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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #7101
    Sensei
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    Jun 2020
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    United States
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    There's literally 15 working days left in the FY2020. No way they process excess of 100k visas in that time.
    Please read my post, I am talking from new FY

  2. #7102
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Please read my post, I am talking from new FY
    Yup my bad! There are people on trackitt who think it's going to happen but thankfully there are saner and more informed heads here .

  3. #7103
    Does anyone know what "Document was mailed to you" status means for I-485? We responded to RFE last month and the last status was RFE response received. I was hoping for Approved message and this is confusing.
    An ideas?

  4. #7104
    Mostly approval notice. Usually should say Case Approved. I believe its the same. Congratulations.

  5. #7105
    Quote Originally Posted by karukon View Post
    Mostly approval notice. Usually should say Case Approved. I believe its the same. Congratulations.
    Thanks but I dont think its approval . When we called uscis, the L1 officer told the case status was still in progress.
    Hopefully nothing to worry about. will wait and see.

  6. #7106
    Guys,

    Hope you all are well , safe and healthy away from this covid thing.

    I am one of those ‘old timers’ equally excited and eagerly waiting for the spillover in hopes to be greened soon. I was doing some leisure reading and this caught my eye. All along I was under the impression that I485 interview is waived ONLY for those candidates who applied for AOS/I485 before March6th, 2017 when the EO was released. But from the link below it says that anyone with I140 approved earlier than March6th, 2017 is exempt from an Interview. Is that a fair statement and true?

    If this is indeed correct then I ‘Hope’ most of us here waiting in a limbo will be greened soon.

    Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.

    https://www.fragomen.com/insights/al...nals-need-know

  7. #7107
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabhas View Post
    Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.
    Our website policy is to give credit to whoever owns the data whether users cut and paste data or simply mention it. You did the right thing by including a link.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  8. #7108
    Pandit
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Sunny SoCal
    Posts
    108
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabhas View Post
    Guys,

    Hope you all are well , safe and healthy away from this covid thing.

    I am one of those ‘old timers’ equally excited and eagerly waiting for the spillover in hopes to be greened soon. I was doing some leisure reading and this caught my eye. All along I was under the impression that I485 interview is waived ONLY for those candidates who applied for AOS/I485 before March6th, 2017 when the EO was released. But from the link below it says that anyone with I140 approved earlier than March6th, 2017 is exempt from an Interview. Is that a fair statement and true?

    If this is indeed correct then I ‘Hope’ most of us here waiting in a limbo will be greened soon.

    Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.

    https://www.fragomen.com/insights/al...nals-need-know
    Not true. My I-140 was approved in 2011 and I was called for in person interview after filing I-485 in 2018.

  9. #7109

    Guessing very little movement in OCT 2020 Bulletin

    CO might wait end of this month to see whether congress does something for FB spillover - This might make him cautious and cause little movement. If congress does nothing before September then he might move dates in November bulletin. Any thoughts???

  10. #7110
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabhas View Post
    Guys,

    Hope you all are well , safe and healthy away from this covid thing.

    I am one of those ‘old timers’ equally excited and eagerly waiting for the spillover in hopes to be greened soon. I was doing some leisure reading and this caught my eye. All along I was under the impression that I485 interview is waived ONLY for those candidates who applied for AOS/I485 before March6th, 2017 when the EO was released. But from the link below it says that anyone with I140 approved earlier than March6th, 2017 is exempt from an Interview. Is that a fair statement and true?

    If this is indeed correct then I ‘Hope’ most of us here waiting in a limbo will be greened soon.

    Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.

    https://www.fragomen.com/insights/al...nals-need-know
    I wish that was true. Digged a little more and found the update that was published in Dec 2017. I believe everyone was interpreting the rules in their own way those days.
    https://www.fragomen.com/insights/al...nals-need-know

  11. #7111
    Quote Originally Posted by maverick2010 View Post
    CO might wait end of this month to see whether congress does something for FB spillover - This might make him cautious and cause little movement. If congress does nothing before September then he might move dates in November bulletin. Any thoughts???
    As I mentioned earlier, all those are speculations so doesn't count in the equation as they are many variables. However hope he will be cautious to move dates only to the extent to avoid another 2012 fiasco.
    We should not be disappointed if the movement is not each one of us personally expect as the fiscal year is just going to start now and there are 11 more bulletins to go.

  12. #7112
    Quote Originally Posted by maverick2010 View Post
    CO might wait end of this month to see whether congress does something for FB spillover - This might make him cautious and cause little movement. If congress does nothing before September then he might move dates in November bulletin. Any thoughts???
    IMO, it is good for the bulletin to come as late as possible. If it comes early, the folks at CIS/UsTechWorkers may have enough time to get it reversed. In my view, ideal movement would be 4-6 months every bulletin from now to December. Hopefully, when it comes out, we don't make too much noise as that will attract the antis.

  13. #7113
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    IMO, it is good for the bulletin to come as late as possible. If it comes early, the folks at CIS/UsTechWorkers may have enough time to get it reversed. In my view, ideal movement would be 4-6 months every bulletin from now to December. Hopefully, when it comes out, we don't make too much noise as that will attract the antis.
    Not sure why would anyone reverse that too only for EB2 and EB3. If that is the case EB1 should have never moved years together within few months.

