EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[iatiam]

Filed 485 in 2014. Waiting since then.

I am no expert, but there is reason for hope. EB2I has been battered from all sides - EB1C filings, Porting, EB4 going to undocumented and increased EB5 filings and overall improvement in economy. However, a lot of these things might change in the next 6 to 18 months.

1. Spec says that EB4 demand should persist for 2.5 years, and I hope to see less demand before that
2. If EB3I moves to April 2006, porting will come down
3. EB5 has been under lot of limelight because of abuse issues
4. Just a matter of time before EB1C is under scrutiny. Already hearing a lot of USCIS office visits

I think future looks bright. Keep the faith on.

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I have always been so near but yet so far. Wanted to get inputs from Gurus as to when they think the PD Jan 2009 will be current again.

Am kind of losing hope now. What are others with PD Dec 2008 / Jan 2009 planning? Its so frustrating that CO misallocated some of the visa numbers last year and nothing prohibits him from doing it every year.

After the misallocations from CO, I think its pointless to do any calculations/predictions.

May be this is just some frustration that I am venting on this forum, but its been really a long and endless wait.

Hang in there Jagan. I think you will get through this year.

[imdeng]

I think so too. You are close enough to sniff it - should happen for you this year.

Hang in there Jagan. I think you will get through this year.

[Mohan34689]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

Does than mean for YR 2009 there are only 4K Eb3-I, since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory.

[imdeng]

There are some factors to consider - one PERM may result in more than one visa - the average I think is 2 visa per perm. Plus - many of these perm might be for EB3 to EB2 upgrades. Then there are EB2s that do not need perm. So the calculation is not a simple subtraction - but the basic premise is correct - there shouldn't be too many EB3Is in 2009.

Does than mean for YR 2009 there are only 4K Eb3-I, since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory.

[Kanmani]

I think so too. You are close enough to sniff it - should happen for you this year.

How about me ? (just kidding...I stopped dreaming.... never stopped reading Q's forum...)
Just to say 'Hiiiiiiiii' to all.

[Jagan01]

Hang in there Jagan. I think you will get through this year.

Thanks, Q. I really hope so but there have been no RFEs yet. Then again... you never know with USCIS... expect the unexpected...

I think so too. You are close enough to sniff it - should happen for you this year.

Thanks, imdeng.

How about me ? (just kidding...I stopped dreaming.... never stopped reading Q's forum...)
Just to say 'Hiiiiiiiii' to all.

Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii Kanmani. How have you been?

Q, imdeng, Kanmani, iatiam, and all other long-time members of this forum. Its been such a long time on this forum, that when I read posts from you guys, it feels like reading posts from friends. Hopefully, we all get GCs soon.

Within the next couple of years, many of those old timers would be citizens and many would have already become citizens.

[chennai09]

Hello guys new to this forum, EB2 - may 2009. would the retrogression of EB2 I filing date indicate that they would allow using filing date to be used? this might be a positive direction i think. am hoping there would be a chance atleast to file for EAD some time in 2018. i have crossed the perm ocean 3 times.. not sure if i could withstand one more of this new job ->wait 6 months to initiate perm -> perm preparation for 6 months (PWD took 4 months!) -> wait for perm approval 6 months!!!

[imdeng]

Hey Kanmani - Nice to see you here after so long.

How about me ? (just kidding...I stopped dreaming.... never stopped reading Q's forum...)
Just to say 'Hiiiiiiiii' to all.

[imdeng]

I think we will all be Senior Citizens before we will ever be Citizens!

Q, imdeng, Kanmani, iatiam, and all other long-time members of this forum. Its been such a long time on this forum, that when I read posts from you guys, it feels like reading posts from friends. Hopefully, we all get GCs soon.

Within the next couple of years, many of those old timers would be citizens and many would have already become citizens.

[nagendra75]

Trump Nominates DHS Insider to Serve as New USCIS Director (https://www.murthy.com/2017/04/19/tr...scis-director/)

Should the folks in the queues be worried? :-( This is getting very depressing every day. Unnecessary stress for the creative minds with no clarity.

[GCdreamz]

Hope EB5 Visa expiry or changes to increase the capital requirement will give some spill over (which might be consumed by EB1 though).....hope for some relief....

[Spectator]

I've updated the PERM Data with the Q2 FY2017 data release.

[oogway]

Hey All, I am a dependent applicant and our PD is fag end of 2009 EB2-I. We are currently on EAD/AP. Considering the current rate of PD progressions it seems unlikely that this date will be current in next 2-3 years. I am expecting it to be current in 2020-2021. I started a company few months back and we have signed up some paying clients. We can close some more deals in the coming months. We are interested in setting up a offshore office (engineering and local sales). I will be responsible for setting it up and hiring people under me.

So, here is my question.

Can I stay outside of US for more than a year on AP (I can split my time between US and India until the office has stabilized)? If yes, will i qualify for EB1 for Multi National Executive /Manager Category. We are currently not taking substantial salary as we are a very early stage startup. Will this be problem if we decide to go EB1 route.

Thanks everyone.

[aquatican]

I think we will all be Senior Citizens before we will ever be Citizens!

So true. I just realized its now 9 years since i started the process in 08. My PD of 19 Jun 09 has come and retrogressed at least 5 times. What a ride!

[Mohan34689]

So true. I just realized its now 9 years since i started the process in 08. My PD of 19 Jun 09 has come and retrogressed at least 5 times. What a ride!

Seriously!
I see June 2009 being current ONLY ONCE during Feb-March-April 2012. I was never current after.

[aquatican]

Yeah Man! look at this graph. The blue wait line going low is the EB2 wait time in years . The lower part is where it crosses into 2009 and then swings back. Though you are right it didn't reach June.

Seriously!
I see June 2009 being current ONLY ONCE during Feb-March-April 2012. I was never current after.

Attachment 1182

[Suva2001]

Thanks Spec for your wonderful work.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for your wonderful work.

Thanks

Suva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data.

[redsox2009]

Spec,

Regularly I check your data. Thanks dude for your help.

[Suva2001]

Suva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data.

Actually you know, I have friends who are waiting in EB2/EB3 line. Some of them have PDs in 2010/2011. They always ask me when they can get GC or how they can calculate the time to get GC. I always show your data so that they can calculate the time. You probably don't know but you are truly doing a selfless job for many others.

Thanks

[GCdreamz]

Thank you All for the insights...

[knighthood83]

I agree . Thanks Spec.

[imdeng]

Spec - Many Thanks for your work. I won't be surprised if there are thousands of folks who regularly look up your data and work. I surely do.

Suva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data.

[abcx13]

Suva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data.

Spec, thanks a lot for all the hard work! Your insights and data are priceless! You (and Q of course!) are the MVP!