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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #7226
    Quote Originally Posted by Tandav View Post
    I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
    The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
    a) increase the fee
    b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
    c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
    d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
    e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
    f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

    The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..
    I am just responding to the forum members' posts from 1-2 months ago. I will respond to your post in 2-3 months, I promise!! By the way, you can also downgrade from EB2 to EB3 by applying Premium I-140 application which will be approved in 15 days. Your priority date is current in EB3 and you can get your GC without any further wait. Why wait when there is no hope?

  2. #7227

    EB2 EB3 Upgrade Downgrade

    Not sure if you guys are aware, Upgrades and Downgrades are not eligible for Premium, if you are filing I-140 with old PERM application.

    Please take legal advise with immigration attorney, if you want to know more.

  3. #7228
    Quote Originally Posted by richie.rich View Post
    Not sure if you guys are aware, Upgrades and Downgrades are not eligible for Premium, if you are filing I-140 with old PERM application.

    Please take legal advise with immigration attorney, if you want to know more.
    That's good to know. What is the processing time for regular I-140 application these days? I am myself considering that option if my PD becomes current under EB3 next month.

  4. #7229
    I am planning to downgrade. Just wish to know how long this trend for EB3 is going to continue and Do you see any chance of EB2 filling dates moving forward?

  5. #7230
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
    Posts
    323
    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    Vsivarama,

    Do you still have distrust about SO? OR are you getting ready to turn in your application?
    I will turn in my application all right. I am a pragmatist whose conclusions are driven by reasons and logic. It's same reason why I DO NOT for a second think, this admin has suddenly had an epiphany and wants to atone for it's past errant ways and hence granting this opportunity to us. They can always come up with creative ways to add more hurdles to make the rest of the process as cumbersome as possible. I have been on H1 all this while and I have seen how shifty the rules have been around the extension process in the last 4 years. I will be expecting the same here after the rest of the way if the status quo continues. But to answer you, Yes, I am happy that I was wrong.

  6. #7231
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
    Posts
    323
    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    That's good to know. What is the processing time for regular I-140 application these days? I am myself considering that option if my PD becomes current under EB3 next month.
    It's 5 to 7 months as per USCIS timelines.

  7. #7232
    Quote Originally Posted by Tandav View Post
    I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
    The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
    a) increase the fee
    b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
    c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
    d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
    e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
    f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

    The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..
    Why do you pay for EAD/AP renewal? It's free if you pay the increased I-485 fee after 2007. In fact USICS lose time on resources if they have to renew EAD/AP renewals every other year.

  8. #7233

    PERM Approvals

    Hi All - Has anyone applied for and were approved for a new PERM petition? I heard there are significant delays in getting PERM approvals ranging almost over 8 months. Any recent experience here in this group - both positive or negative?

  9. #7234
    Question for all the gurus:
    PD July 2009 EB2-India filed for I-485 in Feb 2012. We received RFE on Aug 2020 (I-485J, medicals, G-325A) that my lawyer just responded to as part of AC-21 response (I last changed job in Aug 2018). My wife (PD EB2-India NIW has PD Dec 2010) is current to file for I-485 in Oct.

    Is there an interview requirement for I-485 filed in 2012 but a subsequent I-485J filed now to respond to RFE? If so how long does the interview process typically take? We are trying to determine if my wife should file for her I-485 at the moment or not.

    Any advice/ help is appreciated.

  10. #7235
    I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

    Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

    My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

    Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

    If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

    For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

    Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

    Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

    Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

    If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


    If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

    Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


    More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.

  11. #7236
    If the admin comes back, you will see massive changes in H1 rules that will make it a very high bar. At that time, having a EAD with it's job portability and not needing to go through the H1 process and especially stamping will seem a lot better.

  12. #7237
    Quote Originally Posted by AC_1980 View Post
    Question for all the gurus:
    PD July 2009 EB2-India filed for I-485 in Feb 2012. We received RFE on Aug 2020 (I-485J, medicals, G-325A) that my lawyer just responded to as part of AC-21 response (I last changed job in Aug 2018). My wife (PD EB2-India NIW has PD Dec 2010) is current to file for I-485 in Oct.

    Is there an interview requirement for I-485 filed in 2012 but a subsequent I-485J filed now to respond to RFE? If so how long does the interview process typically take? We are trying to determine if my wife should file for her I-485 at the moment or not.

    Any advice/ help is appreciated.
    No interview requirement for I485 filed back in 2012. By the way Supplement J will suffice now a days, there is no AC 21 response as such though. If you and your spouse already have EAD/AP (from 2012), there is no need to file I485 again for your spouse. Most probably you both will be greened in the coming days.

  13. #7238
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Location
    Ohio, USA
    Posts
    12
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

    Aim of this post is to create some awareness...........................

    More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.
    Great analysis and advise. Thank you and appreciate your time in putting this together. I have a question, is "i485 suppliment J" a must to submit along with new "adjustment of status" petition? The company attorney is digging in to the papers of my perm and i140 filings from 8 years ago. I think it will take time to find them and translate to "i485 suppliment J" form. Thank you.