  14. #7114
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    Not sure why would anyone reverse that too only for EB2 and EB3. If that is the case EB1 should have never moved years together within few months.
    If you have been reading CIS articles, they separate EB1 from EB2 and EB3.

  15. #7115
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Location
    United States
    Posts
    54
    keeping fingers crossed. Staying put in current job

  16. #7116
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    I wish that was true. Digged a little more and found the update that was published in Dec 2017. I believe everyone was interpreting the rules in their own way those days.
    https://www.fragomen.com/insights/al...nals-need-know

    Thanks Jimmy and SP. So we should have applied for I485 on or before Mar 6th, 20176 to be exempt from I485 interview.

    V

  17. #7117
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Riverside CA
    Posts
    94
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabhas View Post
    Thanks Jimmy and SP. So we should have applied for I485 on or before Mar 6th, 20176 to be exempt from I485 interview.

    V
    Yes. I believe that's right. I had two 140s filed before 2017(2010 and 2012) but still was called for interview.

  18. #7118
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Our website policy is to give credit to whoever owns the data whether users cut and paste data or simply mention it. You did the right thing by including a link.
    Thanks Q!

  19. #7119
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabhas View Post
    Thanks Q!
    No worries This is for everybody ... if you share external information, then do credit the original person.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #7120
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    No worries This is for everybody ... if you share external information, then do credit the original person.
    Hi Q, this is an unrelated question. What's the deal with the "Check in with Charlie Oppenheim" ? Is that a monthly jig where he meets with members of the immigration lawyer community(AILA)? Who organizes this meeting? Can the public join in to listen or participate?

  21. #7121
    Pandit
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by android09 View Post
    Hi Q, this is an unrelated question. What's the deal with the "Check in with Charlie Oppenheim" ? Is that a monthly jig where he meets with members of the immigration lawyer community(AILA)? Who organizes this meeting? Can the public join in to listen or participate?
    I think the meeting with Charlie happens few days after the VB was released. AFAIK, public participation is not allowed. Only AILA and its members can be present in that meeting. Carl Shusterman of www.shusterman.com usually publishes the call details with Charlie every month. Hope this helps!

  22. #7122

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by android09 View Post
    Hi Q, this is an unrelated question. What's the deal with the "Check in with Charlie Oppenheim" ? Is that a monthly jig where he meets with members of the immigration lawyer community(AILA)? Who organizes this meeting? Can the public join in to listen or participate?
    Thanks to jimmys who answered your question well. My additional 2 cents - I think this is how CO can control the crowd, speak to business stakeholders, and more importantly provide some direction to backlogged folks without being held liable for anything he says.

    If some of you have questions that need answered, one of you can volunteer every month and collect and I can send it to his office and see if he might address those during his monthly AILA meetings or directly to us.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  23. #7123
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    Congratulations!!
    Got the cards today: Time line below, hope it helps and good luck to all.

    PD Current in JULY bulletin
    July 7th raised SR online
    July 15th Got reply there is no visa available
    July 15th : Called and raised SR
    July 21 : Got reply there is visa available and 485 will be processed
    Jul 27th : Got RFE sms
    Aug 8th : received RFE documents (485 J, Biometrics, medicals)
    Aug 24th : RFE received by uscis
    Aug 29th : 485 Approved online update
    Sep 3rd : Again 485 Approved online update
    Sep 8th : Approval notices received
    Sep 9 : Card mailed online update
    Sep 16th : Cards received

  24. #7124
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
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    Riverside CA
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    94
    Quote Originally Posted by karukon View Post
    Got the cards today: Time line below, hope it helps and good luck to all.

    PD Current in JULY bulletin
    July 7th raised SR online
    July 15th Got reply there is no visa available
    July 15th : Called and raised SR
    July 21 : Got reply there is visa available and 485 will be processed
    Jul 27th : Got RFE sms
    Aug 8th : received RFE documents (485 J, Biometrics, medicals)
    Aug 24th : RFE received by uscis
    Aug 29th : 485 Approved online update
    Sep 3rd : Again 485 Approved online update
    Sep 8th : Approval notices received
    Sep 9 : Card mailed online update
    Sep 16th : Cards received
    Congratulations Karukon. We celebrate your freedom !!! Please use it to give back as much as possible to society and needy.

  25. #7125
    Quote Originally Posted by karukon View Post
    Got the cards today: Time line below, hope it helps and good luck to all.

    PD Current in JULY bulletin
    July 7th raised SR online
    July 15th Got reply there is no visa available
    July 15th : Called and raised SR
    July 21 : Got reply there is visa available and 485 will be processed
    Jul 27th : Got RFE sms
    Aug 8th : received RFE documents (485 J, Biometrics, medicals)
    Aug 24th : RFE received by uscis
    Aug 29th : 485 Approved online update
    Sep 3rd : Again 485 Approved online update
    Sep 8th : Approval notices received
    Sep 9 : Card mailed online update
    Sep 16th : Cards received
    Freeeeedom!!
    Is there any specific reason other than grabbing USCIS attention you raised SR on July 7th when your priority date became current?

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