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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #2051
    It is an atrocity. Why even have limits if you are going to not stick to it at all. A couple hundred deviation would make some sense but 3K is not an oversight - it a deliberate attempt at making sure EB1 stays C at the cost of EB3I people waiting for ages.
    Quote Originally Posted by amulchandra View Post
    Thank you very much Spec.

    I am having a complete melt down looking at EB3 allocation. Will this atrocity being committed by USCIS ever end?

    At least EB 3 I would have received 2000 more visas and the current date would have been past 2005 March if they did not over allocate EB1 India. I am completely hopeless. USCIS will never learn form its past mistakes.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  2. #2052
    Amul

    These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

    So there is no question of learning from it.

    Quote Originally Posted by amulchandra View Post
    USCIS will never learn form its past mistakes.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  3. #2053
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    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Spec - do you foresee South Korea getting a PD anytime soon? They should be close enough to the 7% limit.
    imdeng,

    No.

    Under the system where the per Country limit is calculated over the sum of FB and EB, South Korea don't even remotely approach it.

    The 7% limit in FY2016 was determined to be 25,644 (see September 2016 VB).

    South Korea used 1,250 FB visas and 13,631 EB visas for a total of 14,881 preference visas. They could have used an additional 10,763 visa before reaching the overall 7% limit.


    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    It is an atrocity. Why even have limits if you are going to not stick to it at all. A couple hundred deviation would make some sense but 3K is not an oversight - it a deliberate attempt at making sure EB1 stays C at the cost of EB3I people waiting for ages.
    imdeng,

    I agree that the overshoot of the EB1 allocation is unforgivable.

    EB1-China and EB1-India were retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2016. Trackitt suggests visas stopped being allocated nearly a month before that.

    Whatever the case, it was clearly far too late and retrogression for China and India in EB1 should have started at least 4 months before the end of the FY. Despite EB1-WW having demand under their allocation, once the overall EB1 limit was reached, CO should have retrogressed the entire category.

    It wasn't rocket science. At no point in the FY was there any prospect of SO to EB1 from EB4 or EB5.

    It makes it even odder that CO said in the March VB that a COD for EB1-IC may not be necessary until August 2017. From the (scant) evidence available, there is no compelling reason to believe that demand has dropped significantly from last year (or at all).
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  4. #2054
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Amul

    These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

    So there is no question of learning from it.
    I am getting very frustrated and restless with July 2006 EB3 I PD. Hoping to see the light at end of the tunnel in the next 10-12 months. This never ending inefficiency in visa allocation by USCIS adds to the long drawn battle and makes it more stressful. Can we write to ombudsman and get an explanation for this?

  5. #2055
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Amul

    These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

    So there is no question of learning from it.

    Can you please elaborate - why would they do this ? Favor EB1C, and be opposed to EB3C ?
    The only reason I can think of is the EB1 WITCH lobbying heavily for EB1.
    Can this fraud not be exposed somehow ?

  6. #2056
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Amul

    These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

    So there is no question of learning from it.

    Can you please elaborate why they would do this ? Favor EB1 and act against EB3C ?
    The only reason that I can think of is the EB1 lobby playing behind the scenes.
    Can we not bring up this point against them somehow ?

  7. #2057
    Quote Originally Posted by amulchandra View Post
    I am getting very frustrated and restless with July 2006 EB3 I PD. Hoping to see the light at end of the tunnel in the next 10-12 months. This never ending inefficiency in visa allocation by USCIS adds to the long drawn battle and makes it more stressful. Can we write to ombudsman and get an explanation for this?
    Unless we do something about it, nothing is going to change. CO continues to marginalize EB3-I. It is high time he is kicked out of his office for his incompetence ! Blame ourselves for not doing anything about it !

  8. #2058
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    Unless we do something about it, nothing is going to change. CO continues to marginalize EB3-I. It is high time he is kicked out of his office for his incompetence ! Blame ourselves for not doing anything about it !
    Did the CO not change with the new Trump administration ?

