EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[vedu]

No disrespect to what you mentioned earlier, I understand your intention. I meant a thank you would be enough for someone doing their job!
I agree with you on the annual quota and also another important thing "fair usage of spill over" that has not been done from past few years.

Until the broken system is fixed nothing is going to happen. Currently there are more forces, power and money lobbying against fixing it for their political and financial benefits.
Thanks for the feedback updated EB1 in the grid.

Thank you! I understand we are all frustrated after spending a decade of our lives in this waiting line. Let's just hope (or should I say PRAY?) that next year is ours, but at the same time be aware that new surprises can spring up any time and we maybe here five years from now discussing the same things!

[vedu]

Well, most likely it is more that a little wastege. Eb2 India moved from May 12 to July 8 in the year when consulates are closed and ROW is current. And those few thousands wastage (will need to wait till they announce final numbers) would have helped move Eb2 India a lot. Wastage is ok for ROW because it will dealy their GC just by few months, but for Eb2+3 India, this was once in a decade sort of windfall opportunity and agency screwed it up royally.

My logic for 25 k wastage is simple - they did not process 16k spillover (from previous year FB) plus about 10k or so which would have processed by consulates in regular year in 7-8 months. Why work more when you get same salary@?

I am prettry sure someone must be making plans right now on how to screw up 100k spillover next year.

The fact that the dates didn't move at all in September Visa bulletin points to more likelihood of full visa usage and little wastage if any. Otherwise, September Visa Bulletin would have been a Hail Mary! Sometime ago, spec mentioned the possibility that ROW may have used more than their fair share because 7% country quota refers to EB+FB combined. Since ROW used less FB due to consulates being closed as you pointed out, they could use more in EB which was open. We will find out soon. Also, we have to give them some slack. After all, it was once in a lifetime pandemic year!

[rocketfast]

The fact that the dates didn't move at all in September Visa bulletin points to more likelihood of full visa usage and little wastage if any. Otherwise, September Visa Bulletin would have been a Hail Mary! Sometime ago, spec mentioned the possibility that ROW may have used more than their fair share because 7% country quota refers to EB+FB combined. Since ROW used less FB due to consulates being closed as you pointed out, they could use more in EB which was open. We will find out soon. Also, we have to give them some slack. After all, it was once in a lifetime pandemic year!

There are 2 counter points.
1. In the US house of representatives, just 2 months ago, the USCIS chief said that they have allocated ~105,000 GCs and that it is 85% of their total.
2. Trackitt monthly data over the last few months.

Both point to under-allocation and that USCIS gave themselves a target of what they approved last year - which is approx 85% of 140,000 (the remaining being CP cases). So they likely will waste (156,000 - 125,000)

[vedu]

There are 2 counter points.
1. In the US house of representatives, just 2 months ago, the USCIS chief said that they have allocated ~105,000 GCs and that it is 85% of their total.
2. Trackitt monthly data over the last few months.

Both point to under-allocation and that USCIS gave themselves a target of what they approved last year - which is approx 85% of 140,000 (the remaining being CP cases). So they likely will waste (156,000 - 125,000)

I wouldn't give much credence to what USCIS chief said two months ago. We all know how DOS chief changes his statements from month to month. About Trackitt monthly data, yes, that is certainly something to look into in the absence of more concrete data.

At the end of the day, let's agree to disagree and wait for the truth to come out soon!

A fun fact - I found evidence that Sushant Singh Rajput had developed a Corona App. Several newspapers in India are reporting that SSR invented a Corona app in which infection could be detected by just breathing into a mobile. Here is one from TOI:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/77695080.cms

Now try countering that!

[H1b2006]

do you think USCIS guys will not honour the established rule ?

[usvisas]

House passes stopgap legislation to prevent over 13,000 furloughs at USCIS

https://cleaver.house.gov/media-cent...asses-house-of

[H1b2006]

great we are going to see full speed processing then

[idliman]

House passes stopgap legislation to prevent over 13,000 furloughs at USCIS

This bill increases the premium processing fees and the categories that are eligible. This does not have the $1.222B that USCIS asked for. Not sure if this will stop furlough.

• For immigration benefits already designated for premium processing, the premium fee is increased from $1,440 to $2,500, except that fees for H-2B and religious worker (R visa) petitions are set at $1,500.
• Premium processing services must be made available to the following additional immigration benefits, with fees and timeframes set through rulemaking:
• employment-based nonimmigrant petitions not already subject to premium processing;
• certain employment-based green card petitions (EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3) not already subject to premium processing;
• applications to change or extend nonimmigrant status;
• applications for employment authorization; and
• other immigration benefit requests as USCIS deems appropriate.
• USCIS may make biennial adjustments of premium fees to account for inflation.

