EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[inspired_p]

Whats the prediction for EB3-I with Mult factors?

[vsivarama]

@mr00us, I had something similar where EB2I - Projection was April - 11 and EB3I was Sept - 11. I used 2 as the multiplication factor and used 20% downgrade for 2009 and 2010, 30% for 2011 and 40% for 2012 and onwards. But the reality could be very different. My assumption is that dates could jump big and could even reach late 2012 in order to process the cases that have all the ducks in a row only to retrogress in Oct 2021. Not all applications are created equal and some may require more attention or purely be processed slowly based on the Service Centers or the field offices. People in major metro areas could see their cases move at snails pace. I personally would like them to apply all the available visa numbers to the cases and keep working on them till completion even if the processing extends to FY 2022. This way none of the numbers in FY 2021 are wasted. But as we all know it's the USCIS and efficiency is not a thing with them. Hope they start issuing pending 485 inventories so that we can stop guessing.

[rainmaker12]

PD : July 2010 (EB2-I)
10/21/2020: 485 Filing date
11/18/2020: 485, 765 131 Receipt notice date
12/22/2020: Biometric notice date
01/21/2021 : Biometric appointment (Seattle ASC)
01/28/2021 : I-765 approved
02/02/2021 : received EAD/AP card in mail

Even though me and my spouse had applied together and went for biometric at the same time. Only my EAD/AP has been approved. My spouse status still shows as "Case Was Updated To Show Fingerprints Were Taken" since the biometric appointment. Anyone on the same boat?

Finally, dependent EAD/AP was approved today and status now says "We ordered your new card" more than a month after my EAD/AP was approved. spouse had to quit the job in November since H4 EAD expired in Nov 2020 and renewal is still pending. One less thing to worry and now have to find another job.

Dependent EAD/AP details
Receipt Number(s): MSC219027****
PD : July 2010 (EB2-I)
10/21/2020: 485 Filing date
11/18/2020: 485, 765 131 Receipt notice date
01/21/2021 : Biometric appointment (Seattle ASC)
02/26/2021 : I-765 approved and new card ordered.


Primary applicant details.
PD : July 2010 (EB2-I)
10/21/2020: 485 Filing date
11/18/2020: 485, 765 131 Receipt notice date
01/21/2021 : Biometric appointment (Seattle ASC)
01/28/2021 : I-765 approved and new card ordered.
02/02/2021 : received EAD/AP card in mail

[SaibabaAug2010]

Hi SaibabaAug2010,

Are you saying because of your H1B(+ H4 EAD) Premium application, your bio-metrics got triggered for your i-485 application that was submitted on 11/16/20? Don't you think it's a coincidence? If your H4 EAD bio-metrics got triggered at least it makes sense and can think that JB admin is doing something to alleviate H4 EAD extension grid lock.

Thanks!

Yes, I don't think it's a coincidence, A. My 485 receipt date is 11/16 and you know there are tons of people ahead of me are still waiting for Biometrics (btw, our applications are at NBC) B. The Biometrics for our 485 & 539 were generated on the day H1 Extn package was received. Besides this, I agree with your point that JB admin might be playing a role in removing hard stops for H4 EAD as I see many long pending applications are receiving updates lately. Good luck!!

[mr00us]

Whats the prediction for EB3-I with Mult factors?

Here you go. There are 2 big catch(es).
1. How many down port from EB2 to EB3 and in which month/year so EB2/3 movement will be based on that. These numbers are just guess so I would not like avoid speculating
2. How many visas are wasted by USCIS

Other than these, if we go just by numbers, here we are. All in all things look good for EB2.

Attachment 1779

[fishelusa]

Hi i heard family based proclamation is lifted and it will slow down the eb progression in next coming months. Is this true and your thoughts on this

[bones20]

My PD is 04/29/2010. Thinking about downgrade since it seems it will take at least 2 more months to become current ("bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"). Any suggestion?

