EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[nagendra75]

Thank you so much Tenyearsgone. The attorney I consulted too opined the same. I hope it is not withdrawn. Thank you again! Best..

[Spectator]

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

[EB3Iwaiting]

It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

What is the % breakdown of EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW? Over years, EB3ROW has been substantially higher than EB2ROW. But has this changed over the last few years? I also noticed an increase in PERM filings for South Korea - 5715 from 1st Jan to 29th Dec 2015. There is no doubt that there has been a substantial increase in PERM filings for India over the years since 2010. With the H1B lottery, the Indian body shops are gaming the system and taking away most of the H1Bs. Does this also mean there has been a decrease in ROW filings overall? Trying to find some positives here. ROW PERM filings were around 28k last year while India was close to 44k.

Finally, EB3ROW has 11k pending inventory and looking at PERM, I did not see any high demand for them over the last year. Considering they have 2400 visas per month per EB2/3 categories, their demand does not seem close to fulfill the monthly quota. EB2ROW has an 18k pending inventory. Are we expecting the EB3ROW pending inventory to get even lower? Looking at the data, I want to say yes but wanted to know what others think. The last time the pending EB3ROW inventory went to 10k was in Oct 2014 and CO went on to advance the dates by 1.5 years. There is no more place for EB3ROW date advancements other than making it an official "C". Do we think he will do it after the April inventory and that's when he will start applying SO?

[EB2NOV10]

It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

My priority date is Nov2010. What are the chances of becoming current can it be this year 2016 or next year 2017?

[Spectator]

What is the % breakdown of EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW? Over years, EB3ROW has been substantially higher than EB2ROW. But has this changed over the last few years? I also noticed an increase in PERM filings for South Korea - 5715 from 1st Jan to 29th Dec 2015. There is no doubt that there has been a substantial increase in PERM filings for India over the years since 2010. With the H1B lottery, the Indian body shops are gaming the system and taking away most of the H1Bs. Does this also mean there has been a decrease in ROW filings overall? Trying to find some positives here. ROW PERM filings were around 28k last year while India was close to 44k.

Finally, EB3ROW has 11k pending inventory and looking at PERM, I did not see any high demand for them over the last year. Considering they have 2400 visas per month per EB2/3 categories, their demand does not seem close to fulfill the monthly quota. EB2ROW has an 18k pending inventory. Are we expecting the EB3ROW pending inventory to get even lower? Looking at the data, I want to say yes but wanted to know what others think. The last time the pending EB3ROW inventory went to 10k was in Oct 2014 and CO went on to advance the dates by 1.5 years. There is no more place for EB3ROW date advancements other than making it an official "C". Do we think he will do it after the April inventory and that's when he will start applying SO?

Her's the same data for ROW (excludes M&P).

2008 - 30.1k
2009 - 19.1k
2010 - 15.8k
2011 - 17.3k
2012 - 20.0k
2013 - 19.3k
2014 - 21.9k

The low point was 2010. As you said, this might be partly caused by the fact there has been an H1B lottery almost every year since the FY2008 cap season.

I'm always hesitant to specify the relative EB2/EB3 ratios. When I last did a "quick and dirty" analysis for FY2015 data based on the minimum education/experience requirements of the certified PERM, it looked like this:

-------------- EB2 ---- EB3
China ------- 70.1% -- 29.9%
India ------- 74.7% -- 25.3%
Mexico ------ 38.2% -- 61.8%
Philippines - 40.7% -- 59.3%
ROW --------- 58.0% -- 42.0%

All --------- 68.0% -- 32.0%

At the end of Q3 FY2015, the ROW split was 65:35 so it appears there is an increase in EB3 PERM certifications. As you pointed out, many of these are from South Korea and it appears many of those are in the Other Workers category.

[Umesh1209]

Do we have a view/report of how many visas were issued per year / per country / per category similar to the pending inventory? Is so can some one post the link?

[Spectator]

Do we have a view/report of how many visas were issued per year / per country / per category similar to the pending inventory? Is so can some one post the link?

Umesh1209,

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...tatistics.html

Table V for each FY has the data you are looking for.

The data for FY2015 hasn't been published yet. Keep looking, it will be in the fairly near future.

Some of the data is already compiled here into China, India, Mexico, Philippines and ROW

[Umesh1209]

Thanks a lot Spec !

[iatiam]

I was wondering what are the effects of economic slowdown on PERM filings and the overall GC line. The specific questions are,

1. Do you see any slowdown in hiring in your workplace especially for people on visas
2. Has the immigration process slowed down

I am eager to know what is happening in different industries.

I work in the oil and gas and its been a pretty nasty year for us and no end in sight.

Iatiam

[suninphx]

Good to see Spec back in action with lots of numbers and analysis.

[knighthood83]

Thanks Spec and Q. In the past when inventory has needed to built up, the CO had moved the dates aggressively forward and retrogressed it. Folks who got chance to file got lucky and could file. Folks who were not so lucky have been waiting for 4-5 years now. Case in point are the ones in early part of 2010. People who missed out in 2010 back in 2011 are still waiting and will continue to wait.

With the use filing date and final action date, am I right in saying that filing dates will be used to do an inventory build up next time around? If so filing date might hold steady for a long time possibly years and will not retrogress?

The reason I ask this question is if I am contemplating a carrier move, I would need a new PERM , I don't want to be caught out without an approved PERM when the next inventory build up happens.

If filing date holds steady and does not retrogress(I guess FD is not supposed to retrogress). It might give time to ppl to get there PERM's approved.

