Yes, 2020 was a complete wash-off including immigration! More reasons to look forward to 2021.Originally Posted by monsieur
Yes, 2020 was a complete wash-off including immigration! More reasons to look forward to 2021.
Watch out for April bulletin. That would be the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and EB1 India would be current or close to current in the next 3 months. EB2 and Eb3 India would have to move further.February bulletin is one to watch out forInauguration is Jan 20 which is Wed. Maybe they will open the FAD floodgates that Fri as a welcome present.
As long as there is cut off date, some body would always miss the cutoff. This month it is him, next month it is going to somebody else.
There have been reports that DT admin (S.Miller) is working overtime to issue new regulations before they leave office on 20Jan. Among those are H1B, H4, etc., type regulations. I am even surprised that they moved the EB2 days by 9 days. DT admin will try to burn everything before they leave. So we should not expect anything before Feb VB. Hopefully it will be issued after Jan 20th and not before Jan20th. I really thought that the DOS career officials will move it. Seeing how DT is firing anyone and everyone, I think DOS/CO will try to stay under the radar and invisible till Jan20th.
LPR Since 07MAY2021
Did your friend’s friend’s friend’s friend said this?
If we think Miller is working overtime to stop the visa movement to prevent some exceptionally skilled and regular skilled people who are here in the country even before he hit puberty, then I think we should be writing conspiracy theory novels :-)
I think you guys missed two articles that came out quoting Jessica Vaughan. I found the CNN one. I think there was one in Hill also. They said that the admin is calling conservatives asking them what can they do before leaving office. Mind you that DT fired Christopher Krebs for going against him. I think it is reasonable that DOS is trying to stay low. There is no check-in with CO articles recently. No word of what happened to the 25K GCs that were announced in June 2020.
LPR Since 07MAY2021
I don't know what USCIS is thinking. The EB-2 India FAD should be at May 1, 2010 or close to it by now. The more time it takes to reach May 1,2010 the more visas will be wasted in FY 21. Even the new applications should have receded by now so much less workload. What else is stopping them to approve the cases that don't have interview mandate?
No CNN and The Hill articles did.Did your friend’s friend’s friend’s friend said this?
LPR Since 07MAY2021
Interference. There is no other way of explaining this at all. We have spent enough time here to see what's the math and what's happening.
LPR Since 07MAY2021
I called USCIS ph no, didnot ise chat, the no i called 800-375-5283
Mentioned 485 status check, it asks for reciept number, told ‘i dont have one but i have A#” .. after couple of repeats connected to live agent
By the way when did your application reach USCIS
Mine was in Dallas texas service center..
Interference only in EB-2 and EB-3 categories? In the last 3 months EB-1 India moved 10 months. I find it hard to believe. Most, if not all, of these EB-2 and EB-3 backloggers are already in the country and employed (Well paid too). Kicking the can down the road for only two categories don't make much sense to me.
25 K was allocated to Eb1 India. In 2018 we had about 34,000 Primaries waiting for approval till March 2018
Since this is a predications thread - here's a shot at trying to determine why EB2 is not moving as much...
Eb2 today has Eb2 + Eb3 > Eb2 as part of the queue. People with PDs < Apr 2010 have had a lot of time to move to EB2. The pending inventory simply does not reflect this. For someone in that group, who originally filed in Eb3 and ported to EB2, they have a choice to make. Either wait in the EB2 queue or go back to EB3. However from what I know going back to EB3 means they need to file a new petition. Which will take time. So for those who are prior to Apr 2010, they may not be keen on starting a downgrade at this time.
This would imply that EB2 has all those applications that need to be processed.
Granted there are EB2 users who ported to EB3 back in 2018 - 2019. But those were not much. Most who did that were the ones who missed the 2012 window to file.
I am not an expert in calculations but a quick back of the book calculation with perms split at 1:2:3 ratio, 70% EB3 > EB2 porting, 2.5 dependents per application and 0% EB2 > EB3 porting tells me there are about 23k applications in the EB2 queue till it hits Apr 2010.
Considering EB2 gets 5.9k before any spillover calculations which in theory should be available Oct 1st, even my calculations are convervative.
