each other.

.

I firmly believe that "IT Serve" is instrumental in making filing dates go back in October 2015.
They heavily lobbied against Indians getting visa.
Rahul Reddy was main person in this saga...

Regards
Tatikonda.

[tatikonda]

,

Kevin Yoder is up for reelection in 2018. He is trying to appease Indian community and don't know his sincerity.
I doubt it because, with 300 co-sponsors this bill will pass easily in house but he is not making any attempt to bring it to house vote floor.
getting many co-sponsors in just time consuming effort. Even if it passes in House in March/April 2018. There is no guarantee that this will become LAW.
As there is absolutely no effort for this legislation in Senate. Please do not have any hopes on this.
Similar Bill was passed in 2012 with 395 Votes but no action in Senate.

I reached to Kevin Yoder's Office on his plans to bring his Bill in early November.
They told me that they are planning to attach this bill with DACA but now looks like most legislators want to attach DACA with Continuing Resolutions to fund Temporarily the Federal Government. So chances of attaching DACA to HR392 are slim to none.

I am guessing Bill HR392 will never go to house floor.

[gs1968]

To Tatikonda
There are still a lot of moving parts in this story. I agree with you that DACA is not going to be a part of the must pass Continuing resolution. Even Chuck Schumer has played down the chances of any Government shutdown over this issue

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...ver-daca-fight

On the other hand the GOP Senators have introduced the following legislation today

https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news...needed-reforms

The complete text of the Bill will be available shortly so we can see what the basis of the reforms in the EB system will be. The DACA legislation is most likely to originate in the Senate where the lead Senator is going to be Grassley and we all know what his opinion of HR 392 bills are.
In short my feeling is that DACA is a standalone Bill next year which will include some increased border security funding and enforcement measures in exchange for legalization of the Dreamers.

[Spectator]

DOS have started publishing the FY2017 Visa Statistics.

Meanwhile, DHS has just started to publish FY2016 statistics. I think that says everything about the efficiency of USCIS.

There's not much of interest published to date in the DOS Visa Statics for FY2017. Only part of the Consular Processing figures are available.

CONSULAR PROCESSING ONLY (EXCLUDES AOS APPROVALS)

Category ----------- FY2017 --- FY2016
Family Based ------ 212,155 -- 215,498
Employment Based --- 23,814 --- 25,056


Employment Based --- FY2017 --- FY2016
China --------------- 8,039 ---- 8,673
India ----------------- 756 ------ 676
Mexico ---------------- 278 ------ 241
Philippines --------- 4,278 ---- 5,664
ROW ---------------- 10,463 ---- 9,802

Total -------------- 23,814 --- 25,056


Category ----------- FY2017 --- FY2016
EB1 ----------------- 2,529 ---- 2,361
EB2 ----------------- 3,223 ---- 2,155
EB3 ----------------- 7,893 --- 10,301
EB4 ----------------- 1,755 ---- 1,734
EB5 ----------------- 8,414 ---- 8,505

Total -------------- 23,814 --- 25,056


Only when Table V is published will we know the total approvals for the FY. This is usually one of the last tables to be updated.

[Spectator]

The annual report of Consular Processing cases waiting at NVC has been published.

You can find it here.

[altek001]

Video leak of IT Serve alliance and Immigration lawyers colluding with senators and USCIS to derail Immigration reform, enslave H1B workers indefinitely, displace US workers and artificially depress wages, manipulate market activity. Modern day Slavery, Bonded Labor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGnB...ature=youtu.be

Quite interesting. Not sure on the veracity of this video to keep H1b's against getting Green Card. Corporations are raising upto $100,000 to exclude any GC legislation for H1b and this is quite sickening.

[altek001]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yMW-TP6Gfs

Check out this video... Guess who is in it... Rahul Reddy and Sheela Murthy with IT Serve Alliance. These are the real scumbags and the reason there has been no relief for GC or I-140/Ead for Indians. They have been boycotting all Obama legisilations all way along pretending they are there to assist H1b community.

[qesehmk]

Friends - you don't need any video to understand this. Just give it a good think. Who would benefit by keeping you on H1B. If an H1B person gets GC - more often than not in 3 years or less s/he could be earning anywhere between 25% to 100% more.

Video leak of IT Serve alliance and Immigration lawyers colluding with senators and USCIS to derail Immigration reform, enslave H1B workers indefinitely, displace US workers and artificially depress wages, manipulate market activity. Modern day Slavery, Bonded Labor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGnB...ature=youtu.be

Quite interesting. Not sure on the veracity of this video to keep H1b's against getting Green Card. Corporations are raising upto $100,000 to exclude any GC legislation for H1b and this is quite sickening.

