Spec,
You have been immensely helpful. Your data has always driven most of the meaningful discussions on this forum, which happens to be the most knowledgeable forum for people like me.
I noticed that you haven't updated the data at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011 after Oct 2016. Any plans of updating it soon ? OR did you move it to some other location ?
Jagan,Originally Posted by Jagan01
The post you reference is now historical for very mundane reasons.
There's a width limit to posts and I can only fit 6 FY worth of data in the width allowance. The FY2011 to FY2016 post has now been superceded by a FY2012 to FY2017 one.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Thanks for the link to the new location.
The numbers are indicating that CO should have already retrgresed entire EB1 category. Last year total trackitt approvals were 518 for EB1-ALL and they are already at 515 for this FY. When will CO learn to not misallocate !!
Spec - Thanks for all the number crunching you do. Appreciate it as always.
I have a basic question. If EB2-ROW is retrogressed and if there are any unused visas in EB2M/P, where do they go? Do they go to the most retrogressed country or will they go to the "worldwide pool" for any country to use?
Thanks!
Jagan,
Because India dominates the number of EB1 Trackitt approvals (the opposite to real world), you have to be careful looking at just the total number of all EB1 approvals on Trackitt.
As an example, last year 382 Indian approvals on Trackitt equated to 10,985 actual approvals. That's a 3.48% representation.
Last year, 518 total EB1 approvals on Trackitt equated to 43,728 actual approvals.
Therefore 136 non-Indian EB1 approvals on Trackitt equated to 32,743 actual approvals. That's a 0.42% representation.
Even if those % held for FY2017 (and the % vary from year to year), that would give a current consumption of slightly over 30k, because non-Indian approvals to date on Trackitt are only 72. It's also likely that Indian representation on Trackitt has also increased, since it is unlikely that current consumption has reached 13k.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
gcpursuit,
By definition, if EB2-ROW becomes retrogressed, then there should be no spare visas available within EB2 (or falling down from EB1).
Leaving that aside, if CO's calculations were incorrect and all EB2 demand within the Cut Off dates set was satisfied, the visas would fall down to EB3. They would first be available to Countries that had not reached 7%, then to the most retrogressed Country. Given we think EB3-I would be receiving Fall Across anyway, they would (hypothetically) probably go to EB3-I (assuming the numbers within the Cut Off Date allows it).
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
hi Spec,
m new to the forum and dont know much about the gc process in general I would like to know what this data means.
my pd is feb 2009 i have ead and have been watching the dates come upto late 2008 and go back for the past 3 years.
does this info help me predict how long my wait will be and how can i do that?
Any help from any of the guru's here greatly appreciated.!
Hi Spec,
I have been following your posts but haven't really gotten into the calculations. However, today I tried something and failed to wrap my head around it. From the Jan 2017 inventory report, there are 5613 visas needed to clear EB2-I up to Q1 2009 (my PD is March 2009). Porting from EB3 has been a cause for EB2-I dates to be stuck in 2008. Hypothetically, if we put all EB3I and EB2I in one bucket (assuming additional 2500, 5000 and 1500 in EB3I for 2007, 2008 & Q1 2009), this bucket would have 5613 + 21895 = 27508. Now throwing 5600 visas (2800 for each category) at this combined bucket, it should take 27508/5600 = 4.9 years to clear up to Q1 2009 (both EB3I and EB2I). Is this not logical?
Where I lost it is, assuming only 70% of the 27508 EB3I port, there are two buckets - the remaining 30% EB3I who get 2800 visas per year and the second bucket with 5613 + (27508 * 70%) = 20940 visas. Now throwing 2800 visas at this second bucket, it takes 20940/2800 = 7.48 years to clear up to Q1 2009!
What am I missing? Why does treating EB3 + EB2 as one single line yield ~5 years vs only 70% porting yields 7.48 years? I'm sure I am missing something obvious - but what is it? Does this mean it is a better process to make EB 2 & 3 as one single line going forward and predict better than live with this unpredictable porting? Or is that what will be achieved once EB3 and EB2 cut off dates start converging?
Thanks!!
gcy2k07,
In your first example, you are calculating a time that both EB2 and EB3 would take to reach the target at the same time (5,613 + 21,895)/5,600 = 4.91 years.
In the second example, EB2 and EB3 would reach the target at different rates.
I think you made a slight error in that calculation, since the 70% porting should be of the 21,985 EB3 cases, not the total 27,508.
EB2 would take (5,613 + (21,895*70%))/2,800 = 7.48 years but EB3 would only take (21,895*30%)/2,800 = 2.34 years in your example. The average to reach this point remains the same (7.48 + 2.34)/2 = 9.82/2 = 4.91 years.
I hope I have interpreted your post correctly.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you Spec! Makes sense (also yes, I used the wrong number to derive the 70% porting).