Another important wording is

within 180 days, DHS shall provide Congress with a 5-year plan, including cost estimates & schedules an electronic filing plan for all applications and petitions for immigration benefits, acceptance of electronic payments.

While this is a good thing, this will backfire for backlogged EB2I / EB3I, if they are still pending AOS after 5 years. While I rejoiced when Obama admin introduced the DF concept for streamlining, it effectively stopped spillover of GCs to India. It took me time to realize that it was the uncertainity in ROW volumes that provided spillover for backlogged countries. That's what happened in 2012 (Jan to Mar), when the EB2I dates moved to 01MAY2010 in the name of building inventory. Five years from now, most of the EB2I/EB3I applications will be on paper, while the ROW countries will be electronic. This will further slowdown the approval for EB2I/EB3I. A lot of things can happen in 5 years. However, if the past is an indication, nothing happens in the immigration law world that quickly.

[alpha0]

great we are going to see full speed processing then

Based on past statements, i assume CO took reduced USCIS capacity due to furloughs in Sep into consideration for final action dates. If (and big if) furloughs do not happen, will he reissue sep VB again to consume as many visas as possible in that case? I know this is wishful thinking but that is all i have left after these many years in queue.

[android09]

great we are going to see full speed processing then

No. This needs to be passed in the senate and it has to be signed by the President for it to be activated. Also, it does not provide funding right off the bill. Basically it says USCIS can increase premium processing fees which will generate revenue.Let's all hope the bill is signed into law.

[usvisas]

buzzing that furloughs cancelled

[idliman]

buzzing that furloughs cancelled

Thanks. Good news for people waiting for their cards. From backlog perspective, I want USCIS to issue as many GCs as possible and reduce wastage of GCs (and minuscule amount of backlog).

Hamed Aleaziz @Haleaziz of Buzzfeed has been breaking many USCIS stories. He says that Furlough is cancelled for 13K employees per Sunday email. Lets wait and see.

Edit: Link to Story

The US Immigration System Won't Come To A Halt After Massive Work Furloughs Were Canceled.

[idliman]

Watchout for new edition of I-765 form dated 08/25/2020 and expires 07/31/2022. Old forms are no longer being accepted.

Usually USCIS will give a 3-6 month grace period. The grace period has been completely eliminated. Even the public is notified only a week or less before these forms go into effect. Anyone filing anything, please check the USCIS website before you download the form and before you mail the forms.

USCIS is acting like a professor giving sudden pop quizzes with a lot of trick questions to the students and saying the grades are fully dependent only on the pop quiz.

[android09]

Thanks. Good news for people waiting for their cards. From backlog perspective, I want USCIS to issue as many GCs as possible and reduce wastage of GCs (and minuscule amount of backlog).

Hamed Aleaziz @Haleaziz of Buzzfeed has been breaking many USCIS stories. He says that Furlough is cancelled for 13K employees per Sunday email. Lets wait and see.

Agreed about issuing max green cards however, I do not anticipate drastic movements. CO will move things slowly and carefully and try and see if ROW demand is created. If at all, he will try to keep major movements in the last few months of 2021, then the game will be to waste green cards like this year.

[EB2IndSep09]

Agreed about issuing max green cards however, I do not anticipate drastic movements. CO will move things slowly and carefully and try and see if ROW demand is created. If at all, he will try to keep major movements in the last few months of 2021, then the game will be to waste green cards like this year.

Major movements can happen at both starting and ending of the year. The category in which the movement occurs are decided by the consumption and other influencing factors like spillover and porting.
For example, FA Dates moved only few days as I recollect 4-5 days for EB2 and 3 and 1/2 years for EB3, in last October. This year the expectation is EB2 should catch up with EB3 at least on FA, thanks to spillover.
Oct '20 DFF will drive how 2021 is going to unfold for the FA dates of EB category. If there is no significant movement in Oct 2020 VB for DFF (in my opinion they should move into Q1 2010 for EB2 and Q2/Q3 for EB3), then we all must think that CO did not recover from 2012 trauma.

[alpha0]

Does anyone else also think USCIS purposefully dealyed the cancellation of furloughs till last week of August? Just so that CO uses reduced capacity to move FAD in Sep VB. Why can't they cancel furloughs in first week of August itself? It is not like all of a sudden they got lot of revenue in last 7 days.

[idliman]

Does anyone else also think USCIS purposefully dealyed the cancellation of furloughs till last week of August? Just so that CO uses reduced capacity to move FAD in Sep VB. Why can't they cancel furloughs in first week of August itself? It is not like all of a sudden they got lot of revenue in last 7 days.

