EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Gurus - need your opinion here. My PD is July 29, 2011. Is there any chance I would be able to apply for I-485 in 2016?

Yes, Only if EAD for I-140 Regulation gets approved!

[abcx13]

A little more here along with links to the proposed forms:

http://www.immigration-law.com/
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01511-1615-006

[Umesh1209]

Thanks for posting. Have few questions related to J-Form but not sure if we have clarity at this point. Gurus please share your views
1. Will it impact those who used 485 Ead and changed the job?

2. Should USCIS approve the J form before we take up the new job? I seriously hope that is not the case, if so EAD will then be like H1B. Most employers will not wait that long even if they do a premium processing

[nagendra75]

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

[4WatItsWorth]

All the forum discussions regarding forecasts seem to have gotten cold for some reason, which is little surprising.

I think that partly because it has limited accuracy, partly because the forum offers a paid forecasting tool, and those involved with it have stopped doing "free" forecasts, and partly some of those who did it actively, have gotten their GCs and have moved on.

[imdeng]

Mostly because there is nothing to do. Basic data is simple and clear and known to everybody. Beyond that there is nothing to base any forecasts on except just raw guessing. Plus the current situation is so depressing with so many headwinds that its not a pleasant thing to basically keep saying that we might not cross the previous high water mark :-(

If there were chances of EB2I getting 16k-20k visas like in many years past then you would have seen a lot more activity.

I think that partly because it has limited accuracy, partly because the forum offers a paid forecasting tool, and those involved with it have stopped doing "free" forecasts, and partly some of those who did it actively, have gotten their GCs and have moved on.

[knighthood83]

Hey guys happy Sunday!!!. I am a novice at crunching the numbers and I was doing some of my own number crunching. I compared the EB2 numbers for ROW starting Oct 2014 to July 2015 and they have hardly changed.

EB2 ROW is current so how come EB2 ROW cases haven't cleared quicker? They seem to be hanging around the same number. One explanation is they are clearing quickly but are also getting filled to the same number but I dont think growth rate for EB2 ROW is that high. Am I missing something?

[nbk1976]

EB2 ROW isn't current: where do you see that? Thanks.

[sean231]

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

Unfortunately, you would need to start the GC process all over again with the new company and continue to be on H1 until you've crossed the I-140 stage with the new company. Good news is that you can retain your PD (esp considering that your previous company is not going to withdraw it).

[anuprab]

Mostly because there is nothing to do. Basic data is simple and clear and known to everybody. Beyond that there is nothing to base any forecasts on except just raw guessing. Plus the current situation is so depressing with so many headwinds that its not a pleasant thing to basically keep saying that we might not cross the previous high water mark :-(

If there were chances of EB2I getting 16k-20k visas like in many years past then you would have seen a lot more activity.

What about EB3-India? I thought this category was going to get the benefit of spillovers from RoW. too early to predict and hence the silence?

[knighthood83]

I wont ask the gurus on this forum about when my PD will become current. However for ppl having PD's in the second half of 2010 (June to Dec) are these folks looking at another 5 years to even file for AOS? So sometime around 2020 time frame?

It seems to me that with the economy improving the spills into EB2 would only reduce. Or do you think the spike in EB1 and EB2 WW is temporary phenomena?

[qesehmk]

It seems to me that with the economy improving the spills into EB2 would only reduce. Or do you think the spike in EB1 and EB2 WW is temporary phenomena?

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

[4WatItsWorth]

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

I am hearing that EB2-I final action date may not even cross middle of Calendar Year 2009. Is that your feeling too that it is this bad?

[qesehmk]

I am hearing that EB2-I final action date may not even cross middle of Calendar Year 2009. Is that your feeling too that it is this bad?

Yes. I think so based on current indications.

[anuprab]

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

Q, isn't EB3 India supposed to gallop as all things are in its favor? I know I am being selfish and looking for 2005-06 filings, long term trend is ofcourse miserable for all Eb2-3 India applicants

[qesehmk]

Q, isn't EB3 India supposed to gallop as all things are in its favor? I know I am being selfish and looking for 2005-06 filings, long term trend is ofcourse miserable for all Eb2-3 India applicants

It will be a good year for EB3-I but the leap in months / years will come on the back of already thinned out backlog for EB3. In other words - the spillover will not be as huge as we would like (e.g. 20K that EB2I used to enjoy 5 years back!). However even a slight spillover can cause good movement in EB3I because 2004-2007 EB3I has been thinned out due to portings.

Hope this helps!

[anuprab]

It will be a good year for EB3-I but the leap in months / years will come on the back of already thinned out backlog for EB3. In other words - the spillover will not be as huge as we would like (e.g. 20K that EB2I used to enjoy 5 years back!). However even a slight spillover can cause good movement in EB3I because 2004-2007 EB3I has been thinned out due to portings.

Hope this helps!

thanks so if I understand you correctly, thinned out EB3I and spillover should help EB3I this year. when do you think will the movement in EB3I start ?

[nagendra75]

Thank you sean231! I'll be talking to an attorney as well.

[tenyearsgone]

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

If your I-140 is not withdrawn within 180 days, then you can continue to your existing I-485 and file for AC21 (as long as you satisfy the AC21 requirements). There is no need to restart your GC process all over again.
Even if I-140 is withdrawn within 180 days, it may be possible to continue your I-485 if USCIS does not send a NOIR. This would be risky though and future issues may not be ruled out.

[jimmys]

My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. Does anyone of you think I have a chance of filing and getting approved in CY 2016?

[knighthood83]

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

With PERM mordernization they plan to bring in premium processing that too will slow things substantially since demand might start showing up early.

[qesehmk]

With PERM mordernization they plan to bring in premium processing that too will slow things substantially since demand might start showing up early.

Yeah but when the wait time is 9 years long - this factor is a drop in the bucket.

p.s. - Sorry I just realized that the non-India applications would only increase thereby putting stress on already sparsely available spillover visas. Yes you are correct.

[knighthood83]

Yeah but when the wait time is 9 years long - this factor is a drop in the bucket.

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

[mechanical13]

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

Probably to just get EAD/AP at this messed up rate.

The US government condemns the arab states for human rights violations, but in many ways, this country is becoming a lot like the Arab state - "if you are from India, you can work however long you want here and contribute to the economy, but can never become a citizen". I think if someone were to file under EB2I now, the wait times are likely 20 years to get GC.

[qesehmk]

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

I was speaking vaguely. If you look at the Visa Bulletin, EB2I folks from 2008 are still waiting. This is 2016. That's 8 years already and we don't even know if all 2008 folks will be cleared this year.