EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty,

I saw that as well (when the site would actually load).

As far as I am concerned, the date governs filing an I-485, of which EAD and AP are a benefit.

I'd go as far as to say anyone only filing for EAD/AP will have the application rejected. There has to be a basis for it. For filing based on an I-485, it's (c)(9) if I remember correctly.

There are a few other totally incorrect posts as well, but I won't give them the oxygen of publicity.

Thanks Spec. That's what I thought but just got little confused because of conflicting posts on trackitt.

[Spectator]

Spec or Gurus,

I am confused with the current bulletin. My PD is April 17 2009. I filed my 485 and got EAD/AP in Sept 2015. Is the current bulletin helpful to me in any way? Can I expect to get GC ? Do I do any SR/Senator/Congressman etc. to expedite approval? Or does it not apply to me at all ?

saagar_is_cool,

The new DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS are of no concern to you, since you have already filed your I-485.

You now have to wait for the APPLICATION FINAL ACTION DATES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES to surpass your PD, at which time your I-485 will become eligible for approval.

PS I assume you filed in Sept 2014, when the dates were current for your PD.

[anuprab]

saagar_is_cool,

The new DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS are of no concern to you, since you have already filed your I-485.

You now have to wait for the APPLICATION FINAL ACTION DATES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES to surpass your PD, at which time your I-485 will become eligible for approval.

PS I assume you filed in Sept 2014, when the dates were current for your PD.

Spec,

I have a question. Way back in 2007 my husband and I filed under my primary application with EB3 -I PD June 2006 date. After that his company has filed his EB2 case with May 2010 PD. Now he becomes eligible to go on his own and have job portability. We didn't want to kill the EB2 option so he didn't move even though he has filed for AOS in 2007. Can we do interfiling based on this VB, what happens when EB3 final dates reach 2006. Can USCIS then consider my application as primary?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Spec, Just curious if the USCIS will 'Approve' approximately 12K Visas every month (including Fall Across and Spill Overs)? This would mean a steady movement of 'Approval Dates' every month till say June every year and then swing based on the true-up of Visas to the Per Country Limit?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Spec,

I have a question. Way back in 2007 my husband and I filed under my primary application with EB3 -I PD June 2006 date. After that his company has filed his EB2 case with May 2010 PD. Now he becomes eligible to go on his own and have job portability. We didn't want to kill the EB2 option so he didn't move even though he has filed for AOS in 2007. Can we do interfiling based on this VB, what happens when EB3 final dates reach 2006. Can USCIS then consider my application as primary?

Looks like you are stuck in both the ques. Just wait it out for 3 months and you will know the trend of Spill Overs

[Aurora]

Hi All,

Congrats all for the new VB dates. Don't know if this is right thread to post this.

Below is the list of doc's and other stuff required to file I485. Appreciate if you can append/update if anything else required.

The only documents required for filing 485 are as follws .

1. G-325 Information Sheet- Each adult,
2. Six passport pictures for each family members
3. Sealed Envelop of Medical Examination. For USCIS authorized doctors. (If you are sending medicals)
4. Copy of all previous visa approval notice and related document (i.e. I-20 for F-1 visa holder, I-797 for E-2, H-1B…)
5. Copy of the latest I-94 (US entry arrival /departure record)
6. Copy of all the pages of passport, including empty pages
7. Copy of Driver’s license, if any
8. Copy of Birth Certificate or Family Register showing name, date of birth, place of birth and parent names
9. Evidence of marital status (Marriage License, Divorce Certificate, if applicable)
10. Filing Checks for each family members: Payable to U.S. Department of Homeland Security
• $1070 for adults (per each)
• $635 for under 14 years child


Thanks!

[Spectator]

Spec, Just curious if the USCIS will 'Approve' approximately 12K Visas every month (including Fall Across and Spill Overs)? This would mean a steady movement of 'Approval Dates' every month till say June every year and then swing based on the true-up of Visas to the Per Country Limit?

By law, there is a limit of 27% of total EB visas in each of the first 3 quarters.

That equates to 37,800 per quarter, or 12,600 per month.

By regulation, not to exceed, in any month of a fiscal year, 10% of the world-wide total made available under INA 203 (a), (b) and (c) plus any balance remaining from authorizations for preceding months in the same fiscal year.

That would equate to a maximum of 14,000 for October.

Those limits, as it relates to EB have to account for all approvals (AOS and CP) for all Categories and Countries.

I'm starting to suspect part of the reason EB2-I is so retrogressed for October is that a large number of cases for other Categories and Countries are also waiting for October (the new FY) to resume approvals and there may not be the scope to allocate extra visas to EB2-I in October itself.

