EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

With the amount of time it takes to even file 485, everyone from India and may be China gains the 5 years experience and become eligible for EB2. We should be considerate and the only place they do not belong is wait for more than a decade to just file for 485. The pace at which things are going, some may actually near retirement before they get greened and that is the sad part.

The filing date introduced in 2015 was supposed to advance or ease the filing for 485. It is now 5 years and filing date of Eb2 is yet to reach July 2011 which was set in the original September 2015 bulletin which was pulled back.

Without covid the dates for Eb3 would have not even reached 2010. With just 16,000 and 22,000 perm applications for 2009 and 2010 the dates should have zoomed past 2009 and well into 2010 long back. It did not because Eb3 guys within those days first jumped into Eb2 from 2012 and then from 2018 jumped back to Eb3 with a new downgrade.

My biggest concern is why CO is not advancing the Eb2 dates to account for 2800 visas for October itself? And apply the spill over if any later in the last quarter. This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

The filing date introduced in 2015 was supposed to advance or ease the filing for 485. It is now 5 years and filing date of Eb2 is yet to reach July 2011 which was set in the original September 2015 bulletin which was pulled back.

Without covid the dates for Eb3 would have not even reached 2010. With just 16,000 and 22,000 perm applications for 2009 and 2010 the dates should have zoomed past 2009 and well into 2010 long back. It did not because Eb3 guys within those days first jumped into Eb2 from 2012 and then from 2018 jumped back to Eb3 with a new downgrade.

My biggest concern is why CO is not advancing the Eb2 dates to account for 2800 visas for October itself? And apply the spill over if any later in the last quarter. This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current.

I would not be surprised if there were some political calculus behind not advancing dates. Remember the orange cheeto and his minions like Miller are still in power and CO may not want to disturb the water. I am actually really glad the idiot is continuing to dispute the elections with his flimsy excuses and digging himself into a deeper hole which will hopefully distract them enough for a couple of months. But as you see with the Military changes that they are rapidly undertaking, I won't be surprised once the results are certified, they will turn inward and start burning down everything inside.

[mrperfect]

The filing date introduced in 2015 was supposed to advance or ease the filing for 485. It is now 5 years and filing date of Eb2 is yet to reach July 2011 which was set in the original September 2015 bulletin which was pulled back.

Without covid the dates for Eb3 would have not even reached 2010. With just 16,000 and 22,000 perm applications for 2009 and 2010 the dates should have zoomed past 2009 and well into 2010 long back. It did not because Eb3 guys within those days first jumped into Eb2 from 2012 and then from 2018 jumped back to Eb3 with a new downgrade.

My biggest concern is why CO is not advancing the Eb2 dates to account for 2800 visas for October itself? And apply the spill over if any later in the last quarter. This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current.

"This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current." Good Point Aceman... I am aware of the yearly per country limits (~3k) is there a rule that they can only apply the limits per quarter? i understand the processing efficiency.. what harm will it make to move the FAD to the date (where they can utilize the yearly quota) on the first day of the FY start?

[skpanda]

The EB2-->EB3 is inevitable. It just like how EB3--> Upgrade happened a decade ago. I for one has always supported this. EB2/EB3 category does not matter for Indians. Skills are not vastly different barring few exceptions... its just a matter where one can get the green card sooner.

As YTEleven or somebody else predicted, after the flurry of upgrade/downgrades, EB2/EB3 should move hand in hand. Its a good thing.

[srimurthy]

[QUOTE=mrperfect;68260]"This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current." Good Point Aceman... QUOTE]
I agree that for all backlogged countries they should allocate the complete 2800 in the first month or first quarter for efficiency and then either allocate more or not based on spillovers.

[mesan123]

Hi, finally got my reciepts... I have quick question my spouse has his priority date on 485 reciept rather than mine which is current. Is this the norm? Or should i get that corrected with USCIS..

[longwaitgigu]

Thanks Spec. I took another look through the numbers - and man is the situation dire!! More than 50K/year PERMs for India and like 13K for China - and no regulatory relief on the horizon. Covid will help matters for long suffering folks - but those that entered the queue in last couple years are looking at decades of wait.

Interesting that EB-2/3-China will likely be the big sufferer going forward as well. They will soon need spillover as their annual demand will significantly outpace annual quota - but the giant backlog of India will suck up any spillover.

Perms for ROW, Mexico and Philippines totalled 30,182
They been current also means less spillover to india by 60,000 if doubled the number counting dependents

[AceMan]

The EB2-->EB3 is inevitable. It just like how EB3--> Upgrade happened a decade ago. I for one has always supported this. EB2/EB3 category does not matter for Indians. Skills are not vastly different barring few exceptions... its just a matter where one can get the green card sooner.

As YTEleven or somebody else predicted, after the flurry of upgrade/downgrades, EB2/EB3 should move hand in hand. Its a good thing.

Eb3 -> Eb2 natural progression. Eb2 -> Eb3 a convenience progression. All it does is to hold up Eb3 dates with no obvious advantage to Eb2. We saw that in mid 2019 when Eb3 moved back to Jan 2009 and was stuck there for over a year and it got a move again only 4 months back, thanks to Covid.

