EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[skpanda]

Kudos Satya.

Me and my other physician colleague signed the consent forms and emailed Greg back on Sunday evening but seems like you guys were already listed by that time on the lawsuit. This is great and it seems like people are overwhelmingly responding to this injustice. I have always felt that Indians by nature are usually risk averse and I am really feeling happy that everyone is coming together (well not everyone ) in this difficult time. We all are in it together and I admire your and everybody else's efforts to get justice. Lets fight this out regardless of its outcome.

May the justice prevail.

Thanks Jonty..
if you sent the consent form, then you are already a plaintiff. The lawsuit is on behalf of more than 1000 people who have been in touch with Gregg. They just needed few names to put on lawsuit. I thank you for taking the step and fighting for injustice.

Hope saner minds in DHS/DOS/USCIS back off and go back to the old VB asap.

Regards!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Thanks Jonty..
if you sent the consent form, then you are already a plaintiff. The lawsuit is on behalf of more than 1000 people who have been in touch with Gregg. They just needed few names to put on lawsuit. I thank you for taking the step and fighting for injustice.

Hope saner minds in DHS/DOS/USCIS back off and go back to the old VB asap.

Regards!

I wasn't aware of that I would be one of the plaintiffs also. That's excellent. Greg has been amazing. I had asked my attorney Michael Sherman on Friday itself about possibility of Greg Siskind filing a lawsuit and whether he would advise joining it. He had all great things to say about him. Michael told me that he and his brother Ted have spoken to Greg many times and they have always found him very honorable and kind person. Those were strong words coming from a lawyer for a fellow lawyer. So I have been spreading the word and encouraging everyone to participate in the lawsuit. I think I have asked at least 50 people to do it and I know for sure that at least 40 have signed the consent forms.

[qesehmk]

Meanwhile, if i possible, kindly send flowers to Jeh Johnson. (Secretary, DHS). I know this is a step promoted by an Organization that is not liked here, but just hoping that it will have an effect.

I have sent 5 separate flower bouquets (one each for me and my wife who are directly Affected. one for my US citizen son. 2 on behalf of my colleagues who share my pain even though they have GC already).

Satya - Doing this is just like those supersmart /extra genius ISRO rocket scientists who performed a Pooja of the Mangalyaan

As per the "other organization" - we do NOT dislike them. But we do not respect them either. I think they engage in Voodoo advocacy. One that has no meaningful outcome and one that is almost superstitious. US is a country where one has to earn your right. Nobody hands it out to you. Advocacy has its limitation for a number of reasons that I have spoken at length. I really hate it when ANY organization or person pretend to have insider access to DHS DOS or White house or Senate etc and then they send out breaking news that turns out dud.

The country cap is the real CRAP in immigration. Advocacy is not going to work. Only a legal fight has some chance.

[skpanda]

Satya - Doing this is just like those supersmart /extra genius ISRO rocket scientists who performed a Pooja of the Mangalyaan

As per the "other organization" - we do dislike them. But we do not respect them either. I think they engage in Voodoo advocacy. One that has no meaningful outcome and one that is almost superstitious. US is a country where one has to earn your right. Nobody hands it out to you. Advocacy has its limitation for a number of reasons that I have spoken at length. I really hate it when ANY organization or person pretend to have insider access to DHS DOS or White house or Senate etc and then they send out breaking news that turns out dud.

The country cap is the real CRAP in immigration. Advocacy is not going to work. Only a legal fight has some chance.

I agree with you Q. Infact I do not like/respect them either. Its been 3 years, I have visited their website or participate in any of their initiatives. But in the spirit of leaving no stone un-turned, i went ahead and did lot of things (Flowers campaign, signing petitions etc), which i know will not yield any result.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Satya. I certainly understand where you are coming from! You are a good man.

I agree with you Q. Infact I do not like/respect them either. Its been 3 years, I have visited their website or participate in any of their initiatives. But in the spirit of leaving no stone un-turned, i went ahead and did lot of things (Flowers campaign, signing petitions etc), which i know will not yield any result.

[bikenlalan]

Just now received an email from Greg,

"As you may have heard, we filed our complaint yesterday asking DOS and USCIS to revert back to the original Visa Bulletin. We are preparing to file an amended complaint tomorrow and also request a Temporary Restraining Order. We intend to include with our documents declarations from individuals harmed by the government's actions. If you are interested in helping with this effort, please download and complete the form that we have created (available here: http://www.visalaw.com/wp-content/up...CLARATION.docx), sign it and email it back to me at gsiskind@visalaw.com. Please put "Declaration" in the subject line. Also, remember that your declaration will be part of a public record and if that is a problem, you should not participate. Thanks."

[Suva2001]

Does anyone know where I can see pending Perm inventory for ROW? I just want to predict future date movement for EB3.

