EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rocketfast]

You are way too conservative here. I think EB2I and EB3I will converge somewhere around late 2011 to early 2012. I think you are overestimating the ROW demand in EB2 and EB3 and I also think some vertical SO from EB1 is still a reality. I envision 35-40K visas per category for India (if wastage is not substantial).

Irrational exuberance Another reason I am saying that there is 25K visa availability for EB2-I is by seeing that the FAD has moved by 2 months for Oct 2020 to September 1. If you see the last I-485 inventory, it shows 2000 demand for those 2 months (july, august). And you multiply it by 12 future months, you get ~25K.

But then again, one can also argue that only half of June 2009 is cleared so far (trackitt google doc for July bulletin). So, that leaves 2700 demand for oct 2020. you multiply it by 12 months, you get 32,400.

[EB2June2010]

Hello everyone, I have been a longtime reader and posting for the first time.

I am looking at I-485 inventory report from Jan 2018, specifically for the EB2-I numbers. Is there a later one (could not easily find it)? Is it fair to assume that all cases up to June 2009 would be cleared since those dates were current for the last few months? If so, can we consider that there are ~4500 I-485 adjudicated applications already with USCIS that can consume a visa number as those dates become current, starting Oct 2020. Also, do these I-485 numbers include dependents or do we need to multiple by 2.2 (or whatever multiple) to get the potential visa demand?

I am just trying to go over the numbers to see what the known (excluding PWMBs) demand is. If the demand is just ~4500 or (4500 * 2.2 = ~10000), then one can use that as the basis and make assumptions about PWMB numbers and see when dates beyond April 2010 may become current in the next year.

Can someone validate my numbers, assumptions, and understanding?

[EB2IndSep09]

Assuming all/most spillover (FB 2019-20 numbers) going to India and based on available data (PERM, I-140, pending applications etc.), any educated guess on where could EB2I end up by Sep2021? Is it even possible to estimate at this point?
Thank you

I think your question is related to FA dates..
After revising the procedures for determining visa availability for applicants waiting to file, start of every fiscal year DOS estimates or at least supposed to estimate where the FA dates could end up based on the available number of visa for that fiscal year and moves the DFF to that date. Being said that, are the dates going to move to May 2011 and Jan 2015? depends on many factors like how many USCIS is going to process, how many people are having their status ready to file AOS etc.

[trackitgc]

With the reduced load from family visa's I do believe USCIS should be able to process a lot of the surge applications sooner than expected. What do you guys think ?

[gs1968]

With the reduced load from family visa's I do believe USCIS should be able to process a lot of the surge applications sooner than expected. What do you guys think ?

It is possible and as I mentioned in a previous post everything depends on the election outcome. If the democrats win and we have a President Biden the travel ban will be lifted. One can expect aggressive movement of Family based filing dates to make up for the time lost this year. The first step of the application process for both IR category and FB is the I-130 which is the responsibility of the USCIS.After that the NVC and DoS take over. We should also not forget that due to the continuing visa ban till December 31 2020 there will be roughly an extra 60000 FB visas which will be wasted and they will move dates hard to accomodate. To process 260K EB visas the USCIS should increase its processing capacity by 80 % for the EB category alone. If one is backlogged the dream situation would be a Trump win with the travel ban extended and FB visas continue to flow into EB

[idliman]

If one is backlogged the dream situation would be a Trump win with the travel ban extended and FB visas continue to flow into EB

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

[gs1968]

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

I apologize if I came across as imposing any political views. Your angle of reasoning also sounds logical. I think USCIS did a very smart move by aligning with DoS and having the same dates.This eliminated the risk of blowback and also any threat of litigation. I also agree that visa issuance will be slow walked in the first 3 months of the upcoming FY21 as the Trump administration will still be calling the shots.