  9. #2059
    We can only speculate why they do it. But the reason these are not mistakes are 1) They happen time and again. 2) Mistakes imply incompetence. Why would you assume incompetence when on the whole USA is a pretty well run country.

    As per DoS' motivations - it is possible that outsourcing companies and their clients have a larger interest in pushing for EB1-C than EB2/3 simply because the EB2/3 are individuals whereas EB1-C particularly is a manager managing teams of people that are driving economic benefit for American companies. EB2/3 on the other hand is taking away a local job right here.

    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker123 View Post
    Can you please elaborate why they would do this ? Favor EB1 and act against EB3C ?
    The only reason that I can think of is the EB1 lobby playing behind the scenes.
    Can we not bring up this point against them somehow ?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #2060
    Experts, could you briefly explain the over allocation to EB1-I and under allocation to EB3-I. I would like to draft a letter to CO and lawmakers.

  11. #2061
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    FY2016-EB Visa Approvals


    - Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total

    CHINA ----- 6,711 --- 2,837 --- 2,815 ----- 107 -- 7,516 --- 19,986
    INDIA ---- 10,985 --- 3,930 --- 4,617 ----- 720 ---- 149 --- 20,401
    MEXICO ---- 1,720 --- 1,449 --- 2,058 ----- 765 ----- 57 ---- 6,049
    PHIL. ------- 173 --- 1,985 --- 6,579 ----- 164 ----- 16 ---- 8,917
    ROW ------ 24,134 -- 28,910 -- 21,471 --- 8,273 -- 2,209 --- 84,997

    TOTAL ---- 43,723 -- 39,111 -- 37,540 -- 10,029 -- 9,947 -- 140,350



    S. KOREA -- 1,547 --- 5,157 --- 6,153 ----- 514 -----260 --- 13,631




    More detail at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8279#post58279

    Original Data - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...ort-TableV.pdf
    Does Philippines allocation 6579 immigrant visas in EB3 (Table V) inclusive of the data reported in Table VI - 5153? Just want to clarify whether Philippines received a total of 6579 visa in the EB3 category or 11732 visas in 2016?

  12. #2062
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    Quote Originally Posted by maverick23 View Post
    Does Philippines allocation 6579 immigrant visas in EB3 (Table V) inclusive of the data reported in Table VI - 5153? Just want to clarify whether Philippines received a total of 6579 visa in the EB3 category or 11732 visas in 2016?
    Yes, the 5,153 is included in the 6,579.

    Table VI shows visas issued a Consulates only (CP) : Preference Immigrant Visas Issued (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2016

    Table V shows AOS approvals and visa issued via CP : Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State of Chargeability):
    Fiscal Year 2016
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  13. #2063
    In FY 2015, EB2I was over allocated and some 3K GCs were under allocated to EB3I. In FY 2016, the same thing happened with EB1 being over allocated and EB3I missing out on some 2.5KGCs. Even EB2 got some 900 GCs less. In the EB3I category, where people have been waiting for more than a decade, that's a loss of 5.5K GCs over 2 years. Pushes back the wait time by another 2 years if simply going by annual quota.

    There is no doubt that there is huge bias and discrimination going on. Like Spec said, there was no way that EB1 was getting any SO so CO should have immediately stopped issuing visas to EB1 once their 40k was allocated. But in order to keep EB1ROW C, he over allocated them and EB2I to some extend and of course, EB3Is paid the price. In his head, EB1s contribute more to the economy than EB3s, so the discrimination sets in. Also, he may think EB3Is are already waiting for 10+ years - what harm is there is adding 2 more years to the wait.

    I am sure this thing will continue again this year for his zeal to keep EB1 Current as long as he can. His other fascination is to keep EB2ROW at C while giving EB3ROW a cutoff date. And EB3Is will continue to pay the price.

  14. #2064
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    I thought it might be useful to show in a simplified form, who did well and who did not in FY2016, compared to the expected numbers due to retrogression in the categories.