Unless you already have a i140 in EB3 approved it's only going to add to your wait time. Plus for people who are thinking of downgrade (esp who filed AOS in Oct 2020), need to keep one thing in mind. Date is current not necessarily equals to GC. Date is current and 485 application process (fingerprints/Background checks/possible Interviews) is complete equals GC. USCIS will perform these actions on their schedule.

Do you already have approved 140 in EB3? If not, I don't think it is a good idea. 140 is taking a long time now and most of the cases they are rejecting premium process for downgrade 140. I think, you will get your GC in EB2 before your EB3 140 is approved.

Update & questions:
1. I spoke to my attorney. She suggested to file for eb3 i-140 (attempt premium processing). Once the eb3 i-140 is approved request for an official downgrade ("transfer of underlying basis"). If eb2 becomes current before eb3, continue with current AOS with eb2 classification. Do you guys see any issue with this approach?

2. I came across this article:
https://www.murthy.com/2020/10/14/in...5-case-1-of-2/

Eligibility Criteria for Interfiling / Transfer of Underlying Basis
The criteria for interfiling are not written in the law or any regulation. Interfiling, or transfer of underlying basis, is purely an administratively created procedure and is described only in guidance for USCIS adjudicators ? specifically, the PM and USCIS memoranda. As such, the decision to grant any particular type of interfiling request is discretionary, and not guaranteed. If all the conditions set by the USCIS are satisfied, however, there is a good chance that the interfiling request will be approved, as this serves USCIS?s interests of efficiency. It also facilitates the applicant?s goal of obtaining permanent residence by saving time, effort, and multiple filing fees.

The PM requires that the request be made in writing. There is, however, no specific form or format for this request. Additionally, there are cases in which the USCIS will initiate a conversion without a written request.

Any idea on which case(s) USCIS will initiate an automatic conversion (transfer of underlying basis) to eb3? Does a mere presence of approved/pending eb3 i140 trigger the conversion?

3. I went through a re-org and have been moved to a different org to the one where PERM was originally filed & approved. My role/position/pay all remains the same. Do you see any problem in reusing the original approved PERM for filing the eb3 i-140?

[AceMan]

Update & questions:
1. I spoke to my attorney. She suggested to file for eb3 i-140 (attempt premium processing). Once the eb3 i-140 is approved request for an official downgrade ("transfer of underlying basis"). If eb2 becomes current before eb3, continue with current AOS with eb2 classification. Do you guys see any issue with this approach?

2. I came across this article:
https://www.murthy.com/2020/10/14/in...5-case-1-of-2/


Any idea on which case(s) USCIS will initiate an automatic conversion (transfer of underlying basis) to eb3? Does a mere presence of approved/pending eb3 i140 trigger the conversion?

3. I went through a re-org and have been moved to a different org to the one where PERM was originally filed & approved. My role/position/pay all remains the same. Do you see any problem in reusing the original approved PERM for filing the eb3 i-140?

You are just going to wait for another 20-25 days, do nothing else, but watch if EB2 I reaches May 2010 or a day beyond your PD in the next bulletin .

[H1b2006]

Guys any idea how much % of total Eb2 eb3 Applications are receopted sofar. Does it another 2 months to receipt all of them. April -receipting completes
June- biometrics completes
July/Aug/Sept : how many GCS can be allocated for eb2 eb3.


Can total 2010 eb2 eb3 be cleared by Sept 2021?
Any may be q1 2011?

[alpha0]

15-1133 is also no longer in use. Not sure if we can still use the old ones. Has anyone got approved with old SOC code(as in PERM)?

My lawyer used old obsolete soc code while filing 485 and i had no issues in interview and got my GC last year.

[superuser]

Extension / Over-Stay

Hello Gurus,

Could you please provide a quick thoughts on following scenario that one of my friend is going through?

My friend and his wife got greened 3-4 months back in EB3 category. My friend's mother-in-law came to USA sometime around January last year. since they were expecting a baby. They had to extend her stay due to covid and they applied for extension twice so far. The latest extended date is around 13-March-2021.

