EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Raj0687]

I was talking to this person from EB2I, pd late 2009 and has EAD since 2012, at times when the filing date was first introduced.
He doesn't like that rule and don't want to allow filing AOS when there are no sufficient visas left. He argues that waiting on EAD is pain, already enough people waiting on EAD why new and it will increase the rate of porting etc.
Then the conversation was over, we left.

Later it was running thru my mind quiet some time, it then appeared to me that, its not just people who got GC doesn't like those waiting.
Its the every level up doesn't like all the levels below.

citizen doesn't like GC, GC doesn't like EAD, EAD doesn't like H1, H1 doesn't like the ones trying to come here.

[EB3Iwaiting]

citizen doesn't like GC, GC doesn't like EAD, EAD doesn't like H1, H1 doesn't like the ones trying to come here.

You can add EB2s don't like EB3s porting and EB1Cs. EB3s do not like the change in spillover law. Also, many H1Bs still oppose H4 EAD as they think that more IT professionals will flood the market and lower their wages. They are no different from the SaveJobsUSA people who filed a lawsuit against H4 EAD.

It is hard enough to bring about reform even with a united front. With no unity, no wonder we are in this mess with no light at the end of the tunnel.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Please do not generalize, only the insecure ones do not like the progress of other people, they are enough talented and kind Indians who are willing to help. On this forum, Q & Spec are prime examples.
I know there is lot of frustration out there because on non-movement, but I think this is not the right forum to vent it out. This is where people ask for help and suggestions. I have changed my thinking about immigration by following this forum and moving on with my life and career. Good luck to all.

[qesehmk]

Prabhas - you are 100% right and the other guy is 100% wrong and selfish. Forget him. He is not worth your time.

Guys!

I just wanted to vent out my frustration and this is one of the place where I can find some like-minded people.

I was on a good trip to Smoky Mountains this weekend as my kids had a fall recess and we were joined by few other family friends. One of the family recently got greened and they had to go through a lot of hurdles porting from EB3 to EB2 but finally it was a story that ended well.

I was very happy for this guy and congratulated him and as we spoke the topic went on to the current backlogs and extreme wait times that India is currently facing. I went on to say that there should be a congressional change to the current law, remove the existing per country limits, stop calculating dependents towards the GC count, recapture the lost visas etc and surprisingly this guy took a huge exception on these and he said the per country limits should NOT be removed because all other countries will be back logged if the govt makes this change and so instead all the Indians and Chinese waiting in this back log should be given I-140/EAD and they have to wait for their turn.

I debated with him and said that resolves only part of the problem and one should really think about the extreme difficulties people waiting for GC will have to go through, especially their kids who age out due to this non-functional system in place. I also argued that the current system was originally set for the Family based immigration and they just passed on the same rules to EB category and no serious thought was given to it. Also we are not trying to jam the system right away but do it in such a way that 15% of the visas will be allocated to the extremely backlogged countries first and then eventually make the system FIFO. At one point this guy said USA laws are very well set and they don’t discriminate at all and this country limit is set to give other countries a fair chance and diversity in immigration. He also went on say ‘ If the per country limits are removed there will be one other country but only India who will be jamming these categories and USA will soon be overcrowded with Indians’. His tone really sounded as if his skin turned ‘non-Indian’ the moment he got his Green-card. At that point I felt like he should have really been denied a GC from eb2 and made to wait in EB3 (I empathize with EB3 folks) to really feel the struggle from a GC wait. He didn’t seem to really understand the pain he went through during his porting when he really vented out his frustration on various occasions.

I was really at loss for words when this guy started talking against these initiatives and honestly it made me feel that our community is at a serious identity crisis.

So guys my question is – Are we really taking away the diversity of the EB category by this push to remove country limits? I don’t think so because H1-B is a dual intent visa and DOS/USCIS knows 90% of the visas come from India and even if 30% of them decide to stay back that will clog the EB category. They should seriously do something about it.This is really causing a divide within ourselves. Also the immigration influx we are seeing now from Asia is far less than the mass immigration that occurred during the 1930-1970s from Europe. Folks who have a similar impression as my friend , hope they realize it.

V

Raj - that's actually a very good observation. Unfortunately it is true but the only way to change this is start with "ME"! That's all you and I can do.

I was talking to this person from EB2I, pd late 2009 and has EAD since 2012, at times when the filing date was first introduced.
He doesn't like that rule and don't want to allow filing AOS when there are no sufficient visas left. He argues that waiting on EAD is pain, already enough people waiting on EAD why new and it will increase the rate of porting etc.
Then the conversation was over, we left.