Thanks

[tatikonda]

Want to send emails to media about this Fiasco..
here you go !

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[Spectator]

Does anyone know where I can see pending Perm inventory for ROW? I just want to predict future date movement for EB3.

Thanks

By definition, there are no figures available for pending PERM cases, other than those selected statistics OFLC publish quarterly. At the end of Q3 FY2015, there were 63,097 cases pending for all Countries.

The PERM figures for Certified cases up to Q3 FY2015 broken down various ways can be found here.

Here's a comparison of Certified PERM for FY2014 vs FY2015 to date.

Country ------ FY2014 -- FY2015 - Increase - % Increase
CHINA --------- 4,577 --- 6,802 --- 2,225 ---- 48.6%
INDIA -------- 35,092 -- 45,416 -- 10,324 ---- 29.4%
MEXICO -------- 1,295 --- 1,475 ----- 180 ---- 13.9%
PHILIPPINES --- 1,502 --- 1,541 ------ 39 ----- 2.6%
ROW ---------- 20,167 -- 22,919 --- 2,752 ---- 13.6%

Grand Total -- 62,633 -- 78,153 -- 15,520 ---- 24.8%


Hope that helps.

[Suva2001]

By definition, there are no figures available for pending PERM cases, other than those selected statistics OFLC publish quarterly. At the end of Q3 FY2015, there were 63,097 cases pending for all Countries.

The PERM figures for Certified cases up to Q3 FY2015 broken down various ways can be found here.

Here's a comparison of Certified PERM for FY2014 vs FY2015 to date.

Country ------ FY2014 -- FY2015 - Increase - % Increase
CHINA --------- 4,577 --- 6,802 --- 2,225 ---- 48.6%
INDIA -------- 35,092 -- 45,416 -- 10,324 ---- 29.4%
MEXICO -------- 1,295 --- 1,475 ----- 180 ---- 13.9%
PHILIPPINES --- 1,502 --- 1,541 ------ 39 ----- 2.6%
ROW ---------- 20,167 -- 22,919 --- 2,752 ---- 13.6%

Grand Total -- 62,633 -- 78,153 -- 15,520 ---- 24.8%


Hope that helps.

Spec, Please help me understand. Are you saying 78,153 is total applications in EB category for which 80,000 (EB2+Eb3) are allowed in a year? Also how many of these are in EB3? 40%?

[Spectator]

Spec, Please help me understand. Are you saying 78,153 is total applications in EB category for which 80,000 (EB2+Eb3) are allowed in a year? Also how many of these are in EB3? 40%?

Suva,

The figure of 78,153 is the number of PERM Certified in FY2015 to date.

You would need to make estimates of the number of cases that will result in an EB3 I-140, the approval rate, the number of dependents at I-485 etc etc.

The number of dependents overall for EB3 has been around 1.25 in addition to the primary fairly consistently in recent years. I have no idea how that varies between Countries.

I did a rough analysis of the FY2015 PERM certifications up to Q3 based on minimum qualifications required. That gave me the following:

Group -------- EB2 --- EB3
China ------- 73.4% - 26.6%
India ------- 74.4% - 25.6%
Mexico ------ 38.9% - 61.1%
Philippines - 46.4% - 53.6%
ROW --------- 62.5% - 37.5%

Overall ----- 69.8% - 30.2%

You need to takes those figures with a pinch of salt and make your own mind up.

You'll also need to factor in those I-485 cases that do not require a PERM, such as Schedule A cases. For the most part, this is most applicable to Philippines in EB3. You also need to be aware that the 7% limit is an overall figure and that some Countries (currently Philippines) can use more than 2.8k in EB3 and still be within the overall 7% limit. There are many other factors I won't even detail.

Good luck - I don't think it is an easy calculation.

[toomuchguy]

Hi experts,
Can a full-time H1B work 40 hours in 4 days(i.e 10 hours per day and not work on Friday) ?? Does that violate any H1B/LCA norms and cause any potential issues with Green Card.
My company is a regular USA company and not based on EVC model.

Note: The fulltime H1B won't be benched or anything...just to suit his family constraints, he would work 40 hours M-Th and officially not be working on Friday.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

As far as I know there is no requirement when in a week one should work. So you should be just fine.

Also my understanding is that 36 hours per wk is considered full employment. So 40 hours sounds pretty good.

Hi experts,
Can a full-time H1B work 40 hours in 4 days(i.e 10 hours per day and not work on Friday) ?? Does that violate any H1B/LCA norms and cause any potential issues with Green Card.
My company is a regular USA company and not based on EVC model.

Note: The fulltime H1B won't be benched or anything...just to suit his family constraints, he would work 40 hours M-Th and officially not be working on Friday.

