EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[raj888]

I am no expert, but i can speak from my experience. I was in the same situation as you, a year back.
1) I did not transfer H1 when i switched jobs. Just provided the EAD as work autorization doc for the new job. From my experience, there are no issues with switching on EAD. I dont think you should worry about I140 revoke. Even if your current employer does that, since it is past 6 months after the I140 was approved, it should not impact you. I know there were few cases on trackitt where they got a NOID, but they were able to appeal it and get corrected.
2) refer 1
3) I waited for rfe. my new job title was completely different. the roles and responsibilities were kind of same but not similar. this was not an issue at all. i responded to rfe and the case was approved.
4) dont know
5) It appeared fairly safe to take a better opportunity.

Hi Experts, posting here to get attention, please move after this is answered.

I am a little confused with H1/H4 and EAD/AP status. I was on H1 and my PD became current in Sep 2014. I got EAD/AP then. My PD is Apr 2009 and I got EB3-EB2 upgrade with current employer during I140 which was approved in 2013. My H1 is valid till Nov 29 2016. When I went to India in Dec 2014, I used EAD/AP to reenter in January 2015 and as soon as I came back, I asked my employer to change my I9 to reflect that I am using EAD. So I guess my status is now EAD/AP or AOS. I renewd EAD/AP last year and it is valid till Oct 2017. Given this scenario, I have a full time offer which has the job duties matching to an extent and I have a few questions.

1. Is it a safer option to transfer on H1, so that I have H1 status if my current employer revokes I-140 and I get NOID. Since my I485 was filed in Sep 2014, I have been with the company more than 2 years since filing I485.
2. Can I move on just EAD/AP. If the current company revokes I140, would I get a NOID?
3. If I move on EAD/AP, should I file AC21, or wait till I get an RFE?
4. If I move on EAD/AP right now, can I transfer H1 later on because my new company wants me to join by October 31 to be eligible for bonus. Since my H1 is there till Nov 29, can I join and transfer later on?
5. Do I need to be aware of anything else? Am I missing anything. I didn't change company for more than 4 years with these fears but this is a very good opportunity.

[tenyearsgone]

I used EAD/AP to reenter in January 2015 and as soon as I came back, I asked my employer to change my I9 to reflect that I am using EAD. So I guess my status is now EAD/AP or AOS. I renewed EAD/AP last year and it is valid till Oct 2017.

AFAIK, Once you filled an I-9 to work on EAD, you cannot switch back to H1B just by renewing/transferring your H1. You'll get a H1B approval without an I-94. To get back on to a H1B status you would have to travel outside the country and get a H1B stamping.

1. It is safer .. though not necessarily for the reasons you've stated. The biggest risk I see with EAD is the renewal process - no premium processing, you've to stop working the day the EAD expires and RFEs can really delay the renewal. There are quite a few trackitt threads complaining of delay and having to quit/take a break from work as a result.
2. Yes. This seems to be quite rare and can be handled via the appeals.
3. Your call. If you anticipate your date to be current within a year, then I suggest filing AC21. You'll get an RFE in any case for medicals.
4. Yes, you can transfer H1 later. It'll come without a I-94 anyways and you can keep it as a backup option to be activated if needed.
5. Take the opportunity. You have a fallback with your H1 since you are on EAD. I think you have another 2 years to go to get your GC. Don't skip opportunities for GC.

**Please consult with an attorney. My suggestions above are not professional opinions.**

[GCwaiting]

YT, Spec ... other gurus
How does 2017 look for India EB3? What is your prediction here?
When do you think March 2005 will be cleared?

[bluelabel]

Looks like there are no spill overs from FB.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...cal_Limits.pdf

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looks like there are no spill overs from FB.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...cal_Limits.pdf

It is interesting that just when GC wastage in the EB category over the years was released by Ombudsman in 2010 and Indians started making a fuss about it since they are the ones most affected by the wastage, FB spillover to EB started drying up.

[bikenlalan]

Source Oh law,
AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin for the Future

EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal year for Worldwide as well as India and China.
India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later than March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date may move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no prediction for EB-2 Filing Date Chart for India EB-2 which a large number of EB-2 Indians are waiting for to file I-485 applications.
China EB-2: Likely to reach September 2012 no later than February 2017. Depending on the EB-3 demand, EB-2 China may advance more rapidly.
Worldwide EB-2: Likely remain "current."
EB-3 Philippines: Final action date may be able to advance as much as several months at a time hopefully.
EB-4 for India and Mexico : Likely remain "currnet."
EB-4 El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras: Any forward movement in the final action date will be slow.

[vishnu]

has anyone applied (and received) for an H4 EAD while already in receipt of an 485/AOS EAD...

the idea would be for the H4 holder to use the H4/EAD and remain on H4 status (assuming primary remains on H1) rather than AOS...

some lawyers say that USCIS will not issue the H4 EAD if they know there is ample validity on the AOS EAD but I think that could be incorrect...

[bloddy1]

This questions may have been answered but given the consequences would like to pose it again.

