EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB3Iwaiting]

@Spectator @YTeleven and other Gurus,

Can anyone explain how the math is going to work for EB2I? See post # 245.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...iction/page/10

EB2I movement in the September VB proves that the April inventory for EB2I is incorrect. There is no way there can a reduction in inventory in 2009 and an increase in inventory in late 2008 when EB2I dates never reached those dates. Hopefully, they release the July inventory with the EB2I inventory corrected. They did not release a July one last year.

That being said, I still think some GCs were taken out of EB3 and probably given to EB2. CO did not move the EB3I dates aggressively enough thinking that EB3ROW demand will jump up. His conservative approach towards EB3 keeps hurting the entire category. How many GCs were actually moved from EB3 to EB2, we will know next year when the annual report comes out.

[srimurthy]

08/15/2017: Approaching Trial Times for DACA Community and H-4 EAD Community

Is there a possibility that the H4-EAD rule be rolled back? What's are the thoughts of the guru's and anyone having additional inputs. The whole in-efficiency seen around all departments for an advanced country just seems to be ridiculous. The one hope for spouse to work, is it going to be short lived... with so much delays in EB2 and EB3 dates.

[usvisas]

Since 2010, below are visa numbers that were given to EB2I & EB3I. What is the biggest factor that has brought the numbers down from 2015? Is it EB1I, EBROW demand..?


2010 19961 2856
2011 23997 3954
2012 19726 2758
2013 17193 7763
2014 23527 3465
2015 7235 7003
2016 3930 4583

[pridhvi]

Got CO's latest check in with AILA, for what it's worth:

EB-2 Worldwide. The final action date for EB-2 Worldwide advances nine months in September, from April 1, 2015, to January 1, 2016. This category will become current again on October 1, 2017, and it should remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 India. Smaller than anticipated EB-3 to EB-2 upgrade demand allows EB-2 India to advance one month to August 22, 2008, for September. Members should expect additional, slow movement of a few weeks at a time starting in October. It is hoped that the final action date for EB-2 India will be advanced to a date in December 2008 at some point between January and April 2018, depending on the level of EB-3 upgrade demand. Charlie is also hopeful that the final action date for EB-2 India could advance to a date in 2009 at some point during the second half of FY 2018.

EB-3 Worldwide. The EB-3 Worldwide final action date, which became current in August, is likely to remain current in October, absent significant demand materializing within the next few weeks. Demand for EB-3 Worldwide will have a significant impact on the ability of the EB-3 India final action date to advance significantly at the end of FY 2018, based on the availability of “otherwise unused” numbers.

EB-3 India. The final action date for EB-3 India advances three months in September to October 15, 2006, consistent with Charlie’s predictions. This category is expected to continue to advance at a pace of several weeks at a time as we enter the new fiscal year.

DOL's perm statistics show a huge drop of approvals since mid-July. In the last 30 days, DOL processed 3000 cases (ROW 2000). It usually would be around 8000-9000. Approvals for the same period in 2016 was 9000, out of which ROW was 6000. This includes both EB2 and EB3. Assuming that there is a drop of 65% in PERM approvals, this should translate to a lower demand in the coming months. Can we assume that, if this trend continues for an year, there will be a large horizontal SO for EB2 (and EB3)? I calculated the SO to be roughly 20K based on my assumption that there will be 60% fewer cases from ROW. This leaves us with 60% of 34K (leaving india and china = 40K-6K) = roughly 20K+2.8K for EB2. Am i right in my calculation here, ofcourse assuming that the perm application received/processed is at the same rate for atleast 11 more months.

[4WatItsWorth]

Hi Spec, Q, Gurus,

There is a user on trackitt predicting with great confidence that EB2-I will reach Jan1 2010 by FY 18 end. Has something changed, does 2018 outlook really suddenly look that good? I, along with many many others, am sure would be elated if that is the case but I am not sure it is really true.

Thanks,
4W

[pridhvi]

Hi Spec, Q, Gurus,

There is a user on trackitt predicting with great confidence that EB2-I will reach Jan1 2010 by FY 18 end. Has something changed, does 2018 outlook really suddenly look that good? I, along with many many others, am sure would be elated if that is the case but I am not sure it is really true.