Q1: How many times she can apply for the extension given her MIL is in USA for about 1+ year now? The reason is they want to get her vaccinated before she departs for the mental peace?
Q2: What are the future consequences, if she over-stays beyond 13-March-2021 and gets vaccinated and goes back to India?

Moderators, please help move this thread to appropriate place to respect the subject of the threads?

[idliman]

Extension / Over-Stay

Hello Gurus,

Could you please provide a quick thoughts on following scenario that one of my friend is going through?

My friend and his wife got greened 3-4 months back in EB3 category. My friend's mother-in-law came to USA sometime around January last year. since they were expecting a baby. They had to extend her stay due to covid and they applied for extension twice so far. The latest extended date is around 13-March-2021.

Q1: How many times she can apply for the extension given her MIL is in USA for about 1+ year now? The reason is they want to get her vaccinated before she departs for the mental peace?
Q2: What are the future consequences, if she over-stays beyond 13-March-2021 and gets vaccinated and goes back to India?

Moderators, please help move this thread to appropriate place to respect the subject of the threads?

If you overstay B2 visa for even one day (I-94 date), per law the multiple entry B2 visa will be automatically cancelled under INA Section 222(g) and you have to go back the US embassy or Consulate in home country and reapply.

Article 40.68 Aliens subject to INA 222(g).
An alien who, under the provisions of INA 222(g), has voided a nonimmigrant visa by remaining in the United States beyond the period of authorized stay is ineligible for a new nonimmigrant visa unless the alien complies with the requirements in 22 CFR 41.101 (b) or (c) regarding the place of application.

Article 41.101 Place of application.
(b) Place of application for persons subject to INA 222(g). Notwithstanding the requirements of paragraph (a) of this section, an alien whose prior nonimmigrant visa has been voided pursuant to INA 222(g), who is applying for a new nonimmigrant visa, shall make application at a consular office which has jurisdiction in or for the country of the alien's nationality unless extraordinary circumstances have been determined to exist with respect to that alien as set forth in paragraph (c) of this section.
(c) Exceptions based on extraordinary circumstances. (1) An alien physician

You might think of leaving and reentering the country via Canada / Mexico. But that is dangerous especially when your friend's MIL had stayed in the country for close to 12 months. Usually the CBP officer letting you inside the country on B2 / tourist visa looks whether someone has "immigration intent". If you are spending more time in USA than your home country in the last 12 months, they will most likely deny entry or cancel Visa.

You can do I-539 more than 2 times. But I am not sure how successful you will be. First time extension during COVID is fine. I would think the chance of 2nd extension will be rare.

Staying more than 1 year on B2 can cause future complications. She better stay in India for quite some time (1 or 2 years) before trying to enter USA again.

You might want to get legal opinion from some Law firm as you are playing with fire. These are extraordinary situations because of COVID. They might know whether people were allowed to do 2nd extension or some extraordinary clause in law.

Sorry. The law is very blunt. It treats 1 day violation and 179 day violation the same way. Beyond 180 days, one gets a 3 year bar.

[qesehmk]

Extension / Over-Stay

Hello Gurus,

Could you please provide a quick thoughts on following scenario that one of my friend is going through?

My friend and his wife got greened 3-4 months back in EB3 category. My friend's mother-in-law came to USA sometime around January last year. since they were expecting a baby. They had to extend her stay due to covid and they applied for extension twice so far. The latest extended date is around 13-March-2021.

Q1: How many times she can apply for the extension given her MIL is in USA for about 1+ year now? The reason is they want to get her vaccinated before she departs for the mental peace?
Q2: What are the future consequences, if she over-stays beyond 13-March-2021 and gets vaccinated and goes back to India?

Moderators, please help move this thread to appropriate place to respect the subject of the threads?

I think you just need to find a lawyer and you can get B1 extension on medical ground. COVID or no COVID.

