EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Nishant_imt]

Its only going to be watched by Indians/chinese waiting for greencard. Meaning enough to make ot a commercial success. That's why a VC funded it.. coz it will bring him dough. No American lawmaker or any commoner would watch it. No one cares. Its only going to make few people rich. It will have no affect on policy making.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ts-u-s-cinemas

[redsox2009]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2017_qtr1.pdf

Q1 performance data by USCIS.

In the data it showed 33256 approved 485 cases. Based on the trackit data and prevous trackit data, I was able to break down the estimate of the approvals.

EB1 India 6000
Non Indian 7500
EB2 India 714
ROW 9500
C+M+P 1200
EB3 India 1040
ROW 4500
C+M+P 2000

Don't scream at me if your numbers are different from mine.

[Jagan01]

May 2017 VB published.

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...-may-2017.html

[zenmaster]

So, no movement in Final Action Dates.
2 Month drop in filing dates. Amazing

[EB3Iwaiting]

Yes, that was expected. EB2I finds it hard to move because of porters. But interestingly, look at the EB3I filing dates. It moved to 22nd April 2006. So, that is where they probably expect the dates to be by end of FY 2017. So, good SO coming for EB3I this year it seems.

Unless of course, CO decides to funnel the GCs to another category or DOL/USCIS starts processing ROWs faster to keep Indians waiting longer.

[Justmyself]

I have a basic question - Looking at the latest pending i nventory (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...nuary_2017.pdf), it is clear that EB2ROW has more demand than EB3ROW. In that case, why is EB2ROW current while EB3ROW is not? For more than a year, EB3ROW has consistently had low demand. What is stopping them from making the category current?

[amulchandra]

But interestingly, look at the EB3I filing dates. It moved to 22nd April 2006. So, that is where they probably expect the dates to be by end of FY 2017. So, good SO coming for EB3I this year it seems.

Unless of course, CO decides to funnel the GCs to another category or DOL/USCIS starts processing ROWs faster to keep Indians waiting longer.

Hi all,

What do you guys think about the filing dates movement for EB3 India. Do you guys think 2006 PDs will finally see the day light.

Thanks
Amul

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hi all,

What do you guys think about the filing dates movement for EB3 India. Do you guys think 2006 PDs will finally see the day light.

Thanks
Amul

Since CO updated the Filing dates very close to Q4, it seems he now has a pretty good idea of the SO that EB3I may end up getting. So, as per his latest calculations, EB3I should have its Final Action date around 22nd April 2006 by end of FY 2017. To reach that date, EB3I should get around 5200 GCs this year considering EB3I started at 1 March 2005. Last year EB3I received around 4500 GCs while taking into factor that some 2500 GCs were taken out from EB3 (which could have resulted in more EB3I GCs) and given to EB1 along with higher ROW PERM processing. This year ROW PERM demand is lower than last year, so India eventually getting 5200 GCs this year is certainly possible.

Considering the low ROW PERMs compared to last year, this year's EB3I GC allocation should actually be higher in my mind, but I presume CO will take out some from EB3 and give it to EB1 and there is also EB3P demand. So, considering these two factors, 5200 EB3I allocation for FY 2017 is certainly possible.

Spec and other gurus can of course provide their thoughts.

[amulchandra]

Since CO updated the Filing dates very close to Q4, it seems he now has a pretty good idea of the SO that EB3I may end up getting. So, as per his latest calculations, EB3I should have its Final Action date around 22nd April 2006 by end of FY 2017. To reach that date, EB3I should get around 5200 GCs this year considering EB3I started at 1 March 2005. Last year EB3I received around 4500 GCs while taking into factor that some 2500 GCs were taken out from EB3 (which could have resulted in more EB3I GCs) and given to EB1 along with higher ROW PERM processing. This year ROW PERM demand is lower than last year, so India eventually getting 5200 GCs this year is certainly possible.

Considering the low ROW PERMs compared to last year, this year's EB3I GC allocation should actually be higher in my mind, but I presume CO will take out some from EB3 and give it to EB1 and there is also EB3P demand. So, considering these two factors, 5200 EB3I allocation for FY 2017 is certainly possible.

Spec and other gurus can of course provide their thoughts.

Thank you very much. Hope your words come true.

[iatiam]

Since CO updated the Filing dates very close to Q4, it seems he now has a pretty good idea of the SO that EB3I may end up getting. So, as per his latest calculations, EB3I should have its Final Action date around 22nd April 2006 by end of FY 2017. To reach that date, EB3I should get around 5200 GCs this year considering EB3I started at 1 March 2005. Last year EB3I received around 4500 GCs while taking into factor that some 2500 GCs were taken out from EB3 (which could have resulted in more EB3I GCs) and given to EB1 along with higher ROW PERM processing. This year ROW PERM demand is lower than last year, so India eventually getting 5200 GCs this year is certainly possible.