USCIS allows/supports it, end of the story.

[skpanda]

Eb3 -> Eb2 natural progression. Eb2 -> Eb3 a convenience progression. All it does is to hold up Eb3 dates with no obvious advantage to Eb2. We saw that in mid 2019 when Eb3 moved back to Jan 2009 and was stuck there for over a year and it got a move again only 4 months back, thanks to Covid.

USCIS allows/supports it, end of the story.

"with no obvious advantage to Eb2"
Not sure why you feel so.

People who are in EB2 2010/2011 will get green card faster in EB3 than EB2.
All EB2 people after 2011 who downgrade will get EAD/AP. (This is an advantage to most people).

Ofcourse it is disadvantageous to EB3 friends in 2010/2011. Think of it this way, Many people jumped the ship from EB3 to EB2 and as a result EB3 moved faster. Now its just a catch up and balance out. Worst case these friends in EB3 would have been delayed in any way if EB3 to EB2 upgrade did not happen.

In the end basically everybody is doing whatever they can to get out of this backlog. Nothing wrong!

[waitin4gc]

I think upgrade/downgrade doesn't matter as long a they don't use Ead. once applicant start using Ead then you can't switch the category.

For folks who applied 485 in EB2 and used their EAD, can they not interfile in EB3 at a later stage if their PD becomes current in EB3? Assuming that a new I-140 gets approved in EB3.

[inspired_p]

Hi, finally got my reciepts... I have quick question my spouse has his priority date on 485 reciept rather than mine which is current. Is this the norm? Or should i get that corrected with USCIS..

Where on the I-797C do we see the priority date? I do not see any on my receipt notices.

[inspired_p]

EB3 -> EB2 were vilified and now EB2 ->EB3 are being vilified.

The PERM is what determines what qualifications are required for the person to be eligible foe the job. Once that is confirmed,
As long as PERM and job match up to qualify for EB2 , what category the I-140 is filed in is just administrative process.
I see many who like to create buckets to put people in , EB3 == low wage worker , EB2 == high skilled worker etc.

And people having duplicate applications EB2 and EB3 really should not change the wait times , as one person will only apply I-485 once and consume only 1 visa number anyways.
The only duplicate applications that skew USCIS predictions are the ones where both the spouses have I-140 approved and they end up using only one , while the other stays in the system as expected application

[mesan123]

Where on the I-797C do we see the priority date? I do not see any on my receipt notices.

i have it on my I-485 reciept notice

[vbollu]

For folks who applied 485 in EB2 and used their EAD, can they not interfile in EB3 at a later stage if their PD becomes current in EB3? Assuming that a new I-140 gets approved in EB3.

If you want to switch the category after using EAD that process is very complicated and will take a long time to complete the process.

[fishelusa]

Hi All, if anyone not received receipt notices, I came to know that uscis chat will give 485 receipt no. Is this true

[AceMan]

"with no obvious advantage to Eb2"
Not sure why you feel so.

People who are in EB2 2010/2011 will get green card faster in EB3 than EB2.
All EB2 people after 2011 who downgrade will get EAD/AP. (This is an advantage to most people).

Ofcourse it is disadvantageous to EB3 friends in 2010/2011. Think of it this way, Many people jumped the ship from EB3 to EB2 and as a result EB3 moved faster. Now its just a catch up and balance out. Worst case these friends in EB3 would have been delayed in any way if EB3 to EB2 upgrade did not happen.

In the end basically everybody is doing whatever they can to get out of this backlog. Nothing wrong!

Eb3 -> Eb2 is natural progression, you grow up the ladder in your career. Now the new format is growing downwards. And when the dates move forward they will attempt Eb2 again.

It is called a zero sum game. Eb3 I moved to jan1st 2015 because people were getting into Eb2. It was clear from the 150 year joke by cato where it had only under 55000 applicants in Eb3 and 216,000 in Eb2.

Even then in 2018,2019 and 2020 the exceptionally skilled were applying in Eb2.

[kash80]

Hi All, if anyone not received receipt notices, I came to know that uscis chat will give 485 receipt no. Is this true

I did try this way with my A#, but didn't get my receipt numbers. They asked me to wait at least 30 calendar days. My application was delivered on 10/23 to the TX location.

[inspired_p]

It is called a zero sum game.

There are many approvals just on this forum which suggests that at a micro level it is not a zero sum game. EB2-I -> EB3-I has given 2 years more on EAD for many people and people have received GCs in last 2 months when their PDs are current in EB3 but not in EB2 ( at least 6-13 months early).

Maybe on the macro level , it will be zero sum game with EB2 and EB3 fluctuating back and forth. There might be a correction again in next 2 years when number of EB3 and EB2 applications equal , but EB2 will not jump ahead of EB3 anymore as most people who have EB3 also have EB2 now and they can choose.