Thanks

[Suva2001]

Thanks Spec. I would try to calculate EB3-I movement on your data.

[toomuchguy]

As far as I know there is no requirement when in a week one should work. So you should be just fine.

Also my understanding is that 36 hours per wk is considered full employment. So 40 hours sounds pretty good.

Thanks appreciate your feedback

[skpanda]

Spec,
We need your help!

Do you by any chance have this information that Greg Siskind is asking? Or point me in the direction where i can find this information?

"An estimate of how many people may have potentially filed for I485 based on the Original Oct 2015 Visa Bulletin. Example, for EB2 India, The cutoff date was 1st July 2011. Last time the best date was Apr 2010. So how many people may have potentially filed for I485 going by 1st July 2011. Similar information for all other affected countries"

Appreciate your help!

Regards,
Skpanda

By definition, there are no figures available for pending PERM cases, other than those selected statistics OFLC publish quarterly. At the end of Q3 FY2015, there were 63,097 cases pending for all Countries.

The PERM figures for Certified cases up to Q3 FY2015 broken down various ways can be found here.

Here's a comparison of Certified PERM for FY2014 vs FY2015 to date.

Country ------ FY2014 -- FY2015 - Increase - % Increase
CHINA --------- 4,577 --- 6,802 --- 2,225 ---- 48.6%
INDIA -------- 35,092 -- 45,416 -- 10,324 ---- 29.4%
MEXICO -------- 1,295 --- 1,475 ----- 180 ---- 13.9%
PHILIPPINES --- 1,502 --- 1,541 ------ 39 ----- 2.6%
ROW ---------- 20,167 -- 22,919 --- 2,752 ---- 13.6%

Grand Total -- 62,633 -- 78,153 -- 15,520 ---- 24.8%


Hope that helps.

[skpanda]

I attempted an educated guess based on historical pending inventory data:

wanted to vet it with you guyz. Please advise if i am missing anything:


Category Year Total Applications Months Average per month
EB2-I 2006 18847 12 1571
EB2-I 2007 14497 12 1208
EB2-I 2008 16027 12 1336
EB2-I 2009 14199 12 1183
EB2-I 2010 4951 4 1238
EB2-I 2006 to 2010 68521 52 1318
EB2-C 2012 2822 12 235
EB3-P 2013 820 12 68


Multiplied the above averages by number of months Benefits that Original October VB was giving.

Potential EB2 India cases between May 2010 - June 2011: 18448
Potential EB2 China cases between Jan 2014 - May 2014: 1176
Potential EB3 Phillipines cases between Oct 2014 - Dec 2014: 205

Total: 19829

Spec,
We need your help!

Do you by any chance have this information that Greg Siskind is asking? Or point me in the direction where i can find this information?

"An estimate of how many people may have potentially filed for I485 based on the Original Oct 2015 Visa Bulletin. Example, for EB2 India, The cutoff date was 1st July 2011. Last time the best date was Apr 2010. So how many people may have potentially filed for I485 going by 1st July 2011. Similar information for all other affected countries"

Appreciate your help!

Regards,
Skpanda

[mesan123]

Will it not be double the number you mentioned as 485 applications will be almost double to I-140( family members are added).
As greg also mentioned he was adding spouses of primary applicants who got affected...

Great job Spanda. Yes i also signed, sent paper work late to him as my got my lawyer confirmation late ( i have one of those lawyers )

I attempted an educated guess based on historical pending inventory data:

wanted to vet it with you guyz. Please advise if i am missing anything:


Category Year Total Applications Months Average per month
EB2-I 2006 18847 12 1571
EB2-I 2007 14497 12 1208
EB2-I 2008 16027 12 1336
EB2-I 2009 14199 12 1183
EB2-I 2010 4951 4 1238
EB2-I 2006 to 2010 68521 52 1318
EB2-C 2012 2822 12 235
EB3-P 2013 820 12 68


Multiplied the above averages by number of months Benefits that Original October VB was giving.

Potential EB2 India cases between May 2010 - June 2011: 18448
Potential EB2 China cases between Jan 2014 - May 2014: 1176
Potential EB3 Phillipines cases between Oct 2014 - Dec 2014: 205

Total: 19829

[skpanda]

Good Point mesan! Greg is trying to quantify the amount of money that people may have lost in this process. He has a survey data on total cost spent by each family. So he needs the number of potentially affected applicants so he can multiply that with average cost spent.

But i have informed him about the spouses and children so he knows the total number of 'people' affected. Thanks!

Anybody else, please advise if I am missing anything in my forecast? This is very time critical. I am in touch with Greg and his colleague Andrew Free as I type this. We do not want exact numbers but educated guess backed by credible data.