Considering the low ROW PERMs compared to last year, this year's EB3I GC allocation should actually be higher in my mind, but I presume CO will take out some from EB3 and give it to EB1 and there is also EB3P demand. So, considering these two factors, 5200 EB3I allocation for FY 2017 is certainly possible.

Spec and other gurus can of course provide their thoughts.

Does it mean that some point in 2018 we will effectively deplete the entire EB3I inventory? If the dates move to April 2016 this year then there is only about 6,000 people more in the inventory left which could all be gone by the next year. Does it also mean the dates will move to generate inventory in 2018?

iatiam

[hope21]

I know two people who happen to be "Multi-national Managers". One guy was working in a shop for 35,000 dollars per year (17 dollar per hour) and the other guy was a manager in a grocery shop. Both got GCs in less than an year. Oh well...

I completely agree with you and I think I stated here previously also here. The only way the companies can be forced not to misuse the system is by forcing them to adhere to competitive salary structure (specifically when they are IT Managers and are paid only 55/65k and any IT Managers get paid more than 100k in the outside market). If these Indian IT companies are forced to follow this salary structure (like LCA salary), more than half of these positions will be gone (along with the GCs they are sponsoring for those Managers/L1 Visas) and lives of EB2 and EB3 folks will be a little easier.

[vedu]

So, no movement in Final Action Dates.
2 Month drop in filing dates. Amazing

EB2I situation is not as bad as it appears from the current visa bulletin. It is in a consolidation phase. In upcoming June visa bulletin, you will find that EB2I dates have advanced by a whooping 4 years on year-on-year basis!! Last June the dates were in 2004. It is unfortunate that spill-over/across situation is not good this year, but there are some other tailwinds to compensate for that. Come next year, porting will insignificant. EB3I is getting a good spillover this year and that will help.

All and all, I will be happy if EB3I ends up in 2006 and EB2I leaves 2008 behind by the end of current year! It looks like a certainty for EB3I and for EB2I, we will see!!

[imdeng]

EB3I inventory building is not far away. I would imagine that by the start of FY2019 (i.e Oct 2018) there won't be enough EB3Is left and they will have to shift to inventory building mode.

Does it mean that some point in 2018 we will effectively deplete the entire EB3I inventory? If the dates move to April 2016 this year then there is only about 6,000 people more in the inventory left which could all be gone by the next year. Does it also mean the dates will move to generate inventory in 2018?

iatiam

[imdeng]

I disagree. Situation for EB2I is worse than we even imagine. Yes - we may enter 2009 by end of current FY. But then we are looking at may be 3-5 years just to get out of 2009 - and 2009 is the lightest year in recent history as far as demand density is concerned. 2010 is dense comparatively - it will be not be 9-10 years from now until we reach end of 2010.

Of course things can change. Just see how quickly China demand evaporated in EB2/3. Same may happen to S. Korea. Trump slump may deepen in all immigration activities. We may have another recession that depresses job market. We may even have immigration legislation! But given current trends - EB2I situation is beyond dire - its nearly hopeless for people getting in the queue right now or those who joined in last couple years.

Pre 07/07 people lucked out - got EADs, pre 04/2010 people lucked out as USCIS over-inventoried and got EADs. Folks who joined after that need a similar lucky break as without EAD, I don't know how people will wait out for 8-10-more years.

EB2I situation is not as bad as it appears from the current visa bulletin. It is in a consolidation phase. In upcoming June visa bulletin, you will find that EB2I dates have advanced by a whooping 4 years on year-on-year basis!! Last June the dates were in 2004. It is unfortunate that spill-over/across situation is not good this year, but there are some other tailwinds to compensate for that. Come next year, porting will insignificant. EB3I is getting a good spillover this year and that will help.

All and all, I will be happy if EB3I ends up in 2006 and EB2I leaves 2008 behind by the end of current year! It looks like a certainty for EB3I and for EB2I, we will see!!

[knighthood83]

I disagree. Situation for EB2I is worse than we even imagine. Yes - we may enter 2009 by end of current FY. But then we are looking at may be 3-5 years just to get out of 2009 - and 2009 is the lightest year in recent history as far as demand density is concerned. 2010 is dense comparatively - it will be not be 9-10 years from now until we reach end of 2010.

Of course things can change. Just see how quickly China demand evaporated in EB2/3. Same may happen to S. Korea. Trump slump may deepen in all immigration activities. We may have another recession that depresses job market. We may even have immigration legislation! But given current trends - EB2I situation is beyond dire - its nearly hopeless for people getting in the queue right now or those who joined in last couple years.

Pre 07/07 people lucked out - got EADs, pre 04/2010 people lucked out as USCIS over-inventoried and got EADs. Folks who joined after that need a similar lucky break as without EAD, I don't know how people will wait out for 8-10-more years.

True with EB2. But folks in EB2 in 09 and 10 wont reverse port to EB3?

Will that not help since there might not be many left in EB3 in 08 , 09 and 10?