Getting a visa next time will always be difficult if you overstay or get too many extensions even for valid reasons. Remember visa as well as entry to US is a discretionary thing. That's why my advice is - be 100% honest and then do what you need to do. If in worst case an emergency arises or she accidentally overstays ICE is not going to come and pick her up. But of course the best thing to do is be on the right side of law and get an immigration lawyer and a doctor to help you get an extension.

p.s. - I believe the last COVID bill has declared an emergency and nobody is going to accrue unlawful presence until COVID emergency is lifted. Again ask a lawyer.

[newyorker123]

General Noob question:
Does I485 processing time (and GC issuance time) depend only on I485 receipt date ? [Assuming FAD is current]
Or,
- does it depend on priority date ?
- does it depend on EB1 vs EB2 vs EB3 ?

Just a bump. Anyone has any idea about this ?

[superuser]

If you overstay B2 visa for even one day (I-94 date), per law the multiple entry B2 visa will be automatically cancelled under INA Section 222(g) and you have to go back the US embassy or Consulate in home country and reapply.



You might think of leaving and reentering the country via Canada / Mexico. But that is dangerous especially when your friend's MIL had stayed in the country for close to 12 months. Usually the CBP officer letting you inside the country on B2 / tourist visa looks whether someone has "immigration intent". If you are spending more time in USA than your home country in the last 12 months, they will most likely deny entry or cancel Visa.

You can do I-539 more than 2 times. But I am not sure how successful you will be. First time extension during COVID is fine. I would think the chance of 2nd extension will be rare.

Staying more than 1 year on B2 can cause future complications. She better stay in India for quite some time (1 or 2 years) before trying to enter USA again.

You might want to get legal opinion from some Law firm as you are playing with fire. These are extraordinary situations because of COVID. They might know whether people were allowed to do 2nd extension or some extraordinary clause in law.

Sorry. The law is very blunt. It treats 1 day violation and 179 day violation the same way. Beyond 180 days, one gets a 3 year bar.

I think you just need to find a lawyer and you can get B1 extension on medical ground. COVID or no COVID.

Getting a visa next time will always be difficult if you overstay or get too many extensions even for valid reasons. Remember visa as well as entry to US is a discretionary thing. That's why my advice is - be 100% honest and then do what you need to do. If in worst case an emergency arises or she accidentally overstays ICE is not going to come and pick her up. But of course the best thing to do is be on the right side of law and get an immigration lawyer and a doctor to help you get an extension.

p.s. - I believe the last COVID bill has declared an emergency and nobody is going to accrue unlawful presence until COVID emergency is lifted. Again ask a lawyer.

Big thank you to Q and idliman for the prompt and precise replies. I have passed on the info to my friend who will now be able to make the right call. Thumbs up to Q's and idliman's post.
p.s. - I tried giving star or thumbs up to the post but I couldn't find it so thought of writing it

[incredible]

Some times doing nothing is the right thing :-)

Quick question on this. I have submitted and got approved supplement -J from my current company. Got an RFE for medical and a specific question asking, if I was going to stay in the current company, if not submit new supplement-J. I am in discussions with a new company and potentially move in April. With my date only 15 days behind (02/11/2020), I may become current in April/May. Should I not file new supplement J and just go to the new company. I wont get another RFE now since I just responded to my RFE with "Yes" on the question (it is a truth in the current context, but may not be in a month from now). What is the suggestion in this case? Should I submit new supplement J or just not do anything, unless USCIS asks or issues GC.

[android09]

Quick question: Does everyone who submits a I-485J as part of the I-485 package receive a receipt notice for it ? I?m a first time I-485 filer in Oct 2020, and submitted my I-485, I-765, I-131, I-693, I-944 and I-485J. I?ve received receipts for I-485, I-765 and I-131 only. Do everyone receive I-485J receipts? What does it signify and should I be asking for it? I don?t intend to change my job anytime soon even if I get an EAD/AP card.