1. I'm currently in-line with a PD of June 2010 and approved I140
2. Offered a new position with slightly higher roles & responsibility but similar (Manager Technical to Sr. Mgr Business)
3. If I were to take the new position, would I be able file for and port my PD (however bad that PD is)
4. Any suggestions as to can it go horribly wrong that I'm pushed back out ?

Thanks

[srimurthy]

One question on H4 EAD.
While waiting for the dates to become current with an approved I-140, in case I do a H1 transfer to a different company does the H4 EAD stays valid or not? As we would be getting new H1 and H4? Or should we also file for a new H4 EAD?

[raj888]

This questions may have been answered but given the consequences would like to pose it again.

1. I'm currently in-line with a PD of June 2010 and approved I140
2. Offered a new position with slightly higher roles & responsibility but similar (Manager Technical to Sr. Mgr Business)
3. If I were to take the new position, would I be able file for and port my PD (however bad that PD is)
4. Any suggestions as to can it go horribly wrong that I'm pushed back out ?

Thanks

From my experience,

Yes, you can port. I went through this excercise in 2011 and I don't think things can go more wrong than below

1) Within 2 months after I changed jobs, my PD became current in 2011
2) However, i had to wait for labor approval, which took a long time, and then it went into audit. And then guess what , the labor got denied.
3) Applied labor again and got it approved this time. Got current again in 2014 Aug. By this time labor and 140 was approved with new employer.so could file for 485. finally got GC in Apr 2016.

In the hindsight, had I not changed jobs in 2011, would have received EAD and could have changed jobs after that. But I got a very good opportunity so do not repent now.

[bloddy1]

Thanks Raj, That makes sense. I may end up in a similar situation, if things go into fantastic land after elections, but if it means I'm making decisions independent of the immigration process, it's almost a win however minor it may be.

A couple of questions;
1. Was moving your job or labor any way influenced for labor getting denied/audited?
2. Did you have to go through an evaluation of job descriptions, etc., or anything of that sort or is it like to like compare.
3. And anything you would suggest to look out for during this process?

From my experience,

Yes, you can port. I went through this excercise in 2011 and I don't think things can go more wrong than below

1) Within 2 months after I changed jobs, my PD became current in 2011
2) However, i had to wait for labor approval, which took a long time, and then it went into audit. And then guess what , the labor got denied.
3) Applied labor again and got it approved this time. Got current again in 2014 Aug. By this time labor and 140 was approved with new employer.so could file for 485. finally got GC in Apr 2016.

In the hindsight, had I not changed jobs in 2011, would have received EAD and could have changed jobs after that. But I got a very good opportunity so do not repent now.

[incredible]

Hi All
Please move this to appropriate thread. We are on EAD/AP and do not have any Visa (like H or L etc.). We are planning to visit Cozumel in Mexico along with Caymen Islands in December. Can we visit these places while on AP without any issue? Has anyone done it recently.
Please provide details if you can? All the consulate websites does not mention about EAD/AP situation.

[Umesh1209]

Hi incredible - I assume you are visiting these places in a cruise. If so, I did visit these places(I am on EAD / AP, no H1 or L1) last November and there were no issues. You may want to ensure that you are not staying in one country for more than one day. I believe that there are some restrictions. Enjoy your trip !!

[incredible]

Thanks for your quick reply. Much appreciated.

[mrperfect]

Dec Visa Bulletin is Out : EB2 India FAD moves 3 months: https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...mber-2016.html

[mknop1]

What do the experts such as spec, q and others think about the Trump presidency and its impact on eb category folks from India ?

[kingjeremy]

Hi incredible - I assume you are visiting these places in a cruise. If so, I did visit these places(I am on EAD / AP, no H1 or L1) last November and there were no issues. You may want to ensure that you are not staying in one country for more than one day. I believe that there are some restrictions. Enjoy your trip !!

You will need a Mexican tourist visa. EAD/AP alone will not qualify as an entry permit. It's pretty easy to get that visa specially at the NY consulate.

[iatiam]

Spec,

Specific question for you. You had indicated in a previous post of your about the EB4 visa SO to EB2I and the impact of the child migrant crisis. I looked at the Wikipedia page and found this,

Attachment 1104

The numbers are startling to say the least. Last year itself it was about 8,739 which would have been taken from EB4 bucket which explains why there was no SO to EB2I from EB4 quota.

Given the reduction of migrants from south of the border, do you expect these numbers to come down dramatically and helping forward movement of EB2I this year.

Regards

Iatiam

[Jonty Rhodes]

What do the experts such as spec, q and others think about the Trump presidency and its impact on eb category folks from India ?

I am no expert like Q or Spec but in my opinion, no one really knows what would be the final action plan. It is expected that he would crackdown hard on illegal immigrations and majority of his administration's concentration will be directed towards this agenda. As far as legal immigration is concerned, I don't see anything changing significantly on EB front. There would probably be H1B and L1 reforms. I can only hope that with L1 reform, EB1C loophole will be closed although it depends on what kind of provisions are there in L1 reform. As far as H1B reforms are concerned, it is mostly aimed at targeting outsourcing companies where it would have reforms on rising H1B worker wages and restrictions on hiring H1B workers before American workers. This would impact lot of people especially those who are not making six figure salaries.

