EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[H1b2006]

good job ak7419 soon ur gc will be at in your inbox

[suninphx]

Raised an SR and got standard response that they are reviewing the case and should hear from them in 90 days. In the meanwhile, I had to renew my combo card and got its approval last month.

Okay.. I have heard (no first hand experience) that contacting local representative offices sometime helps. May be worth exploring that option.
Are you being represented by a company attorney? Do they have follow up methods at their disposal?

All the very best!

[longwaitgigu]

Discussing RFE
I read in trackitt back in December, apperson with march 2013 eb3 got rfe for medicals
He already received ead and ap, applied on oct 2020 and PD 2010 is still waiting for receipt
Lol

[inspired_p]

Discussing RFE
I read in trackitt back in December, apperson with march 2013 eb3 got rfe for medicals
He already received ead and ap, applied on oct 2020 and PD 2010 is still waiting for receipt
Lol

Unfortunately they do not process the applications according to PDs .. they process FIFO ( read random in the lot received in the month)

[rocketfast]

I did not see anyone post I-485 data for 4th quarter.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr4.pdf

Looks like USCIS approved a total of 121,890 applications last year. Looks like Consular processing was around 15,283. So total approval = 137173. Wasting a total of 18,800 GCs as the total allocation for last year was 156,000.(Am I reading this right?)

Past reports:
Q1: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr1.pdf
Q2: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr2.pdf
Q3: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr3.pdf

[Zenzone]

Congrats on your EAD/AP approval. Welcome to the Trishanku status. Make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP thread to setup reminders for timely renewal in 6 months time.

Thanks man. I will definitely set-up those reminders. But for now, we also plan to renew our H1Bs....More revenue of attorneys and USCIS (the outcome everyone else wants)

[Zenzone]

For a category which has been moving few days every month for more than 2 years, it is a big ask to pass 2009, let alone 2010. 4 days is what it moved for February 2021. If you count from October 2020 for 5 months it moved 48 days.

It is a huge ask.

That's because its clear now that FB SO will be applied only in the last quarter or from May (at best). So why is it a huge ask to say EB2 will clear 2010. Visa numbers are there. If not, why would they even allow us to file? I understand the nervousness behind USCIS ability (given its shaky record) to be efficient and use atleast most of those SO visas in Q4. But to write them off completely, is a big mistake too. Let's take the middle ground, even if the PD moves to Sep-2010 and not Dec-2010, what's there to lose and feel its all gloom and doom. A year ago we were saying 2010 will take 7 years to clear and even to file?? My 2 cents here is no prediction no matter how outrageously optimistic or pathetically pessimistic can be correct entirely because USCIS has never been transparent. Truth is always somewhere in the middle but I'm more hopeful now because this admin. is sure to crack the whip on bringing back agency efficiencies. So even if 65% of SO is used actually, we are talking about significant movement in Q4 and that's based on data.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.

<Meerkat standing up from the cubicle>

Someone in May 2010 got an RFE?!

As others said, USCIS ki leela is only known to USCIS and there is usually no rhyme or reason, so hoping things move forward in the next few months.

[vsivarama]

As others said, USCIS ki leela is only known to USCIS and there is usually no rhyme or reason, so hoping things move forward in the next few months.

The only thing that brings hope to me is the USCIS projection of very minimal movement. They somehow seem to mix up between rapid and very little movement. It's usually the reverse of what they say ends up happening. And we had to take English proficiency tests like TOEFL to prove our English speaking skills.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

The only thing that brings hope to me is the USCIS projection of very minimal movement. They somehow seem to mix up between rapid and very little movement. It's usually the reverse of what they say ends up happening. And we had to take English proficiency tests like TOEFL to prove our English speaking skills.

HA ha ha ha!!

It always comes down to Accountability, right? If you or me tell someone in the office that yup I will get that done by the end of the week and continue to not do it for three weeks, we will probably get fired. USCIS/DoS can say "Rapid forward movement until January" and move the dates 2 weeks and there is no one to challenge that and hold their feet to their fire.

[newyorker123]

For people who have changed jobs recently, and need to restart their PERM process, does anyone envision any improvement in performance of PERM processing ?
Looks like they are taking 7-8+ months, and overall including prevailing wage etc it might take a year or more.
I sincerely hope this route gets faster with Biden admin.
Thoughts ?

[smuggymba]

May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.

I'm March 30th 2010 and I haven't gotten any RFE. On EAD since 2012.

[AceMan]

That's because its clear now that FB SO will be applied only in the last quarter or from May (at best). So why is it a huge ask to say EB2 will clear 2010. Visa numbers are there. If not, why would they even allow us to file? I understand the nervousness behind USCIS ability (given its shaky record) to be efficient and use atleast most of those SO visas in Q4. But to write them off completely, is a big mistake too. Let's take the middle ground, even if the PD moves to Sep-2010 and not Dec-2010, what's there to lose and feel its all gloom and doom. A year ago we were saying 2010 will take 7 years to clear and even to file?? My 2 cents here is no prediction no matter how outrageously optimistic or pathetically pessimistic can be correct entirely because USCIS has never been transparent. Truth is always somewhere in the middle but I'm more hopeful now because this admin. is sure to crack the whip on bringing back agency efficiencies. So even if 65% of SO is used actually, we are talking about significant movement in Q4 and that's based on data.

