EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[idliman]

Yes, I understand the fear, but the very fact that the news network like breitbart has started crying foul means they got the inkling that DOS is shifting 100,000 visas to EB. It is happening.

DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

[vedu]

DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

Your assessment looks very reasonable to me and hope it comes true! It was so unfortunate that our lives were frozen for a decade while the rest of the world kept moving forward without any care for us. In many ways, our situation is like Ellis Red in "The Shawshank Redemption" who finally gets out of the jail after serving a lifetime, and finds his friend's letter that says, "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."

[longwaitgigu]

DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

Your predictions at first gives me nervousness as with the amount of spillover EB( spec in other post CP- for this year October to July- 92,797, so there is possibility of getting more than 120k spillover) is getting I expect DF to reach 2010 end for eb3 atleast (DF had reached April 2010 for eb3) and for eb2 ( DF had reached may 2010) so I expect that too reaching atleast july 2010.
But then thinking about it makes sense CO will be conservative and who knows how much politically is going on. It puts us to ground not expect gc soon.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Your predictions at first gives me nervousness as with the amount of spillover EB( spec in other post CP- for this year October to July- 92,797, so there is possibility of getting more than 120k spillover) is getting I expect DF to reach 2010 end for eb3 atleast (DF had reached April 2010 for eb3) and for eb2 ( DF had reached may 2010) so I expect that too reaching atleast july 2010.
But then thinking about it makes sense CO will be conservative and who knows how much politically is going on. It puts us to ground not expect gc soon.

It's probably going to be the 18th before they release the Oct bulletin.

What are the board predictions on VB dates for Dec and Jan depending on who wins in Nov?

[EB2IndSep09]

It's probably going to be the 18th before they release the Oct bulletin.

What are the board predictions on VB dates for Dec and Jan depending on who wins in Nov?

Oct and Nov are going to be crucial bulletins for any drastic movement of dates.
Irrespective of who wins the agencies are going to lookup for a direction from the then administration and so my take is we will see a regular movement nothing dramatically going to change as the administration has lot of other things to worry about and immigration comes to the bottom of the list after every election. Just refer to the bulletins every 4 years back..

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Oct and Nov are going to be crucial bulletins for any drastic movement of dates.
Irrespective of who wins the agencies are going to lookup for a direction from the then administration and so my take is we will see a regular movement nothing dramatically going to change as the administration has lot of other things to worry about and immigration comes to the bottom of the list after every election. Just refer to the bulletins every 4 years back..

The need of the hour for USCIS is pretty clear. They want funds, there has been a big void in FB applications which can be filled by EB applications - BY LAW. I hope they do the right thing going into the new FY2021 by moving the dates forward and processing the applications. But it's clear there are other forces at work here and it's going to be a fight.

[vsivarama]

The need of the hour for USCIS is pretty clear. They want funds, there has been a big void in FB applications which can be filled by EB applications - BY LAW. I hope they do the right thing going into the new FY2021 by moving the dates forward and processing the applications. But it's clear there are other forces at work here and it's going to be a fight.

That would be the conventional wisdom, but lately USCIS has been having it's cake and eating it too. All they need to do is drag their feet and go about business as usual. Complain they do not have the funds and hike the fees again. As long as there is no accountability from congress, they can repeat this playbook over and over again.

[NJMavarick]

DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

I pretty much agree with your assessment except that I do not expect the EB3I filing dates to reach July 2010. CO understands that with this comes down porting and will keep the dates within May 2010 before the big jump IMO. The SO number should be between 110-120K so ~260 EB visas. I do not have a link to substantiate my claim but that is based on pure logic given that 96K FB visas were consumed before everything shut down.

[shaks2020]

Regarding how the USCIS functions these days, I found this while browsing Quora, https://www.quora.com/The-USCIS-will...s-give-Trump-a
If you scroll down, there is an answer from a USCIS contractor called Mike Block. He seems to be one of the good guys. Perhaps we should upvote his answer on Quora and give him some encouragement

[longwaitgigu]

Question
My h1b extension has been filed and supposedly if my filing dates get current this month. Do I need to do h1b extension in premium and approved prior to file my i485?

[idliman]

Question
My h1b extension has been filed and supposedly if my filing dates get current this month. Do I need to do h1b extension in premium and approved prior to file my i485?

In your case, H1B is the underlying status to AOS. You don't need to do premium, as the both are separate and independent applications (unless the company is doing it for you or you need premium for some other reason). One is non-immigrant and other is immigrant. Many people maintain H1B in addition to I485 pending for the following two reasons:

1. Once you file I485, you have the backup status of I485 pending. If something happens to your H1B, you can fall back to the I485 pending status.
2. When you work on EAD/AP, the moment your EAD expires you need to stop working. However for H1B, once you apply you have the grace period, so you can keep working even if your H1B application is pending.

What is more awesome is that 180 days after I485 is pending, you become eligible for AC21 provisions (codified by law) that allows job portability.

When you have multiple status after filing AOS, your current status is based on the document you had used to enter USA. If you use EAD/AP, then your status becomes "District Authority / Parolee". If you use a valid H1B stamp to enter, then your status is H1B. A person who entered in "Parolee" status can revert to "H1B" and keep extending H1B. The fine-print is in an USCIS memo. Some people totally get rid of H1B and are comfortable to stay in EAD/AP (Parolee) status for many years. However, before the I485 gets approved they need to show a valid job offer in same or similar category subject to USCIS approval (I485 Supplement J). Once you apply I485, you will start understanding this.

It is widely accepted to keep a H1B status in addition to AOS pending status. This also provides additional revenue stream for the attorneys.

[EB2IndSep09]

Question
My h1b extension has been filed and supposedly if my filing dates get current this month. Do I need to do h1b extension in premium and approved prior to file my i485?