Again, this is all mere speculation. What he and Congress would do in reality, no one knows and till that point no one knows who is safe. But my expectation is that at the most, he will reform H1B-L1 visas and won't do anything else about legal immigration.

[meragc]

hello gurus,
looking for some general advice and info for switching jobs on EAD. i am in my 3rd year of ead(EB2 PD Feb 2009) and not sure how long it will be before the GC arrives.
wanted to know about switching jobs on EAD, how the process works, how long it takes, how much does it cost, risk involved in filing ac21 etc, if the new job is similar to the one with my current employer?

[self.coach]

Folks, the i140 EAD rule is out (RIN1615-AC05)! Retention of Eb-1, EB-2, EB-3 Immigrant workers and program improvements affecting high skilled nonimmigrant workers:

Unpublished version can be downloaded here: https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-insp...2016-27540.pdf
Announcement can be found here: https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...g-high-skilled

It is a long document and needs to be vetted out for impacts on our lives.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Specific question for you. You had indicated in a previous post of your about the EB4 visa SO to EB2I and the impact of the child migrant crisis. I looked at the Wikipedia page and found this,

Attachment 1104

The numbers are startling to say the least. Last year itself it was about 8,739 which would have been taken from EB4 bucket which explains why there was no SO to EB2I from EB4 quota.

Given the reduction of migrants from south of the border, do you expect these numbers to come down dramatically and helping forward movement of EB2I this year.

Regards

Iatiam

Iatiam,

In a word, NO.

The figures above are those published by USCIS. You can find an update until the end of Q3 FY2016 here.

To summarize that, for Q1-Q3 FY 2016, there were:

Petitions Received : 14,562
Petitions Approved: 10,552
Petitions Denied: 449
Petitions Pending: 8,044

The numbers are still increasing.

CO said even before FY2017 began, that EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA & HONDURAS would start with a 2015 FAD and only progress very slowly through FY2017. They are currently at 15JUL15 and have moved forward 1 month so far. In the December 2016 VB, MEXICO have also joined those Countries at that date in EB4.

In the December 2016 VB, CO said this:

D. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE MEXICO EMPLOYMENT-BASED FOURTH (E4) AND CERTAIN RELIGIOUS WORKERS (SR) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

There continues to be high demand in the E4 and SR categories, primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Therefore, it has been necessary to impose Mexico E4 and SR Final Action Dates in an attempt to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2017 annual limits.

I wouldn't want to speculate beyond FY2017, but my understanding is that it is a long and convoluted process through the court system to get to the stage where an EB4 application could be submitted. The numbers are such that it is quite probable that there remains a considerable backlog in the court system.

[arnab221]

Hello Gurus ,

Could some of you please help me out here ?

I have my consular interview scheduled during Dec 2016 at Mumbai Consulate in EB2 category.I am based out of India for the past 6 years(So no W2s). I do not and have never in the past worked for the Immigrant visa sponsor employer. The work that I do now for my present employer in India is very every similar to the role I am being hired for by the US employer. They are unrelated organisations. I have W2's from prior to 2011 when I was in US. I have valid Income tax returns from 2011 to 2016 as per Indian Govt norms.

The fact that I do not work in US currently on an H1B/L1 (unlike the overwhelming majority) and hence do not have W2 be a problem in the interview ? Barring this document/s I have all the documents that have been specified for the interview. All my documents were sent to the NVC and have been vetted by the NVC in the documentation phase and cleared before the interview was scheduled.

Also can someone provide their experience during the consular interview and what questions they might ask especially in my scenario where I am not working in the US and returning from US for the interview.

[nbk1976]

Regarding the new "automatic" extension rule for EAD-renewal (that are pending for 90-days),---how will this automatic extension happen?

Are we to receive an "interim card"? How shall we have to prove to our employers that we are authorized to work?

Also, will this apply to AP as well?

[arnab221]

Hello Gurus ,

Could some of you please help me out here ?

I have my consular interview scheduled during Dec 2016 at Mumbai Consulate in EB2 category.I am based out of India for the past 6 years(So no W2s). I do not and have never in the past worked for the Immigrant visa sponsor employer. The work that I do now for my present employer in India is very every similar to the role I am being hired for by the US employer. They are unrelated organisations. I have W2's from prior to 2011 when I was in US. I have valid Income tax returns from 2011 to 2016 as per Indian Govt norms.

The fact that I do not work in US currently on an H1B/L1 (unlike the overwhelming majority) and hence do not have W2 be a problem in the interview ? Barring this document/s I have all the documents that have been specified for the interview. All my documents were sent to the NVC and have been vetted by the NVC in the documentation phase and cleared before the interview was scheduled.

Also can someone provide their experience during the consular interview and what questions they might ask especially in my scenario where I am not working in the US and returning from US for the interview.

Can someone come up with any responses ? Are 100% of the posters in the 485 bucket ? I also find very little information elsewhere . Most NVC folks are marriage based.