    I've had to make some assumptions, such as assuming that Countries in EB1 received an equal % extra allocation of visa numbers.

    FY2016 Winners and Losers

    EB Allocation - 140,338
    EB Actual ----- 140,350
    Difference --------- 12

    Winners --------- Extra -- % Extra
    EB1-C ----------- 1,216 ---- 27.1%
    EB1-I ----------- 2,370 ---- 27.1%
    EB2-C -------------- 27 ----- 1.0%
    EB2-I ----------- 1,120 ---- 39.9%
    EB3-C ------------- 305 ---- 12.2%
    EB4-ROW ------------ 65 ----- 0.7%
    Total ----------- 5,103

    Losers ----------- Loss ---- % Loss
    EB2-ROW/M/P ---- (2,173) ---- (6.3%)
    EB3-non C ------ (2,901) ---- (7.7%) -- (62.8%) if all visas had been allocated to EB3-I
    EB5-C ------------- (17) ---- (0.2%)
    Total ---------- (5,091)

    Net Win ------------ 12
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  15. #2065

    Angry

    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    In FY 2015, EB2I was over allocated and some 3K GCs were under allocated to EB3I. In FY 2016, the same thing happened with EB1 being over allocated and EB3I missing out on some 2.5KGCs. Even EB2 got some 900 GCs less. In the EB3I category, where people have been waiting for more than a decade, that's a loss of 5.5K GCs over 2 years. Pushes back the wait time by another 2 years if simply going by annual quota.

    There is no doubt that there is huge bias and discrimination going on. Like Spec said, there was no way that EB1 was getting any SO so CO should have immediately stopped issuing visas to EB1 once their 40k was allocated. But in order to keep EB1ROW C, he over allocated them and EB2I to some extend and of course, EB3Is paid the price. In his head, EB1s contribute more to the economy than EB3s, so the discrimination sets in. Also, he may think EB3Is are already waiting for 10+ years - what harm is there is adding 2 more years to the wait.

    I am sure this thing will continue again this year for his zeal to keep EB1 Current as long as he can. His other fascination is to keep EB2ROW at C while giving EB3ROW a cutoff date. And EB3Is will continue to pay the price.
    This is outright blasphemy and CO needs to be sacked right now for doing this. Who gave him the authority to overstep the legal limits. I am disgusted, each year I think this is it and CO deliberately under-allocates to EB3I. What's more no one -not one lawyer firm, not one AILA rep questions him on this. Isnt there anything we can do about this? There has to be something...This has to stop or else Eb3I will suffer this year too. I have waited 11 years so I know 12 wont matter but thats not a valid reason for ME!

  16. #2066
    Looking at the low EB3ROW numbers, I was hoping that EB3I would eventually get some 6k (conservative) to even 10k (optimistic) overall GCs this FY. But what's the point. Even if that happens, CO will probably take away 3k to 5k from EB3 and give it to EB1. EB3I is completely at the mercy at CO and whatever he throws down.

  17. #2067
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Looking at the low EB3ROW numbers, I was hoping that EB3I would eventually get some 6k (conservative) to even 10k (optimistic) overall GCs this FY. But what's the point. Even if that happens, CO will probably take away 3k to 5k from EB3 and give it to EB1. EB3I is completely at the mercy at CO and whatever he throws down.
    is there anyway we can ask why is he doing this when he has the monthly check-ins with AILA? no wonder he doesnt say anything on this category because all he is interested in is giving away visas to other category and then throw down the leftover to EB3I, despite it being above his authority!!

  18. #2068
    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    is there anyway we can ask why is he doing this when he has the monthly check-ins with AILA? no wonder he doesnt say anything on this category because all he is interested in is giving away visas to other category and then throw down the leftover to EB3I, despite it being above his authority!!
    We can do this ourselves. And only we will do. Nobody else cares including **. What can we do next ? Let us comeup with a 'scientific' description and calculation as to how Eb3-I was discriminated against. ( This is not something new, he has done in 2009 as well). Once we have this, we will draft a letter to CO himself and all relevant lawmakers pointing this out. Our calculations should be right so that CO cannot rubbish our claims. Once the letter is ready, let us each send this letter. So please come up with the numbers how we were under allocated and why. My INA reading is a bit old, otherwise I could do that. Gurus please help.