Later it was running thru my mind quiet some time, it then appeared to me that, its not just people who got GC doesn't like those waiting.
Its the every level up doesn't like all the levels below.

citizen doesn't like GC, GC doesn't like EAD, EAD doesn't like H1, H1 doesn't like the ones trying to come here.

I have changed my thinking about immigration by following this forum and moving on with my life and career. Good luck to all.

Shekhar - you did the right thing. 10 years is huge amount of time in our lives. The most beautiful time when our children are growing up ... we have all the energy .. come 40 the children will be near high school age .. the health numbers start moving .. parents not doing too well ... god forbid there are worse things too. So don't let the GC ruin your life. I have come to the conclusion that anybody over 30 years and just starting GC in EB23 India category is in a lot of pain and wait that it is not going to be worth it at the end of the day. Unfortunately all this advocacy is proven BS (just as I have always been predicting). The only way forward is a lawsuit. But even the intelligent people don't seem to get it.

Anyway ... that is my Wednesday afternoon rant.

[nbk1976]

Prabhas - you are 100% right and the other guy is 100% wrong and selfish. Forget him. He is not worth your time.

Raj - that's actually a very good observation. Unfortunately it is true but the only way to change this is start with "ME"! That's all you and I can do.



Shekhar - you did the right thing. 10 years is huge amount of time in our lives. The most beautiful time when our children are growing up ... we have all the energy .. come 40 the children will be near high school age .. the health numbers start moving .. parents not doing too well ... god forbid there are worse things too. So don't let the GC ruin your life. I have come to the conclusion that anybody over 30 years and just starting GC in EB23 India category is in a lot of pain and wait that it is not going to be worth it at the end of the day. Unfortunately all this advocacy is proven BS (just as I have always been predicting). The only way forward is a lawsuit. But even the intelligent people don't seem to get it.

Anyway ... that is my Wednesday afternoon rant.

When the I-140 (Immigrant Petition) is approved, it should have some meaning. Never in any country do they approve your immigration petition and refuse to give you even basic benefits of being an immigrant--right to work. The whole "adjustment of status" is absolute bureaucratic nonsense. A visa number should be assigned as soon as the I-140 is approved. If no visa number is available, why even "approve" it? This three-tiered system (PERM/I-140/I-485) is just bullshit.

The theoretical purpose of EB immigration is to allow foreign workers with the right skills that are in short supply to take up jobs. If most of those skills seems to come from country A or B how does it matter? There is no reason why diversity should be part of any EB immigration. In any case, your relative is either uninformed or as not given much thought to about these things.

[EB3Iwaiting]

When the I-140 (Immigrant Petition) is approved, it should have some meaning. Never in any country do they approve your immigration petition and refuse to give you even basic benefits of being an immigrant--right to work. The whole "adjustment of status" is absolute bureaucratic nonsense. A visa number should be assigned as soon as the I-140 is approved. If no visa number is available, why even "approve" it? This three-tiered system (PERM/I-140/I-485) is just bullshit.

The theoretical purpose of EB immigration is to allow foreign workers with the right skills that are in short supply to take up jobs. If most of those skills seems to come from country A or B how does it matter? There is no reason why diversity should be part of any EB immigration. In any case, your relative is either uninformed or as not given much thought to about these things.

I think there are two points that most people miss in this conversation when they say "If country cap goes away, Indians will fill up this country and this will become another India".

One - If someone has PERM and I-140 approved, they have already proven that no American was found to do their job and the company needs their skills and can pay the salary which is why they sponsored the GC in the first place. What does country of birth have to do this? If they want diversity, they have the FB quota which is a lot higher than the EB quota. Heck, they have a separate DV lottery quota simply to increase diversity. Why does EB GC which is skills based need to be based on diversity too?

Two- EB GCs only make up for 14% of the entire yearly quota. How can only 14% of the yearly quota which is dominated by Indians can make Indians fill up this country? People easily forget about the other 86% as they do not directly compete with us - that's the real reason. Finally, if they are worried about Indians filling up, its already happening. Unlike FB quota or DV quota, they are already here, already a part of society. They simply want you to pay taxes, contribute to their Social Security and Medicare but do not want to give you any rights.

Racism is alive and well in the US my friend. They simply re-branded it, now they call it "Diversity". US is the only developed country in the world that takes in more low skilled immigrants than high skilled immigrants as they keep the high skilled on unending visas. It is the only country which gives more importance to a 50 year old sibling of an American than a recent US STEM grad simply because he was born in a certain country. Who do you think will eventually contribute more to society?

