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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #8501
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Yes, no numbers as of yesterday
    I have heard from a lot of people that they have not received the receipt numbers yet. I think goes back to previous post about slowing things down. It could be because of lack of resources or just plainly going slow, per proclamation. Hang in there and you should get it soon.

  2. #8502
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    Jan VB is out

    FA
    EB2 I - 8th oct 2009
    EB3 I - 22nd Mar 2010

    FAD
    EB2 l - 15th May 2011
    EB3 I - 1st Jan 2014

  3. #8503
    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Yes. Just use the chat service... keep typing agent... they will connect to live agent. Give your A#. They ask for all other demographic info such as name, address etc. Then they give the receipt numbers.
    Thanks for the tip. Will try that.

  4. #8504
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_fairy View Post
    FA
    EB2 I - 8th oct 2009
    EB3 I - 22nd Mar 2010

    FAD
    EB2 l - 15th May 2011
    EB3 I - 1st Jan 2014
    All geared toward giving back as much visas possible to FB quota. And may be by design.

  5. #8505
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    All geared toward giving back as much visas possible to FB quota. And may be by design.
    But they don't go back to Family. It does not work like that as some guru mentioned few months ago.

  6. #8506
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    All geared toward giving back as much visas possible to FB quota. And may be by design.
    It has been explained a few times here, spilled over visas from FB to EB cannot go back to FB unless there is some change in law.

    They are trying to make EB1 current, which will help EB2 down the road. More importantly their freeze on accepting DF from Jan onwards could be an indicator that they have enough applications in the hopper to actually start approving cases. If we start seeing more GC approvals for EB2 in late 2009-early 2010, it could be an indicator that they are serious about using the spillover, if not we are pretty screwed.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  7. #8507
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    They are trying to make EB1 current, which will help EB2 down the road. More importantly their freeze on accepting DF from Jan onwards could be an indicator that they have enough applications in the hopper to actually start approving cases. If we start seeing more GC approvals for EB2 in late 2009-early 2010, it could be an indicator that they are serious about using the spillover, if not we are pretty screwed.
    Freezing the acceptance via DF charts looks random to me. A lot of people are yet to get receipts for applications filed in October (myself included). How do you think they came to the conclusion that they have received enough petitions? By counting the number of mails received?

  8. #8508
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB22010Dec View Post
    But they don't go back to Family. It does not work like that as some guru mentioned few months ago.
    Okay.. thanks for that info.

  9. #8509
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    It has been explained a few times here, spilled over visas from FB to EB cannot go back to FB unless there is some change in law.

    They are trying to make EB1 current, which will help EB2 down the road. More importantly their freeze on accepting DF from Jan onwards could be an indicator that they have enough applications in the hopper to actually start approving cases. If we start seeing more GC approvals for EB2 in late 2009-early 2010, it could be an indicator that they are serious about using the spillover, if not we are pretty screwed.
    Eb1 will become current within the next couple of bulletins as it pretty much sure the applicants on that side would be very minimum beyond April 2020. In the mean time the centers would have enough time to consolidate the applications they have received so far in October till December. There are lot of people yet to receive the receipts, and apparently they would have received enough numbers so far for this FY.

    For Eb3 they have applications from 2 years back till 1st April 2010. I thought they would hit 1st April this bulletin, but that is going to be the date for next bulletin.

    It is obvious with filing dates moved to Jan 2015, they would have more than 100,000 EB3 downgraded applications. With the new admin I hope we can see the demand data again which was last released in July 2018.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  10. #8510
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    Freezing the acceptance via DF charts looks random to me. A lot of people are yet to get receipts for applications filed in October (myself included). How do you think they came to the conclusion that they have received enough petitions? By counting the number of mails received?
    I am being very honest with my assumption here, but if we can track the application package as being delivered, they should too. And the day the package delivered is obviously critically important from the 180 day clock perspective, so I believe they will be tracking that, just that they have not been able to process all that for the receipts. So they should have a fair indicator of how many applications they have received and do some basic math.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  11. #8511
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    I am being very honest with my assumption here, but if we can track the application package as being delivered, they should too. And the day the package delivered is obviously critically important from the 180 day clock perspective, so I believe they will be tracking that, just that they have not been able to process all that for the receipts. So they should have a fair indicator of how many applications they have received and do some basic math.
    That makes sense. Did not think about the 180 day rule. They may have a basic tracking mechanism.

  12. #8512
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    The "soft" Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2021 have been published by DOS here.

    For EB they are the following:

    Preference All Countries Worldwide
    E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
    E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
    E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
    E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
    E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602

    Total ----------- 18,340 - 262,000

    *The EW category is currently entitled to up to 10,000 of this total.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  13. #8513
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The "soft" Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2021 have been published by DOS here.

    For EB they are the following:

    Preference All Countries Worldwide
    E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
    E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
    E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
    E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
    E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602

    Total ----------- 18,340 - 262,000

    *The EW category is currently entitled to up to 10,000 of this total.
    Thanks Spec!

    I do think that USCIS will make every effort to allocate the extra GCs. At this point they are focussing on sorting and documenting all applications. Also giving GCs to existing applicants till April 2020 may generate negative attention while the current admin is in power.

    If this theory is correct, they will be quitely processing new applications while preparing to give GCs to the folks who are already adjudicated. Sometime around June, they will open the flood gates for the GCs allocation. By that time the new admin would have settled in and also may have provided direction.

    "Hope is a good thing!"