Q and Spec what are your thoughts on how this next inventory build up might happen.

[qesehmk]

I do not think inventory build up is on CO's mind because there probably isn't much spillover that can clear the backlogs while portings to EB2 are increasing EB2I inventory.

Thanks Spec and Q. In the past when inventory has needed to built up, the CO had moved the dates aggressively forward and retrogressed it. Folks who got chance to file got lucky and could file. Folks who were not so lucky have been waiting for 4-5 years now. Case in point are the ones in early part of 2010. People who missed out in 2010 back in 2011 are still waiting and will continue to wait.

With the use filing date and final action date, am I right in saying that filing dates will be used to do an inventory build up next time around? If so filing date might hold steady for a long time possibly years and will not retrogress?

The reason I ask this question is if I am contemplating a carrier move, I would need a new PERM , I don't want to be caught out without an approved PERM when the next inventory build up happens.

If filing date holds steady and does not retrogress(I guess FD is not supposed to retrogress). It might give time to ppl to get there PERM's approved.

Q and Spec what are your thoughts on how this next inventory build up might happen.

[Spectator]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

[anuprab]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

Spec, that's pretty dire situation for EB2 India folks. I am trying to get an idea here so as to make my life decisions on whether to still stay here in this process or call it quits and go back. To that effect does the situation seem better for EB3 India folks? When is a reasonable time frame for people in 2006 to expect their greencards? I know 2016 might be a stretch but is it likely in 2017?

[geterdone]

I was wondering what are the effects of economic slowdown on PERM filings and the overall GC line. The specific questions are,

1. Do you see any slowdown in hiring in your workplace especially for people on visas
2. Has the immigration process slowed down

I am eager to know what is happening in different industries.

I work in the oil and gas and its been a pretty nasty year for us and no end in sight.

Iatiam

I am also interested in this. I always wonder how Infy/CTS and other companies can keep bringing people every year and I guess it is going up. Do people who get GC under EB1C through these companies stay there long time or do they leave? I am not in IT so now idea things work there.

I saw that there were 12,978 EB1 visas issued to India in 2014. Any idea how much of this is EB1C?

[cool_dude]

So 2020 for EB2 May 2011 seems like a distant dream?

[qesehmk]

I saw that there were 12,978 EB1 visas issued to India in 2014. Any idea how much of this is EB1C?

You can bet 99% of them are EB1C.
p.s. - For the record - I don't see anything wrong with people getting EB1C visas. It is what it is.

[knighthood83]

Thanks I agree with that assessment. The situation for EB2 is quite dire.For folks in 2011 and beyond the situation is just horrible.

Having said that one need not stick to a job in the anticipation that dates might get current all of a sudden. Move one with there carriers and just concentrate on that.

[suninphx]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

To make things worse for people waiting in line RFEs are being issued to people with PD as late as Nov/Dec 2009. That could potentially be waste of money and effort for many of them.

[geterdone]

You can bet 99% of them are EB1C.
p.s. - For the record - I don't see anything wrong with people getting EB1C visas. It is what it is.

Q, don't misunderstand my question. I know it is a very sensitive issue on immigration forums. I was not trying to say people should not get EB!C visa. I do not know anyone personally who got it under C though I know several who got under B. I was just trying to understand the force driving the increasing demand. I am not in IT and so very curious how it works.

I am a little surprised that 99% of them were under C.

[qesehmk]

Q, don't misunderstand my question. I know it is a very sensitive issue on immigration forums. I was not trying to say people should not get EB!C visa. I do not know anyone personally who got it under C though I know several who got under B. I was just trying to understand the force driving the increasing demand. I am not in IT and so very curious how it works.

I am a little surprised that 99% of them were under C.

I didn't misunderstand. I only clarified my own position in case somebody misunderstands my response!

EB1 has PHDs / researchers / outstanding artists-atheletes etc. I personally know Indian PHD folks who are filed in EB2. I do not know ANY body who got a nobel / magassasay or even an olympic gold medal to qualify for EB1-B. That leaves us with eB1C!! Thats my rationale. May be I am wrong by 4-5 %. But I will be mighty surprised if EB1C India approvals are less than 95% of total EB1India approvals!

[4WatItsWorth]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

That's a great summary! Thanks. Though, it is heartbreaking to know how bleak the future for EB-I looks.

Do you see Filing dates moving beyond Jul2009 this year? Secondly when do you see Filing Dates reaching end of 2009, specifically, Nov2009?

[Spectator]

DOS has updated the Annual Immigrant Visa Waiting List Report as of November 1, 2015. This shows of number of Consular Processing cases. For EB1/2/3 it is based on the number of approved I-140 that chose CP sent to NVC by USCIS. It includes dependents if they were specified in the I-140. Itis not analogous to the USCIS Inventory of I-485 because it will cover a far wider range of PD for retrogressed Countries.

You can find it here.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. The EB5 China backlog is startling !! That alone can retrogress EB5. But the 7% limit saves the category.

DOS has updated the Annual Immigrant Visa Waiting List Report as of November 1, 2015. This shows of number of Consular Processing cases. For EB1/2/3 it is based on the number of approved I-140 that chose CP sent to NVC by USCIS. It includes dependents if they were specified in the I-140. Itis not analogous to the USCIS Inventory of I-485 because it will cover a far wider range of PD for retrogressed Countries.

You can find it here.

[EB2NOV10]

Guys....Feb 2016 visa bulletin it out.

Final Action Date
EB2 India -- 01AUG08 ( Advanced by 6 months)
EB3 India -- 15JUN04