  14. #7239
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    I will turn in my application all right. I am a pragmatist whose conclusions are driven by reasons and logic. It's same reason why I DO NOT for a second think, this admin has suddenly had an epiphany and wants to atone for it's past errant ways and hence granting this opportunity to us. They can always come up with creative ways to add more hurdles to make the rest of the process as cumbersome as possible. I have been on H1 all this while and I have seen how shifty the rules have been around the extension process in the last 4 years. I will be expecting the same here after the rest of the way if the status quo continues. But to answer you, Yes, I am happy that I was wrong.
    It was not my intention to pick on anybody. But just wanted to point out that whatever this admin is doing/did ends up in helping people in backlog. As I previously said, in the absence of any legislation, "GOOD" is "BAD", and "BAD" is "GOOD" here. No matter how many hurdles they throw at us, they will never be able to deny H1B or GC to a well qualified applicant like you. There are enough checks and balances in the system. But thinking that a legislation will happen in near future and help people in backlog is a pipe dream.

    In all likelihood, we are done for the filing dates progression for this year. But if the ban on outside FB continues, there will more SO available next year, and filing dates can significantly advance in year 2022, almost to the point of being current, and can help a lot more deserving people like you.

  15. #7240
    Sensei
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    San Francisco
    Posts
    84
    Thanks Redsox for your analysis. It seems to me that a lot depends on FB categories opening up, and embassies opening up.
    Has this process started already ? The following page indicates that international offices are almost all closed: https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/uscis-office-closings

  16. #7241
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

    Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

    My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

    Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

    If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

    For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

    Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

    Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

    Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

    If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


    If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

    Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


    More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.
    This is such a great advice! In general, when it comes to any type of immigration application including RFEs, you should submit them ASAP, on the very first day you are eligible to file so. That is the only thing you can control, and you must not take chances.

    There will be lots of RFEs to respond this year. The faster you can do it, better it is for you and people waiting in line behind you. That is the only thing we can control to ensure as much utilization of SO as possible. So, Don't be Lazy and ACT FAST on those RFEs. Maybe in some cases, having your medicals ready is not a bad idea. It is very important for us to put a ton of work ready to process on the tables of those government employees who look at every opportunity to sit idle and not do their job efficiently.

  17. #7242
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

    Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

    My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

    Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

    If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

    For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

    Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

    Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

    Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

    If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


    If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

    Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


    More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.



    Thank you so much for the post, really helpful



    My attorney suggested to send the I485 without medicals, got a message something like this

    During this time of USCIS delays, most attorneys are not submitting 485 applications with medicals. Medicals have a short validity window and if they are not processed quickly enough they will be considered expired by USCIS and rejected.


    What will happen in this situation is when you receive your interview notice, you will be asked to bring the I-693 medical forms with you to the interview. Once you know the date of your interview, it is at that time that you would schedule your medical appointment.

    Is it better to submit I-485 without medicals so the application can be submitted earlier, in my case PD is Aug 2020 EB2?

  18. #7243
    If new I-140 is being filled then you don't need or else it is advised to submit now.

  19. #7244
    I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

    If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.

  20. #7245
    Quote Originally Posted by shriny View Post
    Thank you so much for the post, really helpful



    My attorney suggested to send the I485 without medicals, got a message something like this

    During this time of USCIS delays, most attorneys are not submitting 485 applications with medicals. Medicals have a short validity window and if they are not processed quickly enough they will be considered expired by USCIS and rejected.


    What will happen in this situation is when you receive your interview notice, you will be asked to bring the I-693 medical forms with you to the interview. Once you know the date of your interview, it is at that time that you would schedule your medical appointment.

    Is it better to submit I-485 without medicals so the application can be submitted earlier, in my case PD is Aug 2020 EB2?


    I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

    If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.

  21. #7246
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

    If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.
    Excellent, thank you!

  22. #7247
    Gurus,
    I have a question regarding EVL ( now called SUPPJ). I filed I485 in 2012 when I was still with petitioning employer .
    I got my last RFE in 2016 , ( was with employer B ) at that time there was no SUPPJ , so I sent an EVL from my new employer (B) in response to the "same or similar occupation" RFE.

    I have changed jobs twice since then but did not voluntarily submit SUPPJ. If I now go back to my original employer (A) who filed my I140 , do I need to port it back ? Would I still need a SUPPJ ?

  23. #7248
    Sensei
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    San Francisco
    Posts
    84
    I applied for I485 last year, it was denied (long story).
    Can someone confirm if I can somehow use the same medicals for my next I485 filing later this year ? The medical should still be valid, right ?

  24. #7249
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

    If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.
    I agree. My PD is Jan 2011 (EB2) and I'm holding off on medicals at least as yet. But remember many corporate attorneys are backed up already. I agree that you don't want to have the ball in your court as much as possible. So providing all documents ASAP can't hurt as such.

  25. #7250
    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker123 View Post
    I applied for I485 last year, it was denied (long story).
    Can someone confirm if I can somehow use the same medicals for my next I485 filing later this year ? The medical should still be valid, right ?
    Probably not. AFAIK, You need to submit within 60 days of the doctor signing . Would be good idea to redo fresh medicals.

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