Will it not be double the number you mentioned as 485 applications will be almost double to I-140( family members are added).
As greg also mentioned he was adding spouses of primary applicants who got affected...

Great job Spanda. Yes i also signed, sent paper work late to him as my got my lawyer confirmation late ( i have one of those lawyers )

[Spectator]

Spec,
We need your help!

Do you by any chance have this information that Greg Siskind is asking? Or point me in the direction where i can find this information?

"An estimate of how many people may have potentially filed for I485 based on the Original Oct 2015 Visa Bulletin. Example, for EB2 India, The cutoff date was 1st July 2011. Last time the best date was Apr 2010. So how many people may have potentially filed for I485 going by 1st July 2011. Similar information for all other affected countries"

Appreciate your help!

Regards,
Skpanda

SK,

Firstly, good luck with the lawsuit.

From the PERM data and making various allowances (which generally reduce the number), I would estimate that around 22.3k additional cases (primary and dependent) for EB2-I would have been able to file with a PD of May 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011. In addition, there could be an unquantified number of porting cases with an original EB3 PD in the affected range who have subsequently had an EB2 I-140 approved.

EB2-C has previously reached 15DEC13. The extra due to a move to 01MAY14 I would estimate to be about 2k.

EB3-P has previously reached a COD of 01OCT14 versus a filing date of 01JAN15 in the original October VB. I can't guess the effect of the gap. Many (if not most) cases do not need a PERM because they are Schedule A workers and a significant number follow the CP route.

I have no idea of the impact on the FB cases.

It's quite a long time since I have really visited this subject and the underlying assumptions, so take the figures as a best guess. That may not be good enough for the purpose you describe.

PS:- The USCIS Inventory data (which I think you used for your calculation) include dependents. It probably did not capture the true number of EB2-IC cases when the dates moved forward rapidly in FY2012, since cases were also being approved at that time.

[abcx13]

For anyone who is in touch with Siskind, can you please ask him how country caps are legal or Constitutional? They are all but discrimination written into the law. I have asked him this but he never responded. Taking on country caps will make the backlog everyone's problem and then you'll see it getting fixed.

[srimurthy]

Especially on the employment categories, as we say they are equal opportunity for all with same or similar skills.

For anyone who is in touch with Siskind, can you please ask him how country caps are legal or Constitutional? They are all but discrimination written into the law. I have asked him this but he never responded. Taking on country caps will make the backlog everyone's problem and then you'll see it getting fixed.

[jdoe99]

I am quoting one of the users on Ron Gotcher's forum who did a lot of lifting during the H4EAD process and is heavily involved now with the lawsuit process for people here who are affected and can help.

Gene Johnson from Associated Press wants to talk to people directly affected by this VB reversal. I know many of you here who are. It would be great if we can get some media coverage. Talk how this affected you. Other than the money spent, it is more about anguish, mental stress, insecurity etc.

All those affected and are willing to talk, please give him a call at 206-682-1812.

You can also tweet him at @geneAPseattle

[qesehmk]

Guys - do call this reporter GENE JOHNSON - and also tell him that these country caps are completely discriminatory.

A country of 1.2B people that is sending almost 50,000 of its brightest people here - they are subject to the same quota as senegal or nepal or cameroon. Thus resulting into extra ordinary delays for them while people from aforementioned countries are getting GCs in months. Nothing against them - but this is absolute injustice.

I am quoting one of the users on Ron Gotcher's forum who did a lot of lifting during the H4EAD process and is heavily involved now with the lawsuit process for people here who are affected and can help.

[tatikonda]

From Greg Siskand.

On a plane as I’m writing this and will arrive in Seattle close to midnight with a long night of work ahead. Andrew Free and I, along with local counsel Bob Pauw and Bob Gibbons (who are brilliant lawyers who happen to be located in Seattle), are planning on filing a request for temporary restraining order tomorrow and get a hearing later in the day. Of course, we’re very hopeful USCIS will not make it necessary to ask for this.

We have been getting sworn declarations for those harmed by this debacle and will be armed with 100s of them as well as several declarations from some of the best known immigration lawyers in America. We hope strong documentation along with solid arguments will carry the day. The feedback we received on our complaint filed yesterday was gratifying and we’re hoping sensible minds in the government will see Friday’s decision as an unnecessary disaster and will work to rectify quickly.

We’ve been trying to crunch numbers to determine how many people are affected. We’ve heard unofficial estimates of 25,000 or more, but if readers know more please let me know.

Also, we are particularly interested in hearing from people who will suffer unusually severe harm from not being able to file. In particular, if you’ve run out of time on an L-1B, if you’re not AC21 extension eligible for some reason, if you didn’t file an H-1B extension because you were relying on filing to adjust on 10/1, please let me know as well.

Will let you know more tomorrow. Wish us luck.