Let us forget the spillover. india is expected to get minimum 2803 visas for Eb2 in 2021. Did they even attempt to issue that so far? Covid stains are attacking the country from different places. Even then morons are sending medical RFE’s

[rabp77]

The only thing that brings hope to me is the USCIS projection of very minimal movement. They somehow seem to mix up between rapid and very little movement. It's usually the reverse of what they say ends up happening. And we had to take English proficiency tests like TOEFL to prove our English speaking skills.

They have been providing potential movement projections every quarter. And the movement has been pretty consistent with their projections. Assuming the last projection was till end of this quarter, the earliest we can expect dates to start moving is in the april bulletin. The april bulletin and the projections provided in april is the next thing to watch for.

[rabp77]

Let us forget the spillover. india is expected to get minimum 2803 visas for Eb2 in 2021. Did they even attempt to issue that so far? Covid stains are attacking the country from different places. Even then morons are sending medical RFE’s

if you see the last visa inventory release (which is quite old now), the inventory was around 1-2 thousand per month on an average for EB2 india in 2009. Assuming this approximately holds true even today, around 5K visa available for EB2 india without horizontal spiillover will produce around 3-4 months movement in EB2I. This is exactly what we saw in terms of movement since september of last year.

So data clearly points to the fact that movement so far is purely based on spill over from FB that has been spread across all countries, and no horizontal spillover has been applied so far for EB2 and EB3. But going by past ROW applications for EB2 and EB3, we should see a substantial horizontal spillover being applied in Q3 or Q4 of the FY (april-September 2021). So its reasonable to expect pace of movement to pick up significantly in the 3rd or 4th quarter.

[rocketfast]

Based purely on Trackitt data (and comparing it to last quarter of 2020's trackitt data and eventual real approvals), USCIS has approved a total of 30,000 I-485 applications in the last 4 months.

[suninphx]

Has anyone come across this? What does this even means?
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orAOSAndDA.pdf

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Has anyone come across this? What does this even means?
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orAOSAndDA.pdf

Don't believe this concerns people seeking EAD as part of an I-485 for EB. This could be addressing people seeking asylum (https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/...rt-a-chapter-5).

[suninphx]

Don't believe this concerns people seeking EAD as part of an I-485 for EB. This could be addressing people seeking asylum (https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/...rt-a-chapter-5).

Ok thanks for the link.

Saw this on trackitt and document mentions c(9) category - so was wondering

[vsivarama]

Has anyone come across this? What does this even means?
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orAOSAndDA.pdf

I just checked my i485 form. INA-245 is not checked. So I think it is safe to say that this does not apply to us.

[vsivarama]

Saw this on trackitt and document mentions c(9) category - so was wondering

The article shared states "on 8 CFR 274a.12(c)(9) (pending application for adjustment of status under INA 245)". so clearly it is not across the board c(9).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Saw another user on trackitt with PD 4/10/2010 getting an RFE in the March 2010 RFE thread. Hopeful that they are ready to start clearing backlog until at least May 1, 2010 where it reached 9 years back.

[AceMan]

Saw another user on trackitt with PD 4/10/2010 getting an RFE in the March 2010 RFE thread. Hopeful that they are ready to start clearing backlog until at least May 1, 2010 where it reached 9 years back.

Till May 2010 the pending inventory from October 2009 should be around 7000. 9 years out, we are yet to reach that point.

[phkb2020]

if you see the last visa inventory release (which is quite old now), the inventory was around 1-2 thousand per month on an average for EB2 india in 2009. Assuming this approximately holds true even today, around 5K visa available for EB2 india without horizontal spiillover will produce around 3-4 months movement in EB2I. This is exactly what we saw in terms of movement since september of last year.

So data clearly points to the fact that movement so far is purely based on spill over from FB that has been spread across all countries, and no horizontal spillover has been applied so far for EB2 and EB3. But going by past ROW applications for EB2 and EB3, we should see a substantial horizontal spillover being applied in Q3 or Q4 of the FY (april-September 2021). So its reasonable to expect pace of movement to pick up significantly in the 3rd or 4th quarter.

Is there consensus within the forum that Horizontal spillover for EB2/EB3 is not being applied due to Trump EO? Because surely they are applying horizontal spillover for EB1 that has facilitated EB1I dates to move multiple years and on track to be current in next few months?

On a side note - 2012 AOS filer here as well with Feb 2010 priority date. Not a single RFE so far in last 9 years !
I did get an RFE for EAD renewal this year (they didn't like the pics we submitted). Somehow, that resulted in a 1 year EAD versus 2 year, which means I have to apply for renewal again next month.

[H1b2006]

USCIS started transferring pending 485 applications to local offices to adjudicate in timely fashion -- update by Immigration lawyer Robert weber in Linkedin
Good to hear. Link : https://www.linkedin.com/in/bobwebber