All in the name of diversity and "family unity".

[gcq]

Racism is alive and well in the US my friend. They simply re-branded it, now they call it "Diversity".

All in the name of diversity and "family unity".

Yes that summarizes it.

Also take a look at 1965 INA which introduced country cap. What was before it ? even worse --

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigr...ty_Act_of_1965

Previous laws restricted immigration from Asia and Africa while it gave preference to northern and western Europeans over southern and eastern Europeans.

So the general intent of people here is clear. Today we see remnants of this in lawmakers like Grassley and King of IOWA.

[nbk1976]

When the I-140 (Immigrant Petition) is approved, it should have some meaning. Never in any country do they approve your immigration petition and refuse to give you even basic benefits of being an immigrant--right to work. The whole "adjustment of status" is absolute bureaucratic nonsense. A visa number should be assigned as soon as the I-140 is approved. If no visa number is available, why even "approve" it? This three-tiered system (PERM/I-140/I-485) is just bullshit.

The theoretical purpose of EB immigration is to allow foreign workers with the right skills that are in short supply to take up jobs. If most of those skills seems to come from country A or B how does it matter? There is no reason why diversity should be part of any EB immigration. In any case, your relative is either uninformed or as not given much thought to about these things.

Here is an article on wait time for EB2/3 India: http://immigrationgirl.com/what-is-t...ia-82-5-years/

[Jonty Rhodes]

Here is an article on wait time for EB2/3 India: http://immigrationgirl.com/what-is-t...ia-82-5-years/

Yes, true. But that's if nothing would happen. If CIR or piecemeal reform happens, all this backlog will be wiped out in few months following reforms. But unless they change the visa numbers, the backlog will start again once the effect of reform wanes.

Regarding Q's comment, advocacy/lobbying works. But it can work only when things are favorable for that particular cause. Advocacy or lobbying can facilitate the change. It can never bring the change itself. I will just give you few simple examples. Pakistan spends millions of dollars on capitol hill for lobbying for their interests including getting military aid and weapons, but recently US denied them the F-16s that they were going to give them at discounted prices. Look at example of Saudi Arabia. They are the highest spenders of lobbying money in US but still a law was passed almost unanimously that families of 9/11 victims can sue Saudi Arabia despite that legislation receiving a Presidential veto earlier. They had spent millions of dollars in lobbying to block it for last 1 year. India also spends a lot of money in lobbying in US. But 20 years before, we were not getting results that we wanted because environment was not favorable towards India. Today, US is one of the closest ally of India and environment is favorable for India. So things are moving at a rapid pace and that is why lobbying money spent by India is bringing benefits for the same reason.

The conclusion from these examples is, when there is not a favorable environment for your purpose, it doesn't matter how much money you spent on lobbying or advocacy, things won't move in Washington. But when there is a favorable environment, money spent in lobbying is worth it because it will really help to move things fast.

I believe if Donald Trump loses the election badly and gets even worse vote percentage of minority, Hispanic and immigrant than Mitt Romney (which appears likely), then you will see some momentum towards bringing immigration reform of some sorts even from the GOP. Whether it will be CIR or piecemeal, is tough to say. But things will move for sure. That will be the right time to move in with full force with whatever we have including lobbying, advocacy, petitions, rallies, letters, campagins etc. because window of those kinds of opportunities is usually very narrow. Till that point, we should not sit tight and keep doing whatever we can but there won't be any real movement.

[ashu51]

Immigration Girl is wrong in estimating 82.5 years wait for EB2I candidates. It has not looked at working years of individuals, since Green Card application is for future employment. It is unlikely that any of the candidates will have Job Offers after 80 years of wait. Actual wait will be a lot smaller than 82.5 years for EB2I Candidates waiting for approval. I think immigration girl should be more responsible and stop peddling misleading information.

[Prabhas]

Thanks Q! It was indeed an unnecessary discussion with a novice guy who doesnt understand the whole issue.

So, after yesterday night debate, even though Trump seemed to have had a better day, that wasnt enough to do the damage control. So unless there is some sort a big October surprise, HRC and Dems chances look more promising for holding the oval office the third term as well. Do you guys see any chances of an immigration bill happening? HRC said she will bring /initiate a comprehensive bill in the first 100 days.

I missed an EAD by two months during the last intake.. I read kathopanishad whenever I feel pinched by these wait times

V

[Jagan01]

Thanks Q! It was indeed an unnecessary discussion with a novice guy who doesnt understand the whole issue.

