EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[idliman]

Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

I concur with this great post. Please do whatever it takes to make sure that your I485 is filed before end of Oct. You never know if the DF will remain open in Nov / Dec or not.

Just look at the case of people with PDs starting May 1, 2010. They had to wait multiple years to apply for I485 and AC21 benefits. AC21 job portability is a great benefit. Essentially 180 days from Receipt date on I485 you become a "free agent". Sadly when the movement stops, this is going to create such a difference to the people that have filed AOS vs those who could not.

[vedu]

Also, we shouldn't feel guilty about screwing FB for our own benefit. With legislation like S.386, we were essentially asking for the same thing, "to screw ROW for our own benefit". FB can wait for a couple of years. My dear father recently passed in India due to COVID, and I couldn't even attend his funeral due to this mess. Hopefully, I can attend his one year passing event (Shraddha) if this mess clears up for me in a year. So, everybody is in pain, and the pain is real.

[redsox2009]

Thanks Redsox for your analysis. It seems to me that a lot depends on FB categories opening up, and embassies opening up.
Has this process started already ? The following page indicates that international offices are almost all closed: https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/uscis-office-closings

You are pointing to USCIS field offices and which is good sign for people who are applying AOS within US.

[longwaitgigu]

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.

Thankyou for excellent analysis and do agree submission of I 485 - faster the better. Our attorney has still not send list of docs and nothing is in our control.
As per our situation- our company and attorney is going to take 2 months ( it's one of the biggest companies- dont know why they will take 2 months.) There is no pressure we can create apart from request. Attorney says they have to check labor which is applied 11 years ago and make sure job is still there( LOL my spouse works since 2006 and just filed again for h1b extension)
My spouse PD is oct 2010-eb3. Do you think we have chances to be current by FAD by end of this FY? As I am also concerned with DF been closed and company taking forever. We are still going to be applying AP and Ead just in case( I will like suggestions based on our PD). Do you think we should submit medicals with i485?
I am still optimistically thinking of DF to open till December 2020.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Also, we shouldn't feel guilty about screwing FB for our own benefit. With legislation like S.386, we were essentially asking for the same thing, "to screw ROW for our own benefit". FB can wait for a couple of years. My dear father recently passed in India due to COVID, and I couldn't even attend his funeral due to this mess. Hopefully, I can attend his one year passing event (Shraddha) if this mess clears up for me in a year. So, everybody is in pain, and the pain is real.

So sorry to hear about your father, bud. This year has been devastating to say the least. My Dad is also pretty close to departing, so won't be surprised if I go through the same. Sucks...

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My attorney asked me to get the medicals done. If they come in before Oct 8/9, it will be sent, else we will send it later. Bottom line, she wants the application in before Oct 12.

[EB22010Dec]

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.

I am super worried reading this post, as I might not be able to file at this time due to job changes.
My PD is Dec2010 in EB2. Other Gurus, is this true, if I miss now, do I really need to wait for 10/15 years ?

[longwaitgigu]

I am super worried reading this post, as I might not be able to file at this time due to job changes.
My PD is Dec2010 in EB2. Other Gurus, is this true, if I miss now, do I really need to wait for 10/15 years ?

My spouse PD is oct 2010-eb3- i140 is approved too and still I am extremely worried - company lawyer and company is not hurrying up at all

[sjayanthi]

Without any doubt don't come back just for 485. File CP. Earn the foreign assignment credit with the employer and come back on a much bigger position as well as right to EB1C. Good luck.

Thank you so much for responding. I did not realize we can do a CP with DOF. I will double check and explore this possibility as a back pocket.

[vedu]

So sorry to hear about your father, bud. This year has been devastating to say the least. My Dad is also pretty close to departing, so won't be surprised if I go through the same. Sucks...

So sorry to hear about your father as well. Stay strong. Your priority date looks closer to mine. Hopefully, we will get our GCs this year, and then can visit our families and ask for forgiveness for not being there during the darkest time in their lives.

[alpha0]

I am super worried reading this post, as I might not be able to file at this time due to job changes.
My PD is Dec2010 in EB2. Other Gurus, is this true, if I miss now, do I really need to wait for 10/15 years ?

Not for your PD. I belive your PD (final action date) will be current in next 1 year or so, so even if USCIS stops accepting filing dates due to large inventory built up, you would not have to wait long to file based on final action date.

[EB22010Dec]

Not for your PD. I belive your PD (final action date) will be current in next 1 year or so, so even if USCIS stops accepting filing dates due to large inventory built up, you would not have to wait long to file based on final action date.

I was hoping the same thing and I was not sweating.
But @Redsox post sent chills down my spine.

Can other gurus please chime in.

[vbollu]

I agree that it is because of the Trump EO side-effects that we got this record spillover from FB to EB. It is great for people who are waiting for an EAD. Myself and my spouse had benefited from the AOS EAD since 2012, as do numerous folks till May 2010. Please note that the DF based EAD will not prevent age-out of kids. However, what I was saying was that this spillover is only in paper. If two years of Indian Backlog clears, then DT would have done more to the backlog than what #43 and #44 did for EB immigrants. It is my personal opinion that most of the spillover will be wasted using some excuse (I will be very happy if I am wrong and most including myself get their GCs).

You keep talking as if that only Sen Durbin killed S386. Yes, he played a big role in it. Ultimately it was killed by Rick Scott / Republicans with S. Miller standing in the shadows. I was saying for a long time that at the last-minute DT can call a southern Senator and put a hold. Sadly, that’s what happened. Before Durbin, it was Sen Grassley. It can easily be Sen Cotton. Someone either from R’s or D’s had always shown up to kill Fairness Bill.