That's very speculative by the way. My opinion may change depending on what I see during the remainder of this week and the beginning of next week.

[kuku82]

I assume employment verification letter is required?

Hi All,

Congrats all for the new VB dates. Don't know if this is right thread to post this.

Below is the list of doc's and other stuff required to file I485. Appreciate if you can append/update if anything else required.

The only documents required for filing 485 are as follws .

1. G-325 Information Sheet- Each adult,
2. Six passport pictures for each family members
3. Sealed Envelop of Medical Examination. For USCIS authorized doctors. (If you are sending medicals)
4. Copy of all previous visa approval notice and related document (i.e. I-20 for F-1 visa holder, I-797 for E-2, H-1B…)
5. Copy of the latest I-94 (US entry arrival /departure record)
6. Copy of all the pages of passport, including empty pages
7. Copy of Driver’s license, if any
8. Copy of Birth Certificate or Family Register showing name, date of birth, place of birth and parent names
9. Evidence of marital status (Marriage License, Divorce Certificate, if applicable)
10. Filing Checks for each family members: Payable to U.S. Department of Homeland Security
• $1070 for adults (per each)
• $635 for under 14 years child


Thanks!

[suninphx]

Spec- is there a possibility that DoS knows about large FB visas coming to EB? I just can't get my head around timing of this move by them. There must be something which has prompted this. Any speculations?

[kuku82]

Spec - are you hinting they could in theory maintain the July2011 date throughout the FY or even advance it using this?

It isn't however a position that can reasonably be held once the new AOS applications have been received and counted (but that may take some time - wink, wink). It may be an argument they can use at the beginning of each FY, or when SO is released. That should be sufficient to keep the dates moving forward quite nicely.

[SV2007]

Hi All / Spec / YTEleven - EB3I approval/ acceptance dates are a major disappointment. As a lot of us are anticipating Fall across to EB3I in 2016 and the approval dates to move into 2007, an acceptance date of somewhere in 2008 would have been reasonable. EB3I retrogression is also another shocker. What would you think is the rationale behind the poor movement for EB3I.

Where can we anticipate EB3I approval and acceptance dates to end up in the next 3 - 4 quarters? Any thoughts?

[gs1968]

Suninphx, I am one of those who will qualify to file for I-485 with PD of May 20, 2011. So thanks for the wishes. I don't know why USCIS is adopting this strategy, but I am not complaining.

Congratulations from a fellow physician! Quite a few of us keep coming back everyday just to hear good things happen to patient people in this forum.

To Spec and other seniors

One of the points I wanted to note is a similar process being applied to the family based categories also. The DoS has always maintained that demand in other countries is hard to estimate thereby resulting in suboptimal utilization of the FB visa ceiling of 226000 annually. The advancement of both acceptance and approval dates of FB categories needs to be closely monitored as spillover to EB categories may be decreased due to more efficient distribution of FB visas. Although the EB category has benefited from this, my feeling is that this two-tier bulletin system is to help move the FB categories along.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Spec- is there a possibility that DoS knows about large FB visas coming to EB? I just can't get my head around timing of this move by them. There must be something which has prompted this. Any speculations?

I suspect that the 'Acceptance Date' is a double edged sword. While it does give relief to most backlogged countries in EB Category, it also reduces the Spillover of FB Visas to EB because the FB Category also has 'Acceptance Date' and that would result in maximum usage of FB Visas leaving no Spillover to EB Category.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

By law, there is a limit of 27% of total EB visas in each of the first 3 quarters.

That equates to 37,800 per quarter, or 12,600 per month.

By regulation, not to exceed, in any month of a fiscal year, 10% of the world-wide total made available under INA 203 (a), (b) and (c) plus any balance remaining from authorizations for preceding months in the same fiscal year.

That would equate to a maximum of 14,000 for October.

Those limits, as it relates to EB have to account for all approvals (AOS and CP) for all Categories and Countries.

I'm starting to suspect part of the reason EB2-I is so retrogressed for October is that a large number of cases for other Categories and Countries are also waiting for October (the new FY) to resume approvals and there may not be the scope to allocate extra visas to EB2-I in October itself.

That's very speculative by the way. My opinion may change depending on what I see during the remainder of this week and the beginning of next week.

I agree with you about large number of cases in ROW that are waiting for approval in EB2. But that is not the case with ROW EB3, which is almost current and the very fact that they opened the flood gates for India in EB3 for FY15 means that the situation will continue into the FY16. But apart from this, I do not see anything alarming in Retrogression of Dates in October VB as it is a standard feature of every October VB.