Agree with Idliman one should always have H1B as backup. Just to add cherry on top to idliman's reply. May be I should say chutney on top
You did not mention when you filed the extension for H1B. so hoping you did before USCIS reinstated premium processing. Even if it is after that... below is going to give some info for you to make an informed decision
Trackitt numbers are still promising for a H1B extension averaging around 45 days. BTW my spouse got it last month approved in 32 days in regular filing.
So even if your PD becomes current in Oct bulletin, you have to wait till October to file the AOS petition. You might get your H1 approved even before you file AOS or at least by the time USCIS starts processing your AOS petiton.
I am no Immg Lawyer but I feel it is not worth spending money on PP because your case is not breaking any immigration law.

[longwaitgigu]

Thankyou idli man and eb2indsep09 for your reply
Actually the query is for my spouse( just filed 8/31/20 and expiring h1b 9/30/20). As u mentioned ur spouse got approved in 32 days( which service center?) as mine h1b extension took 4 months in Vermont service center- approved in june 2020.
So I will definitely consider it and not waste my money. Wait for October bulletin and how things changes for us.

[EB2IndSep09]

It was at Nebraska Service Center.

[H1b2006]

anybody explain why there is no premium processing for perm?

[android09]

anybody explain why there is no premium processing for perm?

Because PERM is a department of labor function. The DOL doesn’t care if you are in a hurry. The USDOL is not funded by User fees and has its own line item in the federal budget.

[getsaby]

Morning

Given the most anticipate bulletin for EB2 about to be reveal, want to know if any of EB2 2009 folks recieved any RFE.
I did my third Medical back in 2018, USCIS received it on Aug 15 2018.

[longwaitgigu]

Why are the predictions on mygcvisa.com so pessimistic. Has anyone observed that. It gives a very bad feeling

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Why are the predictions on mygcvisa.com so pessimistic. Has anyone observed that. It gives a very bad feeling

There is no new data or information from CO available that should change anyone's predictions or expectations.

Obligatory: Wait until the next bulletin, it might give you some more insight.

[srinivas20]

Hello All,

Emp A is ready to file my i485 at this time as dates are current. Currently I am working for Emp B.

Now when Emp A is planning to file i485 application .. do they file I485 supplement J or do they just file i485 application. I am not sure i know the difference between i485 and i485 supplement J application as I am filing i485 for the very first time.

[H1b2006]

looks like there are 6500 i-140s approved in eb3 for 2010 and 24000 eb2 i-140 approvals, if dates move till Dec 2010, how long it takes for people to port eb2 to eb3. ideally 4000-5000 people will downgrade if thier employers co-operate. it will eventually become 18k EB2, 12K EB3 for i 140 approvals for 2010.
i have a freind who has may 2010 pd in eb2 and eb3 but moved back to india for good. can they transfer thier cases to Consular processing? how long it takes for CP conversion from india.

[longwaitgigu]

I have calculated based on pending i140 For 2009- 3327- eb2x1.0=3327 2211- eb3x1.1=2432.1 ( I have approximately done half as eb2 and eb3 is in mid 2009) For 2010- 15313-eb2 x1.0=15313 6682-eb3x1.1=7350.2 Total including dependent ( multiply factor is from uscis estimated dependent multiplier)= 28422.3 both eb2 and eb3 folks in india waiting till 2010 end So with country limit- 5000 each eb2 and eb3 gets. We still need excess of horizontal spillover

[Spectator]

I have calculated based on pending i140 For 2009- 3327- eb2x1.0=3327 2211- eb3x1.1=2432.1 ( I have approximately done half as eb2 and eb3 is in mid 2009) For 2010- 15313-eb2 x1.0=15313 6682-eb3x1.1=7350.2 Total including dependent ( multiply factor is from uscis estimated dependent multiplier)= 28422.3 both eb2 and eb3 folks in india waiting till 2010 end So with country limit- 5000 each eb2 and eb3 gets. We still need excess of horizontal spillover

You might want to look at your calculation again.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF

2nd = 1.0 dependent per primary = 2 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.0
3rd = 1.1 dependent per primary = 2.1 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.1

[altek001]

looks like there are 6500 i-140s approved in eb3 for 2010 and 24000 eb2 i-140 approvals, if dates move till Dec 2010, how long it takes for people to port eb2 to eb3. ideally 4000-5000 people will downgrade if thier employers co-operate. it will eventually become 18k EB2, 12K EB3 for i 140 approvals for 2010.
i have a freind who has may 2010 pd in eb2 and eb3 but moved back to india for good. can they transfer thier cases to Consular processing? how long it takes for CP conversion from india.

If it was mentioned in the I-140 filing that the applicant would proceed with Adjustment of status, then form I-824 (application for action on an approved petition) must be filed with USCIS in order for them to send the approved I-140 petition to NVC/DOS for consular processing. If it was mentioned 'Consular Processing' in I-140 filing, then no action is needed, as its already in file with NVC and they will contact both the applicant and petitioner when priority dates are about to get current.

[longwaitgigu]

You might want to look at your calculation again.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF

2nd = 1.0 dependent per primary = 2 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.0
3rd = 1.1 dependent per primary = 2.1 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.1

Agree with u spec
Even I doubted my calculation when it came to less number
I hope this should be corrected calculation
I140 for year 2009( approximately taken half as dates in mid 2009)
Eb2- 3327x2.0=6654
Eb3-2211x2.1=4643.1
I140 for year 2010
Eb2- 15313x2.0=30,626
Eb3-6682×2.1=14,032.2
Total number including dependents
Should be 55,955.3
Again we dont know how many duplication
So horizontal spillover massively can only help for FAD to reach 2010 end