Spec,
From where can I pick up the EB1C(India) allocation for last 4-5 FYs. I think about time that more attention is needed towards QA/Developer turned international managers.
TIA.
Need Stats on Eb1C
Spec,
From where can I pick up the EB1C(India) allocation for last 4-5 FYs. I think about time that more attention is needed towards QA/Developer turned international managers.
TIA.
Guys - there is not much to say really. This is an old rinse and repeat process that DoS & other govt. agencies are orchestrating. They have done everything in their power to stop EB-I backlogged folks from benefiting from any possible spillover. Initially it was blatant - the spillovers were applied vertically. When the courts told them to apply them horizontally -- then the agencies cleared backlogs for EB1 EB2 across 485 140 and then PERM. Now a days the same process is going on except in EB3 ROW.
Add to all this - the fact that the economy is doing well and hence there is PERM demand. Thus we are seeing significant demand in EB2ROW as well - not to mention EB1 / 4/ 5.
This has created incredibly bleak picture for EB2-I. June VB is just reiterating the same picture.
On EB3-I the story is better - even better compared to last year. But as you all know - I have stopped doing manual calculations. Use WhereismyGC's free tool to get a sense of prediction.
As I always have said - numbers don't lie. Statistics does .... but hard data rarely lies.
p.s. - My apologies if you think I am careless. I don't mean to be. But the whole thing is so pathetic that I would hate to give anybody a false hope. I would rather people understand the problem and then act accordingly to maximize their happiness and career prospects. My best wishes to everybody.
Originally Posted by amulchandra
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Wanted to pen my thoughts on EB2 I / particularly related to the June VB.
Spec has been cautioning us that further movement in EB2 I is not possible without spillover...
CO is not going to use spillover now (he refers to 'annual limits' and hence confirms that only the annual quota is being utilized), hence the retrogression.
If spillover amounts to even 1500 visas (just from EB2 M and P), we'll get to Jan 1 2009 at the very minimum in my opinion. This may happen in August and September bulletins, probably not even a month earlier.
With last year's over-allocation, I just feel he is being extremely conservative with regards to moving EB2 India dates forward.
Several members expressed concerns over the messaging - CO sort of indicated that the category would be retrogressed thru the year and be restored only at the start of the next year. This would be an accurate depiction assuming zero spillover and CO is probably just basing this statement off just the annual limits. There will be some spillover, albeit very small but that should be sufficient to ensure the retrogression is reversed even if for 1-2 months in August/September bulletins...
To validate this point, I looked at prior bulletins and CO's messaging.
Jan 2008 - retrogressed:
CO statement: It is likely that the annual limit for this category will be reached within the next few months, at which time the category would become “unavailable” for the remainder of fiscal year 2008"
Reality: dates advanced significantly in Aug and
Sep.
June 2009 - retrogressed
It has been necessary to retrogress the India Employment Second preference cut-off date for June to keep visa issuances within the annual category numerical limit. At this time, it is not possible to estimate whether or not this retrogression will apply throughout the remainder of the fiscal year.
Reality: dates advanced significantly in Sep.
In 2013, he kept dates retrogressed thru-out the year except for rapid advancement in Aug and Sep.
Im not for a second saying we'll have rapid movement in Q4 - just that the retrogression will be reversed and we should be in 2009 by September... the minimum spillover should get us to Jan 2009...and anything further will take us beyond...
Would LOVE Spec's thoughts...
Firstly, I will admit I didn't expect such a savage retrogression of the dates.
Privately, I have been worried about the ability of EB2-I to progress further, but with low SO expected and high error margins the ultimate outcome was very uncertain.
As Q has said, the numbers don't generally lie.
On one hand, there's already been discussion about the possibility of low SO for the year as the historical sources have dried up.
EB2-ROW demand has been high and may even increase if the PERM surge hits. At worst, that has the potential to eat up much of the horizontal SO within EB2.
The other factor is EB2-I demand itself. The scant evidence points to several thousand EB2-I cases before the May 2016 FAD still pending approval. The majority of Trackitt approvals to date have 2015 and 2016 receipt dates for the I-485 as do a large number of the cases that remain pending.
As for EB3-I, I still expect fairly good news on that front, but not necessarily some of the huge numbers that some people have predicted.
As we entered FY2016, the USCIS Inventory showed around 12k EB3/EW cases pending for ROW (excluding M/P). I'll admit the EB3-ROW Inventory looks a little odd, with substantial numbers of cases with quite old PD's compared to the FAD at that time. Despite Q1 approvals, the number pending increased by 1.5k in the January Inventory.
In the first six months of FY2016, 18k PERM have been certified for ROW. A proportion of those will be EB3 and a proportion of those have a chance of a subsequent I-485 being approved in the remainder of FY2016. How many depends on many factors, not least USCIS processing speeds and priorities. However you calculate it, with dependents, it does have the potential to add substantial demand in FY2016.
Some of my comments may be a bit of overreach, but I do want people to get a sense of the multi faceted nature of the situation.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
sun,
Those figures have not been published.