So, after yesterday night debate, even though Trump seemed to have had a better day, that wasnt enough to do the damage control. So unless there is some sort a big October surprise, HRC and Dems chances look more promising for holding the oval office the third term as well. Do you guys see any chances of an immigration bill happening? HRC said she will bring /initiate a comprehensive bill in the first 100 days.

I missed an EAD by two months during the last intake.. I read kathopanishad whenever I feel pinched by these wait times

V

HRC won't have house control. So chances if any new bill being passed are zero.

I also believe that dems don't want anything done for immigration. Obama promised a lot and had both democratic controlled house and senate for first term. Yet he did not pass any immigration bill. Have you wondered why ?

[idiotic]

HRC won't have house control. So chances if any new bill being passed are zero.

I also believe that dems don't want anything done for immigration. Obama promised a lot and had both democratic controlled house and senate for first term. Yet he did not pass any immigration bill. Have you wondered why ?

True and I do agree with what your are saying. But I hope that since this election is fought on immigration, both sides want to put this issue away after close to 30 years and will find some compromise next year.

[Jagan01]

True and I do agree with what your are saying. But I hope that since this election is fought on immigration, both sides want to put this issue away after close to 30 years and will find some compromise next year.

We may hope as much as we wish. The reality does not change. If at all anything has a bleak chance, then it is LEGAL immigration, and that too under REPUBLICANS.

- Bush administration passed the rule of allowing the retention of PD and PD stays with candidate/employee ( a lot of the people are able to change jobs because of that rule)
- Bush administration pushed the DoS to make the dates current, thereby making everyone get EAD/AP
- Reagan did the last amnesty. Again republican.

What have Jimmy Carter/ Bill Clinton/ Obama done for immigration? Obama did some executive orders but we all know executive orders can be repealed easily.

[axecapone]

We may hope as much as we wish. The reality does not change. If at all anything has a bleak chance, then it is LEGAL immigration, and that too under REPUBLICANS.

- Bush administration passed the rule of allowing the retention of PD and PD stays with candidate/employee ( a lot of the people are able to change jobs because of that rule)
- Bush administration pushed the DoS to make the dates current, thereby making everyone get EAD/AP
- Reagan did the last amnesty. Again republican.

What have Jimmy Carter/ Bill Clinton/ Obama done for immigration? Obama did some executive orders but we all know executive orders can be repealed easily.

I cannot agree with Jagan more. Democrats are all talk and if they do anything, its only for the undocumented immigrants. Expect nothing from Hillary Clinton: She will want amnesty for undocumented immigrants even if its at the cost of legal immigration reform.

[axecapone]

Please do not generalize, only the insecure ones do not like the progress of other people, they are enough talented and kind Indians who are willing to help. On this forum, Q & Spec are prime examples.
I know there is lot of frustration out there because on non-movement, but I think this is not the right forum to vent it out. This is where people ask for help and suggestions. I have changed my thinking about immigration by following this forum and moving on with my life and career. Good luck to all.

No disrespect to the people of this forum. I agree that Q and other folks here have been great contributors. Apologies if I came across that way.

[idiotic]

I cannot agree with Jagan more. Democrats are all talk and if they do anything, its only for the undocumented immigrants. Expect nothing from Hillary Clinton: She will want amnesty for undocumented immigrants even if its at the cost of legal immigration reform.

Republican majority plan for fixing immigration. Can you please tell me how it will help backlogged candidates.

http://www.sessions.senate.gov/publi...h-congress.pdf

I am just hopeful that immigration system will be revamped to address today's pain points including illegal and legal. I hope it happens in next congress only if democrats win senate and white house. There is small minority (freedom caucus) which will be against but they will be silenced next year.

[Jagan01]

Republican majority plan for fixing immigration. Can you please tell me how it will help backlogged candidates.

http://www.sessions.senate.gov/publi...h-congress.pdf

I am just hopeful that immigration system will be revamped to address today's pain points including illegal and legal. I hope it happens in next congress only if democrats win senate and white house. There is small minority (freedom caucus) which will be against but they will be silenced next year.

You cannot point to one extreme right politician and use his stance as the stance of Republicans.

It is simple. Republicans DID things for immigrants and I have provided you a list. Dems did NOTHING for immigration.

Also, I would encourage you to look at the 2013 immigration bill introduced by the gang of eight. You would notice that all amendments in favor of legal immigration were introduced by Republicans like Sen Orin Hatch, etc.

Republicans even said that the "Diversity" visa needs to be scrapped and in turn, those visas need to be converted to a merit-based system (Employment based system effectively).

Having said that, I totally agree that Trump would not bring any relief to legal immigrants and neither would HRC. Basically, this election is irrelevant to the legal immigrant community.