[altek001]

Friends - you don't need any video to understand this. Just give it a good think. Who would benefit by keeping you on H1B. If an H1B person gets GC - more often than not in 3 years or less s/he could be earning anywhere between 25% to 100% more.

To add to your point, which i agree. Lawyers and IT Serve alliance get to benefit from cheap programs such as STEM OPT- EAD, h4 ead and DACA EAD as there is no prevailing wage in these categories. These programs suppress wages to a great extent. Time to get rid all of them.

Obama needed all these programs to appease the tech giants and which is why he enacted them by bypassing congress.

[gs1968]

This is an interesting article which looks ahead to the next congress. If conditions are not optimal at this time for favorable immigration reform then we have to look ahead to the next chairman of HJC. Goodlatte who voted for HR 3012 has shown no willingness to bring similar bills up after he took over the job in 2013. Labrador would have been helpful but is going to run for ID governor. A Democratic takeover and Lofgren chairmanship would be the best scenario.

http://thehill.com/policy/national-s...r-up-for-grabs

[feedmyback]

Someone posted this on trackitt comparing the PERM numbers between 2016 and 2017. There is a visible reduction in PERM numbers in 2017. Does it mean there will be some spillover this year for EB2/EB3 India?

https://www.permchecker.com/2016

https://www.permchecker.com/2017

[EB3Iwaiting]

Someone posted this on trackitt comparing the PERM numbers between 2016 and 2017. There is a visible reduction in PERM numbers in 2017. Does it mean there will be some spillover this year for EB2/EB3 India?

https://www.permchecker.com/2016

https://www.permchecker.com/2017

Does not matter much. CO does not apply SO till the last month of the year and does not move dates aggressively enough. By the time he does it, it is too late to approve those cased within the same FY. He will then complain that applicants are late in sending their RFE documents which is why he needed to divert GCs to another category so that they are not wasted. It is the same story for the past 3 years even since EB3ROW started giving some SO to EB3Is.

This is an ongoing conspiracy to prevent giving GCs to Indians as much as possible.

[qesehmk]

I agree on Lawyers and IT serve alliance. But Obama is in a different league - individually and as a president.

What makes the world complex is motivations and values of individuals and entities. Too many shades of grey and too little b&w!

STEM OPT - EAD is a legitimate policy decision to retain talent in US. DACA EAD is a political calculation and a fiscal decision too since it generates revenue. H4 EAD must be result of corporate lobbying.

Any interest of immigrants is collateral and incidental. All 3 decisions above are driven by various motivations.

p.s. - While I do agree that immigrants are paid less - I am not sure about H1Bs ability to suppress wages beyond. I think American economy is too big to be influenced like that.

To add to your point, which i agree. Lawyers and IT Serve alliance get to benefit from cheap programs such as STEM OPT- EAD, h4 ead and DACA EAD as there is no prevailing wage in these categories. These programs suppress wages to a great extent. Time to get rid all of them.

Obama needed all these programs to appease the tech giants and which is why he enacted them by bypassing congress.

[YTeleven]

Someone posted this on trackitt comparing the PERM numbers between 2016 and 2017. There is a visible reduction in PERM numbers in 2017. Does it mean there will be some spillover this year for EB2/EB3 India?

https://www.permchecker.com/2016

https://www.permchecker.com/2017

Less PERM numbers are always a good news for the EB-I backlogs.. but we might see the effect of it in future not now... also EB2-I will have very minimal effect out of these processing delays. on the other hand we will see huge effect on EB3-I backlogs.. I think we will approach towards a zero upward porting very soon.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hi YT,

I still think a lot depends on how DOS wants to move the Final Action dates. If CO is not aggressive enough in moving EB3I dates, visas will be reallocated to other categories at the end of the year. Happening for the past 3 years now. Or else, your calculation was spot on. As long as EB3 gets its fair share of GCs, EB3I should move forward rapidly.

Also, why do you think that EB2-I will see minimal effects of the processing delays?

[YTeleven]

Hi YT,

I still think a lot depends on how DOS wants to move the Final Action dates. If CO is not aggressive enough in moving EB3I dates, visas will be reallocated to other categories at the end of the year. Happening for the past 3 years now. Or else, your calculation was spot on. As long as EB3 gets its fair share of GCs, EB3I should move forward rapidly.

Also, why do you think that EB2-I will see minimal effects of the processing delays?

I don't have a straight answer to this but I'll say this:
With NO more vertical spillover, having the supply of visas equally divided among EB 3 & 4 as 40k each and demand numbers are always higher for EB2 comparing to EB3 (60:40)
In this situation if you are expecting any horizontal spillover in these 2 categories you will always see a better spillover in EB3-I than EB2-I.