    My memory leads me here.
    EB category has 140K visa per annum. Among these categories visas are equally divided between EB1, EB2 and EB3. So total allocation of each EB1, EB2 and EB3 category should be same. EB1 sees an over allocation in total and EB1-India has over allocation among EB1. Am I right ? Please correct me if I am wrong.

  19. #2069
    Guys - most of you probably may not know this ... but gcq already has received his own GC.

    So it is mighty gracious of him to offer his help.

    My 2 cents are .. don't make it personal to your category or country. Simply make a point - how fair it is for those waiting in GC line in EB category to be discriminated based on the country origin.
    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    We can do this ourselves. And only we will do. Nobody else cares including **. What can we do next ? Let us comeup with a 'scientific' description and calculation as to how Eb3-I was discriminated against. ( This is not something new, he has done in 2009 as well). Once we have this, we will draft a letter to CO himself and all relevant lawmakers pointing this out. Our calculations should be right so that CO cannot rubbish our claims. Once the letter is ready, let us each send this letter. So please come up with the numbers how we were under allocated and why. My INA reading is a bit old, otherwise I could do that. Gurus please help.

    My memory leads me here.
    EB category has 140K visa per annum. Among these categories visas are equally divided between EB1, EB2 and EB3. So total allocation of each EB1, EB2 and EB3 category should be same. EB1 sees an over allocation in total and EB1-India has over allocation among EB1. Am I right ? Please correct me if I am wrong.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #2070

  21. #2071
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Guys - most of you probably may not know this ... but gcq already has received his own GC.

    So it is mighty gracious of him to offer his help.

    My 2 cents are .. don't make it personal to your category or country. Simply make a point - how fair it is for those waiting in GC line in EB category to be discriminated based on the country origin.
    Cannot believe that in this day and age, we have a system where folks are judged and discriminated based on their country of birth. Totally against the basic principal of equality to all.
    Only if Indians could stop their infighting and challenge this in a law of court.

  22. #2072
    January 2017 pending inventory is out:

    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...nuary_2017.pdf

    Version does not include numbers from field offices. Most remain unchanged. The big difference: The EB3ROW pending inventory went up from 9.6k to 15.6k. 2015 saw a huge jump from 455 to 6973. How is this possible with 2015 being current in EB3ROW for so long? Where were all these applicants just 3 months ago??

    Can the gurus explain? Or I am inclined to think the EB3ROW numbers are fake to show that EB3I will not get any SO as those GCs will be siphoned to EB1.

  23. #2073
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    From the latest inventory, they cleaned up cases for EB2-I 2011 and beyond, and for EB3-I from 2008 and beyond.
    There was an addition of 900 cases for EB3-I for PD 2000 (Nov and Dec). Not sure where these cases popped up from.

  24. #2074
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    January 2017 pending inventory is out:

    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...nuary_2017.pdf

    Version does not include numbers from field offices. Most remain unchanged. The big difference: The EB3ROW pending inventory went up from 9.6k to 15.6k. 2015 saw a huge jump from 455 to 6973. How is this possible with 2015 being current in EB3ROW for so long? Where were all these applicants just 3 months ago??

    Can the gurus explain? Or I am inclined to think the EB3ROW numbers are fake to show that EB3I will not get any SO as those GCs will be siphoned to EB1.

    Can this be true ? This is so utterly ridiculous - How can they cheat so blatantly ? Experienced Gurus here - can nothing be done to stop this behavior ?

  25. #2075
    Experts any affect on GC with 28% reduction on DOS budget ?
    Will it help EB2,EB3-I ?
    http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politi...inkId=35543838

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