The Question I had was - If they have targeted to 'Approve' say 14K Visas in October, what will happen if they do not have enough cases within the Current PD's of respective Categories? Will they SO/FA and use up the balance Visas in October itself or carry them over to November? If they carry them over, till what month will they carry over before SO/FA to Backlogged countries? Will it be a monthly feature or Quarterly feature?

[Spectator]

I agree with you about large number of cases in ROW that are waiting for approval in EB2. But that is not the case with ROW EB3, which is almost current and the very fact that they opened the flood gates for India in EB3 for FY15 means that the situation will continue into the FY16. But apart from this, I do not see anything alarming in Retrogression of Dates in October VB as it is a standard feature of every October VB.

The Question I had was - If they have targeted to 'Approve' say 14K Visas in October, what will happen if they do not have enough cases within the Current PD's of respective Categories? Will they SO/FA and use up the balance Visas in October itself or carry them over to November? If they carry them over, till what month will they carry over before SO/FA to Backlogged countries? Will it be a monthly feature or Quarterly feature?

The last time EB2-I saw an October VB COD that was retrogressed from the September VB COD was in 2008. For EB3-I, it is sometime before 2005. This time it probably reflects that the EB3-I COD was pushed far ahead of what the available visa numbers were in September. As a result, many cases will fall through to FY2016 necessitating retrogression.

In October, DOS/USCIS can't approve cases that are not earlier than the Final Action COD.

So even, for instance, if approvals in EB3 for other Countries were low in October, only EB3-I cases with a PD earlier than 08MAR04 could receive approvals. I'm not convinced that will be the case - the last USCIS Inventory showed a fairly large number of EB3-WW cases awaiting final adjudication.

The law talks about potential SO release only per quarter. It remains to be seen whether DOS will move to a quarterly SO release model. There are dangers, as well as advantages to doing so.

The changes do nothing to make it easier to determine the numbers of cases in a situation where the COD is Current or near current. That is determined by USCIS processing the I-140 petitions, which in turn is largely determined by DOL's processing of PERM (for most EB2/EB3 cases).

Even if USCIS start passing information about approved I-140 to DOS, there are a large number of pending I-140 yet to be adjudicated (of Category and Country unknown to us). The number has generally been rising over the last 2 years. It reached a low point in September 2013 (7.2k) and stood at 33k at the end of Q3 FY2015 according to USCIS own figures. It hasn't really been that high since 2009. If those numbers come down, then the numbers of I-485 in the Inventory will rise where an I-485 has been already been, or is, filed (since the Inventory only shows I-485 associated with an approved I-140 petition).

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The last time EB2-I saw an October VB COD that was retrogressed from the September VB COD was in 2008. For EB3-I, it is sometime before 2005. This time it probably reflects that the EB3-I COD was pushed far ahead of what the available visa numbers were in September. As a result, many cases will fall through to FY2016 necessitating retrogression.

In October, DOS/USCIS can't approve cases that are not earlier than the Final Action COD.

So even, for instance, if approvals in EB3 for other Countries were low in October, only EB3-I cases with a PD earlier than 08MAR04 could receive approvals. I'm not convinced that will be the case - the last USCIS Inventory showed a fairly large number of EB3-WW cases awaiting final adjudication.

The law talks about potential SO release only per quarter. It remains to be seen whether DOS will move to a quarterly SO release model. There are dangers, as well as advantages to doing so.

The changes do nothing to make it easier to determine the numbers of cases in a situation where the COD is Current or near current. That is determined by USCIS processing the I-140 petitions, which in turn is largely determined by DOL's processing of PERM (for most EB2/EB3 cases).

Even if USCIS start passing information about approved I-140 to DOS, there are a large number of pending I-140 yet to be adjudicated (of Category and Country unknown to us). The number has generally been rising over the last 2 years. It reached a low point in September 2013 (7.2k) and stood at 33k at the end of Q3 FY2015 according to USCIS own figures. It hasn't really been that high since 2009. If those numbers come down, then the numbers of I-485 in the Inventory will rise where an I-485 has been already been, or is, filed (since the Inventory only shows I-485 associated with an approved I-140 petition).

I agree. Given the still opaque new process, I somehow get the impression that the 'Acceptance Date' is prospective in nature and 'Approval Date' is retrospective. The reason I think it is retrospective is because that is the date the USCIS seems to say that they have 'Approved' cases before that PD. The 'Acceptance Date' sounds like the USCIS is telling us they are planning to 'Approve' cases upto that date in the next 1 year (because Medicals is valid only for 1 year). I also think the USCIS is delaying adjudicating the I-140 cases intentionally so that DOS can clear off the heavily backlogged cases and get past the July 2007 surge cases.