Your last statement "Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized." sums it up perfectly. USCIS needs to show extreme good intent and determination for these kind of numbers to be processed and utilized
Again I apologize for my lack of clarity in the last post

[idliman]

I apologize if I came across as imposing any political views. Your angle of reasoning also sounds logical. I think USCIS did a very smart move by aligning with DoS and having the same dates.This eliminated the risk of blowback and also any threat of litigation. I also agree that visa issuance will be slow walked in the first 3 months of the upcoming FY21 as the Trump administration will still be calling the shots.

Your last statement "Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized." sums it up perfectly. USCIS needs to show extreme good intent and determination for these kind of numbers to be processed and utilized
Again I apologize for my lack of clarity in the last post

We all wish for the same thing. We want our PDs to move and people not to suffer because of backlog. This forum and I had immensely benefited from your analyses and insights. Even though our paths and thoughts are different (karma-marga vs jnan-marga vs bhakti-marga), they all lead to final emancipation (moksha).

Even though I wished JB to win (for the reasons mentioned above), I am not sure how things will turn out if he wins all three (House, Senate and Presidency). Maybe another DT term is not a bad thing (if democrats win House and Senate). Checks and balances on both sides.

[vbollu]

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

I don't agree with this analysis, democrats are much worse than stephen miller or any other racist in terms of legal immigration. we have seen this issue in I-140 ead, 2015 visa bulletin fiasco, senator durbin flip flops on s386. If democrat party president is in place of trump shoe could he halted family immigration in first place? trump took bold decision and it got helped at least EB Indian immigrants, other wise we could have got struck in another 20 years to get at least EAD. in my opinion all Indian immigrants who got benefited from this bulletin must say thanks to the current adminstration and in process if we loose few more GC's then still okay when large section of people getting benifit from it in first place.

[qesehmk]

If the democrats win and we have a President Biden the travel ban will be lifted. One can expect aggressive movement of Family based filing dates to make up for the time lost this year.

gs - you are too smart to not know that the reason of FB under utilization is consulate closures due to COVID. Nothing to do with travel ban. But I do agree that if Trump wins he will continue to keep the consulates closed (the reason is two fold - 1. it keeps the FB immigration down. 2. it keeps the DOS business down which the anti-globalist crowd hates).

It's funny how trump think COVID is hoax and yet for exactly same reason he has kept consulates closed.

[gs1968]

gs - you are too smart to not know that the reason of FB under utilization is consulate closures due to COVID. Nothing to do with travel ban. But I do agree that if Trump wins he will continue to keep the consulates closed (the reason is two fold - 1. it keeps the FB immigration down. 2. it keeps the DOS business down which the anti-globalist crowd hates).

It's funny how trump think COVID is hoax and yet for exactly same reason he has kept consulates closed.

You are right Q-my mistake The two things happened so close to each other that it was hard for me to separate one from the other. I think the consulates are slowly opening up although for limited emergency services only. As vbollu mentioned the ability to downgrade and file to EB3 category and get an EAD can be a game changer. I read on another forum recently about someone that is still on EAD/AP for 8 years now and how he has furthered his life significantly. I hope many employers allow and support the downgrades because they know about the portability option for the employee once approved. The icing on the cake would be if the USCIS started honoring the Filing dates to lock in the child age out protection instead of the FAD. This continues to be the major problem for families who are here on H-1B/H4 with children born abroad.

[newyorker123]

Can somebody roughly give an idea of possible FAD/Filing date trends for EB2/EB3 in coming 1-2years ?

Specifically interested about FAD. Any hope in sight for 2011/2012 dates in next 1-2 years, or is it still going to languish in 2009-10 ?

For Filing date, I guess as per messages I see that EB3 might retrogress in the next 1-2 years, and EB2 might improve, until they are sort-of close by to each other.

[qesehmk]

You are right Q-my mistake The two things happened so close to each other that it was hard for me to separate one from the other. I think the consulates are slowly opening up although for limited emergency services only. As vbollu mentioned the ability to downgrade and file to EB3 category and get an EAD can be a game changer. I read on another forum recently about someone that is still on EAD/AP for 8 years now and how he has furthered his life significantly. I hope many employers allow and support the downgrades because they know about the portability option for the employee once approved. The icing on the cake would be if the USCIS started honoring the Filing dates to lock in the child age out protection instead of the FAD. This continues to be the major problem for families who are here on H-1B/H4 with children born abroad.