[qesehmk]

Do you guys see any chances of an immigration bill happening? HRC said she will bring /initiate a comprehensive bill in the first 100 days.

My 2 cents are .. it doesn't matter who is in Oval office.

What have Jimmy Carter/ Bill Clinton/ Obama done for immigration? Obama did some executive orders but we all know executive orders can be repealed easily.

Carter was irrelevant. Immigration was not an issue. Clinton I believe did AC21 ... big deal!! Obama ... didn't he propose executive action only to be shot down by republicans and some texas court?

Basically, this election is irrelevant to the legal immigrant community.

AMEN. That's what people should understand. No politician really cares about H1 folks. Rather they are vested in making sure that H1 slavery goes on. Friends this is no different that the cotton economics slavery in south in 18th and 19th century.

[idiotic]

You cannot point to one extreme right politician and use his stance as the stance of Republicans.

It is simple. Republicans DID things for immigrants and I have provided you a list. Dems did NOTHING for immigration.

Also, I would encourage you to look at the 2013 immigration bill introduced by the gang of eight. You would notice that all amendments in favor of legal immigration were introduced by Republicans like Sen Orin Hatch, etc.

Republicans even said that the "Diversity" visa needs to be scrapped and in turn, those visas need to be converted to a merit-based system (Employment based system effectively).

Having said that, I totally agree that Trump would not bring any relief to legal immigrants and neither would HRC. Basically, this election is irrelevant to the legal immigrant community.

He is the head of immigration subcommittee in senate judiciary committee when republicans are in power.
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/abo...es#immigration

I am not blaming all republicans but I dont want to claim that they are the saviorus of legal immigration. That is just a cover for their anti immigrant stance.

Gang of 8 bill was not taken to house floor because of republican freedom caucus in house. Its a well known fact.

I hope that extreme right wing will be silenced by the other pro immigration reform forces in next congress.

[gcq]

There was a time where GOP could do something for legal immigration. Not because they care for us, but they care for business. Now the situation has changed. Tea Party and Anti-immigrants like Grassley and King controls GOP. Many of the well meaning GOP lawmakers are not willing to take up immigration because anti-immigrant lobby lead by these lawmakers will pour in money to defeat the lawmakers. GOP will not win white house for foreseeable future because of these guys.

[EB3Iwaiting]

S. Korea is dominating ROW. This month they have surpassed China. Unfortunately, their overall numbers across are well below 7% to be considered as a separate country. So, they can continue to dominate ROW.

Also, unless USCIS is going back to the 3 times a year inventory release, the July one is really late. Almost time for the October one to come out. Maybe, they won't even release it anymore. Its not like they have any accountability.

[anuprab]

S. Korea is dominating ROW. This month they have surpassed China. Unfortunately, their overall numbers across are well below 7% to be considered as a separate country. So, they can continue to dominate ROW.

Also, unless USCIS is going back to the 3 times a year inventory release, the July one is really late. Almost time for the October one to come out. Maybe, they won't even release it anymore. Its not like they have any accountability.

just one word - SICK

[srimurthy]

just one word - SICK

Nov visa bulletin is out...
https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...mber-2016.html

[saagar_is_cool]

Hi Experts, posting here to get attention, please move after this is answered.

I am a little confused with H1/H4 and EAD/AP status. I was on H1 and my PD became current in Sep 2014. I got EAD/AP then. My PD is Apr 2009 and I got EB3-EB2 upgrade with current employer during I140 which was approved in 2013. My H1 is valid till Nov 29 2016. When I went to India in Dec 2014, I used EAD/AP to reenter in January 2015 and as soon as I came back, I asked my employer to change my I9 to reflect that I am using EAD. So I guess my status is now EAD/AP or AOS. I renewd EAD/AP last year and it is valid till Oct 2017. Given this scenario, I have a full time offer which has the job duties matching to an extent and I have a few questions.

1. Is it a safer option to transfer on H1, so that I have H1 status if my current employer revokes I-140 and I get NOID. Since my I485 was filed in Sep 2014, I have been with the company more than 2 years since filing I485.
2. Can I move on just EAD/AP. If the current company revokes I140, would I get a NOID?
3. If I move on EAD/AP, should I file AC21, or wait till I get an RFE?
4. If I move on EAD/AP right now, can I transfer H1 later on because my new company wants me to join by October 31 to be eligible for bonus. Since my H1 is there till Nov 29, can I join and transfer later on?
5. Do I need to be aware of anything else? Am I missing anything. I didn't change company for more than 4 years with these fears but this is a very good opportunity.