[SV2007]

From your analysis, the only item that is falling out of place is EB3I acceptance date of July 2005. Seniors on this thread and also the gc tracker on this site, predict EB3I to move unto 2007 in 2016. Infact, it appears the chances of EB3I moving into 2007 is higher than EB2I moving into 2011 in the year 2016. Shouldn't EB3I acceptance date be prospectively set to somewhere in 2008?

[jimmar]

Sorry if i'm posting in the wrong thread, would like to get some thoughts from experts.

My priority date is May-2011 (EB2), wife priority date is Oct-2009 (EB2). We both are FTE's of two different companies. Is there any advantage of filing two 485's, one with my wife as primary and second one with myself as primary? I think two 485's will give us more flexibility with future job situations (if one of us looses the job or stop working, we can continue on with other persons 485). Please share your thoughts.

As per some other forum posts, USCIS will merge both cases at the time of approving the one that has the earliest priority date, so as far as the processing is concerned, it shouldn't cause any delays.

[imdeng]

You are right that EB3I acceptance date of July 2005 is too conservative. However, most of EB3I before 2007 should have fils 485 already courtesy of the 07/07 event - so perhaps it does not make much difference.

The actual approval date should go into 2007 or quite near it in FY16. That's what matters for EB3I. EB2I is a different case as folks in late 2010 and 2011 will have the first opportunity to file 485.

From your analysis, the only item that is falling out of place is EB3I acceptance date of July 2005. Seniors on this thread and also the gc tracker on this site, predict EB3I to move unto 2007 in 2016. Infact, it appears the chances of EB3I moving into 2007 is higher than EB2I moving into 2011 in the year 2016. Shouldn't EB3I acceptance date be prospectively set to somewhere in 2008?

[imdeng]

I would do both - but then I am extremely risk averse in immigration type matters.

Sorry if i'm posting in the wrong thread, would like to get some thoughts from experts.

My priority date is May-2011 (EB2), wife priority date is Oct-2009 (EB2). We both are FTE's of two different companies. Is there any advantage of filing two 485's, one with my wife as primary and second one with myself as primary? I think two 485's will give us more flexibility with future job situations (if one of us looses the job or stop working, we can continue on with other persons 485). Please share your thoughts.

As per some other forum posts, USCIS will merge both cases at the time of approving the one that has the earliest priority date, so as far as the processing is concerned, it shouldn't cause any delays.

[qesehmk]

I'd second imdeng. It doesn't hurt to file two separate and be primary and secondary on them - just in case.

Sorry if i'm posting in the wrong thread, would like to get some thoughts from experts.

My priority date is May-2011 (EB2), wife priority date is Oct-2009 (EB2). We both are FTE's of two different companies. Is there any advantage of filing two 485's, one with my wife as primary and second one with myself as primary? I think two 485's will give us more flexibility with future job situations (if one of us looses the job or stop working, we can continue on with other persons 485). Please share your thoughts.

As per some other forum posts, USCIS will merge both cases at the time of approving the one that has the earliest priority date, so as far as the processing is concerned, it shouldn't cause any delays.

[qesehmk]

Shouldn't EB3I acceptance date be prospectively set to somewhere in 2008?

Only if we knew the rationale behind the two tier system and what is going to drive the acceptance date cut off. DoS hasn't addressed the latter. The first is obvious but I'd still like to hear it from the horse's mouth.

So my 2 cents on the acceptance date - don't agonize too much over it. They are only marginally beneficial. The elephant in the room is country quota and overall limits.

[anuprab]

I'd second imdeng. It doesn't hurt to file two separate and be primary and secondary on them - just in case.

I am in the same boat but my husband's Aos was already filed in 2007 under my EB3 PD. What our lawyers are suggesting is interfile rather than file another 485 for him separately because this leads to too many files and delays. Also one cant have multiple 485s pending. So if you already have filed Aos send a letter for interfiling now. I am sure the lawyers know how to handle this.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

From your analysis, the only item that is falling out of place is EB3I acceptance date of July 2005. Seniors on this thread and also the gc tracker on this site, predict EB3I to move unto 2007 in 2016. Infact, it appears the chances of EB3I moving into 2007 is higher than EB2I moving into 2011 in the year 2016. Shouldn't EB3I acceptance date be prospectively set to somewhere in 2008?

Totally agree with you on that one. We would definitely need some transparency on the new methodology.

[jimmar]

Thanks a lot Q, imdeng and anuprab.