Thanks,
4W

I think his confidence stems from the fact that PERM processing slowed down for EB2/EB3 by almost 65% compared to last year in the last 40 days. If this trend continues, there will be a spillover of 35K into these categories (20-24k for EB2I and 10-15K for EB3I based on the ROW usage last year and taking this drop into consideration). there might be other facts too that I am not aware of

Spec/Q/YTEleven, I have been following your analysis for a long time and want to thank you for all the inputs and analysis you guys do. yo

[na_dev]

Another delay in employment based GC will start from Oct-1


All Employment based visa to GC will go through mandatory F2F interview process.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-hurdle-242050

[abcx13]

Another delay in employment based GC will start from Oct-1


All Employment based visa to GC will go through mandatory F2F interview process.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-hurdle-242050

Maybe it will be waived for people already here? What's the point of extreme vetting people who are already here? Then again, logic doesn't matter with Trump.

[vedu]

Another delay in employment based GC will start from Oct-1


All Employment based visa to GC will go through mandatory F2F interview process.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-hurdle-242050

Anything that slows down the process is good for the backlogged applicants and anything that makes the process more efficient is bad news for the backlogged applicants. This sounds counter-intuitive, but it is true! So let's be happy!

[anuprab]

Experts in the forum. not sure if this is the right thread but anyone has any idea on how much to wait after submitting RFER before initiating service requests. Also what are the steps to take. Do we raise SR first, infopass appt, contact congressman... anyone who has done this before?

[tatikonda]

its Official Now !!

https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-rele...ncy-applicants

[anuprab]

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

[gcq]

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

Yay ! Congrats. Enjoy the new found freedom !

[EB3Iwaiting]

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

On 4/28, you were worried and wondering what you can do and on 4/29 you received the magic text. Congratulations!

[anuprab]

On 4/28, you were worried and wondering what you can do and on 4/29 you received the magic text. Congratulations!

Such is life! thanks

[srimurthy]

its Official Now !!

https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-rele...ncy-applicants

Interesting, and does this make people appearing for EB1 interviews on IT end defending their special skills may become difficult and possibility to get more for EB2. Also more possible chances for rejections in all categories.

[abcx13]

Interesting, and does this make people appearing for EB1 interviews on IT end defending their special skills may become difficult and possibility to get more for EB2. Also more possible chances for rejections in all categories.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Could be good if more denials mean more SOFAD, but bad if one's own application is denied!

[gten20]

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

Congratulations!

[anuprab]

Congratulations!

Thanks. I hope everyone who has responded to RFE gets approved soon. this last leg of waiting was way more stressful than last 11 years. This forum has kept my sanity for the last couple of years. Cant forget YTeleven's chart, it came at a time when I had lost all hopes of getting a greencard on EB3.

[redsox2009]

July 2017 Consular Processing Figures

DOS have published the figures for July 2017 https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...issuances.html

Here's the analysis of the Employment Based Classes.

July 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes

Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines---- ROW --- Total
EB1 ------- 00 ------ 2 ------- 2 ------------ 0 ---- 208 ----- 212
EB2 ------- 09 ------ 1 ------- 4 ----------- 30 ---- 224 ----- 268
EB3 ------- 09 ----- 18 ------ 18 ---------- 255 ---- 299 ----- 599
EB4 -------- 0 ----- 04 ------- 0 ------------12 ---- 202 ----- 218
EB5 ------ 444 ----- 05 ------- 3 ----------- 0 ----- 179 ----- 631

Total ---- 462 ----- 30 ------ 27 ---------- 297 ----1112 --- 1,928

[whereismygc]

We are giving away all forecast plans proceeds from this weekend towards the benefit of Harvey victims.

And you get 50% off on all forecasting plans. Buy your membership today and establish clarity to the GC timelines.

p.s. - We are extending this until Friday. Thank you for your positive response.

[idliman]

What's the prediction for EB2I 2009 to Clear? My PD is a week before 01DEC09. Is May 2020 the worst case scenario? Optimistically or realistically what?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Unfortunately, no July pending inventory again. Looks like this has become the norm.

[idliman]

Unfortunately, no July pending inventory again. Looks like this has become the norm.

Unfortunately without the release of the next Pending Inventory we are a little bit blank and cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel. Hope for the best.

[redsox2009]

My guesstimate for OCT Bulletin, Most likely there could be cutoff dates for EB1 I and EB2. Since everyone has to go through interviews, and they want to adjust/come-up with plan for their resources.