I knew that you knew!

Yes indeed, ability to file 485 would be quite life changing. The aging out is going to be a huge problem and I think whichever administration comes next, the country cap bill must be furthered with a singular focus on the needs of backlogged folks rather than mixing up Indian and American right wing politics.

[srimurthy]

I knew that you knew!

Yes indeed, ability to file 485 would be quite life changing. The aging out is going to be a huge problem and I think whichever administration comes next, the country cap bill must be furthered with a singular focus on the needs of backlogged folks rather than mixing up Indian and American right wing politics.

I agree Q, in all this situation one should not ignore the Country Cap bill. Until that gets approved, everything is a stop gap and arbitrary reliefs but the problem still persists.

[Zenzone]

Can somebody roughly give an idea of possible FAD/Filing date trends for EB2/EB3 in coming 1-2years ?

Specifically interested about FAD. Any hope in sight for 2011/2012 dates in next 1-2 years, or is it still going to languish in 2009-10 ?

For Filing date, I guess as per messages I see that EB3 might retrogress in the next 1-2 years, and EB2 might improve, until they are sort-of close by to each other.

My estimate is both EB2 and EB3 FAD would converge in mid to late 2011 by the end of this fiscal.

[sjayanthi]

Thank you all for sharing a lot of different insights, super valuable. I am in a much different situation. After waiting for about 10 years ( EB2 PD April 2011, have MS and MBA from USA ) we decided to move to Canada couple months ago [beginning of Aug, 2020] for an international assignment. Now based on Oct bulletin, my PD is "current" under DOF. The debate we are having is, when consulates open, should we try to come back to USA and file under EB2 or wait for 6 more months and try to aim for EB1 C. Any inputs from this community will definitely help me make an educated decision. Thanks in advance.

[qesehmk]

I agree Q, in all this situation one should not ignore the Country Cap bill. Until that gets approved, everything is a stop gap and arbitrary reliefs but the problem still persists.

Absolutely. And once country caps are dashed then Americans and the lawmakers will realize how significantly immigration levels are in mismatch with the levels of foreign labor. That mismatch is what causes exploitation of slave labor as well as American labor.

[qesehmk]

Thank you all for sharing a lot of different insights, super valuable. I am in a much different situation. After waiting for about 10 years ( EB2 PD April 2011, have MS and MBA from USA ) we decided to move to Canada couple months ago [beginning of Aug, 2020] for an international assignment. Now based on Oct bulletin, my PD is "current" under DOF. The debate we are having is, when consulates open, should we try to come back to USA and file under EB2 or wait for 6 more months and try to aim for EB1 C. Any inputs from this community will definitely help me make an educated decision. Thanks in advance.

Without any doubt don't come back just for 485. File CP. Earn the foreign assignment credit with the employer and come back on a much bigger position as well as right to EB1C. Good luck.

[Justmyself]

EB3I March 2011 here. Do you guys suggest doing medicals now or waiting for The interview/RFE?

[alpha0]

EB3I March 2011 here. Do you guys suggest doing medicals now or waiting for The interview/RFE?

You are very likely to get GC in next 2 yrs, so submit medicals now with 485. That way, if they decide to waive your interview, you dont have to face any RFE delay.

[idliman]

I don't agree with this analysis, democrats are much worse than stephen miller or any other racist in terms of legal immigration. we have seen this issue in I-140 ead, 2015 visa bulletin fiasco, senator durbin flip flops on s386. If democrat party president is in place of trump shoe could he halted family immigration in first place? trump took bold decision and it got helped at least EB Indian immigrants, other wise we could have got struck in another 20 years to get at least EAD. in my opinion all Indian immigrants who got benefited from this bulletin must say thanks to the current adminstration and in process if we loose few more GC's then still okay when large section of people getting benifit from it in first place.

