EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Suva2001]

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.

The fallacy to your calculation is EB3-ROW perm applications are also increased. So not sure if we receive more or less in FY16 compared to FY15.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.

Yes. That seems quite possible.

[geterdone]

If this trend continues then another 3 to 4 years for Nov 2009 EB2I PD? Wow almost 9 to 10 years for EB2I and it is only going to get worse.

You can find them here. It's CO's best guess at this stage.

It's potentially quite bad news.

Had the figure been 140,000 for EB, then I would have said CO didn't yet know about FB numbers.

However, the number is 140,300 - an increase of just 300. That suggests that virtually no FB visas were wasted in FY2015.

Last year, the first version predicted 144,000. That was later updated to 144,730 and the final official number was 144,796.


Employment
(estimated limit)


Preference --------- China* -- All Others -- Worldwide
El ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E2 ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E3/EW -------------- 2,509 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126**
E4/SR ---------------- 697 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961
E5 --------------------- 0 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961

Total -------------- 8,821* ------- 9,821 ---- 140,300

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be
reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the
E5 category.

**The EW category is currently entitled to up to 5,000 of this total.

Unused numbers can "fall-down" from El to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can "fall-up" from E4
and E5 to EI. That fact is taken into consideration when setting the monthly/annual targets for
number use, and based on historical/recent patterns of number use.


To put this into context, the lower FB visas represents a loss of SO to EB2-I of 2.8k and a loss of SO to EB3-I of 1.0k compared to FY2015.

[transformer123]

December Visa Bulletin:
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...mber-2015.html
DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED
VISA APPLICATIONS: 01JUL09 (EB2I)
APPLICATION FINAL ACTION DATES FOR
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES: 01JUN07 (EB2I)


VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Forward movement of this date during FY-2015 has resulted in a
dramatic increase in demand. Little, if any movement is likely
during the coming months.
India: Up to eight months.

[EB3Iwaiting]

This means a quarterly SO has not been applied.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

This means a quarterly SO has not been applied.

That is the only thing we can say confidently!!

[harapatha]

I think his predictions were based on the SO from EB3ROW. So do not think a low SO from FB changes his forecasts. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Thank you!

[EB3Iwaiting]

To the experts in this forum:

Can someone explain to me why the EB3ROW cut-off dates are provided the way they are? I know that technically the dates look Current. But then why not simply write "C"? Is it because CO is not sure of the EB3ROW demand?

Also, they said that EB3I Final Action dates will move a few weeks for the next few months. I am assuming no movement to the Filing Dates. So, when can we expect the Filing dates to move?

[Jagan01]

That is the only thing we can say confidently!!

I guess you are talking about EB3I.

From the EB2I numbers it looks like the quarterly SO has been applied. I would doubt that they pick a different strategy for EB2 and a different one for EB3.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I guess you are talking about EB3I.

From the EB2I numbers it looks like the quarterly SO has been applied. I would doubt that they pick a different strategy for EB2 and a different one for EB3.

So you are saying EB3I has no spillovers from EB3ROW?

[Jagan01]

So you are saying EB3I has no spillovers from EB3ROW?

How would you know the SO coming from EB3ROW so early in the year. That is something that you would only know pretty late in the FY. SO from EB3ROW means the amount EB3ROW does not use in "this" FY.

As of now the only SO is 300 visas (total for all EB) and that really is an insignificant number. So quarterly SO may have been applied for the amount of SO known as of today.

[qesehmk]

Guys as Jagan says - Quarterly Spillover can only be applied in the last month of quarter at the very earliest. This is just November. So ZERO chance of any quartely spillover being applied to any category.

[vyruss]

December Bulletin says forward movement "Upto 8 months". Is this a guesstimate for total movement that can expected by Oct 2016?

[gcq]

Typically SO is applied only in last quarter. However this is a special year for EB3 in terms of EB3ROW becoming officially current. If CO believes that there is not going to be much EB3 ROW demand, he can confidently do the spillover in advance. However he can easily wait for the last quarter and apply full spillover if he feels confident of less EB3 ROW demand.

IMO the reason EB3I is moving more than 1 week every bulletin is because dates till Dec 2004 was current last year. Many of the applicants from later 2004 got approved. I was approved last year (May 2004 PD). Many from Dec 2004 was also approved. So till Dec 2004 EB3I has less than normal demand. So with 300 visas coming from regular quota every month, dates will easily move more than a week. Once it hits 2005, it will be back to normal movement ( 1 week). I think monthly movement will be more than 3 weeks for EB3I india as CO is unnecessarily holding back EB3I movement because of his bias towards EB3ROW ( yes, I am saying that again !).

[qesehmk]

How is post - GC life GCQ?

Typically SO is applied only in last quarter. However this is a special year for EB3 in terms of EB3ROW becoming officially current. If CO believes that there is not going to be much EB3 ROW demand, he can confidently do the spillover in advance. However he can easily wait for the last quarter and apply full spillover if he feels confident of less EB3 ROW demand.