[gcconnect]

Quick question: Does everyone who submits a I-485J as part of the I-485 package receive a receipt notice for it ? I?m a first time I-485 filer in Oct 2020, and submitted my I-485, I-765, I-131, I-693, I-944 and I-485J. I?ve received receipts for I-485, I-765 and I-131 only. Do everyone receive I-485J receipts? What does it signify and should I be asking for it? I don?t intend to change my job anytime soon even if I get an EAD/AP card.

I received I-485J receipt after getting EAD ( Submitted I-485J as part of the I-485 in OCT 2020). IMHO need not worry much as the time lines are not consistent for receipts, Biometrics, EAD at this point of time. There are so many people still waiting for Biometrics and with in 2 to 4 months everything will be streamlined.

[kuku82]

Quick question: Does everyone who submits a I-485J as part of the I-485 package receive a receipt notice for it ? I?m a first time I-485 filer in Oct 2020, and submitted my I-485, I-765, I-131, I-693, I-944 and I-485J. I?ve received receipts for I-485, I-765 and I-131 only. Do everyone receive I-485J receipts? What does it signify and should I be asking for it? I don?t intend to change my job anytime soon even if I get an EAD/AP card.

FYI I got my receipt notice for 485j after 3 months of package filing. Still pending.

[qesehmk]

Big thank you to Q and idliman for the prompt and precise replies. I have passed on the info to my friend who will now be able to make the right call. Thumbs up to Q's and idliman's post.
p.s. - I tried giving star or thumbs up to the post but I couldn't find it so thought of writing it

No worries. All the very best.

[cool_guy_2004]

I would advise you against getting the medicals or sending it w/o an RFE. The USCIS will not honor it else everyone would start doing it. Ask your Doc to not sign it as yet as the Medicals need to be signed within 30 says of submission . TSC is going slow and the recent events in Texas might have delayed the RFEs.
Hang in , you will get your GC this Fiscal .
Best of luck

Thanks for your input.

[newsletter1978]

Hello everyone, just wanted to check if anyone is in the same boat as me. My wife got the appointment letter for her biometrics and her biometric was done on 2/19. I am the primary applicant, i have not received the biometrics appointment. We got current in March bulletin, how long does it take to get GC after you get current?

[Noesis]

Hello Guys,

I filed my EB3 Downgrade application (PD - Dec 2012) on 12/18 (reached TSC on 12/21) and have not heard anything after that. The checks have not been cashed yet. The only confirmation I have of the application is the tracking number. Can anyone please guide on what steps they took as it would be 60 days since application was received with no receipt numbers (whoever was/is in similar boat).? If I call USCIS Contact Center:800-375-5283 or Chat with Emma, what information could I provide other than the tracking number.?

Also off topic on H4 and EAD, my spouse's H4 and EAD applications are in process (Change of status from H1 B to H4) since May of 2020 with no update. Have called several times, raise a couple SRs to be only told that the biometric were requested but USCIS cannot control local ASCs and cannot provide when we would receive biometric application. Any advise on what could be done here.?

Thank you much;

Finally got the checks cashed today morning. Never felt this happy after someone took the money
Hopefully receipt numbers would follow soon, if not, then Hello Emma.!
Nothing on the H4 and H4 EAD though, still pending with the same status after multiple Inquiries, follow ups, SRs, calls, Chat.

[mesan123]

I received I-485J receipt after getting EAD ( Submitted I-485J as part of the I-485 in OCT 2020). IMHO need not worry much as the time lines are not consistent for receipts, Biometrics, EAD at this point of time. There are so many people still waiting for Biometrics and with in 2 to 4 months everything will be streamlined.

i too applied with 485-J. Didnot get my 485J reciept yet. Have EAD from Jan. Applied in Oct 2020

[aGCHopefull]

i too applied with 485-J. Didnot get my 485J reciept yet. Have EAD from Jan. Applied in Oct 2020

I'd also applied I485-J along with 485/765/131 in 1st week of October 2020. Have not received 485-J receipt yet. Also no biometric yet.