I listened partially to the NPR Fresh Air episode about Stephen Miller. Some of things about him I already knew about. He single-handedly controls DT's immigration policy and immigration. Over the last 4 years, his powers have grown exponentially. When Rick Scott put the hold on S386, I believe he was in a corner in Senate. He has extreme anti-immigration views and can pickup the phone and do anything. The main platform for reelection of DT in 2020 is anti-immigration and another one is anti-China. I would not be surprised if he is behind everything. He is crazy but he is not ustable. I believe many of things that CO is doing (orders from political appointees or otherwise) are based on instructions provided to him. You can call this my conspiracy theory.

As an independent (neutral), I believe if there are four more years of DT & Stephen Miller, kiss goodbye to spillover. It will only exist on paper. May be 2009/2010 will clear at the end of 2024. Sorry for the fear-mongering on this issue. Many people don't realize how bad it will get.

[H1b2006]

hey good news then. Will this also helps the Perm prevailing wage current determinations timelines of 4 months to come down to 1 month?

[idliman]

hey good news then. Will this also helps the Perm prevailing wage current determinations timelines of 4 months to come down to 1 month?

Boss: Those are decided and approved by Department of Labor (DOL). It does not come under DHS.

[EB2IndSep09]

Does anyone else also think USCIS purposefully dealyed the cancellation of furloughs till last week of August? Just so that CO uses reduced capacity to move FAD in Sep VB. Why can't they cancel furloughs in first week of August itself? It is not like all of a sudden they got lot of revenue in last 7 days.

Where is the drama my friend if they cancel it in the first week of August. This is a poorly orchestrated play which doesn't need an intellectual to question and shatter.
Basically the agency wanted to increase the costs to a ridiculous heights and took covid situation as an excuse

On a serious note this might not be an end as USCIS Director's email quotes ...
"The agency is still projecting a budget shortfall heading into fiscal year 2021, which starts in October.."
"Although our situation has temporarily improved due to a modest increase in revenues, Congress must act on a long-term fix that will provide the necessary financial assistance to sustain the agency,"

[longwaitgigu]

I listened partially to the NPR Fresh Air episode about Stephen Miller. Some of things about him I already knew about. He single-handedly controls DT's immigration policy and immigration. Over the last 4 years, his powers have grown exponentially. When Rick Scott put the hold on S386, I believe he was in a corner in Senate. He has extreme anti-immigration views and can pickup the phone and do anything. The main platform for reelection of DT in 2020 is anti-immigration and another one is anti-China. I would not be surprised if he is behind everything. He is crazy but he is not ustable. I believe many of things that CO is doing (orders from political appointees or otherwise) are based on instructions provided to him. You can call this my conspiracy theory.

As an independent (neutral), I believe if there are four more years of DT & Stephen Miller, kiss goodbye to spillover. It will only exist on paper. May be 2009/2010 will clear at the end of 2024. Sorry for the fear-mongering on this issue. Many people don't realize how bad it will get.

Is it really possible for CO and trump administration to nullify the spillover without legislation passing through Congress
I understand processing capacity of uscis will be the excuse from now till the covaid ends, but wouldn't it be smart enough to move DF queue to generate revenue. Trump administration and Stephen miller more likely hate asylum seekers and FB immigrants. But I do understand the rhetoric behind indians being highly paid and be the CEO of most tech companies.
That could be fear mongering too as browns r not cheap labor as whites always wanted them to be

[idliman]

Is it really possible for CO and trump administration to nullify the spillover without legislation passing through Congress
I understand processing capacity of uscis will be the excuse from now till the covaid ends, but wouldn't it be smart enough to move DF queue to generate revenue. Trump administration and Stephen miller more likely hate asylum seekers and FB immigrants. But I do understand the rhetoric behind indians being highly paid and be the CEO of most tech companies.
That could be fear mongering too as browns r not cheap labor as whites always wanted them to be

It is not openly possible. In 2020 & 2021 they have the perfect excuse of COVID. They can find something else in other years. It is the intent that matters. Needless to say the current admin has utter disregard for past precedence and ethics.

[qesehmk]

The law doesn't prescribe a lower limit on immigration that must be met. So if the agencies give out ZERO green cards; that wouldn't be a violation of any law.

In fact this is the very reason why in family category over 100k were unused this year without any problem.

Can an anti-immigrant administration ask agencies to stop issuing visas? It's technically possible but unlikely IMHO because every year 1M new immigrants add approximately 1% to GDP growth. Immigration is not just a political thing - it is a strategic goal of United States. It's something that makes US stronger.

[H1b2006]

i changed my employer recently new emp initiated perm, in eb3 currently in prewailing wage. hence my question and i got the answer. thanks

[vyruss]

Do they apply the 100k SO immediately? What percentage will go to EB2 and EB3 I? If everything holds good, is a substantial movement deep into 2010 or 2011 possible?