IMO the reason EB3I is moving more than 1 week every bulletin is because dates till Dec 2004 was current last year. Many of the applicants from later 2004 got approved. I was approved last year (May 2004 PD). Many from Dec 2004 was also approved. So till Dec 2004 EB3I has less than normal demand. So with 300 visas coming from regular quota every month, dates will easily move more than a week. Once it hits 2005, it will be back to normal movement ( 1 week). I think monthly movement will be more than 3 weeks for EB3I india as CO is unnecessarily holding back EB3I movement because of his bias towards EB3ROW ( yes, I am saying that again !).

[gcq]

How is post - GC life GCQ?

I am very relaxed with a GC. Seeing all this craziness going on in immigration front, sometimes I forget I have GC and feel quite disturbed. It is hard to stay away from immigration topics even after getting GC.

[qesehmk]

I can understand. I have exactly the same feelings.

I am very relaxed with a GC. Seeing all this craziness going on in immigration front, sometimes I forget I have GC and feel quite disturbed. It is hard to stay away from immigration topics even after getting GC.

[anuprab]

Typically SO is applied only in last quarter. However this is a special year for EB3 in terms of EB3ROW becoming officially current. If CO believes that there is not going to be much EB3 ROW demand, he can confidently do the spillover in advance. However he can easily wait for the last quarter and apply full spillover if he feels confident of less EB3 ROW demand.

IMO the reason EB3I is moving more than 1 week every bulletin is because dates till Dec 2004 was current last year. Many of the applicants from later 2004 got approved. I was approved last year (May 2004 PD). Many from Dec 2004 was also approved. So till Dec 2004 EB3I has less than normal demand. So with 300 visas coming from regular quota every month, dates will easily move more than a week. Once it hits 2005, it will be back to normal movement ( 1 week). I think monthly movement will be more than 3 weeks for EB3I india as CO is unnecessarily holding back EB3I movement because of his bias towards EB3ROW ( yes, I am saying that again !).

so you are saying post 2005, one week movement ! what does mean for people like me who have a June 2006 EB3 date. from the looks no hope FY16, does FY17 look brighter??

I would also love YTelven to chime in if possible as he has been the most optimistic person with that famous chart of his that's being going across forums...

[geterdone]

December Bulletin says forward movement "Upto 8 months". Is this a guesstimate for total movement that can expected by Oct 2016?

This is what they had in the visa bulletin:

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through March based on current applicant demand patterns.

So if you take 8 month movements for the next 3 bulletins it can go till June 2009. I am not sure if that will happen but you never know.

[gcq]

so you are saying post 2005, one week movement ! what does mean for people like me who have a June 2006 EB3 date. from the looks no hope FY16, does FY17 look brighter??

I would also love YTelven to chime in if possible as he has been the most optimistic person with that famous chart of his that's being going across forums...

I am no expert like YT, Spec or Q.
By the time dates hits 2005, the fall across from EB3-ROW would have started. So you HAVE hope this year !.

[EB3Iwaiting]

The difference in this year's EB3 category is that EB3ROW is finally current (or sort of current based on the cut-off date). Last year, EB3ROW cleared 3 years worth of backlog and EB3I still got around 4500 SO from that category. So, it is expected that EB3I will get more SO from that category this year. The only thing is, when will CO start applying this? I agree from a post above that he is being conservative and does not want to advance EB3I dates too fast and allowing more time to see EB3ROW demand. So, maybe some time in April we can start seeing SO, or maybe even after that?

[harapatha]

The difference in this year's EB3 category is that EB3ROW is finally current (or sort of current based on the cut-off date). Last year, EB3ROW cleared 3 years worth of backlog and EB3I still got around 4500 SO from that category. So, it is expected that EB3I will get more SO from that category this year. The only thing is, when will CO start applying this? I agree from a post above that he is being conservative and does not want to advance EB3I dates too fast and allowing more time to see EB3ROW demand. So, maybe some time in April we can start seeing SO, or maybe even after that?

Sounds sweet to me. The fact that CO has to apply the spillover (>4500) to EB3I *sometime* this FY is a great outcome - In line with YT's forecasts.. Thanks @EB3IWaiting.

[amulchandra]

The difference in this year's EB3 category is that EB3ROW is finally current (or sort of current based on the cut-off date). Last year, EB3ROW cleared 3 years worth of backlog and EB3I still got around 4500 SO from that category. So, it is expected that EB3I will get more SO from that category this year. The only thing is, when will CO start applying this? I agree from a post above that he is being conservative and does not want to advance EB3I dates too fast and allowing more time to see EB3ROW demand. So, maybe some time in April we can start seeing SO, or maybe even after that?

You echoed exactly what I said. This is what I said.

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.

[anuprab]

Sounds sweet to me. The fact that CO has to apply the spillover (>4500) to EB3I *sometime* this FY is a great outcome - In line with YT's forecasts.. Thanks @EB3IWaiting.

yup. I am no expert but from pending inventory we still have 4.4k in 2004 to be cleared out and another 5k in 2005. so not sure if the entire backlog will be wiped out in FY 16 and if the dates can reach even early 2006.

[EB3Iwaiting]

yup. I am no expert but from pending inventory we still have 4.4k in 2004 to be cleared out and another 5k in 2005. so not sure if the entire backlog will be wiped out in FY 16 and if the dates can reach even early 2006.

Early 2006 is a safe bet. Anything more than that would be great. If It happens as per YTEleven's famous graph, he will forever become the hero/savior whatever you may call it of EB3Is.