  14. #8514
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The "soft" Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2021 have been published by DOS here.

    For EB they are the following:

    Preference All Countries Worldwide
    E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
    E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
    E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
    E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
    E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602

    Total ----------- 18,340 - 262,000

    *The EW category is currently entitled to up to 10,000 of this total.
    Thanks Spec. I was waiting for this.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  15. #8515
    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Thanks Spec!

    I do think that USCIS will make every effort to allocate the extra GCs. At this point they are focussing on sorting and documenting all applications. Also giving GCs to existing applicants till April 2020 may generate negative attention while the current admin is in power.

    If this theory is correct, they will be quitely processing new applications while preparing to give GCs to the folks who are already adjudicated. Sometime around June, they will open the flood gates for the GCs allocation. By that time the new admin would have settled in and also may have provided direction.

    "Hope is a good thing!"
    If the mandatory interview is tossed out, then the chances of utilizing the GC numbers is very high for 2021.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  16. #8516
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    If the mandatory interview is tossed out, then the chances of utilizing the GC numbers is very high for 2021.
    Let’s hope. Even then the potential of massive wastages loom large.

  17. #8517
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    If the mandatory interview is tossed out, then the chances of utilizing the GC numbers is very high for 2021.
    Is interview mandatory for all AOS or is it exempt for people who applied before ~2015. We applied in 2012 and got our EADs back then EB2-I .
    Would we need to appear for an interview ?

  18. #8518
    Hello

    Can anyone please guide me on which address to use to submit I131 and I765 together for the first time?
    I485 receipt starts with MSC% and we are based in NJ.

    Thanks!
    =========================================
    EB2-I PD -> 19-Oct-2009 | EAD/AP since -> 30-Apr-2012 | GC -> 08-APR-2021

  19. #8519
    Quote Originally Posted by Moveon View Post
    Is interview mandatory for all AOS or is it exempt for people who applied before ~2015. We applied in 2012 and got our EADs back then EB2-I .
    Would we need to appear for an interview ?
    You guys appear to be among the forgotten lot by USCIS. The list Spec provided had more than 5200 visas for India in Eb2 which they could have applied already till December 2009 end. There are about 8000 total people with pending AOS in Eb2 till May 2010.

    Current actions by USCIS appears to let field offices to waive AOS interviews depending on the local situation.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  20. #8520
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    You guys appear to be among the forgotten lot by USCIS. The list Spec provided had more than 5200 visas for India in Eb2 which they could have applied already till December 2009 end. There are about 8000 total people with pending AOS in Eb2 till May 2010.

    Current actions by USCIS appears to let field offices to waive AOS interviews depending on the local situation.
    We definitely are the forgotten lot

    I am still waiting for RFE as if it were my green card. Have been current for the past two months.
    TSC; EB2-I: PD: 17-SEP-09; I-485 RD: 25-APR-12

  21. #8521
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    You guys appear to be among the forgotten lot by USCIS. The list Spec provided had more than 5200 visas for India in Eb2 which they could have applied already till December 2009 end. There are about 8000 total people with pending AOS in Eb2 till May 2010.

    Current actions by USCIS appears to let field offices to waive AOS interviews depending on the local situation.
    You raise an interesting point. Based on how dates are progressing, I think CO is taking an extremely conservative approach, by assuming there will be no vertical/horizontal SO and distributing the 5,200 visas for EB2-I in a prorated manner. Sadly, if this approach doesn’t change soon enough, they are bound to waste visas at the end of the FY.

  22. #8522
    Thanks Spec.

    I have trust and faith in the agencies and their employees who will not waste a single visa in FY21. Just waiting for 01202021 12 Noon...so that the printers will start rumbling.. we need 1000 GCs/day to be printed to achieve 262K target by Sept 30th.

  23. #8523
    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    Thanks Spec.

    I have trust and faith in the agencies and their employees who will not waste a single visa in FY21. Just waiting for 01202021 12 Noon...so that the printers will start rumbling.. we need 1000 GCs/day to be printed to achieve 262K target by Sept 30th.
    I will believe it when I see it. We continue to get screwed over every visa bulletin. There should not have been any reason to inch it week by week when thousands of visas are available but that's what they are doing. I no longer believe all the talk about trying to toe the line of the current admin, it's in the law and they could just allocate it in an even fashion throughout the year and not pile it up in the end. I would have given the benefit of doubt for the Oct and Nov bulletins, but they have continued to do it for another two months after the clown show got beaten.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  24. #8524
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    If the mandatory interview is tossed out, then the chances of utilizing the GC numbers is very high for 2021.
    Anecdotal - My coworker (EB1CROW) was waiting for his interview details and was pleasantly surprised last week to see the cards in the mail. It looks like more and more interviews are waived.

  25. #8525
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    I will believe it when I see it. We continue to get screwed over every visa bulletin. There should not have been any reason to inch it week by week when thousands of visas are available but that's what they are doing. I no longer believe all the talk about trying to toe the line of the current admin, it's in the law and they could just allocate it in an even fashion throughout the year and not pile it up in the end. I would have given the benefit of doubt for the Oct and Nov bulletins, but they have continued to do it for another two months after the clown show got beaten.
    I still have hope that they will advance the dates significantly from the March Bulletin when they have the departments fully staffed. No one wants their heads on the chopping block as Trump has been firing people in his lasts days as President . What is important is to have the RFEs issued as most people on the 2012 EAD have their medicals expired.That way the GCs can be issued once the new administration takes over .

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