So, if you want to support DT for the purpose of giving a lot of people EAD’s accidentally, I have no problems with it. It is the truth.

I know that many of you are optimistic about some kind of immigration reform. I have been waiting since 2009, however to my limited knowledge there is no chance of anything happening on the immigration front. Immigration is considered a losing case and there is less appetite to take it up in the first term of any new president. Everyone in the world other than Indians are benefiting from country cap. It will be impossible to get rid of it (without a CIR).

I don’t think you or I were wrong. It is just the optics. Supporting D’s or R’s does not mean anything. Historically R’s have supported legal immigration. However, this time R’s have aligned with white nationalists that hate Brown skinned folks. Peace.

Both are same doing dirty politics when it comes to legal immigration, none are less. Let's move on politics from now and we will concentrate first to get atleast EAD, I believe this is the last chance for EB3 and Eb-2 immigrations to get the Ead who have priority date of 2013 or less, if any one miss this golden chance they have to wait for almost a decade. I know people who got suffered almost a decade who filed on or after april 1 2010. don't waste this opportunity, best of luck for all immigrants who are going to file the I-485.

[redsox2009]

Also, we shouldn't feel guilty about screwing FB for our own benefit. With legislation like S.386, we were essentially asking for the same thing, "to screw ROW for our own benefit". FB can wait for a couple of years. My dear father recently passed in India due to COVID, and I couldn't even attend his funeral due to this mess. Hopefully, I can attend his one year passing event (Shraddha) if this mess clears up for me in a year. So, everybody is in pain, and the pain is real.

Sorry for your loss. But don't feel guilty about screwing FB for our own benefit.

Dharm Eva Hato Hanti, Dharmo Rakshati Rakshitah!
Tasma Dharmo Na Hantvyo, Ma No Dharmo Hato Vadhit!!

You are just following the law and you are not violating. No Guilt.

[donkeykong]

Hi,
We have a 2010 PD and 2011 PD in the family (Both EB2). 2010 PD is with previous employer and the current employer is submitting a PERM. So we are applying based on 2011 PD.
In the future if 2010 PD becomes current, can we switch to that one? (Assuming we have EAD from 2011 application)

Thank you,

[redsox2009]

I am super worried reading this post, as I might not be able to file at this time due to job changes.
My PD is Dec2010 in EB2. Other Gurus, is this true, if I miss now, do I really need to wait for 10/15 years ?

By end of the year or start of next year Oct 2021 you will get the chance to file again.

[EB22010Dec]

By end of the year or start of next year Oct 2021 you will get the chance to file again.

Can you please expand on this ... 90k people seems to be a lot of people, especially at 2500 a year.

[redsox2009]

I was hoping the same thing and I was not sweating.
But @Redsox post sent chills down my spine.

My aim is not to send Chills or make you worried, I wanted everyone to take advantage of the situation. Last Thursday I was unable to put my phone down and it kept ringing till night 9:00 PM and many people in my circle contacts me before they approach an attorney. I forgot about the Q blog or else I would have done some research over the weekend. Now many people in my circle are doing beg/borrow/pay option, requesting the company to pay or begging company they will pay out of their pocket. Please take advantage of the situation.

Personally, I want my calculations to be wrong and all Indians can take advantage of the situation for a longer period.

One more thing to remember USCIS/STATE DEPT wants inventory in case if more GC's will be available by end of the year or next year. Their intention to make their Jobs easier, so take advantage of this situation.

[longwaitgigu]

@ redsox2009
Do u see chance of DF to be open for eb3 2010 till end of December 2020.
Should I be extremely worried coz of my lawyers and company slow process will miss the boat- I am really looking for ur valuable inputs for PD of oct 2010 in eb3

[redsox2009]

Can you please expand on this ... 90k people seems to be a lot of people, especially at 2500 a year.

"Employment-based: All of the Final Action and Application Filing Dates have been advanced at a very rapid pace, in anticipation of the FY 2021 annual limit being approximately 261,500, an all-time high. The movement of these dates has been taken in consultation with USCIS Office of Policy and Strategy to accommodate processing plans for USCIS Offices during the coming fiscal year and to maximize number use within the FY 2021 annual limits. Pending demand, in the form of applications for adjustment of status, and documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants, is well below the estimated annual limit of 261,500"

You need to read and understand the above statement.

[redsox2009]

@ redsox2009
Do u see chance of DF to be open for eb3 2010 till end of December 2020.
Should I be extremely worried coz of my lawyers and company slow process will miss the boat- I am really looking for ur valuable inputs for PD of oct 2010 in eb3

I cannot guess now.

[redsox2009]

Hi,
We have a 2010 PD and 2011 PD in the family (Both EB2). 2010 PD is with previous employer and the current employer is submitting a PERM. So we are applying based on 2011 PD.
In the future if 2010 PD becomes current, can we switch to that one? (Assuming we have EAD from 2011 application)

Thank you,

Yes through interfiling.

[oraclept]

My date is eb2 June 2011 with my old employer ..new employer did not even start labor .. Do you think filling dates on eb2 move by 1 month next year? I am just cursing myself ..old employer is asking for transfer of h1 so they can downgrade eb2. To eb3 And file 1-140 and 485 concurrently.. I am really scared looking at your post ..

[sjayanthi]

To oraclept

My two cents [I honestly think even attorney cannot solve your dilemma]: Changing jobs at such a short notice can be too disruptive for you and your family. Best course is to negotiate with your old employer with a future start date (my be 6 months from now) or paying for full I 485 filing or some other option so that you can get your application in but still have flexibility to change jobs later. You can always cite the on going covid crisis. Worse they can kick off the H1B transfer with a future start date. It boils down how well you can negotiate with your old employer.

[donkeykong]

Yes through interfiling.

Thank you,