I agree that it is because of the Trump EO side-effects that we got this record spillover from FB to EB. It is great for people who are waiting for an EAD. Myself and my spouse had benefited from the AOS EAD since 2012, as do numerous folks till May 2010. Please note that the DF based EAD will not prevent age-out of kids. However, what I was saying was that this spillover is only in paper. If two years of Indian Backlog clears, then DT would have done more to the backlog than what #43 and #44 did for EB immigrants. It is my personal opinion that most of the spillover will be wasted using some excuse (I will be very happy if I am wrong and most including myself get their GCs).

You keep talking as if that only Sen Durbin killed S386. Yes, he played a big role in it. Ultimately it was killed by Rick Scott / Republicans with S. Miller standing in the shadows. I was saying for a long time that at the last-minute DT can call a southern Senator and put a hold. Sadly, that’s what happened. Before Durbin, it was Sen Grassley. It can easily be Sen Cotton. Someone either from R’s or D’s had always shown up to kill Fairness Bill.

So, if you want to support DT for the purpose of giving a lot of people EAD’s accidentally, I have no problems with it. It is the truth.

I know that many of you are optimistic about some kind of immigration reform. I have been waiting since 2009, however to my limited knowledge there is no chance of anything happening on the immigration front. Immigration is considered a losing case and there is less appetite to take it up in the first term of any new president. Everyone in the world other than Indians are benefiting from country cap. It will be impossible to get rid of it (without a CIR).

I don’t think you or I were wrong. It is just the optics. Supporting D’s or R’s does not mean anything. Historically R’s have supported legal immigration. However, this time R’s have aligned with white nationalists that hate Brown skinned folks. Peace.

[vedu]

I agree that it is because of the Trump EO side-effects that we got this record spillover from FB to EB. It is great for people who are waiting for an EAD. Myself and my spouse had benefited from the AOS EAD since 2012, as do numerous folks till May 2010. Please note that the DF based EAD will not prevent age-out of kids. However, what I was saying was that this spillover is only in paper. If two years of Indian Backlog clears, then DT would have done more to the backlog than what #43 and #44 did for EB immigrants. It is my personal opinion that most of the spillover will be wasted using some excuse (I will be very happy if I am wrong and most including myself get their GCs).

You keep talking as if that only Sen Durbin killed S386. Yes, he played a big role in it. Ultimately it was killed by Rick Scott / Republicans with S. Miller standing in the shadows. I was saying for a long time that at the last-minute DT can call a southern Senator and put a hold. Sadly, that’s what happened. Before Durbin, it was Sen Grassley. It can easily be Sen Cotton. Someone either from R’s or D’s had always shown up to kill Fairness Bill.

So, if you want to support DT for the purpose of giving a lot of people EAD’s accidentally, I have no problems with it. It is the truth.

I know that many of you are optimistic about some kind of immigration reform. I have been waiting since 2009, however to my limited knowledge there is no chance of anything happening on the immigration front. Immigration is considered a losing case and there is less appetite to take it up in the first term of any new president. Everyone in the world other than Indians are benefiting from country cap. It will be impossible to get rid of it (without a CIR).

I don’t think you or I were wrong. It is just the optics. Supporting D’s or R’s does not mean anything. Historically R’s have supported legal immigration. However, this time R’s have aligned with white nationalists that hate Brown skinned folks. Peace.

Idliman,

So you basically don't trust the official words in October Visa Bulletin, "RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT" in coming months (?) You can downgrade from EB2 to EB3 by filing premium I140 application which will be approved in 15 days. Your priority date is current under EB3 and you can get GC without any further wait.

[vedu]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Vsivarama,

Do you still have distrust about SO? OR are you getting ready to turn in your application?

[vedu]

Just makes me so mad... what other evidence is needed? They can simply deny this and will not be held accountable if visas get wasted.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
.
@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

Edlow says no.

This time it doesn't look like that the DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin.

[Tandav]

I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
a) increase the fee
b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..