Long story short - I think the Eb2 > Eb3 factor may only play out for PDs after Apr 2010. EB2 will continue to lag till it clears this hurdle. This also means, anyone with PD > May 2010 should look into the EB3 downgrade
another slightly strange thing is the slowing pace of movement for EB2-1 and EB3-1 over the last 3 bulletins. EB3 movement was 106 days in Oct, 44 days in Nov, and 14 days in Dec. EB2 moved 55 days in Oct, 21 days in Nov, and 9 days in Dec. Similar slow down can be seen in movement of EB2-China and Eb3-china also.
They have been approving cases at a decently fast clip based on trackitt data. So a slow down in FAD movement does not look to be processing capacity related, but more related to visas numbers usage itself. Its difficult to make any sense when so little information is shared. Hopeing the new quarter will result in better news, and that pace would pick up after all applications have been received for the year.
why/how did he miss? his date is 03/15/10 which is now current for FAD, no?
i dont see dec visa bulletin any more on state website
It's everyone 'before' that FD.
Can this mean they can pass the H4 EAD revoke rule by jan 20?
I doubt if they will do that as they have not done that for the last ~4 years. About the date movement , I had mentioned a couple of weeks ago that we will need to wait for the Biden Administration to staff these departments and give them the green signal to start issuing the GCs. So it will be the Feb or probably the march bulletins where dates will move
The Current administration will do what it can to stop/slow the issuance hoping that there will be less time for the depts to issue the 265K GCs. This windfall of GCs is an unintended consequence of the consulate closures and they will do what ever they can to "poison the well" and see to it that issuance will get harder for the Biden Admin as they need to complete it by sept 2021.
Those in the govt depts will not move dates until they feel its safe as they don't want their heads to roll given that the current administration has less than 60 days left. They will just wait it out till the coast is clear or they fell the threat no longer exists.
So it will be the Feb or probably the march bulletins where dates will move as the departments will not feel the heat from the admin to stop/slow the issuance .
PLease clear the cache or go incognito . Firefox has issue with caching for the state website
Guys,
I am an avid follower of this forum and appreciate the contribution from all of you that helps me stay informed in my path to GC. I did some research on how many green cards are issued in the various employment preference categories by country of birth, and found a disturbing trend for EB2 visas issued for people whose county of birth is India. Between 2012 and 2015 EB2-I got 15k+ visas each year on an average, which went down to 3.3k on an average between 2016 and 2019, a drop of 80%!!!
Based on this, I think granting EB2 visas is not a priority for the current admin. Most stunning is the stat that only 2,604 GCs were issued in EB2-I category for the whole of 2019, which means they did not meet the 7% country quota of 2800+ visas for that year. This also leads me to believe that most of the 2021 spillover visas for Eb2/3 may just get wasted, unless the new admin takes an about turn and follows the policy of Obama admin (see data for 2012-2015). I welcome your thoughts/comments.
source: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../LPR/LPRcounty
==========================
Year EB1-I EB2-I EB3-I (Skilled)
----- ------ ------ ----------------
2012 8,152 17,878 2,571
2013 8,253 15,693 6,862
2014 11,314 21,024 3,102
2015 10,527 6,853 5,695
2016 9,289 3,823 3,986
2017 11,122 2,843 5,414
2018 9,676 3,894 4,891
2019 8,001 2,604 4,135
Attachment 1765
May be Dumb question. Help me understand
I am not good at numbers. I have seen these kind of year wise numbers earlier and with following this forum (Thanks to Gurus), came to know that those years got spill over which allocates extra for EB2I or EB3I and when no spill over only 7%.
So, with more or less 7% every year as per Law, what exactly happening to EB2I or EB3I?
Are these categories supposed to get more spillover every year which is not getting?
I think they get a lot more horizontal spillover each year than what’s been used. Again this is purely based on historical trend. It may well be that ROW has consumed a lot more of these visas over the last few years, but that too does not explain the huge consistent drop in EB2-I. EB1-I has been the recipient of 10k plus visas each year, which is expected given the demand from EB1C. But the spillovers from other categories are just not being allocated to EB2, either due to lack of resources or due to lack of will, or both. I may be totally off base in this analysis, so would like to hear from gurus.
Things may not be that bad. Slow movement so far may only mean horizontal spillover has not been applied yet. If that's the case, once it starts getting applied, the pace of movement should increase.
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