[Spectator]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

[suninphx]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

Even if we discount 20% for the factors cited above, and assume a moderate 70:30 EB2:EB3 ratio, the number of potential EB2I 485 applicants for year 2015(only) would be ~50K

[qesehmk]

Pre 07/07 people lucked out - got EADs, pre 04/2010 people lucked out as USCIS over-inventoried and got EADs. Folks who joined after that need a similar lucky break as without EAD, I don't know how people will wait out for 8-10-more years.

True. Here is my view.
Pre 2004 people (both EB2/3) lucked out due to visa recapture.
Pre 2007 EB2 got lucked out due to 2008 economic slow down and got GCs.
Pre 2010 folks at least got EADs during another wave (dont remember the timing).

But the road ahead is terribly tough for EB-India and overall EB category. The first thing that must happen is "Removal of Country Quota" and second thing that must happen is "Lifting or removal of Overall Cap for EB".

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

Thanks Spec. Excellent view of how demand has increased. Indeed barely 20% increase will be due to porting. But overall these are all H1Bs that have now matured and settled in their roles and are applying for GCs.

It is systemic racism to deny these people green cards.

Friends - this whole country cap is "SYSTEMIC RACISM". Lets start calling it that.

[pragmatic]

Hello everyone,

Real story here: After working in India for 3 years in a top company, I came to the US for Masters in a top university. After graduating in 2009, got a job in a top tech smartphone company. Unfortunately they didn't sponsor in EB2 and had to shift to another top tech company in Silicon Valley. And finally had my place in the EB2 line with a priority date of July 2014.

But after working long hours for so many years, I had a burnout and badly needed a break. After lot of contemplation, I finally had the realization that I'll never get a green card with a PD of July 2014.

So I migrated to Australia and now am working as a senior analyst and earning close to what I was in the US. I have the Australian PR (Green Card) and do not have any restrictions in terms of jobs or travel.

I am also starting my own company and it is off to a good start. I hope to make $500,000 within the next 4-5 years and invest that in the US (or move my company to US) and file for my green card in EB5.

I don't see any other alternative.

I urge all my fellow GC hopefuls to be open minded about other countries (or India) and just follow your dream and passion. If you are not happy at your place, just leave that place and find your next destination. Life is too short to waste hoping for a green card, which seems to take eternity at this pace. My personal view is that all the stress of layoffs, lack of promotions, long hours is just not worth it. Life is supposed to be full of happiness and joy, not stress and tension. At least that is my personal view.

Just my two cents. Thanks for reading.

Best of luck!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

True. Here is my view.
Pre 2004 people (both EB2/3) lucked out due to visa recapture.
Pre 2007 EB2 got lucked out due to 2008 economic slow down and got GCs.
Pre 2010 folks at least got EADs during another wave (dont remember the timing).

But the road ahead is terribly tough for EB-India and overall EB category. The first thing that must happen is "Removal of Country Quota" and second thing that must happen is "Lifting or removal of Overall Cap for EB".



Thanks Spec. Excellent view of how demand has increased. Indeed barely 20% increase will be due to porting. But overall these are all H1Bs that have now matured and settled in their roles and are applying for GCs.

It is systemic racism to deny these people green cards.

Friends - this whole country cap is "SYSTEMIC RACISM". Lets start calling it that.

I totally agree. I am one of those EB3 Folks who 'Lucked out'!! Hopefully folks in line will have some luck coming their way this in July.

[gcq]

Hello everyone,

Real story here:

Best of luck!

Congrats on making the bold move. Thanks for sharing your perspective.

[Mohan34689]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

For YR 2009: Since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory, does that mean there are only 4K Eb3-I.

[Jagan01]

I have always been so near but yet so far. Wanted to get inputs from Gurus as to when they think the PD Jan 2009 will be current again.

Am kind of losing hope now. What are others with PD Dec 2008 / Jan 2009 planning? Its so frustrating that CO misallocated some of the visa numbers last year and nothing prohibits him from doing it every year.

After the misallocations from CO, I think its pointless to do any calculations/predictions.

May be this is just some frustration that I am venting on this forum, but its been really a long and endless wait.

[iatiam]

I have always been so near but yet so far. Wanted to get inputs from Gurus as to when they think the PD Jan 2009 will be current again.

Am kind of losing hope now. What are others with PD Dec 2008 / Jan 2009 planning? Its so frustrating that CO misallocated some of the visa numbers last year and nothing prohibits him from doing it every year.

After the misallocations from CO, I think its pointless to do any calculations/predictions.

May be this is just some frustration that I am venting on this forum, but its been really a long and endless wait.

Jagan,

I feel your pain. I am in the same boat, albeit with an Aug 2009 PD. Have you filed for 485?

Iatiam

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

I feel your pain. I am in the same boat, albeit with an Aug 2009 PD. Have you filed for 485?

Iatiam

Filed 485 in 2014. Waiting since then.