Anyways, my point it is I have direct examples where companies have applied I-140 in EB3 in the 2000's when everything was eligible for EB2.
Also, here is a case in point, I know someone is eligible for EB1-I now with EB3-I PD in mid 2009. Why would one blame anyone in this situation if the employer applies I-140 in EB3 or EB2 and gets the GC instead of going through the extra hassles of EB1-A burden of proof.
Or do you expect the person to stick with EB1-A application

[vsivarama]

Eb3 -> Eb2 is natural progression, you grow up the ladder in your career. Now the new format is growing downwards. And when the dates move forward they will attempt Eb2 again.

I do not see anything wrong in this. The conception that EB1>EB2>EB3 is just in theory. As a practical matter it was never accurate. If it were then the folks in EB2 would be greened before EB3 in every instance. The 7% country cap itself is proof that it was never meant to be a skills based immigration system but instead a diversity first approach. Skills are an afterthought once the diversity requirements are met. So I do not see an argument where upgrading from EB3 to EB2 and then falling back to EB3 is not in line with the spirit of the law. If anything it proves the sham of a high skilled immigration system it always was. Me personally, I decided to wait 1 year because my company had put in the initial effort to apply a EB3 perm for me. Back then wait time for EB2 was around 3-4 yrs or so and EB3 was close to 10 yrs. I do know now that it was the dumbest mistake I ever made in my life.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I do not see anything wrong in this. The conception that EB1>EB2>EB3 is just in theory. As a practical matter it was never accurate. If it were then the folks in EB2 would be greened before EB3 in every instance. The 7% country cap itself is proof that it was never meant to be a skills based immigration system but instead a diversity first approach. Skills are an afterthought once the diversity requirements are met. So I do not see an argument where upgrading from EB3 to EB2 and then falling back to EB3 is not in line with the spirit of the law. If anything it proves the sham of a high skilled immigration system it always was. Me personally, I decided to wait 1 year because my company had put in the initial effort to apply a EB3 perm for me. Back then wait time for EB2 was around 3-4 yrs or so and EB3 was close to 10 yrs. I do know now that it was the dumbest mistake I ever made in my life.

You were operating under the same assumptions as any rational and educated person would, i.e. EB2 is higher priority than EB3 and will get greened faster. So don't blame yourself for this, it's the system that is messed up. The most ridiculous aspect of it other than being diversity focused and not based on skills is counting dependents. A lot more children likely get employment based green cards every year compared to people who are primarily qualified for that. How dumb is that in the 21st century?

[raradhya]

Need advise on how to address this correction of the i-485 application for derivative applicant.
the date of birth for on the parent is entered wrong (entered marriage date instead of birth date). we recently (last month) filed the application and waiting for receipt notice. wondering how to address this correction.

[gcconnect]

Basically, American immigration system is based on family reunification and the needs of employers. Needs of the employers cannot be fulfilled without employee family which is again Children.
On a broader view employment category is developed based on the employer’s requirements in different skills that are valuable to the U.S. economy. Immigration system view is different than us who are in different category lines. They don't care who got in which employment category, as the main objective is the diversity and economy.
I know so many people who does not even know GC process got GC long back. I was also under the same impression that it will come one day. Decade waiting makes me slowly getting into the things around GC and understanding people jumping lines to see the Heaven. people catch anything when drowning, that may be others leg. Cant blame it.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Need advise on how to address this correction of the i-485 application for derivative applicant.
the date of birth for on the parent is entered wrong (entered marriage date instead of birth date). we recently (last month) filed the application and waiting for receipt notice. wondering how to address this correction.

https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclope...orrect-it.html

[vsivarama]

On a broader view employment category is developed based on the employer’s requirements in different skills that are valuable to the U.S. economy. Immigration system view is different than us who are in different category lines. They don't care who got in which employment category, as the main objective is the diversity and economy.

Here is the biggest problem with this. EB is only 14-15% of American immigration system. The Rest is based on diversity anyway, so not sure what diversity is going to achieve in employment based category, and why family members should count as recipients of EB numbers. I agree that US has the right to decide which immigrants should be prioritized based on occupations or needs of the country (doctors, nurses, scientists). But then to discriminate within the occupations based on country of birth is like trying to plant your hands firmly on the scales and force a winner. You never get innovation (the best and the brightest) by forcing an outcome devoid of logic.

[AceMan]

Basically, American immigration system is based on family reunification and the needs of employers. Needs of the employers cannot be fulfilled without employee family which is again Children.
On a broader view employment category is developed based on the employer’s requirements in different skills that are valuable to the U.S. economy. Immigration system view is different than us who are in different category lines. They don't care who got in which employment category, as the main objective is the diversity and economy.
I know so many people who does not even know GC process got GC long back. I was also under the same impression that it will come one day. Decade waiting makes me slowly getting into the things around GC and understanding people jumping lines to see the Heaven. people catch anything when drowning, that may be others leg. Cant blame it.

You have hit the nail on the head. American immigration was always on family and the diversity it brings into this country. EB based immigration was created only in 90’s and this was heavily influenced by family based. The 2001 incidents ripped out any possible increase in the number of immigrants which has already been set.

In the big scheme of things these line jumpings does not even matter as they are legit. People who are waiting in this nonsense queue will catch anything to pick them from drowning in the quick sand.