So the average comes to be the same - but for someone waiting in the EB2I line, it matters how the entire inventory before him/her is treated? That is, as one big pool or separate pools? It is ironic that Q1 2009 is reached faster for someone in EB2I if everyone (EB 2 & 3) is considered the same or 100% of EB3 port. But anything less makes the wait longer!
Thanks for the clarification, Spec. If I understand it correctly, if M/P don't use their entire allocation, their share is distributed to ROW and then even if there is anything left it will come to most retrogressed country aka EB2 I. I am talking only about Fall across for EB2. Fall down visas are not gonna happen anymore given EB1 demand.
Hi Spec,
do these number represent all pending cases, I mean does that number (5613 +21895) take into account the family members or just the main applicant.
if it doesnt, than the whole calculation falls apart yeah?
gcpursuit,
That's correct.
Unused visas by a Country are first made available to other Countries in the Category that have not reached the 7% limit. Once that demand is satisfied, spare visas are made available to the most retrogressed Country that has already reached the 7% limit. Once all demand has been reached in the Category, spare visas fall down to the next Category for use by Countries that have not yet reached the 7% limit. Only after that has been satisfied would visas be available to Countries already at the 7% limit in the lower Category.
As for Fall Down from EB2 to EB3, I agree with you. Demand in EB2 to become Current is likely in the 6 figures. I find it hard to even envisage a date when Fall Down might occur.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Pending Inventory of EB2 is very much appears a moving value.
Is EB2 PD March 2009 is straight EB2? which missed in getting GC in 2014?
Or ported to EB2 from EB3 and if so when? between 2010-2017?
It appears both groups EB2 and EB3 are moving in tandem.
Unless some rules are changed, the progress appears slow
Yes - straight EB2.. PERM went into random audit and missed earlier opportunities.
We have a cutoff for EB1
EB1I - 01JAN12
EB2I - 01JUL08
EB3I - 15MAY05
Oh no! All 'highly qualified' international managers (some waiting in Canada) have to wait longer....:dWe have a cutoff for EB1
EB1I - 01JAN12
EB2I - 01JUL08
EB3I - 15MAY05
Happy for EB3-I - hopefully moves faster going forward
Sorry if this is a repeat - the 485 inventory as of April 2017 is released and the numbers seems to be skewed up
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...04-26-2017.pdf
EB2 BackLog(Numbers in Jan 2017 Inventory vs April 2017 Inventory)
2008 - 2267 to 7839
2009 - 12118 to 9092
2010 - 4748 to 1770
Yes, they have certainly messed up 2008 numbers for EB2I. There is no way 598 applicants in April and 886 applications in May pending, and still the date can progress to July 01 as indicated in the most recent visa bulletin.
On the other note, the dates have moved as expected for both EB3I and EB2I!
Also how can the numbers go down for 2009 and 2010
Finally !! Glad the correction happened warlier this year. Hopefully there wont be misallocations this time around.We have a cutoff for EB1
EB1I - 01JAN12
EB2I - 01JUL08
EB3I - 15MAY05
As posted above, I don't understand how the cut off for EB1 matters. Quote from the bulletin:
"OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE CHINA AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIRST (E1) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES
Readers were advised in item D of the May Visa Bulletin number 5, that it would be necessary to impose a date for these two countries in the near future. The continued high level of demand for E1 numbers for USCIS adjustment of status applicants has required the establishment of a date for June. This has been done in an attempt to hold number use within the Worldwide E1 annual limit. The E1 date for these two countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2018."
The last line from the bulletin clearly states EB1 will be made current for India and China in the new fiscal year. Going by current inventory for EB1 (13,423) there will definitely be misallaocation with regards to spillovers towards EB2 and EB3, since the eventual goal of the immigration department is to make EB1 current which every year is trending up, and biting a huge chunk out of EB2 and EB3 spillovers. Again I might be wrong but reading from what's stated in the visa bulletin it sure looks like that.
Moreover it's gone beyond my imagination and mathematical skills to understand the April 2017 inventory. As pointed out by few posters above, pending inventory for 2008 has gone up by almost 5500 but has gone down for 2009 and 2010. I don't understand what kind of magical porting is going on there. Maybe the immigration god is planning to retrograde again if it's not a mistake. Again I might be wrong.
Exactly my thought. Hopefully this year EB3 India 2006 PDs will see some light.
They are seeing light already. RFE's for April 2006 PD's are also sighted.
EB3I is supposed to have rapid movement.However, in last 2 years they didn't allocate that many spillovers to India only for EB3. Considerable spillovers are allocated to Philippines as well even though their queue is shorter than India. Also , I'm not sure about the correctness of the data they have reported . For example , Look at the EB2I inventory . Numbers reduced by 3K from 2010 and no change in 2009. I have outlined analysis in my blog :
http://chatur-chintamani.blogspot.com/
There should be more transparency about visa allocation which will help us to estimate our predictions correctly.
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