You can either find out
a) the overall India EB1 usage (including dependents), which is not broken down into the sub-categories (DOS Visa Report) or
b) you can find out the overall breakdown of the EB1 subcategories by primary applicant, but not by Country (DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics)
Sadly, it is becoming increasingly apparent that DHS have ceased publishing the detailed statistics. The last report is for FY2013.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec!
Hi Spec
looks like you think Eb2 India probably can't go beyond Dec 2008 even after spillover?
That was my private belief before the June 2016 VB was published.
Given what CO said in the VB, it's likely much worse than that:
I would take those statements to mean that EB2-I will end FY2016 at FAD similar to that of EB3-I (i.e. in 2005 or 2006).EMPLOYMENT-BASED:
INDIA E2: During the past two months, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. This has necessitated retrogression of the Second preference final action date for the month of June in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2016 annual limit. This date is expected to advance slowly during the last three months of the fiscal year, at a pace consistent with that of the India Employment-based Third preference date.
........
Every effort will be made to return the retrogressed dates to those listed in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin as quickly as possible, once the FY-2017 annual limits take effect October 1, 2016. Speculation on how quickly, or when, a full recovery might occur might not be possible until late summer.
I think it's possible that the EB2-I date might advance a bit further than that in the September VB, if CO finds that demand in other categories was not as high as he currently expects.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q/Spec,
Do you think this retrogression has been done to reduce EB3- EB2 porting?
It has been done to set the expectations of backlogged community. It is sending a message that they shouldn't expect much for the remainder of the year.
How accurate that message is - one can debate. But I believe the direction can't be mistaken.
I agree w Spec that the EB2 situation could be worse than earlier thought.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec and Q,
Thank you very much for your replies. The situation for EB2 I indeed looks dire.
I am waiting in EB3 I line for a decade now. I hope that EB3 I receives some reasonable SO and moves into 2006. My pd is July 2006. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Good luck to all of us.
Thanks
Amul
I am with you Amul, EB3I June 2006..losing hope each day though with the VB fiascos...
Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------
Call me optimistic, or may be I am indulging in wishful thinking because my PD is Jan 2009.
But here is my theory.
1. CO is not at all considering any SO and he has seen enough times that USCIS can sometimes ramp up EB2ROW approvals. After the multiple hits last year, he is going super conservative to avoid a repeat of last year. It was also clear that no SO has been used until now.
2. The trackitt approvals maintained by Spec indicate that we might end up with similar usage as last year for the EB2ROW and EB2M and EB2P. Even if that were to happen, we would get 1000 to 1400 SO and that should help up pull the dates back to Jan 2009.
My take is that in Sep VB we will see the EB2I dates at Jan 2009.
agree with you Jagan... eb2 I should get at least 2k spillover.... 1.2k from M&P and c1k from ROW and EB1 (which is tracking lower).
We should get to Jan/Feb 2009 but not beyond... ALL of the pending inventory 2005-2008 won't be approved (some may be redundant, errors, cross chargeability etc etc)
How does YTEleven come up with 16,000 for EB3 each year! Holy... that would means dates in 2010-11 for Eb2 in 2 years... I can't imagine Eb3I demand is significant 2007-2010....
I had accounted all EB2nonIC SO in the 1000 to 1400 SO estimation.
That is a lot of EB3i available Visas in the next 3 yrs. Would that mean that there will be EB2I to EB3I reverse porting like in the case of China? I am more inclined to believe this prediction if I see RFE's start rolling out for March2005 PD's. Till that time, it is all up in the air.
Once EB3-I hits 2007, there could be an avalanche of applications hitting EB3-I queue.
How? Isn't it obvious that most from 07-09 have already ported to EB2? That is evident as EB2I is struggling to move beyond mid-2009.
Not everyone in EB3 is a porting candidate. I am guessing there would be lot more non-porting candidates than porting candidates. Moreover once EB3 becomes current, there won't be any motivation for porting.
Does this mean the Eb3-i dates will be flushed quickly and there would be reverse porting
Thanks YT. Can you please elaborate on this. How did you reach to this calculation of 16000 numbers for EB3I for 2016. As per you, what will be the final action date for EB3 at the end of 2016 and 2017?
******************************************
Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------
******************************************
You are right. I personally know few EB3I applicants with 2010/2011 PDs and they haven't ported and still in EB3 queue. Their company doesn't in EB2 category. Also they are not in hurry and happy with their current job. So they are not switching the job either.
Thanks
All the people within 01MAY2010 would have migrated from EB3 to EB2. As it was current in the FY2012.
Don't think *all* would have ported from Eb3 - As someone said earlier, there are still a huge # of EB3s sitting in EB3 queue. But whosoever ported would have been greened by now. Am still hopeful of YT's projections. Once 2007 is behind for EB3, as projected by YT, that'd bring a huge relief, nevertheless.
Second factor is if CO keeps EB2 at same pace as EB3, it might reduce the porting pace and might bring some 'visibility' for him (in the way he works) to forecast demand better.
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